506 resultados para POPULATION CHANGE
Resumo:
In response to concerns about the quality of English Language Learning (ELL) education at tertiary level, the Chinese Ministry of Education (CMoE) launched the College English Reform Program (CERP) in 2004. By means of a press release (CMoE, 2005) and a guideline document titled College English Curriculum Requirements (CECR) (CMoE, 2007), the CERP proposed two major changes to the College English assessment policy, which were: (1) the shift to optional status for the compulsory external test, the College English Test Band 4 (CET4); and (2) the incorporation of formative assessment into the existing summative assessment framework. This study investigated the interactions between the College English assessment policy change, the theoretical underpinnings, and the assessment practices within two Chinese universities (one Key University and one Non-Key University). It adopted a sociocultural theoretical perspective to examine the implementation process as experienced by local actors of institutional and classroom levels. Systematic data analysis using a constant comparative method (Merriam, 1998) revealed that contextual factors and implementation issues did not lead to significant differences in the two cases. Lack of training in assessment and the sociocultural factors such as the traditional emphasis on the product of learning and hierarchical teacher/students relationship are decisive and responsible for the limited effect of the reform.
Resumo:
Maternal and infant mortality is a global health issue with a significant social and economic impact. Each year, over half a million women worldwide die due to complications related to pregnancy or childbirth, four million infants die in the first 28 days of life, and eight million infants die in the first year. Ninety-nine percent of maternal and infant deaths are in developing countries. Reducing maternal and infant mortality is among the key international development goals. In China, the national maternal mortality ratio and infant mortality rate were reduced greatly in the past two decades, yet a large discrepancy remains between urban and rural areas. To address this problem, a large-scale Safe Motherhood Programme was initiated in 2000. The programme was implemented in Guangxi in 2003. Interventions in the programme included both demand-side and supply side-interventions focusing on increasing health service use and improving birth outcomes. Little is known about the effects and economic outcomes of the Safe Motherhood Programme in Guangxi, although it has been implemented for seven years. The aim of this research is to estimate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme in Guangxi, China. The objectives of this research include: 1. To evaluate whether the changes of health service use and birth outcomes are associated with the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme. 2. To estimate the cost-effectiveness of the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme and quantify the uncertainty surrounding the decision. 3. To assess the expected value of perfect information associated with both the whole decision and individual parameters, and interpret the findings to inform priority setting in further research and policy making in this area. A quasi-experimental study design was used in this research to assess the effectiveness of the programme in increasing health service use and improving birth outcomes. The study subjects were 51 intervention counties and 30 control counties. Data on the health service use, birth outcomes and socio-economic factors from 2001 to 2007 were collected from the programme database and statistical yearbooks. Based on the profile plots of the data, general linear mixed models were used to evaluate the effectiveness of the programme while controlling for the effects of baseline levels of the response variables, change of socio-economic factors over time and correlations among repeated measurements from the same county. Redundant multicollinear variables were deleted from the mixed model using the results of the multicollinearity diagnoses. For each response variable, the best covariance structure was selected from 15 alternatives according to the fit statistics including Akaike information criterion, Finite-population corrected Akaike information criterion, and Schwarz.s Bayesian information criterion. Residual diagnostics were used to validate the model assumptions. Statistical inferences were made to show the effect of the programme on health service use and birth outcomes. A decision analytic model was developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the programme, quantify the decision uncertainty, and estimate the expected value of perfect information associated with the decision. The model was used to describe the transitions between health states for women and infants and reflect the change of both costs and health benefits associated with implementing the programme. Result gained from the mixed models and other relevant evidence identified were synthesised appropriately to inform the input parameters of the model. