Bayesian models for the determination of resonant frequencies in a DI diesel engine

A time series method for the determination of combustion chamber resonant frequencies is outlined. This technique employs the use of Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to infer parameters in a chosen model of the data. The development of the model is included and the resonant frequency is characterised as a function of time. Potential applications for cycle-by-cycle analysis are discussed and the bulk temperature of the gas and the trapped mass in the combustion chamber are evaluated as a function of time from resonant frequency information.

Emergency health services : demand and service delivery models. Monograph 1: literature review and activity trends

Emergency Health Services (EHS), encompassing hospital-based Emergency Departments (ED) and pre-hospital ambulance services, are a significant and high profile component of Australia’s health care system and congestion of these, evidenced by physical overcrowding and prolonged waiting times, is causing considerable community and professional concern. This concern relates not only to Australia’s capacity to manage daily health emergencies but also the ability to respond to major incidents and disasters. EHS congestion is a result of the combined effects of increased demand for emergency care, increased complexity of acute health care, and blocked access to ongoing care (e.g. inpatient beds). Despite this conceptual understanding there is a lack of robust evidence to explain the factors driving increased demand, or how demand contributes to congestion, and therefore public policy responses have relied upon limited or unsound information. The Emergency Health Services Queensland (EHSQ) research program proposes to determine the factors influencing the growing demand for emergency health care and to establish options for alternative service provision that may safely meet patient’s needs. The EHSQ study is funded by the Australian Research Council (ARC) through its Linkage Program and is supported financially by the Queensland Ambulance Service (QAS). This monograph is part of a suite of publications based on the research findings that examines the existing literature, and current operational context. Literature was sourced using standard search approaches and a range of databases as well as a selection of articles cited in the reviewed literature. Public sources including the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW), the Council of Ambulance Authorities (CAA) Annual Reports, Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and Department of Health and Ageing (DoHA) were examined for trend data across Australia.

Query expansion using term relationships in language models for information retrieval

Language Modeling (LM) has been successfully applied to Information Retrieval (IR). However, most of the existing LM approaches only rely on term occurrences in documents, queries and document collections. In traditional unigram based models, terms (or words) are usually considered to be independent. In some recent studies, dependence models have been proposed to incorporate term relationships into LM, so that links can be created between words in the same sentence, and term relationships (e.g. synonymy) can be used to expand the document model. In this study, we further extend this family of dependence models in the following two ways: (1) Term relationships are used to expand query model instead of document model, so that query expansion process can be naturally implemented; (2) We exploit more sophisticated inferential relationships extracted with Information Flow (IF). Information flow relationships are not simply pairwise term relationships as those used in previous studies, but are between a set of terms and another term. They allow for context-dependent query expansion. Our experiments conducted on TREC collections show that we can obtain large and significant improvements with our approach. This study shows that LM is an appropriate framework to implement effective query expansion.

Analysis of productive performance of crop and animal production systems : an integrated analytical framework

This article presents a two-stage analytical framework that integrates ecological crop (animal) growth and economic frontier production models to analyse the productive efficiency of crop (animal) production systems. The ecological crop (animal) growth model estimates "potential" output levels given the genetic characteristics of crops (animals) and the physical conditions of locations where the crops (animals) are grown (reared). The economic frontier production model estimates "best practice" production levels, taking into account economic, institutional and social factors that cause farm and spatial heterogeneity. In the first stage, both ecological crop growth and economic frontier production models are estimated to calculate three measures of productive efficiency: (1) technical efficiency, as the ratio of actual to "best practice" output levels; (2) agronomic efficiency, as the ratio of actual to "potential" output levels; and (3) agro-economic efficiency, as the ratio of "best practice" to "potential" output levels. Also in the first stage, the economic frontier production model identifies factors that determine technical efficiency. In the second stage, agro-economic efficiency is analysed econometrically in relation to economic, institutional and social factors that cause farm and spatial heterogeneity. The proposed framework has several important advantages in comparison with existing proposals. Firstly, it allows the systematic incorporation of all physical, economic, institutional and social factors that cause farm and spatial heterogeneity in analysing the productive performance of crop and animal production systems. Secondly, the location-specific physical factors are not modelled symmetrically as other economic inputs of production. Thirdly, climate change and technological advancements in crop and animal sciences can be modelled in a "forward-looking" manner. Fourthly, knowledge in agronomy and data from experimental studies can be utilised for socio-economic policy analysis. The proposed framework can be easily applied in empirical studies due to the current availability of ecological crop (animal) growth models, farm or secondary data, and econometric software packages. The article highlights several directions of empirical studies that researchers may pursue in the future.

