Droplet digital PCR as a useful tool for the quantitative detection of Enterovirus 71

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a contagious viral disease that frequently affects infants and children and present with blisters and flu-like symptoms. This disease is caused by a group of enteroviruses such as enterovirus 71 (EV71) and coxsackievirus A16 (CA16). However, unlike other HFMD causing enteroviruses, EV71 have also been shown to be associated with more severe clinical manifestation such as aseptic meningitis, brainstem and cerebellar encephalitis which may lead to cardiopulmonary failure and death. Clinically, HFMD caused by EV71 is indistinguishable from other HFMD causing enteroviruses such as CA16. Molecular diagnosis methods such as the use of real-time PCR has been used commonly for the identification of EV71. In this study, two platforms namely the real-time PCR and the droplet digital PCR were compared for the detection quantitation of known EV71 viral copy number. The results reveal accurate and consistent results between the two platforms. In summary, the droplet digital PCR was demonstrated to be a promising technology for the identification and quantitation of EV71 viral copy number.

Nanoindentation study of the mechanical behavior of TiO2 nanotube arrays

Titanium dioxide (TiO2) nanotube arrays are attracting increasing attention for use in solar cells, lithium-ion batteries, and biomedical implants. To take full advantage of their unique physical properties, such arrays need to maintain adequate mechanical integrity in applications. However, the mechanical performance of TiO2 nanotube arrays is not well understood. In this work, we investigate the deformation and failure of TiO2 nanotube arrays using the nanoindentation technique. We found that the load–displacement response of the arrays strongly depends on the indentation depth and indenter shape. Substrate-independent elastic modulus and hardness can be obtained when the indentation depth is less than 2.5% of the array height. The deformation mechanisms of TiO2 nanotube arrays by Berkovich and conical indenters are closely associated with the densification of TiO2 nanotubes under compression. A theoretical model for deformation of the arrays under a largeradius conical indenter is also proposed.

Archiving primary data: Solutions for long-term studies

The recent trend for journals to require open access to primary data included in publications has been embraced by many biologists, but has caused apprehension amongst researchers engaged in long-term ecological and evolutionary studies. A worldwide survey of 73 principal investigators (Pls) with long-term studies revealed positive attitudes towards sharing data with the agreement or involvement of the PI, and 93% of PIs have historically shared data. Only 8% were in favor of uncontrolled, open access to primary data while 63% expressed serious concern. We present here their viewpoint on an issue that can have non-trivial scientific consequences. We discuss potential costs of public data archiving and provide possible solutions to meet the needs of journals and researchers.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Metal-free graphitic carbon nitride as mechano-catalyst for hydrogen evolution reaction

Graphitic carbon nitride (g-C3N4), as a promising metal-free catalyst for photo-catalytic and electrochemical water splitting, has recently attracted tremendous research interest. However, the underlying catalytic mechanism for the hydrogen evolution reaction (HER) is not fully understood. By using density functional theory calculations, here we have established that the binding free energy of hydrogen atom (ΔGH∗0) on g-C3N4 is very sensitive to mechanical strain, leading to substantial tuning of the HER performance of g-C3N4 at different coverages. The experimentally-observed high HER activity in N-doped graphene supported g-C3N4 (Zheng et al., 2014) is actually attributed to electron-transfer induced strain. A more practical strategy to induce mechanical strain in g-C3N4 is also proposed by doping a bridge carbon atom in g-C3N4 with an isoelectronic silicon atom. The calculated ΔGH∗0 on the Si-doped g-C3N4 is ideal for HER. Our results indicate that g-C3N4 would be an excellent metal-free mechano-catalyst for HER and this finding is expected to guide future experiments to efficiently split water into hydrogen based on the g-C3N4 materials.

