Bayesian predictive modeling and comparison of oil samples

Statistical comparison of oil samples is an integral part of oil spill identification, which deals with the process of linking an oil spill with its source of origin. In current practice, a frequentist hypothesis test is often used to evaluate evidence in support of a match between a spill and a source sample. As frequentist tests are only able to evaluate evidence against a hypothesis but not in support of it, we argue that this leads to unsound statistical reasoning. Moreover, currently only verbal conclusions on a very coarse scale can be made about the match between two samples, whereas a finer quantitative assessment would often be preferred. To address these issues, we propose a Bayesian predictive approach for evaluating the similarity between the chemical compositions of two oil samples. We derive the underlying statistical model from some basic assumptions on modeling assays in analytical chemistry, and to further facilitate and improve numerical evaluations, we develop analytical expressions for the key elements of Bayesian inference for this model. The approach is illustrated with both simulated and real data and is shown to have appealing properties in comparison with both standard frequentist and Bayesian approaches

Changes in lycopene and beta carotene contents in aril and oil of gac fruit during storage

Gac fruits were physically measured and stored under ambient conditions for up to 2 weeks to observe changes in carotenoid contents (lycopene and beta carotene) in its aril. Initial concentrations in the aril of lycopene were from 2.378 mg/g fresh weight (FW) to 3.728 mg/g FW and those of beta carotene were from 0.257 to 0.379 mg/g FW. Carotenoid concentrations in the aril remained stable after 1 week but sharply declined after 2 weeks of storage. Gac oil, pressed from gac aril, has similar concentrations of lycopene and beta carotene (2.436 and 2.592 mg/g, respectively). Oil was treated with 0.02% of butylated hydroxytoluene, or with a stream of nitrogen or untreated then stored in the dark for up to 15 or 19 weeks under different temperatures (5 °C, ambient, 45 and 60 °C). Lycopene and beta carotene in control gac oil degraded following the first-order kinetic model. The degradation rate of lycopene and beta carotene in the treated oil samples were lower than that in the control oil but the first-order kinetic was not always followed. However, both lycopene and beta carotene degraded quickly in gac oil with the first-order kinetic under high temperature conditions (45 and 60 °C) regardless of the treatments used. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Determination of tricyclazole in water using solid phase extraction and liquid chromatography

A method for determination of tricyclazole in water using solid phase extraction and high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) with UV detection at 230nm and a mobile phase of acetonitrile:water (20:80, v/v) was developed. A performance comparison between two types of solid phase sorbents, the C18 sorbent of Supelclean ENVI-18 cartridge and the styrene-divinyl benzene copolymer sorbent of Sep-Pak PS2-Plus cartridge was conducted. The Sep-Pak PS2-Plus cartridges were found more suitable for extracting tricyclazole from water samples than the Supelclean ENVI-18 cartridges. For this cartridge, both methanol and ethyl acetate produced good results. The method was validated with good linearity and with a limit of detection of 0.008gL-1 for a 500-fold concentration through the SPE procedure. The recoveries of the method were stable at 80% and the precision was from 1.1-6.0% within the range of fortified concentrations. The validated method was also applied to measure the concentrations of tricyclazole in real paddy water.

Designs for phase I clinical trials with multiple courses of subjects at different doses

The goal of this article is to provide a new design framework and its corresponding estimation for phase I trials. Existing phase I designs assign each subject to one dose level based on responses from previous subjects. Yet it is possible that subjects with neither toxicity nor efficacy responses can be treated at higher dose levels, and their subsequent responses to higher doses will provide more information. In addition, for some trials, it might be possible to obtain multiple responses (repeated measures) from a subject at different dose levels. In this article, a nonparametric estimation method is developed for such studies. We also explore how the designs of multiple doses per subject can be implemented to improve design efficiency. The gain of efficiency from "single dose per subject" to "multiple doses per subject" is evaluated for several scenarios. Our numerical study shows that using "multiple doses per subject" and the proposed estimation method together increases the efficiency substantially.