Cost efficiency v quality service : using CHAT as a tool for understanding change and transformation in work practices

This chapter provides an analysis of feedback from key stakeholders, collected as part of a research project, on the problems and tensions evident in the collective work practices of learning advisers employed in learning assistance services at an Australian metropolitan university (Peach, 2003). The term 'learning assistance' is used in the Australian higher education sector generally to refer to student support services that include assistance with academic writing and other study skills. The aim of the study was to help learning advisers and other key stakeholders develop a better understanding of the work activity with a view to using this understanding to generate improvements in service provision. Over twenty problems and associated tensions were identified through stakeholder feedback however the focus of this chapter is the analysis of tensions related to a cluster of problems referred to as cost-efficiency versus quality service. Theoretical modelling derived from the tools made available through cultural historical activity theory and expansive visibilsation (Engestrom and Miettinen, 1999) and excerpts from data are used to illustrate how different understandings of the purpose of learning assistance services impacts on the work practices of learning advisers and creates problems and tensions in relation to the type of service available (including use of technology),level of service available, and learning adviser workload.

Using Bayesian methods for the estimation of uncertainty in complex statistical models

The research objectives of this thesis were to contribute to Bayesian statistical methodology by contributing to risk assessment statistical methodology, and to spatial and spatio-temporal methodology, by modelling error structures using complex hierarchical models. Specifically, I hoped to consider two applied areas, and use these applications as a springboard for developing new statistical methods as well as undertaking analyses which might give answers to particular applied questions. Thus, this thesis considers a series of models, firstly in the context of risk assessments for recycled water, and secondly in the context of water usage by crops. The research objective was to model error structures using hierarchical models in two problems, namely risk assessment analyses for wastewater, and secondly, in a four dimensional dataset, assessing differences between cropping systems over time and over three spatial dimensions. The aim was to use the simplicity and insight afforded by Bayesian networks to develop appropriate models for risk scenarios, and again to use Bayesian hierarchical models to explore the necessarily complex modelling of four dimensional agricultural data. The specific objectives of the research were to develop a method for the calculation of credible intervals for the point estimates of Bayesian networks; to develop a model structure to incorporate all the experimental uncertainty associated with various constants thereby allowing the calculation of more credible credible intervals for a risk assessment; to model a single day’s data from the agricultural dataset which satisfactorily captured the complexities of the data; to build a model for several days’ data, in order to consider how the full data might be modelled; and finally to build a model for the full four dimensional dataset and to consider the timevarying nature of the contrast of interest, having satisfactorily accounted for possible spatial and temporal autocorrelations. This work forms five papers, two of which have been published, with two submitted, and the final paper still in draft. The first two objectives were met by recasting the risk assessments as directed, acyclic graphs (DAGs). In the first case, we elicited uncertainty for the conditional probabilities needed by the Bayesian net, incorporated these into a corresponding DAG, and used Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to find credible intervals, for all the scenarios and outcomes of interest. In the second case, we incorporated the experimental data underlying the risk assessment constants into the DAG, and also treated some of that data as needing to be modelled as an ‘errors-invariables’ problem [Fuller, 1987]. This illustrated a simple method for the incorporation of experimental error into risk assessments. In considering one day of the three-dimensional agricultural data, it became clear that geostatistical models or conditional autoregressive (CAR) models over the three dimensions were not the best way to approach the data. Instead CAR models are used with neighbours only in the same depth layer. This gave flexibility to the model, allowing both the spatially structured and non-structured variances to differ at all depths. We call this model the CAR layered model. Given the experimental design, the fixed part of the model could have been modelled as a set of means by treatment and by depth, but doing so allows little insight into how the treatment effects vary with depth. Hence, a number of essentially non-parametric approaches were taken to see the effects of depth on treatment, with the model of choice incorporating an errors-in-variables approach for depth in addition to a non-parametric smooth. The statistical contribution here was the introduction of the CAR layered model, the applied contribution the analysis of moisture over depth and estimation of the contrast of interest together with its credible intervals. These models were fitted using WinBUGS [Lunn et al., 2000]. The work in the fifth paper deals with the fact that with large datasets, the use of WinBUGS becomes more problematic because of its highly correlated term by term updating. In this work, we introduce a Gibbs sampler with block updating for the CAR layered model. The Gibbs sampler was implemented by Chris Strickland using pyMCMC [Strickland, 2010]. This framework is then used to consider five days data, and we show that moisture in the soil for all the various treatments reaches levels particular to each treatment at a depth of 200 cm and thereafter stays constant, albeit with increasing variances with depth. In an analysis across three spatial dimensions and across time, there are many interactions of time and the spatial dimensions to be considered. Hence, we chose to use a daily model and to repeat the analysis at all time points, effectively creating an interaction model of time by the daily model. Such an approach allows great flexibility. However, this approach does not allow insight into the way in which the parameter of interest varies over time. Hence, a two-stage approach was also used, with estimates from the first-stage being analysed as a set of time series. We see this spatio-temporal interaction model as being a useful approach to data measured across three spatial dimensions and time, since it does not assume additivity of the random spatial or temporal effects.