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of the programme were calculated for the two groups of intervention counties over time. Uncertainty surrounding the parameters was dealt with using probabilistic sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty relating to model assumptions was handled using scenario analysis. Finally the expected value of perfect information for both the whole model and individual parameters in the model were estimated to inform priority setting in further research in this area.The annual change rates of the antenatal care rate and the institutionalised delivery rate were improved significantly in the intervention counties after the programme was implemented. Significant improvements were also found in the annual change rates of the maternal mortality ratio, the infant mortality rate, the incidence rate of neonatal tetanus and the mortality rate of neonatal tetanus in the intervention counties after the implementation of the programme. The annual change rate of the neonatal mortality rate was also improved, although the improvement was only close to statistical significance. The influences of the socio-economic factors on the health service use indicators and birth outcomes were identified. The rural income per capita had a significant positive impact on the health service use indicators, and a significant negative impact on the birth outcomes. The number of beds in healthcare institutions per 1,000 population and the number of rural telephone subscribers per 1,000 were found to be positively significantly related to the institutionalised delivery rate. The length of highway per square kilometre negatively influenced the maternal mortality ratio. The percentage of employed persons in the primary industry had a significant negative impact on the institutionalised delivery rate, and a significant positive impact on the infant mortality rate and neonatal mortality rate. The incremental costs of implementing the programme over the existing practice were US $11.1 million from the societal perspective, and US $13.8 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. Overall, 28,711 life years were generated by the programme, producing an overall incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US $386 from the societal perspective, and US $480 from the perspective of the Ministry of Health, both of which were below the threshold willingness-to-pay ratio of US $675. The expected net monetary benefit generated by the programme was US $8.3 million from the societal perspective, and US $5.5 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. The overall probability that the programme was cost-effective was 0.93 and 0.89 from the two perspectives, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the programme was insensitive to the different estimates of the three parameters relating to the model assumptions. Further research could be conducted to reduce the uncertainty surrounding the decision, in which the upper limit of investment was US $0.6 million from the societal perspective, and US $1.3 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. It is also worthwhile to get a more precise estimate of the improvement of infant mortality rate. The population expected value of perfect information for individual parameters associated with this parameter was US $0.99 million from the societal perspective, and US $1.14 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. The findings from this study have shown that the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme were both effective and cost-effective in increasing health service use and improving birth outcomes in rural areas of Guangxi, China. Therefore, the programme represents a good public health investment and should be adopted and further expanded to an even broader area if possible. This research provides economic evidence to inform efficient decision making in improving maternal and infant health in developing countries.
Resumo:
Parkinson's disease (PD) patients may be at higher risk of malnutrition because of the symptoms associated with the disease and the side effects of the medication used to manage it. A decline in nutritional status is associated with many adverse outcomes related to health and quality of life. It is not clear, however, to what extent this population is currently affected by malnutrition. The objective of this review was to systematically assess the methodology and outcomes of studies reporting the prevalence of malnutrition in PD patients. Studies that attempted to classify participants with PD into nutritional risk and/or malnutrition categories using body mass index, weight change, anthropometric measures, and nutritional screening and assessment scores were included. The prevalence of malnutrition ranged from 0% to 24% in PD patients, while 3–60% of PD patients were reported to be at risk of malnutrition. There was a large degree of variation among studies in the methods chosen, the definition of malnutrition using those methods, and the detail in which the methodological protocols were reported. The true extent of malnutrition in the PD population has yet to be accurately quantified. It is important, however, to screen for malnutrition at the time of PD diagnosis.
Resumo:
This special feature section of Journal of Management & Organization (Volume 17/1 - March 2011) sets out to widen understanding of the processes of stability and change in today's organizations, with a particular emphasis on the contribution of institutional approaches to organizational studies. Institutional perspectives on organization theory assume that rational, economic calculations, such as the maximization of profits or the optimization of resource allocation, are not sufficient to understand the behavior of organizations and their strategic choices. Institutionalists acknowledge the great uncertainty associated with the conduct of organizations and suggest that taken-for-granted values, beliefs and meanings within and outside organizations also play an important role in the determination of legitimate action.
Resumo:
This paper presents a review on the use of tethered nitroxide–fluorophore molecules as probes of oxidative change and free radical generation and reaction. The proximity of the nitroxide free radical to the fluorophore suppresses the normal fluorescence emission process. Nitroxide free radical scavenging, metabolism or redox chemistry return the system to its natural fluorescent state and so these tethered nitroxide–fluorophore molecules are described as being profluorescent. A survey of profluorescent nitroxides found in the literature is provided as well as background on the mechanism of action and applications of these compounds as fluorometric probes within the fields of biological, materials and environmental sciences.
