427 resultados para Failure Prediction
Resumo:
The axial coefficients of thermal expansion (CTE) of various carbon nanotubes (CNTs), i.e., single-wall carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs), and some multi-wall carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs), were predicted using molecular dynamics (MDs) simulations. The effects of two parameters, i.e., temperature and the CNT diameter, on CTE were investigated extensively. For all SWCNTs and MWCNTs, the obtained results clearly revealed that within a wide low temperature range, their axial CTEs are negative. As the diameter of CNTs decreases, this temperature range for negative axial CTEs becomes narrow, and positive axial CTEs appear in high temperature range. It was found that the axial CTEs vary nonlinearly with the temperature, however, they decrease linearly as the CNT diameter increases. Moreover, within a wide temperature range, a set of empirical formulations was proposed for evaluating the axial CTEs of armchair and zigzag SWCNTs using the above two parameters. Finally, it was found that the absolute value of the negative axial CTE of any MWCNT is much smaller than those of its constituent SWCNTs, and the average value of the CTEs of its constituent SWCNTs. The present fundamental study is very important for understanding the thermal behaviors of CNTs in such as nanocomposite temperature sensors, or nanoelectronics devices using CNTs.
Resumo:
Background Artemisinin-combination therapy is a highly effective treatment for uncomplicated falciparum malaria but parasite recrudescence has been commonly reported following artemisinin (ART) monotherapy. The dormancy recovery hypothesis has been proposed to explain this phenomenon, which is different from the slower parasite clearance times reported as the first evidence of the development of ART resistance. Methods In this study, an existing P. falciparum infection model is modified to incorporate the hypothesis of dormancy. Published in vitro data describing the characteristics of dormant parasites is used to explore whether dormancy alone could be responsible for the high recrudescence rates observed in field studies using monotherapy. Several treatment regimens and dormancy rates were simulated to investigate the rate of clinical and parasitological failure following treatment. Results The model output indicates that following a single treatment with ART parasitological and clinical failures occur in up to 77% and 67% of simulations, respectively. These rates rapidly decline with repeated treatment and are sensitive to the assumed dormancy rate. The simulated parasitological and clinical treatment failure rates after 3 and 7 days of treatment are comparable to those reported from several field trials. Conclusions Although further studies are required to confirm dormancy in vivo, this theoretical study adds support for the hypothesis, highlighting the potential role of this parasite sub-population in treatment failure following monotherapy and reinforcing the importance of using ART in combination with other anti-malarials.
Resumo:
Background Despite the remarkable activity of artemisinin and its derivatives, monotherapy with these agents has been associated with high rates of recrudescence. The temporary arrest of the growth of ring-stage parasites (dormancy) after exposure to artemisinin drugs provides a plausible explanation for this phenomenon. Methods Ring-stage parasites of several Plasmodium falciparum lines were exposed to different doses of dihydroartemisinin (DHA) alone or in combination with mefloquine. For each regime, the proportion of recovering parasites was determined daily for 20 days. Results Parasite development was abruptly arrested after a single exposure to DHA, with some parasites being dormant for up to 20 days. Approximately 50% of dormant parasites recovered to resume growth within the first 9 days. The overall proportion of parasites recovering was dose dependent, with recovery rates ranging from 0.044% to 1.313%. Repeated treatment with DHA or with DHA in combination with mefloquine led to a delay in recovery and an ∼10-fold reduction in total recovery. Strains with different genetic backgrounds appeared to vary in their capacity to recover. Conclusions These results imply that artemisinin-induced arrest of growth occurs readily in laboratory-treated parasites and may be a key factor in P. falciparum malaria treatment failure.
Resumo:
This paper presents an event-based failure model to predict the number of failures that occur in water distribution assets. Often, such models have been based on analysis of historical failure data combined with pipe characteristics and environmental conditions. In this paper weather data have been added to the model to take into account the commonly observed seasonal variation of the failure rate. The theoretical basis of existing logistic regression models is briefly described in this paper, along with the refinements made to the model for inclusion of seasonal variation of weather. The performance of these refinements is tested using data from two Australian water authorities.
Resumo:
This paper details a statistical analysis of historical failure data, which focuses on determining the manner in which local climate affects pipe failure rates. It was found that seasonality exists in the data, indicating an affect of local climate on failure rate. Significant variation in failure rates was seen between the months of December and May, especially in February/March, whilst limited variations were seen in other months of the year. Further analysis found that failure rates were strongly correlated with minimum antecedent precipitation index and net evaporation and that climate affected failure rate by influencing soil moisture content. Interaction affects between static attributes of the pipe-environment system and local climate were also investigated.
Resumo:
This paper investigates the adverse effects of familiarity and human factors issues associated with the reliability of low-cost warning devices at level crossings. The driving simulator study featured a repetitive, low workload, monotonous driving task in which there were no failures of the level crossing (control) or prolonged or intermittent right-side failures (where the device reverts to a safe failure mode). The results of the experiment provided mixed support for the familiarity hypothesis. Four of the 23 participants collided with the train when it first appeared on trial 10 but safety margins increased from the first train to the next presentation of a train (trial 12). Contrary to expectations, the safety margins decreased with repeated right-side failure only for the intermittent condition. The limited head movement data showed that participants in the prolonged failure condition were more likely to turn their head to check for trains in the right-side failure trials than in earlier trials where there was no signal and no train. Few control participants turned their head to check for trains when no signal was presented. This research highlights the need to consider repetitive tasks and workload in experimental design and accident investigation at railway level crossings.
