Global, regional, and national age–sex specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0–65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0–71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8–48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6–56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25–39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20–49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.

High-resolution GNSS-tracked drifter for studying surface dispersion in shallow water

The use of GNSS tracked Lagrangian drifters allows more realistic quantification of fluid motion and dispersion coefficients than Eulerian techniques because such drifters are analogues of particles that are relevant to flow field characterisation and pollutant dispersion. Using the fast growing Real Time Kinematic (RTK) positioning technique derived from Global Satellite Navigation Systems (GNSS), drifters are developed for high frequency (10 Hz) sampling with position estimates to centimetre accuracy. The drifters are designed with small size and less direct wind drag to follow the sub-surface flow which characterizes dispersion in shallow waters. An analysis of position error from stationary observation indicates that the drifter can efficiently resolve motion up to 1 Hz. The result of the field deployments of the drifter in conjunction with acoustic Eulerian devices shows higher estimate of the drifter streamwise velocities. Single particle statistical analysis of field deployments in a shallow estuarine zone yielded dispersion coefficients estimate comparable to those of dye tracer studies. The drifters capture the tidal elevation during field studies in a tidal estuary.

Teaching Reflective Learning in Higher Education : A Systematic Approach Using Pedagogic Patterns

This book is about understanding the nature and application of reflection in higher education. It provides a theoretical model to guide the implementation of reflective learning and reflective practice across multiple disciplines and international contexts in higher education. The book presents research into the ways in which reflection is both considered and implemented in different ways across different professional disciplines, while maintaining a common purpose to transform and improve learning and/or practice. Readers will find this book innovative and new in three key ways. First, in its holistic theorisation of reflection within the pedagogic field of higher education; Secondly, in conceptualising reflection in different modes to achieve specific purposes in different disciplines; and finally, in providing conceptual guidance for embedding reflective learning and reflective practice in a systematic way across whole programmes, faculties or institutions in higher education. The book considers important contextual factors that influence the teaching of forms and methods of reflection. It provides a functional analysis of multiple modes of reflection, including written, oral, visual, auditory, and embodied forms. Empirical chapters analyse the application of these modes across disciplines and at different stages of a programme. The theoretical model accounts for students’ stage of development in the disciplinary field, along with progressive and cyclical levels of higher order thinking, and learning and professional practice that are expected within different disciplines and professional fields. The book provides: • A conceptual model for the application of reflection across disciplines in a variety of contexts. • Empirical examples of different modes and pedagogic patterns for reflection. • Guidance and support for embedding systemic pedagogical and curriculum change.

Strategies for teaching evidence-based practice to undergraduate health students: A systematic review protocol

Review question/objective The objective of this review is to find, critically appraise and synthesize the available quantitative evidence on the effectiveness of interventions that promote successful teaching of the evidence-based practice process in undergraduate health students, in preparation for them to become professional evidence-based practitioners. More specifically, the question that this review seeks to answer is: What is the effectiveness of teaching strategies for evidence-based practice for undergraduate health students? Inclusion criteria Types of participants This review will consider studies that include undergraduate health students from any undergraduate health discipline, including but not limited to medicine, nursing and allied health. Post graduate and post-registration students will not be included. Types of interventions This review will consider studies that evaluate strategies or interventions aimed at teaching any or all of the five steps of evidence-based practice, namely asking a structured clinical question; collecting the best evidence available; critically appraising the evidence to ensure validity, relevance and applicability; applying or integrating the results into clinical practice, and evaluating outcomes. The strategy may take place solely within a tertiary education environment or may be combined with a clinical setting. Types of outcomes This review will consider studies that include the following outcome measures: evidence-based practice behavior, knowledge, skills, attitudes, self-efficacy (or self-confidence), beliefs, values, intention to use evidence-based practice (future use) and confidence levels. Tools used to measure these outcomes will be assessed for reported validity, reliability and generalizability. Outcomes will be measured during the student’s education period up to graduation. If studies are conducted across different year levels this will be taken into account during analysis and reported accordingly.

The effectiveness of psychosocial interventions for cognitive dysfunction in cancer patients who have received chemotherapy : a systematic review

Background: Chemotherapy-related cognitive dysfunction (CRCD) refers to problems with memory,attention span, or concentration, experienced by patients with cancer who have had chemotherapy. CRCD can have a significant negative effect on a patient’s quality of life. The exact cause of CRCD is unknown but is presumed to be multifactorial. Objective: To conduct a systematic review of the effectiveness of psychosocial interventions designed to treat CRCD. Methods: Participants of interest to the review were over 18 years of age, diagnosed with cancer, and receiving chemotherapy or had received chemotherapy in the past. Interventions of interest were methods to improve cognitive function. Included study designs were randomized controlled trials, quasi-experimental trials, and quantitative observational studies. The primary outcome of interest was level of cognitive function. A three-step search strategy was utilized to identify studies published from 1985 to 2011 from a wide range of databases. Joanna Briggs Institute systematic review methods were used but findings were analyzed using the Cochrane Collaboration Review Manager 5.1 program.Weightedmean differences with 95% confidence intervals were calculated from the continuous data. Results: Searching identified 3,109 potentially relevant articles and 120 full-text articles were retrieved. Two further papers were sourced from reference lists of retrieved articles. From 122 papers, six were suitable for critical appraisal and six were included in the analysis. Meta-analysis was conducted on two cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) trials for the outcome of inability to concentrate. Significant effect was seen for one CBT intervention at 20 weeks (p = .004). Significant effect from CBT on quality of life was seen at 6-month follow-up (p < .05). Conclusions: Despite some evidence of an effect, there is insufficient evidence at this stage to strongly recommend any of the interventions to assist in decreasing the effects of CRCD, except in terms of improving quality of life.