A Bayesian decision approach for sample size determination in phase II trials

Stallard (1998, Biometrics 54, 279-294) recently used Bayesian decision theory for sample-size determination in phase II trials. His design maximizes the expected financial gains in the development of a new treatment. However, it results in a very high probability (0.65) of recommending an ineffective treatment for phase III testing. On the other hand, the expected gain using his design is more than 10 times that of a design that tightly controls the false positive error (Thall and Simon, 1994, Biometrics 50, 337-349). Stallard's design maximizes the expected gain per phase II trial, but it does not maximize the rate of gain or total gain for a fixed length of time because the rate of gain depends on the proportion: of treatments forwarding to the phase III study. We suggest maximizing the rate of gain, and the resulting optimal one-stage design becomes twice as efficient as Stallard's one-stage design. Furthermore, the new design has a probability of only 0.12 of passing an ineffective treatment to phase III study.

Isotonic designs for phase I trials

The purpose of a phase I trial in cancer is to determine the level (dose) of the treatment under study that has an acceptable level of adverse effects. Although substantial progress has recently been made in this area using parametric approaches, the method that is widely used is based on treating small cohorts of patients at escalating doses until the frequency of toxicities seen at a dose exceeds a predefined tolerable toxicity rate. This method is popular because of its simplicity and freedom from parametric assumptions. In this payer, we consider cases in which it is undesirable to assume a parametric dose-toxicity relationship. We propose a simple model-free approach by modifying the method that is in common use. The approach assumes toxicity is nondecreasing with dose and fits an isotonic regression to accumulated data. At any point in a trial, the dose given is that with estimated toxicity deemed closest to the maximum tolerable toxicity. Simulations indicate that this approach performs substantially better than the commonly used method and it compares favorably with other phase I designs.

Predicting a new phase (T′′) of two-dimensional transition metal di-chalcogenides and strain-controlled topological phase transition

Single layered transition metal dichalcogenides have attracted tremendous research interest due to their structural phase diversities. By using a global optimization approach, we have discovered a new phase of transition metal dichalcogenides (labelled as T′′), which is confirmed to be energetically, dynamically and kinetically stable by our first-principles calculations. The new T′′ MoS2 phase exhibits an intrinsic quantum spin Hall (QSH) effect with a nontrivial gap as large as 0.42 eV, suggesting that a two-dimensional (2D) topological insulator can be achieved at room temperature. Most interestingly, there is a topological phase transition simply driven by a small tensile strain of up to 2%. Furthermore, all the known MX2 (M = Mo or W; X = S, Se or Te) monolayers in the new T′′ phase unambiguously display similar band topologies and strain controlled topological phase transitions. Our findings greatly enrich the 2D families of transition metal dichalcogenides and offer a feasible way to control the electronic states of 2D topological insulators for the fabrication of high-speed spintronics devices.

Queensland pharmacist immunisation pilot phase 1 pharmacist vaccination - Influenza final report