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The stochastic simulation algorithm was introduced by Gillespie and in a different form by Kurtz. There have been many attempts at accelerating the algorithm without deviating from the behavior of the simulated system. The crux of the explicit τ-leaping procedure is the use of Poisson random variables to approximate the number of occurrences of each type of reaction event during a carefully selected time period, τ. This method is acceptable providing the leap condition, that no propensity function changes “significantly” during any time-step, is met. Using this method there is a possibility that species numbers can, artificially, become negative. Several recent papers have demonstrated methods that avoid this situation. One such method classifies, as critical, those reactions in danger of sending species populations negative. At most, one of these critical reactions is allowed to occur in the next time-step. We argue that the criticality of a reactant species and its dependent reaction channels should be related to the probability of the species number becoming negative. This way only reactions that, if fired, produce a high probability of driving a reactant population negative are labeled critical. The number of firings of more reaction channels can be approximated using Poisson random variables thus speeding up the simulation while maintaining the accuracy. In implementing this revised method of criticality selection we make use of the probability distribution from which the random variable describing the change in species number is drawn. We give several numerical examples to demonstrate the effectiveness of our new method.
Resumo:
Alliances, with other inter-organisational forms, have become a strategy of choice and necessity for both the private and public sectors. From initial formation, alliances develop and change in different ways, with research suggesting that many alliances will be terminated without their potential value being realised. Alliance process theorists address this phenomenon, seeking explanations as to why alliances unfold the way they do. However, these explanations have generally focussed on economic and structural determinants: empirically, little is known about how and why the agency of alliance actors shapes the alliance path. Theorists have suggested that current alliance process theory has provided valuable, but partial accounts of alliance development, which could be usefully extended by considering social and individual factors. The purpose of this research therefore was to extend alliance process theory by exploring individual agency as an explanation of alliance events and in doing so, reveal the potential of a multi-frame approach for understanding alliance process. Through an historical study of a single, rich case of alliance process, this thesis provided three explanations for the sequence of alliance events, each informed by a different theoretical perspective. The explanatory contribution of the Individual Agency (IA) perspective was distilled through juxtaposition with the perspectives of Environmental Determinism (ED) and Indeterminacy/Chance (I/C). The research produced a number of findings. First, it provided empirical support for the tentative proposition that the choices and practices of alliance actors are partially explanatory of alliance change and that these practices are particular to the alliance context. Secondly, the study found that examining the case through three theoretical frames provided a more complete explanation. Two propositions were put forward as to how individual agency can be theorised within this three-perspective framework. Finally, the case explained which alliance actors were required to shape alliance decision making in this case and why.
Resumo:
Purpose – The aim of this paper is to examine the process of change in an Australian not-for-profit organization, from a cash-based to an accrual-based accounting system. Its particular focus is the relationship between the image portrayed by accrual accounting adoption and the technical realities of the new system. Design/methodology/approach – Data were gathered from interviews, documents and meetings, and were contextualized and interpreted using institutional theory. Findings – The decision to change to accrual accounting was made at the top of the organizational hierarchy in response to institutional pressure to present a corporate image. The implementation of the new system was poorly conceived, inadequately resourced, and hampered by an authoritarian structure that effectively ignored the technical incompetence and training needs of many accounting staff. This resulted in an accounting system half way between cash and accrual, and very different from the system as it had been promoted. The process caused conflict at all levels of the organizational hierarchy. Research limitations/implications – Accounting in not-for-profit organizations is an under-researched area offering potential for fruitful research in a changing institutional landscape. This institutional approach, while offering just one interpretation of the qualitative data gathered in this project, provides valuable insights about the process of change. Practical implications – Not-for-profit organizations play a vital economic and social role, and need carefully to assess their responses to ongoing institutional pressures. In implementing change, they face the challenge of balancing the promotion of an institutionally acceptable image and the need for technical efficiencies. Originality/value – The examination of change in an organization provides a rich context for the exploration of the dynamic, problematic process by which a new accounting practice is embedded and institutionalized. Keywords Institutional theory, Not-for-profit organizations, Accrual accounting, Change process, Qualitative research, Change management, Decision making, Training needs, Australia Paper type Research paper