Napping, development and health from 0 to 5 years : a systematic review

Background Duration and quality of sleep affect child development and health. Encouragement of napping in preschool children has been suggested as a health-promoting strategy. Objectives The aim of this study is to assess evidence regarding the effects of napping on measures of child development and health. Design This study is a systematic review of published, original research articles of any design. Subjects Children aged 0–5 years. Method Electronic database search was performed following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines and assessment of research quality was carried out following a Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations (GRADE) protocol. Results Twenty-six articles met inclusion criteria. These were of heterogeneous quality; all had observational designs (GRADE-low). Development and health outcomes included salivary cortisol, night sleep, cognition, behaviour, obesity and accidents. The findings regarding cognition, behaviour and health impacts were inconsistent, probably because of variation in age and habitual napping status of the samples. The most consistent finding was an association between napping and later onset, shorter duration and poorer quality of night sleep, with evidence strongest beyond the age of 2 years. Limitations Studies were not randomised. Most did not obtain data on the children's habitual napping status or the context of napping. Many were reliant on parent report rather than direct observation or physiological measurement of sleep behaviour. Conclusions The evidence indicates that beyond the age of 2 years napping is associated with later night sleep onset and both reduced sleep quality and duration. The evidence regarding behaviour, health and cognition is less certain. There is a need for more systematic studies that use stronger designs. In preschool children presenting with sleep problems clinicians should investigate napping patterns.

Machine learning approaches to analysing textual injury surveillance data: A systematic review

Objective To synthesise recent research on the use of machine learning approaches to mining textual injury surveillance data. Design Systematic review. Data sources The electronic databases which were searched included PubMed, Cinahl, Medline, Google Scholar, and Proquest. The bibliography of all relevant articles was examined and associated articles were identified using a snowballing technique. Selection criteria For inclusion, articles were required to meet the following criteria: (a) used a health-related database, (b) focused on injury-related cases, AND used machine learning approaches to analyse textual data. Methods The papers identified through the search were screened resulting in 16 papers selected for review. Articles were reviewed to describe the databases and methodology used, the strength and limitations of different techniques, and quality assurance approaches used. Due to heterogeneity between studies meta-analysis was not performed. Results Occupational injuries were the focus of half of the machine learning studies and the most common methods described were Bayesian probability or Bayesian network based methods to either predict injury categories or extract common injury scenarios. Models were evaluated through either comparison with gold standard data or content expert evaluation or statistical measures of quality. Machine learning was found to provide high precision and accuracy when predicting a small number of categories, was valuable for visualisation of injury patterns and prediction of future outcomes. However, difficulties related to generalizability, source data quality, complexity of models and integration of content and technical knowledge were discussed. Conclusions The use of narrative text for injury surveillance has grown in popularity, complexity and quality over recent years. With advances in data mining techniques, increased capacity for analysis of large databases, and involvement of computer scientists in the injury prevention field, along with more comprehensive use and description of quality assurance methods in text mining approaches, it is likely that we will see a continued growth and advancement in knowledge of text mining in the injury field.

Impact of real-time traffic characteristics on freeway crash occurrence: Systematic review and meta-analysis

The development of methods for real-time crash prediction as a function of current or recent traffic and roadway conditions is gaining increasing attention in the literature. Numerous studies have modeled the relationships between traffic characteristics and crash occurrence, and significant progress has been made. Given the accumulated evidence on this topic and the lack of an articulate summary of research status, challenges, and opportunities, there is an urgent need to scientifically review these studies and to synthesize the existing state-of-the-art knowledge. This paper addresses this need by undertaking a systematic literature review to identify current knowledge, challenges, and opportunities, and then conducts a meta-analysis of existing studies to provide a summary impact of traffic characteristics on crash occurrence. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess quality, publication bias, and outlier bias of the various studies; and the time intervals used to measure traffic characteristics were also considered. As a result of this comprehensive and systematic review, issues in study designs, traffic and crash data, and model development and validation are discussed. Outcomes of this study are intended to provide researchers focused on real-time crash prediction with greater insight into the modeling of this important but extremely challenging safety issue.