An evaluation of the sustainability of agreements reached through mediations conducted by the dispute resolution centres of the Department of Justice and Attorney General, Queensland between 1999 to 2003

In 1990 the Dispute Resolution Centres Act, 1990 (Qld) (the Act) was passed by the Queensland Parliament. In the second reading speech for the Dispute Resolution Centres Bill on May 1990 the Hon Dean Wells stated that the proposed legislation would make mediation services available “in a non-coercive, voluntary forum where, with the help of trained mediators, the disputants will be assisted towards their own solutions to their disputes, thereby ensuring that the result is acceptable to the parties” (Hansard, 1990, 1718). It was recognised at that time that a method for resolving disputes was necessary for which “the conventional court system is not always equipped to provide lasting resolution” (Hansard, 1990, 1717). In particular, the lasting resolution of “disputes between people in continuing relationships” was seen as made possible through the new legislation; for example, “domestic disputes, disputes between employees, and neighbourhood disputes relating to such issues as overhanging tree branches, dividing fences, barking dogs, smoke, noise and other nuisances are occurring continually in the community” (Hansard, 1990, 1717). The key features of the proposed form of mediation in the Act were articulated as follows: “attendance of both parties at mediation sessions is voluntary; a party may withdraw at any time; mediation sessions will be conducted with as little formality and technicality as possible; the rules of evidence will not apply; any agreement reached is not enforceable in any court; although it could be made so if the parties chose to proceed that way; and the provisions of the Act do not affect any rights or remedies that a party to a dispute has apart from the Act” (Hansard, 1990, 1718). Since the introduction of the Act, the Alternative Dispute Resolution Branch of the Queensland Department of Justice and Attorney General has offered mediation services through, first the Community Justice Program (CJP), and then the Dispute Resolution Centres (DRCs) for a range of family, neighbourhood, workplace and community disputes. These services have mirrored those available through similar government agencies in other states such as the Community Justice Centres of NSW and the Victorian Dispute Resolution Centres. Since 1990, mediation has become one of the fastest growing forms of alternative dispute resolution (ADR). Sourdin has commented that "In addition to the growth in court-based and community-based dispute resolution schemes, ADR has been institutionalised and has grown within Australia and overseas” (2005, 14). In Australia, in particular, the development of ADR service provision “has been assisted by the creation and growth of professional organisations such as the Leading Edge Alternative Dispute Resolvers (LEADR), the Australian Commercial Dispute Centres (ACDC), Australian Disputes Resolution Association (ADRA), Conflict Resolution Network, and the Institute of Arbitrators and Mediators Australia (IAMA)” (Sourdin, 2005, 14). The increased emphasis on the use of ADR within education contexts (particularly secondary and tertiary contexts) has “also led to an increasing acceptance and understanding of (ADR) processes” (Sourdin, 2005, 14). Proponents of the mediation process, in particular, argue that much of its success derives from the inherent flexibility and creativity of the agreements reached through the mediation process and that it is a relatively low cost option in many cases (Menkel-Meadow, 1997, 417). It is also accepted that one of the main reasons for the success of mediation can be attributed to the high level of participation by the parties involved and thus creating a sense of ownership of, and commitment to, the terms of the agreement (Boulle, 2005, 65). These characteristics are associated with some of the core values of mediation, particularly as practised in community-based models as found at the DRCs. These core values include voluntary participation, party self-determination and party empowerment (Boulle, 2005, 65). For this reason mediation is argued as being an effective approach to resolving disputes, that creates a lasting resolution of the issues. Evaluation of the mediation process, particularly in the context of the growth of ADR, has been an important aspect of the development of the process (Sourdin, 2008). Writing