Slicing big data - Twitter, gambling and time sensitive information

Big Data presents many challenges related to volume, whether one is interested in studying past datasets or, even more problematically, attempting to work with live streams of data. The most obvious challenge, in a ‘noisy’ environment such as contemporary social media, is to collect the pertinent information; be that information for a specific study, tweets which can inform emergency services or other responders to an ongoing crisis, or give an advantage to those involved in prediction markets. Often, such a process is iterative, with keywords and hashtags changing with the passage of time, and both collection and analytic methodologies need to be continually adapted to respond to this changing information. While many of the data sets collected and analyzed are preformed, that is they are built around a particular keyword, hashtag, or set of authors, they still contain a large volume of information, much of which is unnecessary for the current purpose and/or potentially useful for future projects. Accordingly, this panel considers methods for separating and combining data to optimize big data research and report findings to stakeholders. The first paper considers possible coding mechanisms for incoming tweets during a crisis, taking a large stream of incoming tweets and selecting which of those need to be immediately placed in front of responders, for manual filtering and possible action. The paper suggests two solutions for this, content analysis and user profiling. In the former case, aspects of the tweet are assigned a score to assess its likely relationship to the topic at hand, and the urgency of the information, whilst the latter attempts to identify those users who are either serving as amplifiers of information or are known as an authoritative source. Through these techniques, the information contained in a large dataset could be filtered down to match the expected capacity of emergency responders, and knowledge as to the core keywords or hashtags relating to the current event is constantly refined for future data collection. The second paper is also concerned with identifying significant tweets, but in this case tweets relevant to particular prediction market; tennis betting. As increasing numbers of professional sports men and women create Twitter accounts to communicate with their fans, information is being shared regarding injuries, form and emotions which have the potential to impact on future results. As has already been demonstrated with leading US sports, such information is extremely valuable. Tennis, as with American Football (NFL) and Baseball (MLB) has paid subscription services which manually filter incoming news sources, including tweets, for information valuable to gamblers, gambling operators, and fantasy sports players. However, whilst such services are still niche operations, much of the value of information is lost by the time it reaches one of these services. The paper thus considers how information could be filtered from twitter user lists and hash tag or keyword monitoring, assessing the value of the source, information, and the prediction markets to which it may relate. The third paper examines methods for collecting Twitter data and following changes in an ongoing, dynamic social movement, such as the Occupy Wall Street movement. It involves the development of technical infrastructure to collect and make the tweets available for exploration and analysis. A strategy to respond to changes in the social movement is also required or the resulting tweets will only reflect the discussions and strategies the movement used at the time the keyword list is created — in a way, keyword creation is part strategy and part art. In this paper we describe strategies for the creation of a social media archive, specifically tweets related to the Occupy Wall Street movement, and methods for continuing to adapt data collection strategies as the movement’s presence in Twitter changes over time. We also discuss the opportunities and methods to extract data smaller slices of data from an archive of social media data to support a multitude of research projects in multiple fields of study. The common theme amongst these papers is that of constructing a data set, filtering it for a specific purpose, and then using the resulting information to aid in future data collection. The intention is that through the papers presented, and subsequent discussion, the panel will inform the wider research community not only on the objectives and limitations of data collection, live analytics, and filtering, but also on current and in-development methodologies that could be adopted by those working with such datasets, and how such approaches could be customized depending on the project stakeholders.

Science of winning soccer : emergent pattern-forming dynamics in association football

Quantitative analysis is increasingly being used in team sports to better understand performance in these stylized, delineated, complex social systems. Here we provide a first step toward understanding the pattern-forming dynamics that emerge from collective offensive and defensive behavior in team sports. We propose a novel method of analysis that captures how teams occupy sub-areas of the field as the ball changes location. We used the method to analyze a game of association football (soccer) based upon a hypothesis that local player numerical dominance is key to defensive stability and offensive opportunity. We found that the teams consistently allocated more players than their opponents in sub-areas of play closer to their own goal. This is consistent with a predominantly defensive strategy intended to prevent yielding even a single goal. We also find differences between the two teams' strategies: while both adopted the same distribution of defensive, midfield, and attacking players (a 4:3:3 system of play), one team was significantly more effective both in maintaining defensive and offensive numerical dominance for defensive stability and offensive opportunity. That team indeed won the match with an advantage of one goal (2 to 1) but the analysis shows the advantage in play was more pervasive than the single goal victory would indicate. Our focus on the local dynamics of team collective behavior is distinct from the traditional focus on individual player capability. It supports a broader view in which specific player abilities contribute within the context of the dynamics of multiplayer team coordination and coaching strategy. By applying this complex system analysis to association football, we can understand how players' and teams' strategies result in successful and unsuccessful relationships between teammates and opponents in the area of play.

