440 resultados para Seasonal Co-integration
Resumo:
Background: The two most reported mosquito-borne diseases in Queensland, a northern state of Australia, are Ross River virus (RRV) disease and Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease. Both diseases are endemic in Queensland and have similar clinical symptoms and comparable transmission cycles involving a complex inter-relationship between human hosts, various mosquito vectors, and a range of nonhuman vertebrate hosts, including marsupial mammals that are unique to the Australasian region. Although these viruses are thought to share similar vectors and vertebrate hosts, RRV is four times more prevalent than BFV in Queensland. Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of BFV and RRV human disease notification data collected from 1995 to 2007 in Queensland to ascertain whether there were differences in the incidence patterns of RRV and BFV disease. In particular, we compared the temporal incidence and spatial distribution of both diseases and considered the relationship between their disease dynamics. We also investigated whether a peak in BFV incidence during spring was indicative of the following RRV and BFV transmission season incidence levels. Results: Although there were large differences in the notification rates of the two diseases, they had similar annual temporal patterns, but there were regional variations between the length and magnitude of the transmission seasons. During periods of increased disease activity, however, there was no association between the dynamics of the two diseases. Conclusions: The results from this study suggest that while RRV and BFV share similar mosquito vectors, there are significant differences in the ecology of these viruses that result in different epidemic patterns of disease incidence. Further investigation is required into the ecology of each virus to determine which factors are important in promoting RRV and BFV disease outbreaks.
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Background Detection of outbreaks is an important part of disease surveillance. Although many algorithms have been designed for detecting outbreaks, few have been specifically assessed against diseases that have distinct seasonal incidence patterns, such as those caused by vector-borne pathogens. Methods We applied five previously reported outbreak detection algorithms to Ross River virus (RRV) disease data (1991-2007) for the four local government areas (LGAs) of Brisbane, Emerald, Redland and Townsville in Queensland, Australia. The methods used were the Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS) C1, C2 and C3 methods, negative binomial cusum (NBC), historical limits method (HLM), Poisson outbreak detection (POD) method and the purely temporal SaTScan analysis. Seasonally-adjusted variants of the NBC and SaTScan methods were developed. Some of the algorithms were applied using a range of parameter values, resulting in 17 variants of the five algorithms. Results The 9,188 RRV disease notifications that occurred in the four selected regions over the study period showed marked seasonality, which adversely affected the performance of some of the outbreak detection algorithms. Most of the methods examined were able to detect the same major events. The exception was the seasonally-adjusted NBC methods that detected an excess of short signals. The NBC, POD and temporal SaTScan algorithms were the only methods that consistently had high true positive rates and low false positive and false negative rates across the four study areas. The timeliness of outbreak signals generated by each method was also compared but there was no consistency across outbreaks and LGAs. Conclusions This study has highlighted several issues associated with applying outbreak detection algorithms to seasonal disease data. In lieu of a true gold standard, a quantitative comparison is difficult and caution should be taken when interpreting the true positives, false positives, sensitivity and specificity.
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Background Animal and human infection with multiple parasite species is the norm rather than the exception, and empirical studies and animal models have provided evidence for a diverse range of interactions among parasites. We demonstrate how an optimal control strategy should be tailored to the pathogen community and tempered by species-level knowledge of drug sensitivity with use of a simple epidemiological model of gastro-intestinal nematodes. Methods We construct a fully mechanistic model of macroparasite co-infection and use it to explore a range of control scenarios involving chemotherapy as well as improvements to sanitation. Results Scenarios are presented whereby control not only releases a more resistant parasite from antagonistic interactions, but risks increasing co-infection rates, exacerbating the burden of disease. In contrast, synergisms between species result in their becoming epidemiologically slaved within hosts, presenting a novel opportunity for controlling drug resistant parasites by targeting co-circulating species. Conclusions Understanding the effects on control of multi-parasite species interactions, and vice versa, is of increasing urgency in the advent of integrated mass intervention programmes.
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A new diketopyrrolopyrrole (DPP)-containing donor-acceptor polymer, poly(2,5-bis(2-octyldodecyl)-3,6-di(furan-2-yl)-2,5-dihydro-pyrrolo[3,4-c] pyrrole-1,4-dione-co-thieno[3,2-b]thiophene) (PDBF-co-TT), is synthesized and studied as a semiconductor in organic thin film transistors (OTFTs) and organic photovoltaics (OPVs). High hole mobility of up to 0.53 cm 2 V -1 s -1 in bottom-gate, top-contact OTFT devices is achieved owing to the ordered polymer chain packing and favoured chain orientation, strong intermolecular interactions, as well as uniform film morphology of PDBF-co-TT. The optimum band gap of 1.39 eV and high hole mobility make this polymer a promising donor semiconductor for the solar cell application. When paired with a fullerene acceptor, PC 71BM, the resulting OPV devices show a high power conversion efficiency of up to 4.38% under simulated standard AM1.5 solar illumination.
