Distinguishing between mean-field, moment dynamics and stochastic descriptions of birth-death-movement processes

Mathematical descriptions of birth–death–movement processes are often calibrated to measurements from cell biology experiments to quantify tissue growth rates. Here we describe and analyze a discrete model of a birth–death-movement process applied to a typical two–dimensional cell biology experiment. We present three different descriptions of the system: (i) a standard mean–field description which neglects correlation effects and clustering; (ii) a moment dynamics description which approximately incorporates correlation and clustering effects, and; (iii) averaged data from repeated discrete simulations which directly incorporates correlation and clustering effects. Comparing these three descriptions indicates that the mean–field and moment dynamics approaches are valid only for certain parameter regimes, and that both these descriptions fail to make accurate predictions of the system for sufficiently fast birth and death rates where the effects of spatial correlations and clustering are sufficiently strong. Without any method to distinguish between the parameter regimes where these three descriptions are valid, it is possible that either the mean–field or moment dynamics model could be calibrated to experimental data under inappropriate conditions, leading to errors in parameter estimation. In this work we demonstrate that a simple measurement of agent clustering and correlation, based on coordination number data, provides an indirect measure of agent correlation and clustering effects, and can therefore be used to make a distinction between the validity of the different descriptions of the birth–death–movement process.

Ultimate flexural limit states analysis of prestressed concrete sleeper

Railway is one of the most important, reliable and widely used means of transportation, carrying freight, passengers, minerals, grains, etc. Thus, research on railway tracks is extremely important for the development of railway engineering and technologies. The safe operation of a railway track is based on the railway track structure that includes rails, fasteners, pads, sleepers, ballast, subballast and formation. Sleepers are very important components of the entire structure and may be made of timber, concrete, steel or synthetic materials. Concrete sleepers were first installed around the middle of last century and currently are installed in great numbers around the world. Consequently, the design of concrete sleepers has a direct impact on the safe operation of railways. The "permissible stress" method is currently most commonly used to design sleepers. However, the permissible stress principle does not consider the ultimate strength of materials, probabilities of actual loads, and the risks associated with failure, all of which could lead to the conclusion of cost-ineffectiveness and over design of current prestressed concrete sleepers. Recently the limit states design method, which appeared in the last century and has been already applied in the design of buildings, bridges, etc, is proposed as a better method for the design of prestressed concrete sleepers. The limit states design has significant advantages compared to the permissible stress design, such as the utilisation of the full strength of the member, and a rational analysis of the probabilities related to sleeper strength and applied loads. This research aims to apply the ultimate limit states design to the prestressed concrete sleeper, namely to obtain the load factors of both static and dynamic loads for the ultimate limit states design equations. However, the sleepers in rail tracks require different safety levels for different types of tracks, which mean the different types of tracks have different load factors of limit states design equations. Therefore, the core tasks of this research are to find the load factors of the static component and dynamic component of loads on track and the strength reduction factor of the sleeper bending strength for the ultimate limit states design equations for four main types of tracks, i.e., heavy haul, freight, medium speed passenger and high speed passenger tracks. To find those factors, the multiple samples of static loads, dynamic loads and their distributions are needed. In the four types of tracks, the heavy haul track has the measured data from Braeside Line (A heavy haul line in Central Queensland), and the distributions of both static and dynamic loads can be found from these data. The other three types of tracks have no measured data from sites and the experimental data are hardly available. In order to generate the data samples and obtain their distributions, the computer based simulations were employed and assumed the wheel-track impacts as induced by different sizes of wheel flats. A valid simulation package named DTrack was firstly employed to generate the dynamic loads for the freight and medium speed passenger tracks. However, DTrack is only valid for the tracks which carry low or medium speed vehicles. Therefore, a 3-D finite element (FE) model was then established for the wheel-track impact analysis of the high speed track. This FE model has been validated by comparing its simulation results with the DTrack simulation results, and with the results from traditional theoretical calculations based on the case of heavy haul track. Furthermore, the dynamic load data of the high speed track were obtained from the FE model and the distributions of both static and dynamic loads were extracted accordingly. All derived distributions of loads were fitted by appropriate functions. Through extrapolating those distributions, the important parameters of distributions for the static load induced sleeper bending moment and the extreme wheel-rail impact force induced sleeper dynamic bending moments and finally, the load factors, were obtained. Eventually, the load factors were obtained by the limit states design calibration based on reliability analyses with the derived distributions. After that, a sensitivity analysis was performed and the reliability of the achieved limit states design equations was confirmed. It has been found that the limit states design can be effectively applied to railway concrete sleepers. This research significantly contributes to railway engineering and the track safety area. It helps to decrease the failure and risks of track structure and accidents; better determines the load range for existing sleepers in track; better rates the strength of concrete sleepers to support bigger impact and loads on railway track; increases the reliability of the concrete sleepers and hugely saves investments on railway industries. Based on this research, many other bodies of research can be promoted in the future. Firstly, it has been found that the 3-D FE model is suitable for the study of track loadings and track structure vibrations. Secondly, the equations for serviceability and damageability limit states can be developed based on the concepts of limit states design equations of concrete sleepers obtained in this research, which are for the ultimate limit states.