The results of the pilot demonstrated that a pharmacist delivered vaccinations services is feasible in community pharmacy and is safe and effective. The accessibility of the pharmacist across the influenza season provided the opportunity for more people to be vaccinated, particularly those who had never received an influenza vaccine before. Patient satisfaction was extremely high with nearly all patients happy to recommend the service and to return again next year. Factors critical to the success of the service were: 1. Appropriate facilities 2. Competent pharmacists 3. Practice and decision support tools 4. In-­‐store implementation support We demonstrated in the pilot that vaccination recipients preferred a private consultation area. As the level of privacy afforded to the patients increased (private room vs. booth), so did the numbers of patients vaccinated. We would therefore recommend that the minimum standard of a private consultation room or closed-­‐in booth, with adequate space for multiple chairs and a work / consultation table be considered for provision of any vaccination services. The booth or consultation room should be used exclusively for delivering patient services and should not contain other general office equipment, nor be used as storage for stock. The pilot also demonstrated that a pharmacist-­‐specific training program produced competent and confident vaccinators and that this program can be used to retrofit the profession with these skills. As vaccination is within the scope of pharmacist practice as defined by the Pharmacy Board of Australia, there is potential for the universities to train their undergraduates with this skill and provide a pharmacist vaccination workforce in the near future. It is therefore essential to explore appropriate changes to the legislation to facilitate pharmacists’ practice in this area. Given the level of pharmacology and medicines knowledge of pharmacists, combined with their new competency of providing vaccinations through administering injections, it is reasonable to explore additional vaccines that pharmacists could administer in the community setting. At the time of writing, QPIP has already expanded into Phase 2, to explore pharmacists vaccinating for whooping cough and measles. Looking at the international experience of pharmacist delivered vaccination, we would recommend considering expansion to other vaccinations in the future including travel vaccinations, HPV and selected vaccinations to those under the age of 18 years. Overall the results of the QPIP implementation have demonstrated that an appropriately trained pharmacist can deliver safely and effectively influenza vaccinations to adult patients in the community. The QPIP showed the value that the accessibility of pharmacists brings to public health outcomes through improved access to vaccinations and the ability to increase immunisation rates in the general population. Over time with the expansion of pharmacist vaccination services this will help to achieve more effective herd immunity for some of the many diseases which currently have suboptimal immunisation rates.

Crude oil and agricultural futures: An analysis of correlation dynamics

Correlations between oil and agricultural commodities have varied over previous decades, impacted by renewable fuels policy and turbulent economic conditions. We estimate smooth transition conditional correlation models for 12 agricultural commodities and WTI crude oil. While a structural change in correlations occurred concurrently with the introduction of biofuel policy, oil and food price levels are also key influences. High correlation between biofuel feedstocks and oil is more likely to occur when food and oil price levels are high. Correlation with oil returns is strong for biofuel feedstocks, unlike with other agricultural futures, suggesting limited contagion from energy to food markets.

Phase accumulated carrier pulse width modulation

An alternative approach to digital PWM generation uses an accumulator rather than a counter to generate the carrier. This offers several advantages. The resolution and gain of the pulse width modulator remain constant regardless of the module clock frequency and PWM output frequency. The PWM resolution also becomes fixed at the register width. Even at high PWM frequencies, the resolution remains high when averaged over a number of PWM cycles. An inherent dithering of the PWM waveform introduced over successive cycles blurs the switching spectra without distorting the modulating waveform. The technique also lends itself to easily generating several phase shifted PWM waveforms suitable for multilevel converter modulation. Several example waveforms generated using both simulation and FPGA hardware are presented.

Using Big Data to manage safety-related risk in the upstream oil and gas industry: A research agenda

Despite considerable effort and a broad range of new approaches to safety management over the years, the upstream oil & gas industry has been frustrated by the sector’s stubbornly high rate of injuries and fatalities. This short communication points out, however, that the industry may be in a position to make considerable progress by applying “Big Data” analytical tools to the large volumes of safety-related data that have been collected by these organizations. Toward making this case, we examine existing safety-related information management practices in the upstream oil & gas industry, and specifically note that data in this sector often tends to be highly customized, difficult to analyze using conventional quantitative tools, and frequently ignored. We then contend that the application of new Big Data kinds of analytical techniques could potentially reveal patterns and trends that have been hidden or unknown thus far, and argue that these tools could help the upstream oil & gas sector to improve its injury and fatality statistics. Finally, we offer a research agenda toward accelerating the rate at which Big Data and new analytical capabilities could play a material role in helping the industry to improve its health and safety performance.