in 2005 for example, Boulle, states that “although there is a constant refrain for more research into mediation practice, there has been a not insignificant amount of mediation measurement, both in Australia and overseas” (Boulle, 2005, 575). The positive claims of mediation have been supported to a significant degree by evaluations of the efficiency and effectiveness of the process. A common indicator of the effectiveness of mediation is the settlement rate achieved. High settlement rates for mediated disputes have been found for Australia (Altobelli, 2003) and internationally (Alexander, 2003). Boulle notes that mediation agreement rates claimed by service providers range from 55% to 92% (Boulle, 2005, 590). The annual reports for the Alternative Dispute Resolution Branch of the Queensland Department of Justice and Attorney-General considered prior to the commencement of this study indicated generally achievement of an approximate settlement figure of 86% by the Queensland Dispute Resolution Centres. More recently, the 2008-2009 annual report states that of the 2291 civil dispute mediated in 2007-2008, 86% reached an agreement. Further, of the 2693 civil disputes mediated in 2008-2009, 73% reached an agreement. These results are noted in the report as indicating “the effectiveness of mediation in resolving disputes” and as reflecting “the high level of agreement achieved for voluntary mediations” (Annual Report, 2008-2009, online). Whilst the settlement rates for the DRCs are strong, parties are rarely contacted for long term follow-up to assess whether agreements reached during mediation lasted to the satisfaction of each party. It has certainly been the case that the Dispute Resolution Centres of Queensland have not been resourced to conduct long-term follow-up assessments of mediation agreements. As Wade notes, "it is very difficult to compare "success" rates” and whilst “politicians want the comparison studies (they) usually do not want the delay and expense of accurate studies" (1998, 114). To date, therefore, it is fair to say that the efficiency of the mediation process has been evaluated but not necessarily its effectiveness. Rather, the practice at the Queensland DRCs has been to evaluate the quality of mediation service provision and of the practice of the mediation process. This has occurred, for example, through follow-up surveys of parties' satisfaction rates with the mediation service. In most other respects it is fair to say that the Centres have relied on the high settlement rates of the mediation process as a sign of the effectiveness of mediation (Annual Reports 1991 - 2010). Research of the mediation literature conducted for the purpose of this thesis has also indicated that there is little evaluative literature that provides an in-depth analysis and assessment of the longevity of mediated agreements. Instead evaluative studies of mediation tend to assess how mediation is conducted, or compare mediation with other conflict resolution options, or assess the agreement rate of mediations, including parties' levels of satisfaction with the service provision of the dispute resolution service provider (Boulle, 2005, Chapter 16).

Velocity-jump models with crowding effects

Velocity jump processes are discrete random walk models that have many applications including the study of biological and ecological collective motion. In particular, velocity jump models are often used to represent a type of persistent motion, known as a “run and tumble”, which is exhibited by some isolated bacteria cells. All previous velocity jump processes are non-interacting, which means that crowding effects and agent-to-agent interactions are neglected. By neglecting these agent-to-agent interactions, traditional velocity jump models are only applicable to very dilute systems. Our work is motivated by the fact that many applications in cell biology, such as wound healing, cancer invasion and development, often involve tissues that are densely packed with cells where cell-to-cell contact and crowding effects can be important. To describe these kinds of high cell density problems using a velocity jump process we introduce three different classes of crowding interactions into a one-dimensional model. Simulation data and averaging arguments lead to a suite of continuum descriptions of the interacting velocity jump processes. We show that the resulting systems of hyperbolic partial differential equations predict the mean behavior of the stochastic simulations very well.

