Finding space and time in the West

WHENEVER I talk to my students about the requisites for writing, I always tell them that they need at least two things: space and time. Time, which we frequently describe through verbs of motion such as ‘flow’ or ‘flux’, and space, which we usually view as emptiness or the absence of matter. I.e., two dimensions, which are co-dependent, are not only features of the physical world but mental constructs that are elementary to the faculty of cognition...

Mechanism based emulation of dynamic simulation models : concept and application in hydrology

Many model-based investigation techniques, such as sensitivity analysis, optimization, and statistical inference, require a large number of model evaluations to be performed at different input and/or parameter values. This limits the application of these techniques to models that can be implemented in computationally efficient computer codes. Emulators, by providing efficient interpolation between outputs of deterministic simulation models, can considerably extend the field of applicability of such computationally demanding techniques. So far, the dominant techniques for developing emulators have been priors in the form of Gaussian stochastic processes (GASP) that were conditioned with a design data set of inputs and corresponding model outputs. In the context of dynamic models, this approach has two essential disadvantages: (i) these emulators do not consider our knowledge of the structure of the model, and (ii) they run into numerical difficulties if there are a large number of closely spaced input points as is often the case in the time dimension of dynamic models. To address both of these problems, a new concept of developing emulators for dynamic models is proposed. This concept is based on a prior that combines a simplified linear state space model of the temporal evolution of the dynamic model with Gaussian stochastic processes for the innovation terms as functions of model parameters and/or inputs. These innovation terms are intended to correct the error of the linear model at each output step. Conditioning this prior to the design data set is done by Kalman smoothing. This leads to an efficient emulator that, due to the consideration of our knowledge about dominant mechanisms built into the simulation model, can be expected to outperform purely statistical emulators at least in cases in which the design data set is small. The feasibility and potential difficulties of the proposed approach are demonstrated by the application to a simple hydrological model.

A finite volume method for solving the two-sided time-space fractional advection-dispersion equation

We present a finite volume method to solve the time-space two-sided fractional advection-dispersion equation on a one-dimensional domain. The spatial discretisation employs fractionally-shifted Grünwald formulas to discretise the Riemann-Liouville fractional derivatives at control volume faces in terms of function values at the nodes. We demonstrate how the finite volume formulation provides a natural, convenient and accurate means of discretising this equation in conservative form, compared to using a conventional finite difference approach. Results of numerical experiments are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach.

A new approach to prepare ZVI and its application in removal of Cr(VI) from aqueous solution

Zero valent iron (ZVI) was prepared by reducing natural goethite (NG-ZVI) and synthetic goethite (SG-ZVI) in hydrogen at 550 °C. XRD, TEM, FESEM/EDS and specific surface area (SSA) and pore analyser were used to characterize goethites and reduced goethites. Both NG-ZVI and SG-ZVI with a size of nanoscale to several hundreds of nanometers were obtained by reducing goethites at 550 °C. The reductive capacity of the ZVIs was assessed by removal of Cr(VI) at ambient temperature in comparison with that of commercial iron powder (CIP). The effect of contact time, initial concentration and reaction temperature on Cr(VI) removal was investigated. Furthermore, the uptake mechanism was discussed according to isotherms, thermodynamic analysis and the results of XPS. The results showed that SG-ZVI had the best reductive capacity to Cr(VI) and reduced Cr(VI) to Cr(III). The results suggest that hydrogen reduction is a good approach to prepare ZVI and this type of ZVI is potentially useful in remediating heavy metals as a material of permeable reaction barrier.

Promoting active lifestyles in young children: investigating mothers’ decisions about their child’s physical activity and screen time behaviours

Objectives Given increasing trends of obesity being noted from early in life and that active lifestyles track across time, it is important that children at a very young age be active to combat a foundation of unhealthy behaviours forming. This study investigated, within a theory of planned behaviour (TPB) framework, factors which influence mothers’ decisions about their child’s 1) adequate physical activity (PA) and 2) limited screen time behaviours. Methods Mothers (N = 162) completed a main questionnaire, via on-line or paper-based administration, which comprised standard TPB items in addition to measures of planning and background demographic variables. One week later, consenting mothers completed a follow-up telephone questionnaire which assessed the decisions they had made regarding their child’s PA and screen time behaviours during the previous week. Results Hierarchical multiple regression analyses revealed support for the predictive model, explaining an overall 73% and 78% of the variance in mothers’ intention and 38% and 53% of the variance in mothers’ decisions to ensure their child engages in adequate PA and limited screen time, respectively. Attitude and subjective norms predicted intention in both target behaviours, as did intentions with behaviour. Contrary to predictions, perceived behavioural control (PBC) in PA behaviour and planning in screen time behaviour were not significant predictors of intention, neither was PBC a predictor of either behaviour. Conclusions The findings illustrate the various roles that psycho-social factors play in mothers’ decisions to ensure their child engages in active lifestyle behaviours which can help to inform future intervention programs aimed at combating very young children’s inactivity.

