Prediction with limited advice and multiarmed bandits with paid observations

We study two problems of online learning under restricted information access. In the first problem, prediction with limited advice, we consider a game of prediction with expert advice, where on each round of the game we query the advice of a subset of M out of N experts. We present an algorithm that achieves O(√(N/M)TlnN ) regret on T rounds of this game. The second problem, the multiarmed bandit with paid observations, is a variant of the adversarial N-armed bandit game, where on round t of the game we can observe the reward of any number of arms, but each observation has a cost c. We present an algorithm that achieves O((cNlnN) 1/3 T2/3+√TlnN ) regret on T rounds of this game in the worst case. Furthermore, we present a number of refinements that treat arm- and time-dependent observation costs and achieve lower regret under benign conditions. We present lower bounds that show that, apart from the logarithmic factors, the worst-case regret bounds cannot be improved.

Comparing different approach and avoidance models of learning and personality in the prediction of work, university, and leadership outcomes

Jackson (2005) developed a hybrid model of personality and learning, known as the learning styles profiler (LSP) which was designed to span biological, socio-cognitive, and experiential research foci of personality and learning research. The hybrid model argues that functional and dysfunctional learning outcomes can be best understood in terms of how cognitions and experiences control, discipline, and re-express the biologically based scale of sensation-seeking. In two studies with part-time workers undertaking tertiary education (N equals 137 and 58), established models of approach and avoidance from each of the three different research foci were compared with Jackson's hybrid model in their predictiveness of leadership, work, and university outcomes using self-report and supervisor ratings. Results showed that the hybrid model was generally optimal and, as hypothesized, that goal orientation was a mediator of sensation-seeking on outcomes (work performance, university performance, leader behaviours, and counterproductive work behaviour). Our studies suggest that the hybrid model has considerable promise as a predictor of work and educational outcomes as well as dysfunctional outcomes.

Traffic incident clearance time and arrival time prediction based on hazard models

Accurate prediction of incident duration is not only important information of Traffic Incident Management System, but also an ffective input for travel time prediction. In this paper, the hazard based prediction odels are developed for both incident clearance time and arrival time. The data are obtained from the Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads’ STREAMS Incident Management System (SIMS) for one year ending in November 2010. The best fitting distributions are drawn for both clearance and arrival time for 3 types of incident: crash, stationary vehicle, and hazard. The results show that Gamma, Log-logistic, and Weibull are the best fit for crash, stationary vehicle, and hazard incident, respectively. The obvious impact factors are given for crash clearance time and arrival time. The quantitative influences for crash and hazard incident are presented for both clearance and arrival. The model accuracy is analyzed at the end.

Liability in negligence and the failure to disclose multiple risks in surgery : I would have been willing to run the risk

It has been 21 years since the decision in Rogers v Whitaker and the legal principles concerning informed consent and liability for negligence are still strongly grounded in this landmark High Court decision. This paper considers more recent developments in the law concerning the failure to disclose inherent risks in medical procedures, focusing on the decision in Wallace v Kam [2013] HCA 19. In this case, the appellant underwent a surgical procedure that carried a number of risks. The surgery itself was not performed in a sub-standard way, but the surgeon failed to disclose two risks to the patient, a failure that constituted a breach of the surgeon’s duty of care in negligence. One of the undisclosed risks was considered to be less serious than the other, and this lesser risk eventuated causing injury to the appellant. The more serious risk did not eventuate, but the appellant argued that if the more serious risk had been disclosed, he would have avoided his injuries completely because he would have refused to undergo the procedure. Liability was disputed by the surgeon, with particular reference to causation principles. The High Court of Australia held that the appellant should not be compensated for harm that resulted from a risk he would have been willing to run. We examine the policy reasons underpinning the law of negligence in this specific context and consider some of the issues raised by this unusual case. We question whether some of the judicial reasoning adopted in this case, represents a significant shift in traditional causation principles.