Risky strategic behaviour : unintended consequences of good intentions in the homelessness service system

The delivery of human services occurs through a complex and often volatile system characterised by both competing and cooperating efforts. A recent strategic intention of government has been to integrate disparate service providers and programs into a more effective and efficient system using competitive funding regimes. A program of amalgamation has also been forecast and promoted as a further mechanism by which to link up smaller agencies thus creating economy and efficiency in the scale and scope of their service modes. Despite the current reliance on competitive funding models and amalgamation as the preferred ways forward for the sector little is known about their integrative capacity including their ability to predict outcomes and their consequences : the ‘unknown unknowns’. Drawing on an extensive data set of human services integration initiatives in Queensland, Australia, this paper examines the impact of government policy and service models and the risks arising from the tensions between competition and accountability on the one hand and the established good will and trust on the other. It is argued that unresolved, these tensions can lead to a weakening of the social infrastructure and make the system more vulnerable to inherent systemic risks. The paper finds that government’s efforts to externalise risk to the non-government sector leads to fragmentation of the service system and fractured collaborative capability. These unintended outcomes themselves have the unintended consequence of leaving governments disconnected from the service system and unable to provide the leadership role and direction necessary for sustained integration. Moreover, facilitating such a leadership role is undermined by behaviours that are directly contrary to collective integration models.

Clustering of web users using the tensor decomposed models

We propose to use the Tensor Space Modeling (TSM) to represent and analyze the user’s web log data that consists of multiple interests and spans across multiple dimensions. Further we propose to use the decomposition factors of the Tensors for clustering the users based on similarity of search behaviour. Preliminary results show that the proposed method outperforms the traditional Vector Space Model (VSM) based clustering.

Efficiency of research performance of Australian universities : a reappraisal using a bootstrap truncated regression approach

The motivation of the study stems from the results reported in the Excellence in Research for Australia (ERA) 2010 report. The report showed that only 12 universities performed research at or above international standards, of which, the Group of Eight (G8) universities filled the top eight spots. While performance of universities was based on number of research outputs, total amount of research income and other quantitative indicators, the measure of efficiency or productivity was not considered. The objectives of this paper are twofold. First, to provide a review of the research performance of 37 Australian universities using the data envelopment analysis (DEA) bootstrap approach of Simar and Wilson (2007). Second, to determine sources of productivity drivers by regressing the efficiency scores against a set of environmental variables.

Understanding business process models : the costs and benefits of structuredness

Previous research has put forward a number of properties of business process models that have an impact on their understandability. Two such properties are compactness and(block-)structuredness. What has not been sufficiently appreciated at this point is that these desirable properties may be at odds with one another. This paper presents the results of a two-pronged study aimed at exploring the trade-off between compactness and structuredness of process models. The first prong of the study is a comparative analysis of the complexity of a set of unstructured process models from industrial practice and of their corresponding structured versions. The second prong is an experiment wherein a cohort of students was exposed to semantically equivalent unstructured and structured process models. The key finding is that structuredness is not an absolute desideratum vis-a-vis for process model understandability. Instead, subtle trade-offs between structuredness and other model properties are at play.