Learned stochastic mobility prediction for planning with control uncertainty on unstructured terrain
Resumo:
Motion planning for planetary rovers must consider control uncertainty in order to maintain the safety of the platform during navigation. Modelling such control uncertainty is difficult due to the complex interaction between the platform and its environment. In this paper, we propose a motion planning approach whereby the outcome of control actions is learned from experience and represented statistically using a Gaussian process regression model. This mobility prediction model is trained using sample executions of motion primitives on representative terrain, and predicts the future outcome of control actions on similar terrain. Using Gaussian process regression allows us to exploit its inherent measure of prediction uncertainty in planning. We integrate mobility prediction into a Markov decision process framework and use dynamic programming to construct a control policy for navigation to a goal region in a terrain map built using an on-board depth sensor. We consider both rigid terrain, consisting of uneven ground, small rocks, and non-traversable rocks, and also deformable terrain. We introduce two methods for training the mobility prediction model from either proprioceptive or exteroceptive observations, and report results from nearly 300 experimental trials using a planetary rover platform in a Mars-analogue environment. Our results validate the approach and demonstrate the value of planning under uncertainty for safe and reliable navigation.
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A nonlinear interface element modelling method is formulated for the prediction of deformation and failure of high adhesive thin layer polymer mortared masonry exhibiting failure of units and mortar. Plastic flow vectors are explicitly integrated within the implicit finite element framework instead of relying on predictor–corrector like approaches. The method is calibrated using experimental data from uniaxial compression, shear triplet and flexural beam tests. The model is validated using a thin layer mortared masonry shear wall, whose experimental datasets are reported in the literature and is used to examine the behaviour of thin layer mortared masonry under biaxial loading.
Resumo:
Cold-formed steel sections are commonly used in low-rise commercial and residential buildings. During fire events, cold-formed steel structural elements in these buildings are exposed to elevated temperatures. Hence after such events there is a need to determine the residual strength of these structural elements. However, only limited information is available in relation to the residual strength of fire exposed cold-formed steel members. This research is aimed at investigating the residual distortional buckling capacities of fire exposed cold-formed steel lipped channel sections. A series of compression tests of fire exposed, short lipped channel columns made of varying steel grades and thicknesses was undertaken in this research. Test columns were exposed to different elevated temperatures up to 800 oC. They were then allowed to cool down at ambient temperature before they were tested to failure. Suitable finite element models of tested columns were also developed and validated using test results. The residual compression capacities of tested columns were predicted using the ambient temperature cold-formed steel design rules (AS/NZS 4600, AISI S100 and Direct Strength Method). Post-fire mechanical properties obtained from a previous study were used in this study. Comparison of results showed that ambient temperature design rules for compression members can be used to predict the residual compression capacities of fire exposed short or laterally restrained cold-formed steel columns provided the maximum temperature experienced by the columns can be estimated after a fire event. Such residual capacity assessments will allow structural and fire engineers to make an accurate prediction of the safety of buildings after fire events. This paper presents the details of these experimental and numerical studies and the results.
Resumo:
Cold-formed steel members are widely used in load bearing Light gauge steel frame (LSF) wall systems with plasterboard linings on both sides. However, these thin-walled steel sections heat up quickly and lose their strength under fire conditions despite the protection provided by plasterboards. Hence there is a need for simple fire design rules to predict their load capacities and fire resistance ratings. During fire events, the LSF wall studs are subjected to non-uniform temperature distributions that cause thermal bowing, neutral axis shift and magnification effects and thus resulting in a combined axial compression and bending action on the LSF wall studs. In this research a series of full scale fire tests was conducted first to evaluate the performance of LSF wall systems with eight different wall configurations under standard fire conditions. Finite element models of LSF walls were then developed, analysed under transient and steady state conditions, and validated using full scale fire tests. Using the results from fire tests and finite element analyses, a detailed investigation was undertaken into the prediction of axial compression strength and failure times of LSF wall studs in standard fires using the available fire design rules based on Australian, American and European standards. The results from both fire tests and finite element analyses were used to investigate the ability of these fire design rules to include the complex effects of non-uniform temperature distributions and their accuracy in predicting the axial compression strengths of wall studs and the failure times. Suitable modifications were then proposed to the fire design rules. This paper presents the details of this investigation into the accuracy of using currently available fire design rules of LSF walls and the results.
Resumo:
Cold-formed steel sections are commonly used in low-rise commercial and residential buildings. During fire events, cold-formed steel structural elements in these buildings will be exposed to elevated temperatures. Hence after such events there is a need to evaluate the residual strength of these structural elements. However, only limited information is available in relation to the residual strength of fire exposed cold-formed steel sections. This means conservative decisions are often made in relation to fire exposed building structures. This research is aimed at investigating the buckling capacities of fire exposed cold-formed lipped channel steel sections. A series of compression tests of fire exposed, short lipped channel columns made of varying steel grades and thicknesses was undertaken in this research. Test columns were first exposed to different elevated temperatures up to 800 oC. They were then allowed to cool down at ambient temperatures before they were tested to failure. Similarly tensile coupon tests were also undertaken after being exposed to various elevated temperatures, from which the residual mechanical properties (yield stress and Young’s modulus) of the steels used in this study were derived. Using these mechanical properties, the residual compression capacities of tested short columns were predicted using the currently used design rules in AS/NZS 4600 and AISI cold-formed steel standards. This comparison showed that ambient temperature design rules for compression members can be used to predict the residual compression capacities of fire exposed short or laterally restrained cold-formed steel columns provided the maximum temperature experienced by the columns can be estimated after a fire event. Such residual capacity assessments will allow structural and fire engineers to make an accurate prediction of the safety of fire exposed buildings. This paper presents the details of this experimental study and the results.