Modelling survival data to account for model uncertainty: a single model or model averaging?

This study considered the problem of predicting survival, based on three alternative models: a single Weibull, a mixture of Weibulls and a cure model. Instead of the common procedure of choosing a single “best” model, where “best” is defined in terms of goodness of fit to the data, a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach was adopted to account for model uncertainty. This was illustrated using a case study in which the aim was the description of lymphoma cancer survival with covariates given by phenotypes and gene expression. The results of this study indicate that if the sample size is sufficiently large, one of the three models emerge as having highest probability given the data, as indicated by the goodness of fit measure; the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). However, when the sample size was reduced, no single model was revealed as “best”, suggesting that a BMA approach would be appropriate. Although a BMA approach can compromise on goodness of fit to the data (when compared to the true model), it can provide robust predictions and facilitate more detailed investigation of the relationships between gene expression and patient survival. Keywords: Bayesian modelling; Bayesian model averaging; Cure model; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Mixture model; Survival analysis; Weibull distribution

Characterizing transport through a crowded environment with different obstacle sizes

Transport through crowded environments is often classified as anomalous, rather than classical, Fickian diffusion. Several studies have sought to describe such transport processes using either a continuous time random walk or fractional order differential equation. For both these models the transport is characterized by a parameter α, where α = 1 is associated with Fickian diffusion and α < 1 is associated with anomalous subdiffusion. Here, we simulate a single agent migrating through a crowded environment populated by impenetrable, immobile obstacles and estimate α from mean squared displacement data. We also simulate the transport of a population of such agents through a similar crowded environment and match averaged agent density profiles to the solution of a related fractional order differential equation to obtain an alternative estimate of α. We examine the relationship between our estimate of α and the properties of the obstacle field for both a single agent and a population of agents; we show that in both cases, α decreases as the obstacle density increases, and that the rate of decrease is greater for smaller obstacles. Our work suggests that it may be inappropriate to model transport through a crowded environment using widely reported approaches including power laws to describe the mean squared displacement and fractional order differential equations to represent the averaged agent density profiles.

Predictors of initiating and maintaining active commuting to work using transport and public health perspectives in Australia

Objective To identify predictors for initiating and maintaining active commuting (AC) to work following the 2003 Australia's Walk to Work Day (WTWD) campaign. Methods Pre- and post-campaign telephone surveys of a cohort of working age (18–65years) adults (n = 1100, 55% response rate). Two dependent campaign outcomes were assessed: initiating or maintaining AC (i.e., walk/cycle and public transport) on a single day (WTWD), and increasing or maintaining health-enhancing active commuting (HEAC) level (≥ 30min/day) in a usual week following WTWD campaign. Results A significant population-level increase in HEAC (3.9%) was observed (McNemar's χ2 = 6.53, p = 0.01) with 136 (19.0%) achieving HEAC at post campaign. High confidence in incorporating walking into commute, being active pre-campaign and younger age (< 46years) were positively associated with both outcomes. The utility of AC for avoiding parking hassles (AOR = 2.1, 95% CI: 1.2–3.6), for less expense (AOR = 1.8, 95% CI: 1.1–3.1), for increasing one's health (AOR = 2.5, 95% CI: 1.1–5.6) and for clean air (AOR = 2.2, 95% CI: 1.0–4.4) predicted HEAC outcome whereas avoiding the stress of driving (AOR = 2.6, 95% CI: 1.4–5.0) and the hassle of parking predicted the single-day AC. Conclusions Transportation interventions targeting parking and costs could be further enhanced by emphasizing health benefits of AC. AC was less likely to occur among inactive employees.

Second-order elastic finite element analysis of steel structures using a single element per member

Finite element frame analysis programs targeted for design office application necessitate algorithms which can deliver reliable numerical convergence in a practical timeframe with comparable degrees of accuracy, and a highly desirable attribute is the use of a single element per member to reduce computational storage, as well as data preparation and the interpretation of the results. To this end, a higher-order finite element method including geometric non-linearity is addressed in the paper for the analysis of elastic frames for which a single element is used to model each member. The geometric non-linearity in the structure is handled using an updated Lagrangian formulation, which takes the effects of the large translations and rotations that occur at the joints into consideration by accumulating their nodal coordinates. Rigid body movements are eliminated from the local member load-displacement relationship for which the total secant stiffness is formulated for evaluating the large member deformations of an element. The influences of the axial force on the member stiffness and the changes in the member chord length are taken into account using a modified bowing function which is formulated in the total secant stiffness relationship, for which the coupling of the axial strain and flexural bowing is included. The accuracy and efficiency of the technique is verified by comparisons with a number of plane and spatial structures, whose structural response has been reported in independent studies.