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While the use of environmental factors in the analysis and prediction of failures of buried reticulation pipes in cold environments has been the focus of extensive work, the same cannot be said for failures occurring on pipes in other (non-freezing) environments. A novel analysis of pipe failures in such an environment is the subject of this paper. An exploratory statistical analysis was undertaken, identifying a peak in failure rates during mid to late summer. This peak was found to correspond to a peak in the rate of circumferential failures, whilst the rate of longitudinal failures remained constant. Investigation into the effect of climate on failure rates revealed that the peak in failure rates occurs due to differential soil movement as the result of shrinkage in expansive soils.
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In project management today, sustainability considerations are becoming increasingly necessary as an inclusion into project discovery, design and delivery phase methodologies. However, sustainability cannot always be tacked on to traditional project management approaches and still achieve the best project outcomes. Throw in the particular considerations for a culturally specific project, as for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, and the traditional project management approach is at risk of not meeting the needs of stakeholders or their engagement. In this presentation, we will briefly demonstrate how from beginning with sustainability considerations and integrating both project management principles and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander va lu es that QUT's Oodgeroo Unit is actioning a 'means to ends' integration approach for stakeholder engagement in two national Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander projects. The iterative discovery and design of the federally Higher Education Participation and Partnerships Program (HEPPP) funded Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Higher Education Social Marketing Strategy (Strategy) and the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Higher Education Portal (Portal) projects is being informed through a 'means' to 'ends' user- and design -led project management approach for inclusivity, visioning, and participation informing these projects for susta inable national deliverables. This approach draws upon the integration of Sustain ability Development Pillars and Project Management Pillars with the contextual lens of our proposed Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Pillars as the underpinning methodology of the Strategy and Portal Project's Communication and Collaboration Plan and approach with stakeholders. These th ree Pillars are integrated further through participatory consideration and inclu sion of comparative models: Daly's Sustainability Triangle, Walker's Object Design, Maslow's Hierarchy of Human Needs, Olsen's Four Layers of Communication,Project Management In stitute's (PMI's) Integrated Framework for Organisational Project Management, with the Aborig inal and Torres Strait Islander six core research ethics values. This presentation invites participants to join us in envisioning the 'ultimate means' of Environment, Del ivery and Sovereignty, through Economy, Design and Self-determination to the 'ultimate ends' of Social, Discove ry and Cultural Safety principles through stakeholder engagement.
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This paper presents a new direct integration scheme for supercapacitors that are used to mitigate short term power fluctuations in wind power systems. The proposed scheme uses the popular dual inverter topology for grid connection as well as interfacing a supercapacitor bank. The dual inverter system is formed by cascading two 2-level inverters named as the “main inverter” and the “auxiliary inverter”. The main inverter is powered by the rectified output of a wind turbine coupled permanent magnet synchronous generator. The auxiliary inverter is directly connected to a super capacitor bank. This approach eliminates the need for an interfacing dc-dc converter for the supercapacitor bank and thus improves the overall efficiency. A detailed analysis on the effects of non-integer dynamically changing voltage ratio is presented. The concept of integrated boost rectifier is used to carry out the Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT) of the wind turbine generator. Another novel feature of this paper is the power reference adjuster which effectively manages capacitor charging and discharging at extreme conditions. Simulation results are presented to verify the efficacy of the proposed system in suppressing short term wind power fluctuations.
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Achieving business and IT integration is strategic goal for many organisations – it has almost become the ‘Holy Grail’ of organisational success. In this environment Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) packages have become the defacto option for addressing this issue. Integration has come to mean adopting ERP, through configuration and without customization, but this all or nothing approach has proved difficult for many organisations. In part 1 of a 2 part update we provide evidence from the field that suggests that whilst costly, if managed appropriately, customization can have value in aiding organisational integration efforts. In part 2, we discuss in more detail the benefits and pitfalls involved in enacting a non-standard based integration strategy.
Resumo:
In part 1 of this update, we put forward the argument that integration in ERP based environments can be achieved in ways other than adopting a software configuration only approach. We drew on evidence from two large ERP implementations to show how, despite the cost implications, some customization, if carefully managed, could prove helpful. In this, the final part of the update, we discuss the benefits, and potential pitfalls, involved in enacting a non-standard based integration strategy. This requires attention to a) broadening the integration definition; b) bringing legacy practices forward and c) developing a customization based integration strategy.