Did you see that? Dissociating advanced visual information and ball flight constrains perception and action processes during one-handed catching

The integration of separate, yet complimentary, cortical pathways appears to play a role in visual perception and action when intercepting objects. The ventral system is responsible for object recognition and identification, while the dorsal system facilitates continuous regulation of action. This dual-system model implies that empirically manipulating different visual information sources during performance of an interceptive action might lead to the emergence of distinct gaze and movement pattern profiles. To test this idea, we recorded hand kinematics and eye movements of participants as they attempted to catch balls projected from a novel apparatus that synchronised or de-synchronised accompanying video images of a throwing action and ball trajectory. Results revealed that ball catching performance was less successful when patterns of hand movements and gaze behaviours were constrained by the absence of advanced perceptual information from the thrower's actions. Under these task constraints, participants began tracking the ball later, followed less of its trajectory, and adapted their actions by initiating movements later and moving the hand faster. There were no performance differences when the throwing action image and ball speed were synchronised or de-synchronised since hand movements were closely linked to information from ball trajectory. Results are interpreted relative to the two-visual system hypothesis, demonstrating that accurate interception requires integration of advanced visual information from kinematics of the throwing action and from ball flight trajectory.

Lesions in the bed nucleus of the stria terminalis disrupt corticosterone and freezing responses elicited by a contextual but not by a specific cue-conditioned fear stimulus

The bed nucleus of the stria terminalis (BNST) is believed to be a critical relay between the central nucleus of the amygdala (CE) and the paraventricular nucleus of the hypothalamus in the control of hypothalamic–pituitary– adrenal (HPA) responses elicited by conditioned fear stimuli. If correct, lesions of CE or BNST should block expression of HPA responses elicited by either a specific conditioned fear cue or a conditioned context. To test this, rats were subjected to cued (tone) or contextual classical fear conditioning. Two days later, electrolytic or sham lesions were placed in CE or BNST. After 5 days, the rats were tested for both behavioral (freezing) and neuroendocrine (corticosterone) responses to tone or contextual cues. CE lesions attenuated conditioned freezing and corticosterone responses to both tone and con- text. In contrast, BNST lesions attenuated these responses to contextual but not tone stimuli. These results suggest CE is indeed an essential output of the amygdala for the expres- sion of conditioned fear responses, including HPA re- sponses, regardless of the nature of the conditioned stimu- lus. However, because lesions of BNST only affected behav- ioral and endocrine responses to contextual stimuli, the results do not support the notion that BNST is critical for HPA responses elicited by conditioned fear stimuli in general. Instead, the BNST may be essential specifically for contex- tual conditioned fear responses, including both behavioral and HPA responses, by virtue of its connections with the hippocampus, a structure essential to contextual condition- ing. The results are also not consistent with the hypothesis that BNST is only involved in unconditioned aspects of fear and anxiety.

Testosterone reinforcement : intravenous and intracerebroventricular self-administration in male rats and hamsters

Rationale: Anabolic steroids are drugs of abuse. However, the potential for addiction remains unclear. Testosterone induces conditioned place preference in rats and oral self-administration in hamsters. Objectives: To determine if male rats and hamsters consume testosterone by intravenous (IV) or intracerebroventricular (ICV) self- administration. Methods: With each nose-poke in the active hole during daily 4-h tests in an operant condi- tioning chamber, gonad-intact adult rats and hamsters received 50 mg testosterone in an aqueous solution of b-cyclodextrin via jugular cannula. The inactive nose- poke hole served as a control. Additional hamsters received vehicle infusions. Results: Rats (n=7) expressed a significant preference for the active nose-poke hole (10.0€2.8 responses/4 h) over the inactive hole (4.7€1.2 responses/4 h). Similarly, during 16 days of testosterone self-administration IV, hamsters (n=9) averaged 11.7€2.9 responses/4 h and 6.3€1.1 responses/4 h in the active and inactive nose-poke holes, respectively. By contrast, vehicle controls (n=8) failed to develop a preference for the active nose-poke hole (6.5€0.5 and 6.4€0.3 responses/4 h). Hamsters (n=8) also self-administered 1 mg testosterone ICV (active hole:39.8€6.0 nose-pokes/ 4 h; inactive hole: 22.6€7.1 nose-pokes/4 h). When testosterone was replaced with vehicle, nose-poking in the active hole declined from 31.1€7.6 to 11.9€3.2 responses/ 4 h within 6 days. Likewise, reversing active and inactive holes increased nose-poking in the previously inactive hole from 9.1€1.9 to 25.6€5.4 responses/4 h. However, reducing the testosterone dose from 1 mg to 0.2 mg per 1 ml injection did not change nose-poking. Conclu- sions: Compared with other drugs of abuse, testosterone reinforcement is modest. Nonetheless, these data support the hypothesis that testosterone is reinforcing.