An efficient proactive route maintenance process for reliable data transmissions in sensor networks

For industrial wireless sensor networks, maintaining the routing path for a high packet delivery ratio is one of the key objectives in network operations. It is important to both provide the high data delivery rate at the sink node and guarantee a timely delivery of the data packet at the sink node. Most proactive routing protocols for sensor networks are based on simple periodic updates to distribute the routing information. A faulty link causes packet loss and retransmission at the source until periodic route update packets are issued and the link has been identified as broken. We propose a new proactive route maintenance process where periodic update is backed-up with a secondary layer of local updates repeating with shorter periods for timely discovery of broken links. Proposed route maintenance scheme improves reliability of the network by decreasing the packet loss due to delayed identification of broken links. We show by simulation that proposed mechanism behaves better than the existing popular routing protocols (AODV, AOMDV and DSDV) in terms of end-to-end delay, routing overhead, packet reception ratio.

Decision fusion from parts and samples for robust iris recognition

Fusion techniques can be used in biometrics to achieve higher accuracy. When biometric systems are in operation and the threat level changes, controlling the trade-off between detection error rates can reduce the impact of an attack. In a fused system, varying a single threshold does not allow this to be achieved, but systematic adjustment of a set of parameters does. In this paper, fused decisions from a multi-part, multi-sample sequential architecture are investigated for that purpose in an iris recognition system. A specific implementation of the multi-part architecture is proposed and the effect of the number of parts and samples in the resultant detection error rate is analysed. The effectiveness of the proposed architecture is then evaluated under two specific cases of obfuscation attack: miosis and mydriasis. Results show that robustness to such obfuscation attacks is achieved, since lower error rates than in the case of the non-fused base system are obtained.

Perioperative medication management: expanding the role of the preadmission clinic pharmacist in a single centre, randomised controlled trial of collaborative prescribing

Objectives Current evidence to support non-medical prescribing is predominantly qualitative, with little evaluation of accuracy, safety and appropriateness. Our aim was to evaluate a new model of service for the Australia healthcare system, of inpatient medication prescribing by a pharmacist in an elective surgery preadmission clinic (PAC) against usual care, using an endorsed performance framework. Design Single centre, randomised controlled, two-arm trial. Setting Elective surgery PAC in a Brisbane-based tertiary hospital. Participants 400 adults scheduled for elective surgery were randomised to intervention or control. Intervention A pharmacist generated the inpatient medication chart to reflect the patient's regular medication, made a plan for medication perioperatively and prescribed venous thromboembolism (VTE) prophylaxis. In the control arm, the medication chart was generated by the Resident Medical Officers. Outcome measures Primary outcome was frequency of omissions and prescribing errors when compared against the medication history. The clinical significance of omissions was also analysed. Secondary outcome was appropriateness of VTE prophylaxis prescribing. Results There were significantly less unintended omissions of medications: 11 of 887 (1.2%) intervention orders compared with 383 of 1217 (31.5%) control (p<0.001). There were significantly less prescribing errors involving selection of drug, dose or frequency: 2 in 857 (0.2%) intervention orders compared with 51 in 807 (6.3%) control (p<0.001). Orders with at least one component of the prescription missing, incorrect or unclear occurred in 208 of 904 (23%) intervention orders and 445 of 1034 (43%) controls (p<0.001). VTE prophylaxis on admission to the ward was appropriate in 93% of intervention patients and 90% controls (p=0.29). Conclusions Medication charts in the intervention arm contained fewer clinically significant omissions, and prescribing errors, when compared with controls. There was no difference in appropriateness of VTE prophylaxis on admission between the two groups.