A simplified approach for calculating the moments of action for linear reaction-diffusion equations

The mean action time is the mean of a probability density function that can be interpreted as a critical time, which is a finite estimate of the time taken for the transient solution of a reaction-diffusion equation to effectively reach steady state. For high-variance distributions, the mean action time under-approximates the critical time since it neglects to account for the spread about the mean. We can improve our estimate of the critical time by calculating the higher moments of the probability density function, called the moments of action, which provide additional information regarding the spread about the mean. Existing methods for calculating the nth moment of action require the solution of n nonhomogeneous boundary value problems which can be difficult and tedious to solve exactly. Here we present a simplified approach using Laplace transforms which allows us to calculate the nth moment of action without solving this family of boundary value problems and also without solving for the transient solution of the underlying reaction-diffusion problem. We demonstrate the generality of our method by calculating exact expressions for the moments of action for three problems from the biophysics literature. While the first problem we consider can be solved using existing methods, the second problem, which is readily solved using our approach, is intractable using previous techniques. The third problem illustrates how the Laplace transform approach can be used to study coupled linear reaction-diffusion equations.

A cross-discipline and collaborative approach to identifying the predictors of environmentally friendly and health protective behaviour

Background. As a society, our interaction with the environment is having a negative impact on human health. For example, an increase in car use for short trips, over walking or cycling, has contributed to an increase in obesity, diabetes and poor heart health and also contributes to pollution, which is associated with asthma and other respiratory diseases. In order to change the nature of that interaction, to be more positive and healthy, it is recommended that individuals adopt a range of environmentally friendly behaviours (such as walking for transport and reducing the use of plastics). Effective interventions aimed at increasing such behaviours will need to be evidence based and there is a need for the rapid communication of information from the point of research, into policy and practice. Further, a number of health disciplines, including psychology and public health, share a common mission to promote health and well-being. Therefore, the objective of this project is to take a cross-discipline and collaborative approach to reveal psychological mechanisms driving environmentally friendly behaviour. This objective is further divided into three broad aims, the first of which is to take a cross-discipline and collaborative approach to research. The second aim is to explore and identify the salient beliefs which most strongly predict environmentally friendly behaviour. The third aim is to build an augmented model to explain environmentally friendly behaviour. The thesis builds on the understanding that an interdisciplinary collaborative approach will facilitate the rapid transfer of knowledge to inform behaviour change interventions. Methods. The application of this approach involved two surveys which explored the psycho-social predictors of environmentally friendly behaviour. Following a qualitative pilot study, and in collaboration with an expert panel comprising academics, industry professionals and government representatives, a self-administered, Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) based, mail survey was distributed to a random sample of 3000 residents of Brisbane and Moreton Bay Region (Queensland, Australia). This survey explored specific beliefs including attitudes, norms, perceived control, intention and behaviour, as well as environmental altruism and green identity, in relation to walking for transport and switching off lights when not in use. Following analysis of the mail survey data and based on feedback from participants and key stakeholders, an internet survey was employed (N=451) to explore two additional behaviours, switching off appliances at the wall when not in use, and shopping with reusable bags. This work is presented as a series of interrelated publications which address each of the research aims. Presentation of Findings. Chapter five of this thesis consists of a published paper which addresses the first aim of the research and outlines the collaborative and multidisciplinary approach employed in the mail survey. The paper argued that forging alliances with those who are in a position to immediately utilise the findings of research has the potential to improve the quality and timely communication of research. Illustrating this timely communication, Chapter six comprises a report presented to Moreton Bay Regional Council (MBRC). This report addresses aim's one and two. The report contains a summary of participation in a range of environmentally friendly behaviours and