Predicting intentions and behaviours in populations with or at-risk of diabetes: A systematic review

Purpose To systematically review the Theory of Planned Behaviour studies predicting self-care intentions and behaviours in populations with and at-risk of diabetes. Methods A systematic review using six electronic databases was conducted in 2013. A standardised protocol was used for appraisal. Studies eligibility included a measure of behaviour for healthy eating, physical activity, glucose monitoring, medication use (ii) the TPB variables (iii) the TPB tested in populations with diabetes or at-risk. Results Sixteen studies were appraised for testing the utility of the TPB. Studies included cross-sectional (n=7); prospective (n=5) and randomised control trials (n=4). Intention (18% – 76%) was the most predictive construct for all behaviours. Explained variance for intentions were similar across cross-sectional (28 -76%); prospective (28 -73%); and RCT studies (18 - 63%). RCTs (18 - 43%) provided slightly stronger evidence for predicting behaviour. Conclusions Few studies tested predictability of the TPB in populations with or at-risk of diabetes. This review highlighted differences in the predictive utility of the TPB suggesting that the model is behaviour and population specific. Findings on key determinants of specific behaviours contribute to a better understanding of mechanisms of behaviour change and are useful in designing targeted behavioural interventions for different diabetes populations.

Systematic constellations of neurons are activated in lateral amygdala following Pavlovian fear conditioning

How memory is organized within neural networks is a fundamental question in neuroscience. We used Pavlovian fear conditioning to study the discrete organization patterns of neurons activated in an associative memory paradigm. In Pavlovian fear conditioning a neutral stimulus, such as an auditory tone, is temporally paired with an aversive unconditioned stimulus (US), such as a foot shock...

Emergency department models of care in the context of care quality and cost: A systematic review

To identify current ED models of care and their impact on care quality, care effectiveness, and cost. A systematic search of key health databases (Medline, CINAHL, Cochrane, EMbase) was conducted to identify literature on ED models of care. Additionally, a focused review of the contents of 11 international and national emergency medicine, nursing and health economic journals (published between 2010 and 2013) was undertaken with snowball identification of references of the most recent and relevant papers. Articles published between 1998 and 2013 in the English language were included for initial review by three of the authors. Studies in underdeveloped countries and not addressing the objectives of the present study were excluded. Relevant details were extracted from the retrieved literature, and analysed for relevance and impact. The literature was synthesised around the study's main themes. Models described within the literature mainly focused on addressing issues at the input, throughput or output stages of ED care delivery. Models often varied to account for site specific characteristics (e.g. onsite inpatient units) or to suit staffing profiles (e.g. extended scope physiotherapist), ED geographical location (e.g. metropolitan or rural site), and patient demographic profile (e.g. paediatrics, older persons, ethnicity). Only a few studies conducted cost-effectiveness analysis of service models. Although various models of delivering emergency healthcare exist, further research is required in order to make accurate and reliable assessments of their safety, clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness.

The effectiveness of education or behavioral interventions on adherence to phosphate control in adults receiving hemodialysis: A systematic review protocol

The objective of this review is to identify the effectiveness of education or behavioral interventions on adherence to phosphate control in adults with end stage kidney disease (ESKD) receiving hemodialysis (HD).

Depth of anaesthesia monitoring during procedural sedation and analgesia: A systematic review protocol

Background Procedural sedation and analgesia (PSA) is used to attenuate the pain and distress that may otherwise be experienced during diagnostic and interventional medical or dental procedures. As the risk of adverse events increases with the depth of sedation induced, frequent monitoring of level of consciousness is recommended. Level of consciousness is usually monitored during PSA with clinical observation. Processed electroencephalogram-based depth of anaesthesia (DoA) monitoring devices provide an alternative method to monitor level of consciousness that can be used in addition to clinical observation. However, there is uncertainty as to whether their routine use in PSA would be justified. Rigorous evaluation of the clinical benefits of DoA monitors during PSA, including comprehensive syntheses of the available evidence, is therefore required. One potential clinical benefit of using DoA monitoring during PSA is that the technology could improve patient safety by reducing sedation-related adverse events, such as death or permanent neurological disability. We hypothesise that earlier identification of lapses into deeper than intended levels of sedation using DoA monitoring leads to more effective titration of sedative and analgesic medications, and results in a reduction in the risk of adverse events caused by the consequences of over-sedation, such as hypoxaemia. The primary objective of this review is to determine whether using DoA monitoring during PSA in the hospital setting improves patient safety by reducing the risk of hypoxaemia (defined as an arterial partial pressure of oxygen below 60 mmHg or percentage of haemoglobin that is saturated with oxygen [SpO2] less than 90 %). Other potential clinical benefits of using DoA monitoring devices during sedation will be assessed as secondary outcomes. Methods/design Electronic databases will be systematically searched for randomized controlled trials comparing the use of depth of anaesthesia monitoring devices with clinical observation of level of consciousness during PSA. Language restrictions will not be imposed. Screening, study selection and data extraction will be performed by two independent reviewers. Disagreements will be resolved by discussion. Meta-analyses will be performed if suitable. Discussion This review will synthesise the evidence on an important potential clinical benefit of DoA monitoring during PSA within hospital settings.

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. METHODS We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. FINDINGS In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. INTERPRETATION Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children.