Alcohol ingestion impairs maximal post-exercise rates of myofibrillar protein synthesis following a single bout of concurrent training

Introduction The culture in many team sports involves consumption of large amounts of alcohol after training/competition. The effect of such a practice on recovery processes underlying protein turnover in human skeletal muscle are unknown. We determined the effect of alcohol intake on rates of myofibrillar protein synthesis (MPS) following strenuous exercise with carbohydrate (CHO) or protein ingestion. Methods In a randomized cross-over design, 8 physically active males completed three experimental trials comprising resistance exercise (8×5 reps leg extension, 80% 1 repetition maximum) followed by continuous (30 min, 63% peak power output (PPO)) and high intensity interval (10×30 s, 110% PPO) cycling. Immediately, and 4 h post-exercise, subjects consumed either 500 mL of whey protein (25 g; PRO), alcohol (1.5 g·kg body mass−1, 12±2 standard drinks) co-ingested with protein (ALC-PRO), or an energy-matched quantity of carbohydrate also with alcohol (25 g maltodextrin; ALC-CHO). Subjects also consumed a CHO meal (1.5 g CHO·kg body mass−1) 2 h post-exercise. Muscle biopsies were taken at rest, 2 and 8 h post-exercise. Results Blood alcohol concentration was elevated above baseline with ALC-CHO and ALC-PRO throughout recovery (P<0.05). Phosphorylation of mTORSer2448 2 h after exercise was higher with PRO compared to ALC-PRO and ALC-CHO (P<0.05), while p70S6K phosphorylation was higher 2 h post-exercise with ALC-PRO and PRO compared to ALC-CHO (P<0.05). Rates of MPS increased above rest for all conditions (~29–109%, P<0.05). However, compared to PRO, there was a hierarchical reduction in MPS with ALC-PRO (24%, P<0.05) and with ALC-CHO (37%, P<0.05). Conclusion We provide novel data demonstrating that alcohol consumption reduces rates of MPS following a bout of concurrent exercise, even when co-ingested with protein. We conclude that alcohol ingestion suppresses the anabolic response in skeletal muscle and may therefore impair recovery and adaptation to training and/or subsequent performance.

Targeted therapies in non-small cell lung cancer

The majority of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients present with advanced disease and with a 5 year survival rate of <15% for these patients, treatment outcomes are considered extremely disappointing. Standard chemotherapy regimens provide some improvement to ~40% of patients. However, intrinsic and acquired chemoresistance are a significant problem and hinder sustained long term benefits of such treatments. Advances in proteomic and genomic profiling have increased our understanding of the aberrant molecular mechanisms that are driving an individual's tumour. The increased sensitivity of these technologies has enabled molecular profiling at the stage of initial biopsy thus paving the way for a more personalised approach to the treatment of cancer patients. Improvements in diagnostics together with a wave of new targeted small molecule inhibitors and monoclonal antibodies have revolutionised the treatment of cancer. To date there are essentially three targeted agents approved for clinical use in NSCLC. The tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) erlotinib, which targets the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) TK domain, has proven to be an effective treatment strategy in patients who harbour activating mutations in the EGFR TK domain. Bevacizumab a monoclonal antibody targeting the vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) can improve survival, response rates, and progression-free survival when used in combination with chemotherapy. Crizotinib, a small-molecule drug, inhibits the tyrosine kinase activity of the echinoderm microtubule-associated protein-like 4 anaplastic lymphoma kinase (EML4-ALK) fusion protein, resulting in decreased tumour cell growth, migration, and invasiveness in patients with locally advanced or metastatic NSCLC. The clinical relevance of several other targeted agents are under investigation in distinct molecular subsets of patients with key "driver" mutations including: KRAS, HER2, BRAF, MET, PIK3CA, AKT1,MAP2K1, ROS1 and RET. Often several pathways are activated simultaneously and crosstalk between pathways allows tumour cells to escape the inhibition of a single targeted agent. This chapter will explore the clinical development of currently available targeted therapies for NSCLC as well as those in clinical trials and will examine the synergy between cytotoxic therapies.