Superhydrophobic fabrics for oil-water separation based on the metal organic charge transfer complex CuTCNAQ

This work reports on the fabrication of a superhydrophobic nylon textile based on the organic charge transfer complex CuTCNAQ (TCNAQ = 11,11,12,12-tetracyanoanthraquinodimethane). The nylon fabric that is metallized with copper undergoes a spontaneous chemical reaction with TCNAQ dissolved in acetonitrile to form nanorods of CuTCNAQ that are intertwined over the entire surface of the fabric. This creates the necessary micro and nanoscale roughness that is required for the Cassie-Baxter state thereby achieving a superhydrophobic/superoleophilic surface without the need for a fluorinated surface. The material is characterised with SEM, FT-IR and XPS spectroscopy and investigated for its ability to separate oil and water in two modes, namely under gravity and as an absorbent. It is found that the fabric can separate dichloromethane, olive oil and crude oil from water and in fact reduce the water content of the oil during the separation process. The fabric is reusable and tolerant to conditions such as seawater, hydrochloric acid and extensive time periods on the shelf. Given that CuTCNAQ is a copper based semiconductor may also open up the possibility of other applications in areas such as photocatalysis and antibacterial applications.

Electronic Building Passport - Final Report: Project 2 National Energy Efficient Building Project Phase 2

The National Energy Efficient Building Project (NEEBP) Phase One report, published in December 2014, investigated “process issues and systemic failures” in the administration of the energy performance requirements in the National Construction Code. It found that most stakeholders believed that under-compliance with these requirements is widespread across Australia, with similar issues being reported in all states and territories. The report found that many different factors were contributing to this outcome and, as a result, many recommendations were offered that together would be expected to remedy the systemic issues reported. To follow up on this Phase 1 report, three additional projects were commissioned as part of Phase 2 of the overall NEEBP project. This Report deals with the development and piloting of an Electronic Building Passport (EBP) tool – a project undertaken jointly by pitt&sherry and a team at the Queensland University of Technology (QUT) led by Dr Wendy Miller. The other Phase 2 projects cover audits of Class 1 buildings and issues relating to building alterations and additions. The passport concept aims to provide all stakeholders with (controlled) access to the key documentation and information that they need to verify the energy performance of buildings. This trial project deals with residential buildings but in principle could apply to any building type. Nine councils were recruited to help develop and test a pilot electronic building passport tool. The participation of these councils – across all states – enabled an assessment of the extent to which these councils are currently utilising documentation; to track the compliance of residential buildings with the energy performance requirements in the National Construction Code (NCC). Overall we found that none of the participating councils are currently compiling all of the energy performance-related documentation that would demonstrate code compliance. The key reasons for this include: a major lack of clarity on precisely what documentation should be collected; cost and budget pressures; low public/stakeholder demand for the documentation; and a pragmatic judgement that non-compliance with any regulated documentation requirements represents a relatively low risk for them. Some councils reported producing documentation, such as certificates of final completion, only on demand, for example. Only three of the nine council participants reported regularly conducting compliance assessments or audits utilising this documentation and/or inspections. Overall we formed the view that documentation and information tracking processes operating within the building standards and compliance system are not working to assure compliance with the Code’s energy performance requirements. In other words the Code, and its implementation under state and territory regulatory processes, is falling short as a ‘quality assurance’ system for consumers. As a result it is likely that the new housing stock is under-performing relative to policy expectations, consuming unnecessary amounts of energy, imposing unnecessarily high energy bills on occupants, and generating unnecessary greenhouse gas emissions. At the same time, Councils noted that the demand for documentation relating to building energy performance was low. All the participant councils in the EBP pilot agreed that documentation and information processes need to work more effectively if the potential regulatory and market drivers towards energy efficient homes are to be harnessed. These findings are fully consistent with the Phase 1 NEEBP report. It was also agreed that an EBP system could potentially play an important role in improving documentation and information processes. However, only one of the participant councils indicated that they might adopt such a system on a voluntary basis. The majority felt that such a system would only be taken up if it were: - A nationally agreed system, imposed as a mandatory requirement under state or national regulation; - Capable of being used by multiple parties including councils, private certifiers, building regulators, builders and energy assessors in particular; and - Fully integrated into their existing document management systems, or at least seamlessly compatible rather than a separate, unlinked tool. Further, we note that the value of an EBP in capturing statistical information relating to the energy performance of buildings would be much greater if an EBP were adopted on a nationally consistent basis. Councils were clear that a key impediment to the take up of an EBP system is that they are facing very considerable budget and staffing challenges. They report that they are often unable to meet all community demands from the resources available to them. Therefore they are unlikely to provide resources to support the roll out of an EBP system on a voluntary basis. Overall, we conclude from this pilot that the public good would be well served if the Australian, state and territory governments continued to develop and implement an Electronic Building Passport system in a cost-efficient and effective manner. This development should occur with detailed input from building regulators, the Australian Building Codes Board (ABCB), councils and private certifiers in the first instance. This report provides a suite of recommendations (Section 7.2) designed to advance the development and guide the implementation of a national EBP system.