Unidentified vehicle in multi-vehicle accident - failure to notify Nominal Defendant no bar to proceedings against it

In Kumar v Suncorp Metway Insurance Limited [2004] QSC 381 Douglas J examined s37 of the Motor Accident Insurance Act 1994 (Qld) in the context of an accident involving multiple insurers when a notice of accident had not been given to the Nominal Defendant

Predictive validity of accelerometer prediction equations for energy expenditure (EE) during overland walking and running in children and adolescents

Purpose The aim of this study was to assess the predictive validity of three accelerometer prediction equations (Freedson et aL, 1997; Trost et aL, 1998; Puyau et al., 2002) for energy expenditure (EE) during overland walking and running in children and adolescents. Methods 45 healthy children and adolescents aged 10-18 completed the following protocol, each task 5-mins in duration, with a 5-min rest period in between; walking normally; walking briskly; running easily and running fast. During each task participants wore MTI (WAM 7164) Actigraphs on the left and right hips. VO2 was monitored breath by breath using the Cosmed K4b2 portable indirect calorimetry system. For each prediction equation, difference scores were calculated as EE measured minus EE predicted. The percentage of 1-min epochs correctly categorized as light (<3 METs), moderate (3-5.9 METs), and vigorous (≥6 METS) was also calculated. Results The Freedson and Trost equations consistently overestimated MET level. The level of overestimation was statistically significant across all tasks for the Freedson equation, and was significant for only the walking tasks for the Trost equation. The Puyau equation consistently underestimated AEE with the exception of the walking normally task. In terms of categorisation, the Freedson equation (72.8% agreement) demonstrated better agreement than the Puyau (60.6%). Conclusions These data suggest that the three accelerometer prediction equations do not accurately predict EE on a minute-by-minute basis in children and adolescents during overland walking and running. However, the cut points generated by these equations maybe useful for classifying activity as either, light, moderate, or vigorous.

Spatial prediction on a river network

This article develops methods for spatially predicting daily change of dissolved oxygen (Dochange) at both sampled locations (134 freshwater sites in 2002 and 2003) and other locations of interest throughout a river network in South East Queensland, Australia. In order to deal with the relative sparseness of the monitoring locations in comparison to the number of locations where one might want to make predictions, we make a classification of the river and stream locations. We then implement optimal spatial prediction (ordinary and constrained kriging) from geostatistics. Because of their directed-tree structure, rivers and streams offer special challenges. A complete approach to spatial prediction on a river network is given, with special attention paid to environmental exceedances. The methodology is used to produce a map of Dochange predictions for 2003. Dochange is one of the variables measured as part of the Ecosystem Health Monitoring Program conducted within the Moreton Bay Waterways and Catchments Partnership.

Beyond point forecasting : evaluation of alternative prediction intervals for tourist arrivals

This paper evaluates the performances of prediction intervals generated from alternative time series models, in the context of tourism forecasting. The forecasting methods considered include the autoregressive (AR) model, the AR model using the bias-corrected bootstrap, seasonal ARIMA models, innovations state space models for exponential smoothing, and Harvey’s structural time series models. We use thirteen monthly time series for the number of tourist arrivals to Hong Kong and Australia. The mean coverage rates and widths of the alternative prediction intervals are evaluated in an empirical setting. It is found that all models produce satisfactory prediction intervals, except for the autoregressive model. In particular, those based on the biascorrected bootstrap perform best in general, providing tight intervals with accurate coverage rates, especially when the forecast horizon is long.

Arterial short-term travel time prediction using Bluetooth data

This project recognized lack of data analysis and travel time prediction on arterials as the main gap in the current literature. For this purpose it first investigated reliability of data gathered by Bluetooth technology as a new cost effective method for data collection on arterial roads. Then by considering the similarity among varieties of daily travel time on different arterial routes, created a SARIMA model to predict future travel time values. Based on this research outcome, the created model can be applied for online short term travel time prediction in future.

Performance evaluation of three-level Z-source inverters under semiconductor-failure conditions

This paper evaluates and proposes various compensation methods for three-level Z-source inverters under semiconductor-failure conditions. Unlike the fault-tolerant techniques used in traditional three-level inverters, where either an extra phase-leg or collective switching states are used, the proposed methods for three-level Z-source inverters simply reconfigure their relevant gating signals so as to ride-through the failed semiconductor conditions smoothly without any significant decrease in their ac-output quality and amplitude. These features are partly attributed to the inherent boost characteristics of a Z-source inverter, in addition to its usual voltage-buck operation. By focusing on specific types of three-level Z-source inverters, it can also be shown that, for the dual Z-source inverters, a unique feature accompanying it is its extra ability to force common-mode voltage to zero even under semiconductor-failure conditions. For verifying these described performance features, PLECS simulation and experimental testing were performed with some results captured and shown in a later section for visual confirmation.