Carbon nanodot decorated graphitic carbon nitride: New insights into the enhanced photocatalytic water splitting from ab initio studies

Interfacing carbon nanodots (C-dots) with graphitic carbon nitride (g-C3N4) produces a metal-free system that has recently demonstrated significant enhancement of photo-catalytic performance for water splitting into hydrogen [Science, 2015, 347, 970–974]. However, the underlying photo-catalytic mechanism is not fully established. Herein, we have carried out density functional theory (DFT) calculations to study the interactions between g-C3N4 and trigonal/hexagonal shaped C-dots. We find that hybrid C-dots/g-C3N4 can form a type-II van der Waals heterojunction, leading to significant reduction of band gap. The C-dot decorated g-C3N4 enhances the separation of photogenerated electron and hole pairs and the composite's visible light response. Interestingly, the band alignment of C-dots and g-C3N4 calculated by the hybrid functional method indicates that C-dots act as a spectral sensitizer in hybrid C-dots/g-C3N4 for water splitting. Our results offer new theoretical insights into this metal-free photocatalyst for water splitting.

Oxygen transport in a three-dimensional microvascular network incorporated with early tumour growth and preexisting vessel cooption: Numerical simulation study

We propose a dynamic mathematical model of tissue oxygen transport by a preexisting three-dimensional microvascular network which provides nutrients for an in situ cancer at the very early stage of primary microtumour growth. The expanding tumour consumes oxygen during its invasion to the surrounding tissues and cooption of host vessels. The preexisting vessel cooption, remodelling and collapse are modelled by the changes of haemodynamic conditions due to the growing tumour. A detailed computational model of oxygen transport in tumour tissue is developed by considering (a) the time-varying oxygen advection diffusion equation within the microvessel segments, (b) the oxygen flux across the vessel walls, and (c) the oxygen diffusion and consumption with in the tumour and surrounding healthy tissue. The results show the oxygen concentration distribution at different time points of early tumour growth. In addition, the influence of preexisting vessel density on the oxygen transport has been discussed. The proposed model not only provides a quantitative approach for investigating the interactions between tumour growth and oxygen delivery, but also is extendable to model other molecules or chemotherapeutic drug transport in the future study.

A hybrid cellular automata model of multicellular tumour spheroid growth in hypoxic microenvironment

A three-dimensional hybrid cellular automata (CA) model is developed to study the dynamic process of multicellular tumour spheroid (MTS) growth by introducing hypoxia as an important microenvironment factor which influences cell migration and cell phenotype expression. The model enables us to examine the effects of different hypoxic environments on the growth history of the MTS and to study the dynamic interactions between MTS growth and chemical environments. The results include the spatial distribution of different phenotypes of tumour cells and associated oxygen concentration distributions under hypoxic conditions. The discussion of the model system responses to the varied hypoxic conditions reveals that the improvement of the resistance of tumour cells to a hypoxic environment may be important in the tumour normalization therapy.

Plant height affects Fusarium crown rot severity in wheat

Effects of plant height on Fusarium crown rot (FCR) disease severity were investigated using 12 pairs of near-isogenic lines (NILs) for six different reduced height (Rht) genes in wheat. The dwarf isolines all gave better FCR resistance when compared with their respective tall counterparts, although the Rht genes involved in these NILs are located on several different chromosomes. Treating plants with exogenous gibberellin increased FCR severity as well as seedling lengths in all of the isolines tested. Analysis of the expression of several defense genes with known correlation with resistance to FCR pathogens between the Rht isolines following FCR inoculation indicated that the better resistance of the dwarf isolines was not due to enhanced defense gene induction. These results suggested that the difference in FCR severity between the tall and dwarf isolines is likely due to their height difference per se or to some physiological and structural consequences of reduced height. Thus, caution should be taken when considering to exploit any FCR locus located near a height gene.