Evaluation of oil production from oil palm empty fruit bunch by oleaginous micro-organisms

Oil palm empty fruit bunch (EFB) is a readily available, lignocellulosic biomass that has potential to be utilized as a carbon substrate for microbial oil production. In order to evaluate the production of microbial oil from EFB, a technical study was performed through the cultivation of oleaginous micro-organisms (Rhodotorula mucilaginosa, Aspergillus oryzae, and Mucor plumbeus) on EFB hydrolyzates. EFB hydrolyzates were prepared through dilute acid pre-treatment of the biomass, where the liquid fraction of pre-treatment was detoxified and used as an EFB liquid hydrolyzate (EFBLH). The solid residue was enzymatically hydrolyzed prior to be used as an EFB enzymatic hydrolyzate (EFBEH). The highest oil concentrations were obtained from M. plumbeus (1.9 g/L of oil on EFBLH and 4.7 g/L of oil on EFBEH). In order to evaluate the feasibility of large-scale microbial oil production, a techno-economic study was performed based on the oil yields of M. plumbeus per hectare of plantation, followed by the estimation of the feedstock cost for oil production. Other oil palm biomasses (frond and trunk) were also included in this study, as it could potentially improve the economics of large-scale microbial oil production. Microbial oil from oil palm biomasses was estimated to potentially increase oil production in the palm oil industry up to 25%, at a cheaper feedstock cost. The outcome of this study demonstrates the potential integration of microbial oil production from oil palm biomasses with existing palm oil industry (biodiesel, food and oleochemicals production), that could potentially enhance sustainability and profitability of microbial oil production.

Microbial oil production from sugarcane bagasse hydrolysates by oleaginous yeast and filamentous fungi

This study investigated the potential use of sugarcane bagasse as a feedstock for oil production through microbial cultivation. Bagasse was subjected to dilute acid pretreatment with 0.4 wt% H2SO4 (in liquid) at a solid/liquid ratio of 1:6 (wt/wt) at 170 °C for 15 min, followed by enzymatic hydrolysis of solid residue. The liquid fractions of the pretreatment process and the enzymatic hydrolysis process were detoxified and used as liquid hydrolysate (SCBLH) and enzymatic hydrolysate (SCBEH) for the microbial oil production by oleaginous yeast (Rhodotorula mucilaginosa) and filamentous fungi (Aspergillus oryzae and Mucor plumbeus). The results showed that all strains were able to grow and produce oil from bagasse hydrolysates. The highest oil concentrations produced from bagasse hydrolysates were by M. plumbeus at 1.59 g/L (SCBLH) and 4.74 g/L (SCBEH). The microbial oils obtained have similar fatty acid compositions to vegetable oils, indicating that the oil can be used for the production of second generation biodiesel. On the basis of oil yields obtained by M. plumbeus, from 10 million t (wet weight) of bagasse generated annually from sugar mills in Australia, it is estimated that the total biodiesel that could be produced would be equivalent to about 9% of Queensland’s diesel consumption.