From single crystal surfaces to single atoms : investigating active sites in electrocatalysis

Electrocatalytic processes will undoubtedly be at the heart of energising future transportation and technology with the added importance of being able to create the necessary fuels required to do so in an environmentally friendly and cost effective manner. For this to be successful two almost mutually exclusive surface properties need to be reconciled, namely producing highly active/reactive surface sites that exhibit long term stability. This article reviews the various approaches which have been undertaken to study the elusive nature of these active sites on metal surfaces which are considered as adatoms or clusters of adatoms with low coordination number. This includes the pioneering studies at extended well defined stepped single crystal surfaces using cyclic voltammetry up to the highly sophisticated in situ electrochemical imaging techniques used to study chemically synthesised nanomaterials. By combining the information attained from single crystal surfaces, individual nanoparticles of defined size and shape, density functional theory calculations and new concepts such as mesoporous multimetallic thin films and single atom electrocatalysts new insights into the design and fabrication of materials with highly active but stable active sites can be achieved. The area of electrocatalysis is therefore not only a fascinating and exciting field in terms of realistic technological and economical benefits but also from the fundamental understanding that can be acquired by studying such an array of interesting materials.

Improved rural health through a collaborative model of care – qualitative findings

INTRODUCTION Health disparity between urban and rural regions in Australia is well-documented. In the Wheatbelt catchments of Western Australia there is higher incidence and rate of avoidable hospitalisation for chronic diseases. Structured care approach to chronic illnesses is not new but the focus has been on single disease state. A recent ARC Discovery Project on general practice nurse-led chronic disease management of diabetes, hypertension and stable ischaemic heart disease reported improved communication and better medical administration.[1] In our study we investigated the sustainability of such a multi-morbidities general practice –led collaborative model of care in rural Australia. METHODS A QUAN(qual) design was utilised. Eight pairs of rural general practices were matched. Inclusion criteria used were >18 years and capable of giving informed consent, at least one identified risk factor or diagnosed with chronic conditions. Patients were excluded if deemed medically unsuitable. A comprehensive care plan was formulated by the respective general practice nurse in consultation with the treating General Practitioner (GP) and patient based on the individual’s readiness to change, and was informed by available local resource. A case management approach was utilised. Shediaz-Rizkallah and Lee’s conceptual framework on sustainability informed our evaluation.[2] Our primary outcome on measures of sustainability was reduction in avoidable hospitalisation. Secondary outcomes were patients and practitioners acceptance and satisfaction, and changes to pre-determined interim clinical and process outcomes. RESULTS The qualitative interviews highlighted the community preference for a ‘sustainable’ local hospital in addition to general practice. Costs, ease of access, low prioritisation of self chronic care, workforce turnover and perception of losing another local resource if underutilised influenced the respondents’ decision to present at local hospital for avoidable chronic diseases regardless. CONCLUSIONS Despite the pragmatic nature of rural general practice in Australia, the sustainability of chronic multi-morbidities management in general practice require efficient integration of primary-secondary health care and consideration of other social determinants of health. What this study adds: What is already known on this subject: Structured approach to chronic disease management is not new and has been shown to be effective for reducing hospitalisation. However, the focus has been on single disease state. What does this study add: Sustainability of collaborative model of multi-morbidities care require better primary-secondary integration and consideration of social determinants of health.