identifies the beliefs which most strongly predicted walking for transport and switching off lights (from the mail survey). These salient beliefs were then recommended as targets for interventions and included: participants believing that they might save money; that their neighbours also switch off lights; that it would be inconvenient to walk for transport and that their closest friend also walks for transport. Chapter seven also addresses the second aim and presents a published conference paper in which the salient beliefs predicting the four specified behaviours (from both surveys) are identified and potential applications for intervention are discussed. Again, a range of TPB based beliefs, including descriptive normative beliefs, were predictive of environmentally friendly behaviour. This paper was also provided to MBRC, along with recommendations for applying the findings. For example, as descriptive normative beliefs were consistently correlated with environmentally friendly behaviour, local councils could engage in marketing and interventions (workshops, letter box drops, internet promotions) which encourage parents and friends to model, rather than simply encourage, environmentally friendly behaviour. The final two papers, presented in Chapters eight and nine, addresses the third aim of the project. These papers each present two behaviours together to inform a TPB based theoretical model with which to predict environmentally friendly behaviour. A generalised model is presented, which is found to predict the four specific behaviours under investigation. The role of demographics was explored across each of the behaviour specific models. It was found that some behaviour's differ by age, gender, income or education. In particular, adjusted models predicted more of the variance in walking for transport amongst younger participants and females. Adjusted models predicted more variance in switching off lights amongst those with a bachelor degree or higher and predicted more variance in switching off appliances amongst those on a higher income. Adjusted models predicted more variance in shopping with reusable bags for males, people 40 years or older, those on a higher income and those with a bachelor degree or higher. However, model structure and general predictability was relatively consistent overall. The models provide a general theoretical framework from which to better understand the motives and predictors of environmentally friendly behaviour. Conclusion. This research has provided an example of the benefits of a collaborative interdisciplinary approach. It has identified a number of salient beliefs which can be targeted for social marketing campaigns and educational initiatives; and these findings, along with recommendations, have been passed on to a local council to be used as part of their ongoing community engagement programs. Finally, the research has informed a practical model, as well as behaviour specific models, for predicting sustainable living behaviours. Such models can highlight important core constructs from which targeted interventions can be designed. Therefore, this research represents an important step in undertaking collaborative approaches to improving population health through human-environment interactions.

Measurement as legitimacy versus legitimacy of measures : Performance evaluation of social enterprise

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to review the growing emphasis on quantifiable performance measures such as social return on investment (SROI) in third sector organisations – specifically, social enterprise – through a legitimacy theory lens. It then examines what social enterprises value (i.e. consider important) in terms of performance evaluation, using a case study approach. Design/methodology/approach Case studies involving interviews, documentary analysis, and observation, of three social enterprises at different life-cycle stages with different funding structures, were constructed to consider “what measures matter” from a practitioner's perspective. Findings Findings highlight a priority on quality outcomes and impacts in primarily qualitative terms to evaluate performance. Further, there is a noticeable lack of emphasis on financial measures other than basic access to financial resources to continue pursuing social goals. Social implications The practical challenges faced by social enterprises – many of which are small to medium sized – in evaluating performance and by implication organisational legitimacy are contrasted with measures such as SROI which are resource intensive and have inherent methodological limitations. Hence, findings suggest the limited and valuable resources of social enterprises would be better allocated towards documenting the actual outcomes and impacts as a first step, in order to evaluate social and financial performance in terms appropriate to each objective, in order to demonstrate organisational legitimacy. Originality/value Findings distinguish between processes which may hold symbolic legitimacy for select stakeholder groups, and processes which hold substantive, cognitive legitimacy for stakeholders more broadly, in the under-researched context of social enterprise.