High-growth firms : characteristics, job contribution and method observations

Largely as a result of mass unemployment problems in many European countries, the dynamics of job creation has in recent years attracted increased interest on the part of academics as well as policy-makers. In connection to this, a large number of studies carried out in various countries have concluded that SMEs play a very large and/or growing role as job creators (Birch, 1979; Baldwin and Picot, 1995; Davidsson, 1995a; Davidsson, Lindmark and Olofsson, 1993; 1994; 1995; 1997a; 1997b; Fumagelli and Mussati, 1993; Kirchhoff and Phillips, 1988; Spilling, 1995; for further reference to studies carried out in a large number of countries see also Aiginger and Tichy, 1991; ENSR, 1994; Loveman and Sengenberger, 1991; OECD, 1987; Storey and Johnson, 1987). While most researchers agree on the importance of SMEs, there is some controversy as regards whether this is mainly a result of many small start-ups and incremental expansions, or if a small minority of high growth SMEs contribute the lion’s share of new employment. This is known as the ‘mice vs. gazelles’ or ‘flyers vs. trundlers’ debate. Storey strongly advocates the position that the small group of high growth SMEs are the ‘real’ job creators (Storey, 1994; Storey & Johnson, 1987), whereas, e.g., the Davidsson et al research in Sweden (cf. above) gives more support for the ‘mice’ hypothesis.

Corticosterone accelerates atherosclerosis in the apolipoprotein E-deficient mouse

Chronic stress is an important risk factor for atherosclerosis, which is a chief process in the development of cardiovascular disease. Increased circulating levels of corticosterone have been documented in several animal models of chronic stress. However, it remains to be established whether corticosterone is sufficient to exacerbate atherosclerosis. To test this hypothesis, apolipoprotein E (ApoE)-deficient mice were fed a high-fat diet for 13 weeks with exposure to either corticosterone or vehicle in the drinking water (CORT and Con). Corticosterone treatment significantly increased atherosclerotic plaque area at the aortic root. Such exacerbation of atherosclerosis was accompanied by significantly lower levels of circulating white blood cells and serum interleukin-1β (IL-1β), and significantly elevated serum concentrations of total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein (LDL), very-low-density lipoprotein (VLDL) and small dense low-density lipoprotein (sd-LDL) in CORT mice when compared to Con mice. These findings demonstrate that corticosterone is sufficient to exacerbate atherosclerosis in vivo despite its anti-inflammatory properties and that this marked pro-atherogenic phenotype is primarily associated with increased dyslipidaemia.

A multiscale road map of cancer spheroids : incorporating experimental and mathematical modelling to understand cancer progression

Computational models represent a highly suitable framework, not only for testing biological hypotheses and generating new ones but also for optimising experimental strategies. As one surveys the literature devoted to cancer modelling, it is obvious that immense progress has been made in applying simulation techniques to the study of cancer biology, although the full impact has yet to be realised. For example, there are excellent models to describe cancer incidence rates or factors for early disease detection, but these predictions are unable to explain the functional and molecular changes that are associated with tumour progression. In addition, it is crucial that interactions between mechanical effects, and intracellular and intercellular signalling are incorporated in order to understand cancer growth, its interaction with the extracellular microenvironment and invasion of secondary sites. There is a compelling need to tailor new, physiologically relevant in silico models that are specialised for particular types of cancer, such as ovarian cancer owing to its unique route of metastasis, which are capable of investigating anti-cancer therapies, and generating both qualitative and quantitative predictions. This Commentary will focus on how computational simulation approaches can advance our understanding of ovarian cancer progression and treatment, in particular, with the help of multicellular cancer spheroids, and thus, can inform biological hypothesis and experimental design.