The impact of heatwaves on emergency department visits in Brisbane, Australia : a time series study

Introduction The acute health effects of heatwaves in a subtropical climate and their impact on emergency departments (ED) are not well known. The purpose of this study is to examine overt heat-related presentations to EDs associated with heatwaves in Brisbane. Methods Data were obtained for the summer seasons (December to February) from 2000-2012. Heatwave events were defined as two or more successive days with daily maximum temperature >=34[degree sign]C (HWD1) or >=37[degree sign]C (HWD2). Poisson generalised additive model was used to assess the effect of heatwaves on heat-related visits (International Classification of Diseases (ICD) 10 codes T67 and X30; ICD 9 codes 992 and E900.0). Results Overall, 628 cases presented for heat-related illnesses. The presentations significantly increased on heatwave days based on HWD1 (relative risk (RR) = 4.9, 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.8, 6.3) and HWD2 (RR = 18.5, 95% CI: 12.0, 28.4). The RRs in different age groups ranged between 3-9.2 (HWD1) and 7.5-37.5 (HWD2). High acuity visits significantly increased based on HWD1 (RR = 4.7, 95% CI: 2.3, 9.6) and HWD2 (RR = 81.7, 95% CI: 21.5, 310.0). Average length of stay in ED significantly increased by >1 hour (HWD1) and >2 hours (HWD2). Conclusions Heatwaves significantly increase ED visits and workload even in a subtropical climate. The degree of impact is directly related to the extent of temperature increases and varies by socio-demographic characteristics of the patients. Heatwave action plans should be tailored according to the population needs and level of vulnerability. EDs should have plans to increase their surge capacity during heatwaves.

Wasting Time? Art, Science and New Experience. Examining the Artwork, Know more (House of Commons)

Today the future is travelling rapidly towards us, shaped by all that which we have historically thrown into it. Much of what we have designed for our world over the ages, and much of what we continue to embrace in the pursuit of mainstream economic, cultural and social imperatives, embodies unacknowledged ‘time debts’. Every decision we make today has the potential to ‘give time to’, or take ‘time away’ from that future. This idea that ‘everything‘ inherently embodies ‘future time left’ is underlined by design futurist Tony Fry when he describes how we so often ‘waste’ or ‘take away’ ‘future time’. “In our endeavours to sustain ourselves in the short term we collectively act in destructive ways towards the very things we and all other beings fundamentally depend upon”

Time- vs. frequency-domain identification of parametric radiation force models for marine structures at zero speed

The dynamics describing the motion response of a marine structure in waves can be represented within a linear framework by the Cummins Equation. This equation contains a convolution term that represents the component of the radiation forces associated with fluid memory effects. Several methods have been proposed in the literature for the identification of parametric models to approximate and replace this convolution term. This replacement can facilitate the model implementation in simulators and the analysis of motion control designs. Some of the reported identification methods consider the problem in the time domain while other methods consider the problem in the frequency domain. This paper compares the application of these identification methods. The comparison is based not only on the quality of the estimated models, but also on the ease of implementation, ease of use, and the flexibility of the identification method to incorporate prior information related to the model being identified. To illustrate the main points arising from the comparison, a particular example based on the coupled vertical motion of a modern containership vessel is presented.

Crunch time : how did the students perform?

Two newspaper numbers games based on simple arithmetic relationships are discussed. One is rather trivial, but very useful as an introduction to the second, whose potential to give students of elementary algebra practice in semi ad-hoc reasoning and to build general arithmetic reasoning skills was explored theoretically in an earlier paper. Preliminary results on the effectiveness of this general approach are presented, with student performance and feedback on an assignment task and formal examination included, and recommendations for future work.

Long time, no see?