The epidemiology of basal cell carcinoma

Basal cell carcinoma (BCC) is a skin cancer of particular importance to the Australian community. Its rate of occurrence is highest in Queensland, where 1% to 2% of people are newly affected annually. This is an order of magnitude higher than corresponding incidence estimates in European and North American populations. Individuals with a sun-sensitive complexion are particularly susceptible because sun exposure is the single most important causative agent, as shown by the anatomic distribution of BCC which is in general consistent with the levels of sun exposure across body sites. A distinguishing feature of BCC is the occurrence of multiple primary tumours within individuals, synchronously or over time, and their diagnosis and treatment costs contribute substantially to the major public health burden caused by BCC. A primary knowledge gap about BCC pathogenesis however was an understanding of the true frequency of multiple BCC occurrences and their body distribution, and why a proportion of people do develop more than one BCC in their life. This research project sought to address this gap under an overarching research aim to better understand the detailed epidemiology of BCC with the ultimate goal of reducing the burden of this skin cancer through prevention. The particular aim was to document prospectively the rate of BCC occurrence and its associations with constitutional and environmental (solar) factors, all the while paying special attention to persons affected by more than one BCC. The study built on previous findings and recent developments in the field but set out to confirm and extend these and propose more adequate theories about the complex epidemiology of this cancer. Addressing these goals required a new approach to researching basal cell carcinoma, due to the need to account for the phenomenon of multiple incident BCCs per person. This was enabled by a 20 year community-based study of skin cancer in Australians that provided the methodological foundation for this thesis. Study participants were originally randomly selected in 1986 from the electoral register of all adult residents of the subtropical township of Nambour in Queensland, Australia. On various occasions during the study, participants were fully examined by dermatologists who documented cumulative photodamage as well as skin cancers. Participants completed standard questionnaires about skin cancer-related factors, and consented to have any diagnosed skin cancers notified to the investigators by regional pathology laboratories in Queensland. These methods allowed 100% ascertainment of histologically confirmed BCCs in this study population. 1339 participants had complete follow-up to the end of 2007. Statistical analyses in this thesis were carried out using SAS and SUDAAN statistical software packages. Modelling methods, including multivariate logistic regressions, allowed for repeated measures in terms of multiple BCCs per person. This innovative approach gave new findings on two levels, presented in five chapters as scientific papers: 1. Incidence of basal cell carcinoma multiplicity and detailed anatomic distribution: longitudinal study of an Australian population The incidence of people affected multiple times by BCC was 705 per 100,000 person years compared to an incidence rate of people singly affected of 935 per 100,000 person years. Among multiply and singly affected persons alike, site-specific BCC incidence rates were far highest on facial subsites, followed by upper limbs, trunk, and then lower limbs 2. Melanocytic nevi and basal cell carcinoma: is there an association? BCC risk was significantly increased in those with forearm nevi (Odds Ratios (OR) 1.43, 95% Confidence Intervals (CI) 1.09-1.89) compared to people without forearm nevi, especially among those who spent their time mainly outdoors (OR 1.6, 95%CI 1.1-2.3) compared to those who spent their time mainly indoors. Nevi on the back were not associated with BCC. 3. Clinical signs of photodamage are associated with basal cell carcinoma multiplicity and site: a 16-year longitudinal study Over a 16-year follow-up period, 58% of people affected by BCC developed more than one BCC. Among these people 60% developed BCCs across different anatomic sites. Participants with high numbers of solar keratoses, compared to people without solar keratoses, were most likely to experience the highest BCC counts overall (OR 3.3, 95%CI 1.4-13.5). Occurrences of BCC on the trunk (OR 3.3, 95%CI 1.4-7.6) and on the limbs (OR 3.7, 95%CI 2.0-7.0) were strongly associated with high numbers of solar keratoses on these sites. 4. Occurrence and determinants of basal cell carcinoma by histological subtype in an Australian community Among 1202 BCCs, 77% had a single growth pattern and 23% were of mixed histological composition. Among all BCCs the nodular followed by the superficial growth patterns were commonest. Risk of nodular and superficial BCCs on the head was raised if 5 or more solar keratoses were present on the face (OR 1.8, 95%CI 1.2-2.7 and OR 4.5, 95%CI 2.1-9.7 respectively) and similarly on the trunk in the presence of multiple solar keratoses on the trunk (OR 4.2, 95%CI 1.5-11.9 and OR 2.2, 95%CI 1.1-4.4 respectively). 5. Basal cell carcinoma and measures of cumulative sun exposure: an Australian longitudinal community-based study Dermal elastosis was more likely to be seen adjacent to head and neck BCCs than trunk BCCs (p=0.01). Severity of dermal elastosis increased on each site with increasing clinical signs of cutaneous sun damage on that site. BCCs that occurred without perilesional elastosis per se, were always found in an anatomic region with signs of photodamage. This thesis thus has identified the magnitude of the burden of multiple BCCs. It does not support the view that people affected by more than one BCC represent a distinct group of people who are prone to BCCs on certain body sites. The results also demonstrate that BCCs regardless of site, histology or order of occurrence are strongly associated with cumulative sun exposure causing photodamage to the skin, and hence challenge the view that BCCs occurring on body sites with typically low opportunities for sun exposure or of the superficial growth pattern are different in their association with the sun from those on typically sun-exposed sites, or nodular BCCs, respectively. Through dissemination in the scientific and medical literature, and to the community at large, these findings can ultimately assist in the primary and secondary prevention of BCC, perhaps especially in high-risk populations.