A pilot randomised trial of Medilixir cream shows some promising results, but control treatment may have been inappropriate

Aim To test the efficacy of Medilixir [cream] against the standard treatment of aqueous cream in the provision of relief from the symptoms of postburn itch. Design RCT with two parallel arms. Setting Professor Stuart Pegg Adult Burns Centre, Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital, Brisbane, Australia. Participants Fifty-two patients aged between 18 and 80 years, admitted directly to the burns centre between 10 March and 22 July 2008, were able to provide informed consent, and had shown no allergic reaction to a patch test with the study medication, were randomised. Patients admitted from intensive care or high dependency were excluded. Main results Effect estimates and confidence intervals were not reported for any of the outcomes; only group means/proportions and P-values from hypothesis testing were provided. More patients in the intervention group reported itch reduction compared to comparison treatment (91 vs. 82%, P=0.001). Itch recurrence after cream application occurred later in the intervention group compared to the control group (P<0.001). Use of antipruritic medication was significantly greater in the control group (P=0.023). There was no difference in sleep disturbance between groups (not quantified). On average, Medilixir took longer to apply than aqueous cream (157s for Medilixir vs. 139s for aqueous cream; mean difference 17s), but authors noted that the groups did not differ significantly (CI for mean difference and P-values were not reported).

Polymorphisms in inflammation pathway genes and endometrial cancer risk

BACKGROUND Experimental and epidemiologic evidence have suggested that chronic inflammation may play a critical role in endometrial carcinogenesis. METHODS To investigate this hypothesis, a two-stage study was carried out to evaluate single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) in inflammatory pathway genes in association with endometrial cancer risk. In stage I, 64 candidate pathway genes were identified and 4,542 directly genotyped or imputed SNPs were analyzed among 832 endometrial cancer cases and 2,049 controls, using data from the Shanghai Endometrial Cancer Genetics Study. Linkage disequilibrium of stage I SNPs significantly associated with endometrial cancer (P < 0.05) indicated that the majority of associations could be linked to one of 24 distinct loci. One SNP from each of the 24 loci was then selected for follow-up genotyping. Of these, 21 SNPs were successfully designed and genotyped in stage II, which consisted of 10 additional studies including 6,604 endometrial cancer cases and 8,511 controls. RESULTS Five of the 21 SNPs had significant allelic odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) as follows: FABP1, 0.92 (0.85-0.99); CXCL3, 1.16 (1.05-1.29); IL6, 1.08 (1.00-1.17); MSR1, 0.90 (0.82-0.98); and MMP9, 0.91 (0.87-0.97). Two of these polymorphisms were independently significant in the replication sample (rs352038 in CXCL3 and rs3918249 in MMP9). The association for the MMP9 polymorphism remained significant after Bonferroni correction and showed a significant association with endometrial cancer in both Asian- and European-ancestry samples. CONCLUSIONS These findings lend support to the hypothesis that genetic polymorphisms in genes involved in the inflammatory pathway may contribute to genetic susceptibility to endometrial cancer. Impact statement: This study adds to the growing evidence that inflammation plays an important role in endometrial carcinogenesis.

Agility in consumer retail: sense-response alignment through the eyes of customers

In hyper competition, firms that are agile: sensing and responding better to customer requirements tend to be more successful and achieve supernormal profits. In spite of the widely accepted importance of customer agility, research is limited on this construct. The limited research also has predominantly focussed on the firm’s perspective of agility. However, we propose that the customers are better positioned to determine how well a firm is responding to their requirements (aka a firm’s customer agility). Taking the customers’ stand point, we address the issue of sense and respond alignment in two perspectives-matching and mediating. Based on data collected from customers in a field study, we tested hypothesis pertaining to the two methods of alignment using polynomial regression and response surface methodology. The results provide a good explanation for the role of both forms of alignment on customer satisfaction. Implication for research and practice are discussed.

Measuring the effects of small group deliberation on public attitudes towards sentencing : benefits and challenges

This article reports on the outcomes of small group deliberations on levels of punitiveness and public confidence in the sentencing functions of Australian criminal courts, conducted as part of a larger project investigating public attitudes to sentencing. One hypothesis of the project as a whole was that a more informed and involved public is likely to be less punitive in their views on the sentencing of offenders, and to express less cynical views about the role of sentencing courts. The aim of the small group deliberations as part of the broader project was to engender a more thoughtful and considered approach by participants to issues around sentencing. It was hypothesised that the opportunity to discuss, deliberate and consider would lead to a measurable reduction in punitiveness and an increase in people’s confidence in the courts. While the results do indeed indicate such changes in attitudes, the current study also shed light on some of the conceptual, methodological and practical challenges inherent in this type of research.