Long Time, No See? is a crowd-sourced project that asks people to reflect upon what kind of long term future they would each like to promote. It is an evolving experiment in the social practice of ‘everyday futuring’. To participate download the Long Time, No See? IPhone APP that gently guides you during a short walk, encouraging you to experience new places, sensations and thoughts in your locality. At nine stages along that journey you donate ‘field notes’ as images, texts, sounds and ‘themes’, offering a unique opportunity to reveal possible pathways towards more sustaining futures. The APP records the shape of your walk on the ground and draws an island on the ‘map’ shown here, populated by your nine sets of responses. The themes you have chosen then connect your island into an evolving ‘world’ map of connections and possibilities, which you can then explore at your leisure. In these ways, Long Time, No See? doesn’t ask you for lofty visions or ask you to lay out a program of action, but instead asks you to consider what is around you today, steering your eyes, ears and embodied experiences towards new futures that demonstrate your ‘care’ for what comes after you. Please use the contribute tab below to learn how to add your voice! PARTICIPATE To contribute 1: Download the APP {bit.do/ltns}, iPhone/iPad is supported right now. 2: Register a ‘walker name’. 3: Take a leisurely walk (30 -60mins) and contribute image, text, sound and themes when asked. 4: Wait while we verify and upload your walk (allow about 24 hours) 5: View your contributions via your ‘walker name’ and discover how it relates to others, here at the Cube and at www.long-time-no-see.org. NB You can undertake each walk over more than one day if that suits. You may even drive, cycle or move by other modes. DOWNLOAD THE APP: bit.do/ltns (insert QI Code) FIND OUT MORE www.long-time-no-see.org

Study on dynamic system optimum assignment to establish marginal time equilibrium

Several analytical methods for Dynamic System Optimum (DSO) assignment have been proposed but they are basically classified into two kinds. This chapter attempts to establish DSO by equilbrating the path dynamic marginal time (DMT). The authors analyze the path DMT for a single path with tandem bottlenecks and showed that the path DMT is not the simple summation of DMT associated with each bottleneck along the path. Next, the authors examined the DMT of several paths passing through a common bottleneck. It is shown that the externality at the bottleneck is shared by the paths in proportion to their demand from the current time until the queue vanishes. This share of the externality is caused by the departure rate shift under first in first out (FIFO) and the externality propagates to the downstream bottlenecks. However, the externalities propagates to the downstream are calculated out if downstream bottlenecks exist. Therefore, the authors concluded that the path DMT can be evaluated without considering the propagation of the externalities, but just as in the evaluation of the path DMT for a single path passing through a series of bottlenecks between the origin and destination. Based on the DMT analysis, the authors finally proposed a heuristic solution algorithm and verified it by comparing the numerical solution with the analytical one.

Intervening to reduce workplace sitting time : how and when do changes to sitting time occur?

Objective To investigate how and when changes in workplace sitting time occurred following a workplace intervention to inform evaluation of intervention success. Method The 4-week Stand Up Comcare study (June–September 2011) aimed to reduce workplace sitting time via regularly interrupting and replacing sitting time throughout the day. Activity monitor (activPAL3) workplace data from control (n=22) and intervention participants (n=21) were analysed. Differences in the number and usual duration of sitting bouts were used to evaluate how change occurred. To examine when change occurred, intervention effects were compared by hour since starting work and hour of the workday. Change in workplace activity (sitting, standing, stepping) was examined to further inform alignment with intervention messages. Individual variability was examined in how and when the change occurred. Results Overall, behavioural changes aligned with intervention aims. All intervention participants reduced total workplace sitting time, though there was wide individual variability observed (range −29 to −262 min per 8 h workday). On average, intervention participants reduced number of sitting bouts (−4.6 bouts (95% CI −10.1 to 1.0), p=0.106) and usual sitting bout duration (−5.6 min (95% CI −9.8 to −1.4, p=0.011)) relative to controls. Sitting time reductions were observed across the workday, though intervention effects varied by hour of the day (p=0.015). The intervention group successfully adopted the Stand Up and Sit Less intervention messages across the day. Conclusion These analyses confirmed that this workplace intervention successfully modified sitting behaviour as intended (ie, fewer and shorter sitting bouts, with changes occurring throughout the day).