Adaptive cache aware multiprocessor scheduling framework

Computer resource allocation represents a significant challenge particularly for multiprocessor systems, which consist of shared computing resources to be allocated among co-runner processes and threads. While an efficient resource allocation would result in a highly efficient and stable overall multiprocessor system and individual thread performance, ineffective poor resource allocation causes significant performance bottlenecks even for the system with high computing resources. This thesis proposes a cache aware adaptive closed loop scheduling framework as an efficient resource allocation strategy for the highly dynamic resource management problem, which requires instant estimation of highly uncertain and unpredictable resource patterns. Many different approaches to this highly dynamic resource allocation problem have been developed but neither the dynamic nature nor the time-varying and uncertain characteristics of the resource allocation problem is well considered. These approaches facilitate either static and dynamic optimization methods or advanced scheduling algorithms such as the Proportional Fair (PFair) scheduling algorithm. Some of these approaches, which consider the dynamic nature of multiprocessor systems, apply only a basic closed loop system; hence, they fail to take the time-varying and uncertainty of the system into account. Therefore, further research into the multiprocessor resource allocation is required. Our closed loop cache aware adaptive scheduling framework takes the resource availability and the resource usage patterns into account by measuring time-varying factors such as cache miss counts, stalls and instruction counts. More specifically, the cache usage pattern of the thread is identified using QR recursive least square algorithm (RLS) and cache miss count time series statistics. For the identified cache resource dynamics, our closed loop cache aware adaptive scheduling framework enforces instruction fairness for the threads. Fairness in the context of our research project is defined as a resource allocation equity, which reduces corunner thread dependence in a shared resource environment. In this way, instruction count degradation due to shared cache resource conflicts is overcome. In this respect, our closed loop cache aware adaptive scheduling framework contributes to the research field in two major and three minor aspects. The two major contributions lead to the cache aware scheduling system. The first major contribution is the development of the execution fairness algorithm, which degrades the co-runner cache impact on the thread performance. The second contribution is the development of relevant mathematical models, such as thread execution pattern and cache access pattern models, which in fact formulate the execution fairness algorithm in terms of mathematical quantities. Following the development of the cache aware scheduling system, our adaptive self-tuning control framework is constructed to add an adaptive closed loop aspect to the cache aware scheduling system. This control framework in fact consists of two main components: the parameter estimator, and the controller design module. The first minor contribution is the development of the parameter estimators; the QR Recursive Least Square(RLS) algorithm is applied into our closed loop cache aware adaptive scheduling framework to estimate highly uncertain and time-varying cache resource patterns of threads. The second minor contribution is the designing of a controller design module; the algebraic controller design algorithm, Pole Placement, is utilized to design the relevant controller, which is able to provide desired timevarying control action. The adaptive self-tuning control framework and cache aware scheduling system in fact constitute our final framework, closed loop cache aware adaptive scheduling framework. The third minor contribution is to validate this cache aware adaptive closed loop scheduling framework efficiency in overwhelming the co-runner cache dependency. The timeseries statistical counters are developed for M-Sim Multi-Core Simulator; and the theoretical findings and mathematical formulations are applied as MATLAB m-file software codes. In this way, the overall framework is tested and experiment outcomes are analyzed. According to our experiment outcomes, it is concluded that our closed loop cache aware adaptive scheduling framework successfully drives co-runner cache dependent thread instruction count to co-runner independent instruction count with an error margin up to 25% in case cache is highly utilized. In addition, thread cache access pattern is also estimated with 75% accuracy.

An examination of the microscopic simulation models to identify traffic safety indicators

Evaluating the safety of different traffic facilities is a complex and crucial task. Microscopic simulation models have been widely used for traffic management but have been largely neglected in traffic safety studies. Micro simulation to study safety is more ethical and accessible than the traditional safety studies, which only assess historical crash data. However, current microscopic models are unable to mimic unsafe driver behavior, as they are based on presumptions of safe driver behavior. This highlights the need for a critical examination of the current microscopic models to determine which components and parameters have an effect on safety indicator reproduction. The question then arises whether these safety indicators are valid indicators of traffic safety. The safety indicators were therefore selected and tested for straight motorway segments in Brisbane, Australia. This test examined the capability of a micro-simulation model and presents a better understanding of micro-simulation models and how such models, in particular car following models can be enriched to present more accurate safety indicators.

Evaluation of modal analysis techniques using physical models to detect osseointegration of implants in transfemoral amputees

Non-invasive vibration analysis has been used extensively to monitor the progression of dental implant healing and stabilization. It is now being considered as a method to monitor femoral implants in transfemoral amputees. This paper evaluates two modal analysis excitation methods and investigates their capabilities in detecting changes at the interface between the implant and the bone that occur during osseointegration. Excitation of bone-implant physical models with the electromagnetic shaker provided higher coherence values and a greater number of modes over the same frequency range when compared to the impact hammer. Differences were detected in the natural frequencies and fundamental mode shape of the model when the fit of the implant was altered in the bone. The ability to detect changes in the model dynamic properties demonstrates the potential of modal analysis in this application and warrants further investigation.