Reaction of Aromatic Peroxyl Radicals with Alkynes: A Mass Spectrometric and Computational Study Using the Distonic Radical Ion Approach

The reaction of the aromatic distonic peroxyl radical cations N-methyl pyridinium-4-peroxyl (PyrOO center dot+) and 4-(N,N,N-trimethyl ammonium)-phenyl peroxyl (AnOO center dot+), with symmetrical dialkyl alkynes 10?ac was studied in the gas phase by mass spectrometry. PyrOO center dot+ and AnOO center dot+ were produced through reaction of the respective distonic aryl radical cations Pyr center dot+ and An center dot+ with oxygen, O2. For the reaction of Pyr center dot+ with O2 an absolute rate coefficient of k1=7.1X10-12 cm3 molecule-1 s-1 and a collision efficiency of 1.2?% was determined at 298 K. The strongly electrophilic PyrOO center dot+ reacts with 3-hexyne and 4-octyne with absolute rate coefficients of khexyne=1.5X10-10 cm3 molecule-1 s-1 and koctyne=2.8X10-10 cm3 molecule-1 s-1, respectively, at 298 K. The reaction of both PyrOO center dot+ and AnOO center dot+ proceeds by radical addition to the alkyne, whereas propargylic hydrogen abstraction was observed as a very minor pathway only in the reactions involving PyrOO center dot+. A major reaction pathway of the vinyl radicals 11 formed upon PyrOO center dot+ addition to the alkynes involves gamma-fragmentation of the peroxy O?O bond and formation of PyrO center dot+. The PyrO center dot+ is rapidly trapped by intermolecular hydrogen abstraction, presumably from a propargylic methylene group in the alkyne. The reaction of the less electrophilic AnOO center dot+ with alkynes is considerably slower and resulted in formation of AnO center dot+ as the only charged product. These findings suggest that electrophilic aromatic peroxyl radicals act as oxygen atom donors, which can be used to generate alpha-oxo carbenes 13 (or isomeric species) from alkynes in a single step. Besides gamma-fragmentation, a number of competing unimolecular dissociative reactions also occur in vinyl radicals 11. The potential energy diagrams of these reactions were explored with density functional theory and ab initio methods, which enabled identification of the chemical structures of the most important products.

Ozone-induced dissociation of conjugated lipids reveals significant reaction rate enhancements and characteristic odd-electron product ions

Ozone-induced dissociation (OzID) is an alternative ion activation method that relies on the gas phase ion-molecule reaction between a mass-selected target ion and ozone in an ion trap mass spectrometer. Herein, we evaluated the performance of OzID for both the structural elucidation and selective detection of conjugated carbon-carbon double bond motifs within lipids. The relative reactivity trends for \[M + X](+) ions (where X = Li, Na, K) formed via electrospray ionization (ESI) of conjugated versus nonconjugated fatty acid methyl esters (FAMEs) were examined using two different OzID-enabled linear ion-trap mass spectrometers. Compared with nonconjugated analogues, FAMEs derived from conjugated linoleic acids were found to react up to 200 times faster and to yield characteristic radical cations. The significantly enhanced reactivity of conjugated isomers means that OzID product ions can be observed without invoking a reaction delay in the experimental sequence (i.e., trapping of ions in the presence of ozone is not required). This possibility has been exploited to undertake neutral-loss scans on a triple quadrupole mass spectrometer targeting characteristic OzID transitions. Such analyses reveal the presence of conjugated double bonds in lipids extracted from selected foodstuffs. Finally, by benchmarking of the absolute ozone concentration inside the ion trap, second order rate constants for the gas phase reactions between unsaturated organic ions and ozone were obtained. These results demonstrate a significant influence of the adducting metal on reaction rate constants in the fashion Li > Na > K.

Simulations of the spontaneous emission of a quantum dot near a gap plasmon waveguide

In this paper we modeled a quantum dot at near proximity to a gap plasmon waveguide to study the quantum dot-plasmon interactions. Assuming that the waveguide is single mode, this paper is concerned about the dependence of spontaneous emission rate of the quantum dot on waveguide dimensions such as width and height. We compare coupling efficiency of a gap waveguide with symmetric configuration and asymmetric configuration illustrating that symmetric waveguide has a better coupling efficiency to the quantum dot. We also demonstrate that optimally placed quantum dot near a symmetric waveguide with 50 nm x 50 nm cross section can capture 80% of the spontaneous emission into a guided plasmon mode.