Traffic incident clearance time and arrival time prediction based on hazard models

Accurate prediction of incident duration is not only important information of Traffic Incident Management System, but also an ffective input for travel time prediction. In this paper, the hazard based prediction odels are developed for both incident clearance time and arrival time. The data are obtained from the Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads’ STREAMS Incident Management System (SIMS) for one year ending in November 2010. The best fitting distributions are drawn for both clearance and arrival time for 3 types of incident: crash, stationary vehicle, and hazard. The results show that Gamma, Log-logistic, and Weibull are the best fit for crash, stationary vehicle, and hazard incident, respectively. The obvious impact factors are given for crash clearance time and arrival time. The quantitative influences for crash and hazard incident are presented for both clearance and arrival. The model accuracy is analyzed at the end.

Changes in ocular biometrics and refraction during near work in downward gaze over time

PURPOSE To investigate changes in the characteristics of the corneal optics, total optics, anterior biometrics and axial length of the eye during a near task, in downward gaze, over 10 min. METHODS Ten emmetropes (mean - 0.14 ± 0.24 DS) and 10 myopes (mean - 2.26 ± 1.42 DS) aged from 18 to 30 years were recruited. To measure ocular biometrics and corneal topography in downward gaze, an optical biometer (Lenstar LS900) and a rotating Scheimpflug camera (Pentacam HR) were inclined on a custom built, height and tilt adjustable table. The total optics of the eye were measured in downward gaze with binocular fixation using a modified Shack-Hartmann wavefront sensor. Initially, subjects performed a distance viewing task at primary gaze for 10 min to provide a "wash-out" period for prior visual tasks. A distance task (watching video at 6 m) in downward gaze (25°) and a near task (watching video on a portable LCD screen with 2.5 D accommodation demand) in primary gaze and 25°downward gaze were then carried out, each for 10 min in a randomized order. During measurements, in dichoptic view, a Maltese cross was fixated with the right (untested) eye and the instrument’s fixation target was fixated with the subject’s tested left eye. Immediately after (0 min), 5 and 10 min from the commencement of each trial, measurements of ocular parameters were acquired in downward gaze. RESULTS Axial length exhibited a significant increase with downward gaze and accommodation over time (p<0.05). The greatest axial elongation was observed in downward gaze with 2.5 D accommodation after 10 min (mean change from baseline 23±3 µm). Downward gaze also caused greater changes in anterior chamber depth (ACD) and lens thickness (LT) with accommodation (ACD mean change -163±12µm at 10 min; LT mean change 173±17 µm at 10 min) compared to primary gaze with accommodation (ACD mean change -138±12µm at 10 min; LT mean change 131±15 µm at 10 min). Both corneal power and total ocular power changed by a small but significant amount with downward gaze (p<0.05), resulting in a myopic shift (~0.10 D) in the spherical power of the eye compared with primary gaze. CONCLUSION The axial length, anterior biometrics and ocular refraction change significantly with accommodation in downward gaze as a function of time. These findings provide new insights into the optical and bio-mechanical changes of the eye during typical near tasks.

Correlation between extent of osteolytic damage and metastatic burden of human breast cancer metastasis in nude mice : real-time PCR quantitation

Orthotopic or intracardiac injection of human breast cancer cell lines into immunocompromised mice allows study of the molecular basis of breast cancer metastasis. We have established a quantitative real-time PCR approach to analyze metastatic spread of human breast cancer cells inoculated into nude mice via these routes. We employed MDA-MB-231 human breast cancer cells genetically tagged with a bacterial β-galactosidase (Lac-Z) retroviral vector, enabling their detection by TaqMan® real-time PCR. PCR detection was linear, specific, more sensitive than conventional PCR, and could be used to directly quantitate metastatic burden in bone and soft organs. Attesting to the sensitivity and specificity of the PCR detection strategy, as few as several hundred metastatic MDA-MB-231 cells were detectable in 100 μm segments of paraffin-embedded lung tissue, and only in samples adjacent to sections that scored positive by histological detection. Moreover, the measured real-time PCR metastatic burden in the bone environment (mouse hind-limbs, n = 48) displayed a high correlation to the degree of osteolytic damage observed by high resolution X-ray analysis (r2 = 0.972). Such a direct linear relationship to tumor burden and bone damage substantiates the so-called 'vicious cycle' hypothesis in which metastatic tumor cells promote the release of factors from the bone which continue to stimulate the tumor cells. The technique provides a useful tool for molecular and cellular analysis of human breast cancer metastasis to bone and soft organs, can easily be extended to other cell/marker/organ systems, and should also find application in preclinical assessment of anti-metastatic modalities.