A typology of technological enablers of website service failure prevention

An increasing range of services are now offered via online applications and e-commerce websites. However, problems with online services still occur at times, even for the best service providers due to the technical failures, informational failures, or lack of required website functionalities. Also, the widespread and increasing implementation of web services means that service failures are both more likely to occur, and more likely to have serious consequences. In this paper we first develop a digital service value chain framework based on existing service delivery models adapted for digital services. We then review current literature on service failure prevention, and provide a typology of technolo- gies and approaches that can be used to prevent failures of different types (functional, informational, system), that can occur at different stages in the web service delivery. This makes a contribution to theory by relating specific technologies and technological approaches to the point in the value chain framework where they will have the maximum impact. Our typology can also be used to guide the planning, justification and design of robust, reliable web services.

Failure of amino acid homeostasis causes cell death following proteasome inhibition

The ubiquitin-proteasome system targets many cellular proteins for degradation and thereby controls most cellular processes. Although it is well established that proteasome inhibition is lethal, the underlying mechanism is unknown. Here, we show that proteasome inhibition results in a lethal amino acid shortage. In yeast, mammalian cells, and flies, the deleterious consequences of proteasome inhibition are rescued by amino acid supplementation. In all three systems, this rescuing effect occurs without noticeable changes in the levels of proteasome substrates. In mammalian cells, the amino acid scarcity resulting from proteasome inhibition is the signal that causes induction of both the integrated stress response and autophagy, in an unsuccessful attempt to replenish the pool of intracellular amino acids. These results reveal that cells can tolerate protein waste, but not the amino acid scarcity resulting from proteasome inhibition.

Enhanced stochastic mobility prediction with multi-output Gaussian processes

Outdoor robots such as planetary rovers must be able to navigate safely and reliably in order to successfully perform missions in remote or hostile environments. Mobility prediction is critical to achieving this goal due to the inherent control uncertainty faced by robots traversing natural terrain. We propose a novel algorithm for stochastic mobility prediction based on multi-output Gaussian process regression. Our algorithm considers the correlation between heading and distance uncertainty and provides a predictive model that can easily be exploited by motion planning algorithms. We evaluate our method experimentally and report results from over 30 trials in a Mars-analogue environment that demonstrate the effectiveness of our method and illustrate the importance of mobility prediction in navigating challenging terrain.

Experimental investigation of post-fire mechanical properties of cold-formed steels

Cold-formed steel members are widely used in residential, industrial and commercial buildings as primary load-bearing elements. During fire events, they will be exposed to elevated temperatures. If the general appearance of the structure is satisfactory after a fire event then the question that has to be answered is how the load bearing capacity of cold-formed steel members in these buildings has been affected. Hence after such fire events there is a need to evaluate the residual strength of these members. However, the post-fire behaviour of cold-formed steel members has not been investigated in the past. This means conservative decisions are likely to be made in relation to fire exposed cold-formed steel buildings. Therefore an experimental study was undertaken to investigate the post-fire mechanical properties of cold-formed steels. Tensile coupons taken from cold-formed steel sheets of three different steel grades and thicknesses were exposed to different elevated temperatures up to 800 oC, and were then allowed to cool down to ambient temperature before they were tested to failure. Tensile coupon tests were conducted to obtain their post-fire stress-strain curves and associated mechanical properties (yield stress, Young’s modulus, ultimate strength and ductility). It was found that the post-fire mechanical properties of cold-formed steels are reduced below the original ambient temperature mechanical properties if they had been exposed to temperatures exceeding 300 oC. Hence a new set of equations is proposed to predict the post-fire mechanical properties of cold-formed steels. Such post-fire mechanical property assessments allow structural and fire engineers to make an accurate prediction of the safety of fire exposed cold-formed steel buildings. This paper presents the details of this experimental study and the results of post-fire mechanical properties of cold-formed steels. It also includes the results of a post-fire evaluation of cold-formed steel walls.