Resumo:
The Giant Long-Armed Prawn, Macrobrachium lar is a freshwater species native to the Indo-Pacific. M. lar has a long-lived, passive, pelagic marine larval stage where larvae need to colonise freshwater within three months to complete their development. Dispersal is likely to be influenced by the extensive distances larvae must transit between small oceanic islands to find suitable freshwater habitat, and by prevailing east to west wind and ocean currents in the southern Pacific Ocean. Thus, both intrinsic and extrinsic factors are likely to influence wild population structure in this species. The present study sought to define the contemporary broad and fine-scale population genetic structure of Macrobrachium lar in the south-western Pacific Ocean. Three polymorphic microsatellite loci were used to assess patterns of genetic variation within and among 19 wild adult sample sites. Statistical procedures that partition variation implied that at both spatial scales, essentially all variation was present within sample sites and differentiation among sites was low. Any differentiation observed also was not correlated with geographical distance. Statistical approaches that measure genetic distance, at the broad-scale, showed that all south-western Pacific Islands were essentially homogeneous, with the exception of a well supported divergent Cook Islands group. These findings are likely the result of some combination of factors that may include the potential for allelic homoplasy, through to the effects of sampling regime. Based on the findings, there is most likely a divergent M. lar Cook Islands clade in the south-western Pacific Ocean, resulting from prevailing ocean currents. Confirmation of this pattern will require a more detailed analysis of nDNA variation using a larger number of loci and, where possible, use of larger population sizes.
Resumo:
Diabetes is an increasingly prevalent disease worldwide. Providing early management of the complications can prevent morbidity and mortality in this population. Peripheral neuropathy, a significant complication of diabetes, is the major cause of foot ulceration and amputation in diabetes. Delay in attending to complication of the disease contributes to significant medical expenses for diabetic patients and the community. Early structural changes to the neural components of the retina have been demonstrated to occur prior to the clinically visible retinal vasculature complication of diabetic retinopathy. Additionally visual functionloss has been shown to exist before the ophthalmoscopic manifestations of vasculature damage. The purpose of this thesis was to evaluate the relationship between diabetic peripheral neuropathy and both retinal structure and visual function. The key question was whether diabetic peripheral neuropathy is the potential underlying factor responsible for retinal anatomical change and visual functional loss in people with diabetes. This study was conducted on a cohort with type 2 diabetes. Retinal nerve fibre layer thickness was assessed by means of Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT). Visual function was assessed using two different methods; Standard Automated Perimetry (SAP) and flicker perimetry were performed within the central 30 degrees of fixation. The level of diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN) was assessed using two techniques - Quantitative Sensory Testing and Neuropathy Disability Score (NDS). These techniques are known to be capable of detecting DPN at very early stages. NDS has also been shown as a gold standard for detecting 'risk of foot ulceration'. Findings reported in this thesis showed that RNFL thickness, particularly in the inferior quadrant, has a significant association with severity of DPN when the condition has been assessed using NDS. More specifically it was observed that inferior RNFL thickness has the ability to differentiate individuals who are at higher risk of foot ulceration from those who are at lower risk, indicating that RNFL thickness can predict late-staged DPN. Investigating the association between RNFL and QST did not show any meaningful interaction, which indicates that RNFL thickness for this cohort was not as predictive of neuropathy status as NDS. In both of these studies, control participants did not have different results from the type 2 cohort who did not DPN suggesting that RNFL thickness is not a marker for diagnosing DPN at early stages. The latter finding also indicated that diabetes per se, is unlikely to affect the RNFL thickness. Visual function as measured by SAP and flicker perimetry was found to be associated with severity of peripheral neuropathy as measured by NDS. These findings were also capable of differentiating individuals at higher risk of foot ulceration; however, visual function also proved not to be a maker for early diagnosis of DPN. It was found that neither SAP, nor flicker sensitivity have meaningful associations with DPN when neuropathy status was measured using QST. Importantly diabetic retinopathy did not explain any of the findings in these experiments. The work described here is valuable as no other research to date has investigated the association between diabetic peripheral neuropathy and either retinal structure or visual function.