Economic burden of malignant neoplasms in Shandong province [山东省恶性肿瘤经济负担分析]

Objective: To evaluate the economic burden of malignant neoplasms in Shandong province in order to provide scientific evidence for policy-making. Methods: The main sources for this study were the data from the third sampling survey of death cause in 2006 and cancer prevalence survey in 2007 in Shandong province. The direct medical cost was calculated based on the survey data. The indirect cost due to mortality and morbidity were estimated with human capital approach based on the data of disability-adjusted life years derived from the two surveys and gross domestic product (GDP) data. The total economic burden was the sum of direct medical cost and indirect cost. The uncertainty analysis was conducted according to the methodology in global burden of disease study. Results: The total cost of cancer in Shandong province in 2006 estimated was 18 057 million Yuan RMB (95% confidence interval:16 817 － 19 393 million), which accounted for 0. 83% of the total GDP. The direct medical cost，indirect mortality cost and indirect morbidity cost accounted for 17.28%, 78.53%, and 4.20% of total economic burden of malignant neoplasms, respectively. Liver，lung and stomach cancer were the top three tumors with heavier economic burden, with accounted for more than one half (57. 83%) of the total economic burden of all cancers. The uncertainty of total burden estimated was around ± 7%, which mainly derived from the uncertainty of indirect economic burden. Conclusion: The influence of cancers on social economy is dominated by the loss of productivity, especially by the productivity loss due to premature death. Liver, lung and stomach cancer are the major cancers for disease control and prevention in Shandong province. Abstract in Chinese 目的 评价山东省恶性肿瘤经济负担,为卫生决策提供科学依据. 方法 以2006年山东省第3次死因回顾抽样凋查资料和2007年山东省恶性肿瘤现患状况抽样调查资料为基础,测算全省直接医疗成本;采用人力资本法测算死亡间接负担和伤残间接负担;参考全球疾病负担研究的方法对测算结果的不确定性进行分析. 结果 2006年山东省因恶性肿瘤导致的总经济负担为180.57亿元(95%CI=16 817～19 393),占全省GDP总量的0.83%,其中直接医疗成本占总负担的17.28%,死亡造成的间接经济负担占78.53%,伤残所致间接经济负担占4.20%;肝癌、肺癌和胃癌为山东省经济负担最重的3种恶性肿瘤,总经济负担合计占全部恶性肿瘤的57.83%;总经济负担估计结果的不确定性范围在±7%左右,主要取决于间接经济负担的不确定性. 结论 恶性肿瘤对社会经济的影响主要通过生产力的损失产生作用,并以死亡所致生产力损失为主;肝癌、肺癌和胃癌应是山东省恶性肿瘤预防控制的重点.

