A simple Bayesian decision-theoretic design for dose-finding trials

A flexible and simple Bayesian decision-theoretic design for dose-finding trials is proposed in this paper. In order to reduce the computational burden, we adopt a working model with conjugate priors, which is flexible to fit all monotonic dose-toxicity curves and produces analytic posterior distributions. We also discuss how to use a proper utility function to reflect the interest of the trial. Patients are allocated based on not only the utility function but also the chosen dose selection rule. The most popular dose selection rule is the one-step-look-ahead (OSLA), which selects the best-so-far dose. A more complicated rule, such as the two-step-look-ahead, is theoretically more efficient than the OSLA only when the required distributional assumptions are met, which is, however, often not the case in practice. We carried out extensive simulation studies to evaluate these two dose selection rules and found that OSLA was often more efficient than two-step-look-ahead under the proposed Bayesian structure. Moreover, our simulation results show that the proposed Bayesian method's performance is superior to several popular Bayesian methods and that the negative impact of prior misspecification can be managed in the design stage.

Analysing commercial catch and effort data from a penaeid trawl fishery: A comparison of linear models, mixed models, and generalised estimating equations approaches

Statistical methods are often used to analyse commercial catch and effort data to provide standardised fishing effort and/or a relative index of fish abundance for input into stock assessment models. Achieving reliable results has proved difficult in Australia's Northern Prawn Fishery (NPF), due to a combination of such factors as the biological characteristics of the animals, some aspects of the fleet dynamics, and the changes in fishing technology. For this set of data, we compared four modelling approaches (linear models, mixed models, generalised estimating equations, and generalised linear models) with respect to the outcomes of the standardised fishing effort or the relative index of abundance. We also varied the number and form of vessel covariates in the models. Within a subset of data from this fishery, modelling correlation structures did not alter the conclusions from simpler statistical models. The random-effects models also yielded similar results. This is because the estimators are all consistent even if the correlation structure is mis-specified, and the data set is very large. However, the standard errors from different models differed, suggesting that different methods have different statistical efficiency. We suggest that there is value in modelling the variance function and the correlation structure, to make valid and efficient statistical inferences and gain insight into the data. We found that fishing power was separable from the indices of prawn abundance only when we offset the impact of vessel characteristics at assumed values from external sources. This may be due to the large degree of confounding within the data, and the extreme temporal changes in certain aspects of individual vessels, the fleet and the fleet dynamics.

Partial intervertebral fusion secures successful outcomes after thoracoscopic anterior scoliosis correction: A low-dose computed tomography study

Study Design Retrospective review of prospectively collected data. Objectives To analyze intervertebral (IV) fusion after thoracoscopic anterior spinal fusion (TASF) and explore the relationship between fusion scores and key clinical variables. Summary of Background Information TASF provides comparable correction with some advantages over posterior approaches but reported mechanical complications, and their relationship to non-union and graft material is unclear. Similarly, the optimal combination of graft type and implant stiffness for effecting successful radiologic union remains undetermined. Methods A subset of patients from a large single-center series who had TASF for progressive scoliosis underwent low-dose computed tomographic scans 2 years after surgery. The IV fusion mass in the disc space was assessed using the 4-point Sucato scale, where 1 indicates <50% and 4 indicates 100% bony fusion of the disc space. The effects of rod diameter, rod material, graft type, fusion level, and mechanical complications on fusion scores were assessed. Results Forty-three patients with right thoracic major curves (mean age 14.9 years) participated in the study. Mean fusion scores for patient subgroups ranged from 1.0 (IV levels with rod fractures) to 2.2 (4.5-mm rod with allograft), with scores tending to decrease with increasing rod size and stiffness. Graft type (autograft vs. allograft) did not affect fusion scores. Fusion scores were highest in the middle levels of the rod construct (mean 2.52), dropping off by 20% to 30% toward the upper and lower extremities of the rod. IV levels where a rod fractured had lower overall mean fusion scores compared to levels without a fracture. Mean total Scoliosis Research Society (SRS) questionnaire scores were 98.9 from a possible total of 120, indicating a good level of patient satisfaction. Conclusions Results suggest that 100% radiologic fusion of the entire disc space is not necessary for successful clinical outcomes following thoracoscopic anterior selective thoracic fusion.