Literature review: Student centred schools make the difference

Student-centred schools focus on designing learning experiences that recognise and respond to the individual needs of each of their students. They encourage all members of their school community to be active learners, working to enhance the educational opportunities available at their school. This literature review seeks to address and explore the hypothesis that studentcentred schools make the difference. The review commences by defining the concept of student-centred schooling and the various learning and educational theories that underpin related research. The authors present a model comprising six core elements of learning environments that student-centred schools demonstrate, with a focus on leadership. They also link their findings to the five professional practices in AITSL’s Australian Professional Standard for Principals to illustrate how these leadership practices drive and sustain studentcentred schools. Drawing from Viviane Robinson’s work on the dimensions of student-centred school leadership, together with several further dimensions identified through an environmental scan of literature, the authors consider how and in what ways student-centred schools make the difference.

Literature review : A culture of trust enhances performance

In this environmental scan of research and policy literature, the authors consider various definitions of trust as they seek to address and inform the hypothesis that ‘a culture of trust enhances performance’ in schools. The discussion draws on the work of the Australian Institute for Teaching and School Leadership in school leadership and research by Caldwell and Harris (2008) to consider ways in which trust is linked to performance in schools and organisations. It explores the concept of trust as a form of capital available to schools, and highlights how successful school leaders work to align trust, strategy and passion in implementing effective change. At the heart of the review is the relationship between trust and school improvement. An adapted model of the elements of a culture of trust developed by Bryk and Schneider in their influential study of trust in school reform in Chicago is used to frame this aspect of the review. The authors identify four essential categories of relationships that enable schools to be described as having a culture of trust. The review concludes with a discussion of the relationship between trust and school governance.

Document ranking with quantum probabilities

In this thesis we investigate the use of quantum probability theory for ranking documents. Quantum probability theory is used to estimate the probability of relevance of a document given a user's query. We posit that quantum probability theory can lead to a better estimation of the probability of a document being relevant to a user's query than the common approach, i. e. the Probability Ranking Principle (PRP), which is based upon Kolmogorovian probability theory. Following our hypothesis, we formulate an analogy between the document retrieval scenario and a physical scenario, that of the double slit experiment. Through the analogy, we propose a novel ranking approach, the quantum probability ranking principle (qPRP). Key to our proposal is the presence of quantum interference. Mathematically, this is the statistical deviation between empirical observations and expected values predicted by the Kolmogorovian rule of additivity of probabilities of disjoint events in configurations such that of the double slit experiment. We propose an interpretation of quantum interference in the document ranking scenario, and examine how quantum interference can be effectively estimated for document retrieval. To validate our proposal and to gain more insights about approaches for document ranking, we (1) analyse PRP, qPRP and other ranking approaches, exposing the assumptions underlying their ranking criteria and formulating the conditions for the optimality of the two ranking principles, (2) empirically compare three ranking principles (i. e. PRP, interactive PRP, and qPRP) and two state-of-the-art ranking strategies in two retrieval scenarios, those of ad-hoc retrieval and diversity retrieval, (3) analytically contrast the ranking criteria of the examined approaches, exposing similarities and differences, (4) study the ranking behaviours of approaches alternative to PRP in terms of the kinematics they impose on relevant documents, i. e. by considering the extent and direction of the movements of relevant documents across the ranking recorded when comparing PRP against its alternatives. Our findings show that the effectiveness of the examined ranking approaches strongly depends upon the evaluation context. In the traditional evaluation context of ad-hoc retrieval, PRP is empirically shown to be better or comparable to alternative ranking approaches. However, when we turn to examine evaluation contexts that account for interdependent document relevance (i. e. when the relevance of a document is assessed also with respect to other retrieved documents, as it is the case in the diversity retrieval scenario) then the use of quantum probability theory and thus of qPRP is shown to improve retrieval and ranking effectiveness over the traditional PRP and alternative ranking strategies, such as Maximal Marginal Relevance, Portfolio theory, and Interactive PRP. This work represents a significant step forward regarding the use of quantum theory in information retrieval. It demonstrates in fact that the application of quantum theory to problems within information retrieval can lead to improvements both in modelling power and retrieval effectiveness, allowing the constructions of models that capture the complexity of information retrieval situations. Furthermore, the thesis opens up a number of lines for future research. These include: (1) investigating estimations and approximations of quantum interference in qPRP; (2) exploiting complex numbers for the representation of documents and queries, and; (3) applying the concepts underlying qPRP to tasks other than document ranking.