Higher-order aberrations and anisometropia

Purpose/aim Myopia incidence is increasing around the world. Myopisation is considered to be caused by a variety of factors. One consideration is whether higher-order aberrations (HOA) influence myopisation. More knowledge of optics in anisometropic eyes might give further insight into the development of refractive error. Materials and methods To analyse the possible influence of HOA on refractive error development, we compared HOA between anisometropes and isometropes. We analysed HOA up to the 4th order for both eyes of 20 anisometropes (mean age: 43 ± 17 years) and 20 isometropes (mean age: 33 ±17 years). HOA were measured with the Shack-Hartman i.Profiler (Carl Zeiss, Germany) and were recalculated for a 4 mm pupil. Mean spherical equivalent (MSE) was based on the subjective refraction. Anisometropia was defined as ≥1D interocular difference in MSE. The mean absolute differences between right and left eyes in spherical equivalent were 0.28 ± 0.21 D in the isometropic group and 2.81 ± 2.04 D in the anisometropic group. Interocular differences in HOA were compared with the interocular difference in MSE using correlations. Results For isometropes oblique trefoil, vertical coma, horizontal coma and spherical aberration showed significant correlations between the two eyes. In anisometropes all analysed higher-order aberrations correlated significantly between the two eyes except oblique secondary astigmatism and secondary astigmatism. When analysing anisometropes and isometropes separately, no significant correlations were found between interocular differences of higher-order aberrations and MSE. For isometropes and anisometropes combined, tetrafoil correlated significantly with MSE in left eyes. Conclusions The present study could not show that interocular differences of higher-order aberrations increase with increasing interocular difference in MSE.

Parents’ perception about children’s academic stress and child care related issues

The present study intends to understand the parents' perception about children's academic stress and child care related issues. A group of 139 parents, 68 fathers and 71 mothers, participated in the study voluntarily and they were selected following convenience sampling technique. In order to achieve the objective of the study, a specially designed semi-structured questionnaire was used. Findings disclosed that about one-third of the fathers (29.4%) and one-tenth of the mothers (9.9%) frankly admitted that they could not provide quality care and guidance to their children and in this regard significant difference was observed between fathers and mothers (p<.05). More than four-fifth of the parents stated that they should be friendly with their children so that children feel comfortable to share their personal issues with them. More than one-fifth fathers (27.9%) and one-fourth mothers (16.9%) applied corporal punishment as they believed it is necessary to discipline them and/or for better academic performance.

Estimation of the burden of malignant neoplasms by DALYs in Shandong Province [应用伤残调整寿命年测量山东省恶性肿瘤疾病负担的研究]

Objective: To evaluate the burden of malignant neoplasms in Shandong Province in order to provide scientific evidence for policy-making. Methods: The main data for this study were from Shandong third cause of death sampling survey in 2006 and Shandong 2007 cancer prevalence survey. YLLs, YLDs, DALYs and disability weights of each type of cancers were calculated according to the global burdens of disease （GBD） methodology. The direct method was used to estimate YLDs. The uncertainty analysis was conducted following the methodology in GBD study. Results: The total cancers burden in Shandong population was 1 383 thousands DALYs. Lung cancer, liver cancer, stomach cancer and esophagus cancer were the top four cancers with the highest health burden. The burden of the four major cancers together accounted for 71.45% of the total burden of all cancers. 95% of the total burden of malignant tumors was caused by premature death, and only 5.26% of the total cancer burden was due to disability. The uncertainty of total burden estimate was around±11%， the uncertainty of YLDs was bigger than that of YLLs. Conclusion: The health burden due to cancers in Shandong population is heavier than that of the national average level. Liver cancer, lung cancer and stomach cancer should be the major cancers for disease control and prevention in Shandong.

A critical realist perspective of enterprise architecture evolution : preliminary findings

This paper investigates how Enterprise Architecture (EA) evolves due to emerging trends. It specifically explores how EA integrates the Service-oriented Architecture (SOA). Archer’s Morphogenetic theory is used as an analytical approach to distinguish the architectural conditions under which SOA is introduced, to study the relationships between these conditions and SOA introduction, and to reflect on EA evolution (elaborations) that then take place. The paper focuses on reasons for why EA evolution could take place, or not and what architectural changes could happen due to SOA integration. The research builds on sound theoretical foundations to discuss EA evolution in a field that often lacks a solid theoretical groundwork. Specifically, it proposes that critical realism, using the morphogenetic theory, can provide a useful theoretical foundation to study enterprise architecture (EA) evolution. The initial results of a literature review (a-priori model) were extended using explorative interviews. The findings of this study are threefold. First, there are five different levels of EA-SOA integration outcomes. Second, a mature EA, flexible and well-defined EA framework and comprehensive objectives of EA improve the integration outcomes. Third, the analytical separation using Archer’s theory is helpful in order to understand how these different integration outcomes are generated.