Early stopping by using stochastic curtailment in a three-arm sequential trial

Summary. Interim analysis is important in a large clinical trial for ethical and cost considerations. Sometimes, an interim analysis needs to be performed at an earlier than planned time point. In that case, methods using stochastic curtailment are useful in examining the data for early stopping while controlling the inflation of type I and type II errors. We consider a three-arm randomized study of treatments to reduce perioperative blood loss following major surgery. Owing to slow accrual, an unplanned interim analysis was required by the study team to determine whether the study should be continued. We distinguish two different cases: when all treatments are under direct comparison and when one of the treatments is a control. We used simulations to study the operating characteristics of five different stochastic curtailment methods. We also considered the influence of timing of the interim analyses on the type I error and power of the test. We found that the type I error and power between the different methods can be quite different. The analysis for the perioperative blood loss trial was carried out at approximately a quarter of the planned sample size. We found that there is little evidence that the active treatments are better than a placebo and recommended closure of the trial.

An extension of the continual reassessment method using decision theory

The primary goal of a phase I trial is to find the maximally tolerated dose (MTD) of a treatment. The MTD is usually defined in terms of a tolerable probability, q*, of toxicity. Our objective is to find the highest dose with toxicity risk that does not exceed q*, a criterion that is often desired in designing phase I trials. This criterion differs from that of finding the dose with toxicity risk closest to q*, that is used in methods such as the continual reassessment method. We use the theory of decision processes to find optimal sequential designs that maximize the expected number of patients within the trial allocated to the highest dose with toxicity not exceeding q*, among the doses under consideration. The proposed method is very general in the sense that criteria other than the one considered here can be optimized and that optimal dose assignment can be defined in terms of patients within or outside the trial. It includes as an important special case the continual reassessment method. Numerical study indicates the strategy compares favourably with other phase I designs.

Bias reduction using stochastic approximation

The paper studies stochastic approximation as a technique for bias reduction. The proposed method does not require approximating the bias explicitly, nor does it rely on having independent identically distributed (i.i.d.) data. The method always removes the leading bias term, under very mild conditions, as long as auxiliary samples from distributions with given parameters are available. Expectation and variance of the bias-corrected estimate are given. Examples in sequential clinical trials (non-i.i.d. case), curved exponential models (i.i.d. case) and length-biased sampling (where the estimates are inconsistent) are used to illustrate the applications of the proposed method and its small sample properties.

Governance and regional variation of homicide rates: Evidence from cross-national data

Criminological theories of cross-national studies of homicide have underestimated the effects of quality governance of liberal democracy and region. Data sets from several sources are combined and a comprehensive model of homicide is proposed. Results of the spatial regression model, which controls for the effect of spatial autocorrelation, show that quality governance, human development, economic inequality, and ethnic heterogeneity are statistically significant in predicting homicide. In addition, regions of Latin America and non-Muslim Sub-Saharan Africa have significantly higher rates of homicides ceteris paribus while the effects of East Asian countries and Islamic societies are not statistically significant. These findings are consistent with the expectation of the new modernization and regional theories.

Steel–concrete–steel sandwich system in Arctic offshore structure: Materials, experiments, and design

The gravity based structure (GBS) with external Steel–Concrete–Steel (SCS) sandwich ice-resistant wall has been developed for the Arctic oil and gas drilling. This paper firstly reported the experimental studies on the mechanical properties of steel and concretes under Arctic low temperature. With the test data, design equations were developed to incorporate the influences of the low temperature on these mechanical properties. Two types of Arctic GBS structure with flower-conical SCS sandwich shell type and plate type of ice-resistant wall have been developed for the Arctic offshore structure. Besides the studies on the materials, two SCS sandwich prototype shells and plates were, respectively, prepared and tested under patch loading that simulated the localized ice-contact pressure. The structural behaviors of the SCS sandwich structure under patch loading were reported and discussions were made on the influences of different parameters on the structural behavior of the structure. Analytical models were developed to predict the punching shear resistances of the SCS sandwich structure through modifying the code provisions. The accuracies of the developed analytical models were checked through validations against 27 tests in the literature. Corresponding design procedures on resistances of SCS sandwich structure were recommended based on these discussions and validations.