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Knowledge Integration (KI) is one of the major aspects driving innovation within an organisation. In this paper, we attempt to develop a better understanding of responses to the challenges of knowledge integration within the innovation process in technology-based firms. Using four technology-based Australian firms, we investigated how knowledge integration may be managed within the context of innovation in technology firms. Previous research highlights the role of four KI tasks that affect the innovation capability within technology-oriented firms, namely team building capability, capturing tacit knowledge, role of Knowledge Management (KM) systems and technological systemic integration. Our findings indicate that in addition to these four tasks, a strategic approach to integrating knowledge for innovation, as well as leadership and management, are essential to achieving effective KI across multiple levels of engagement. Our findings also offer practical insights into how knowledge can be integrated within innovation process, with specific implications for managers.
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While past knowledge-based approaches to service innovation have emphasized the role of knowledge integration in the delivery of customer-focused solutions, these approaches do not adequately address the complexities inherent in knowledge acquisition and integration in project-oriented firms. Adopting a dynamic capability framework and building on knowledge-based approaches to innovation, the current study examines how the interplay of learning capabilities and knowledge integration capability impacts service innovation and sustained competitive advantage. This two-stage multi-sample study finds that entrepreneurial project-oriented service firms in their quest for competitive advantage through greater innovation invest in knowledge acquisition and integration capabilities. Implications for theory and practice are discussed and directions for future research provided.
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The Story Project is a small, not-for-profit community media arts company based on the Sunshine Coast hinterland. It specialises in facilitating first-person storytelling. Since 2012 The Story Project has been collaborating with a small community arts organisation based in northern NSW, Uralla Arts, to record local heritage in first-person story form and to curate and present it ways that will appeal to new generations of listeners. The initial collaboration was funded by a Federal government Community Heritage program. The project successfully adapted a participatory method of life storytelling to this regional context and some 40 stories were contributed to a collection. A more ambitious suite of projects to develop soundwalks in a number of towns across the New England region has since grown from this initial collaboration. The soundwalks seek to combine local creative works in oral story, music and visual forms, and make them accessible through an application that can be downloaded to GPS-enabled mobile devices. While soundwalks are not new, the needs and challenges of creative community-building that New England soundwalks attempt to solve in this regional setting hold value for a broader range of interests than just those of the immediate project stakeholders. This paper reports on a research collaboration between The Story Project and QUT researchers that looked at The Story Project’s engagement with Uralla Arts and other New England community-based networks and organisations. It considers how this instance of story-centred, participatory media arts practice contributes to building population-wide capacity for creative expression.
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Organic compounds in Australian coal seam gas produced water (CSG water) are poorly understood despite their environmental contamination potential. In this study, the presence of some organic substances is identified from government-held CSG water-quality data from the Bowen and Surat Basins, Queensland. These records revealed the presence of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in 27% of samples of CSG water from the Walloon Coal Measures at concentrations <1 µg/L, and it is likely these compounds leached from in situ coals. PAHs identified from wells include naphthalene, phenanthrene, chrysene and dibenz[a,h]anthracene. In addition, the likelihood of coal-derived organic compounds leaching to groundwater is assessed by undertaking toxicity leaching experiments using coal rank and water chemistry as variables. These tests suggest higher molecular weight PAHs (including benzo[a]pyrene) leach from higher rank coals, whereas lower molecular weight PAHs leach at greater concentrations from lower rank coal. Some of the identified organic compounds have carcinogenic or health risk potential, but they are unlikely to be acutely toxic at the observed concentrations which are almost negligible (largely due to the hydrophobicity of such compounds). Hence, this study will be useful to practitioners assessing CSG water related environmental and health risk.
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The interest in poverty and the moral sense of'helping the poor' are a constant topic in Western culture (Mayo 2009).ln recent years, multinational corporations (MNCs) have evolved in their understanding of how social issues, such as poverty alleviation, relate to their fundamental purposes. From a business strategy point of view, 'socially responsible' initiatives are generally born with lhe dual purpose of attaining social visibility (i.e. marketing) and increasing economic returns. Besides addressing social challenges as part of their corporate social responsibility strategies, MNCs have also begun 'selling to the poor' in emerging markets (Prahalad 2004). A few forward -looking companies consider tltis base of the pyramid (BOP) market also as a source of innovation and have started to co-create with consumers (Simanis and Hart 2008).