Service-oriented architecture integration within enterprise architecture : a-priori model

This paper proposes that critical realism can provide a useful theoretical foundation to study enterprise architecture (EA) evolution. Specifically it will investigate the practically relevant and academically challenging question of how EAs integrate the Service-oriented Architecture (SOA). Archer’s Morphogenetic theory is used as an analytical approach to distinguish the architectural conditions under which SOA is introduced, to study the relationships between these conditions and SOA introduction, and to reflect on EA evolution (elaborations) that then take place. The focus lies on the reasons why EA evolution takes place (or not) and what architectural changes happen. This paper uses the findings of a literature review to build an a-priori model informed by Archer’s theory to understand EA evolution in a field that often lacks a solid theoretical groundwork. The findings are threefold. First, EA can evolve on different levels (different integration outcomes). Second, the integration outcomes are classified into three levels: business architecture, information systems architecture and technology architecture. Third, the analytical separation using Archer’s theory is helpful in order to understand how these different integration outcomes are generated.

Soybean dwarf luteovirus contains the third variant genome type in the luteovirus group

Complementary DNAs covering the entire RNA genome of soybean dwarf luteovirus (SDV) were cloned and sequenced. Computer analysis of the 5861 nucleotide sequence revealed five major open reading frames (ORFs) possessing conservation of sequence and organisation with known luteovirus sequences. Comparative analyses of the genome structure show that SDV shares sequence homology and features of gene organisation with barley yellow dwarf virus (PAV isolate) in the 5' half of the genome, yet is more closely related to potato leafroll virus in its 3' coding regions. In addition, SDV differs from other known luteoviruses in possessing an exceptionally long 3' terminal sequence with no apparent coding capacity. We conclude from these data that the SDV genome represents a third variant genome type in the luteovirus group.

Populism, law and order and the crimes of the 1%

The article examines the evidence of endemic financial crime in the global financial crisis (GFC), the legal impunity surrounding these crimes and the popular revolt against these abuses in the financial, political and legal systems. This is set against a consideration of the development since the 1970s of a conservative politics championing de-regulation, unfettered markets, welfare cuts and harsh law and order policies. On the one hand, this led to massively increased inequality and concentrations of wealth and political power in the hands of the super-rich, effectively placing them above the law, as the GFC revealed. On the other, a greatly enlarged, more punitive criminal justice system was directed at poor and minority communities. Explanations in terms of the rise of penal populism are helpful in explaining these developments, but it is argued they adopt a limited and reductionist view of populism, failing to see the prospects for a progressive populist politics to re-direct political attention to issues of inequality and corporate and white collar criminality.

Shadow boxing with an imaginary enemy : a response to "Law and Order Blues"

In our rejoinder to Don Weatherburn's paper,"Law and Order Blues", we do not take issue with his advocacy of the need to take crime seriously and to foster a more rational approach to the problems it poses. Where differences do emerge is (1) with his claim that he is willing to do so whilst we (in our different ways) are not; and (2) on the question of what this involves. Of particular concern is the way in which his argument proceeds by a combination of simple misrepresentation of the positions it seeks to disparage, and silence concerning issues of real substance where intellectual debate and exchange would be welcome and useful. Our paper challenges, in turn, the misrepresentation of Indermaur's analysis of trends in violent crime, the misrepresentation of Hogg and Brown's Rethinking Law and Order, the misrepresentation of the findings of some of the research into the effectiveness of punitive policies and the silence on sexual assault in "Law and Order Blues". We suggest that his silence on sexual assault reflects a more widespread unwillingness to acknowledge the methodological problems that arise in the measurement of crime because such problems severely limit the extent to which confident assertions can be made about prevalence and trends.