Resumo:
Most learning paradigms impose a particular syntax on the class of concepts to be learned; the chosen syntax can dramatically affect whether the class is learnable or not. For classification paradigms, where the task is to determine whether the underlying world does or does not have a particular property, how that property is represented has no implication on the power of a classifier that just outputs 1’s or 0’s. But is it possible to give a canonical syntactic representation of the class of concepts that are classifiable according to the particular criteria of a given paradigm? We provide a positive answer to this question for classification in the limit paradigms in a logical setting, with ordinal mind change bounds as a measure of complexity. The syntactic characterization that emerges enables to derive that if a possibly noncomputable classifier can perform the task assigned to it by the paradigm, then a computable classifier can also perform the same task. The syntactic characterization is strongly related to the difference hierarchy over the class of open sets of some topological space; this space is naturally defined from the class of possible worlds and possible data of the learning paradigm.
Resumo:
While purporting to enhance Australia’s sustainability, the federal government’s Population Strategy rejects the assessment of the limiting factors to future population growth, thus avoiding urgent threshold issues such as resource depletion and environmental destruction. A more forward-thinking and whole-system perspective would assess and incorporate critical biophysical limits into governance processes with suitable prioritisation. It would encourage communities to examine their individual and collective responsibilities in the context of these limits in order to most equitably optimise outcomes; and it would employ both a resource-based examination of minimum population requirements, and an impact-based assessment of maximum thresholds. This carrying capacity approach to planning could help guide society towards a more sustainable future.
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Boundary spanning links organisations to one another in order to create mutually beneficial relationships; it is a concept developed and used in organisational theory but rarely used to understand organisational structures in higher education (Pruitt & Schwartz, 1999). Yet understanding boundary spanning activity has the capacity to help universities respond to demands for continuous quality improvement, and to increase capacity to react to environmental uncertainty. At a time of rapid change characterised by a fluctuating economic environment, globalisation, increased mobility, and ecological issues, boundary spanning could be viewed as a key element in assisting institutions in effectively understanding and responding to such change. The literature suggests that effective boundary spanning could help universities improve organisational performance, use of infrastructure and resources, intergroup relations, leadership styles, performance and levels of job satisfaction, technology transfer, knowledge creation, and feedback processes, amongst other things. Our research aims to put a face on boundary spanning (Miller, 2008) by contextualising it within organisational systems and structures in university departments responsible for work related programs i.e. Work Integrated Learning (WIL) and Co-operative Education (Co-op). In this paper these approaches are referred to collectively as work related programs. The authors formed a research team in Victoria, British Columbia in 2009 at a sponsored international research forum, Two Days in June. The purpose of the invitation-only forum was to investigate commonalities and differences across programs and to formulate an international research agenda for work related programs over the next five to ten years. Researchers from Queensland University of Technology, University of Cincinnati, Baden-Wuerttemberg Cooperative State University, University of Ottawa,and Dublin City University agreed that further research was needed into the impact stakeholders, organisational systems, structures, policies, and practices have on departments delivering work related programs. This paper illustrates how policy and practice across the five institutions can be better understood through the lens of boundary spanning. It is argued that boundary spanning is an area of theory and practice with great applicability to a better understanding of the activity of these departments. The paper concludes by proposing topics for future research to examine how boundary spanning can be used to better understand practice and change in work related programs.
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Some evidence in the area of make-buy decisions for new technologies suggests that it is a good idea for a company to pursue a fairly rigorous ''make'' policy in the early days of a potentially disruptive innovation. Other studies prescribe exactly the opposite, promoting instead a ''buy'' strategy. This paper seeks to bridge the gap between these perspectives by suggesting that both strategies are valid, but that they are most successfully applied in different market environments. The ''make'' prescription may be more suited to either extremely fast or extremely slow rates of technological change, while a ''buy'' strategy might be more appropriate in market sectors where technologies evolve at a medium pace. This paper highlights the importance of industry clockspeed and supplier relationships in make-buy decisions for new technologies, and puts forward two new hypotheses that require empirical testing.