Closed-form solutions for low-rank non-rigid reconstruction

Recovering the motion of a non-rigid body from a set of monocular images permits the analysis of dynamic scenes in uncontrolled environments. However, the extension of factorisation algorithms for rigid structure from motion to the low-rank non-rigid case has proved challenging. This stems from the comparatively hard problem of finding a linear “corrective transform” which recovers the projection and structure matrices from an ambiguous factorisation. We elucidate that this greater difficulty is due to the need to find multiple solutions to a non-trivial problem, casting a number of previous approaches as alleviating this issue by either a) introducing constraints on the basis, making the problems nonidentical, or b) incorporating heuristics to encourage a diverse set of solutions, making the problems inter-dependent. While it has previously been recognised that finding a single solution to this problem is sufficient to estimate cameras, we show that it is possible to bootstrap this partial solution to find the complete transform in closed-form. However, we acknowledge that our method minimises an algebraic error and is thus inherently sensitive to deviation from the low-rank model. We compare our closed-form solution for non-rigid structure with known cameras to the closed-form solution of Dai et al. [1], which we find to produce only coplanar reconstructions. We therefore make the recommendation that 3D reconstruction error always be measured relative to a trivial reconstruction such as a planar one.

Direct shear testing on unsaturated silty soils to investigate the effects of drying and wetting on shear strength parameters at low suction

A modified conventional direct shear device was used to measure unsaturated shear strength of two silty soils at low suction values (0 ~ 50 kPa) that were achieved by following drying and wetting paths of soil water characteristic curves (SWCCs). The results revealed that the internal friction angle of the soils was not significantly affected by either the suction or the drying wetting SWCCs. The apparent cohesion of soil increased with a decreasing rate as suction increased. Shear stress-shear displacement curves obtained from soil specimens subjected to the same net normal stress and different suction values showed a higher initial stiffness and a greater peak stress as suction increased. A soil in wetting exhibited slightly higher peak shear stress and more contractive volume change behavior than that of soil in drying at the same net normal stress and suction.

Fire resistance of light gauge steel frame wall systems lined with gypsum plasterboards

Light gauge steel frame (LSF) wall systems are increasingly used in residential and commercial buildings as load bearing and non-load bearing elements. Conventionally, the fire resistance ratings of such building elements are determined using approximate prescriptive methods based on limited standard fire tests. However, recent studies have shown that in some instances real building fire time-temperature curves could be more severe than the standard fire curve, in terms of maximum temperature and rate of temperature rise. This has caused problems for safe evacuation and rescue activities, and in some instances has also lead to the collapse of buildings earlier than the prescribed fire resistance. Therefore a detailed research study into the performance of LSF wall systems under both standard fire and realistic fire conditions was undertaken using full scale fire tests to understand the fire performance of different LSF wall configurations. Both load bearing and non-load bearing full scale fire tests were performed on LSF walls configurations which included single layer, double layer, externally insulated wall panels made up of different steel sections and thicknesses of gypsum plasterboards. The non-load bearing fire test results were utilized to understand the factors affecting the fire resistance of LSF walls, while loading bearing fire test results led to development of simplified methods to predict the fire resistance ratings of load bearing LSF walls exposed to both standard and realistic design fires. This paper presents the results of full scale experimental study and highlights the effects of standard and realistic fire conditions on fire performance of LSF walls.

Fatigue capacity of cold-formed steel roof battens under cyclic wind uplift loads

Steel roofs made of thin cold-formed steel roof claddings and battens are widely used in low-rise residential and industrial buildings all around the world. However, they suffer from premature localised pull-through failures in the batten to rafter connections during high wind events. A recent study proposed a suitable design equation for the pull-through failures of thin steel roof battens. However, it was limited to static wind uplift loading. In contrast, most cyclone/storm events produce cyclic wind uplift forces on roofs for a significantly long period, thus causing premature fatigue pull-through failures at lower loads. Therefore, a series of constant amplitude cyclic load tests was conducted on small and full scale roof panels made of a commonly used industrial roof batten to develop their S-N curves. A series of multi-level cyclic tests, including the recently introduced low-high-low (LHL) fatigue loading test, was also undertaken to simulate a design cyclone. Using the S-N curves, the static pull-through design capacity equation was modified to include the effects of fatigue. Applicability of Miner’s rule was evaluated in order to predict the fatigue damage caused by multi-level cyclic tests such as the LHL test, and suitable modifications were made. The combined use of the modified Miner’s law and the S-N curve of roof battens will allow a conservative estimation of the fatigue design capacity of roof battens without conducting the LHL tests simulating a design cyclone. This paper presents the details of this study, and the results.

Plasma polymerised thin films for flexible electronic applications

The significant advancement and growth of organic and flexible electronic applications demand materials with enhanced properties. This paper reports the fabrication of a nonsynthetic polymer thin film using radio frequency plasma polymerisation of 3,7-dimethyl-1,6-octadien-3-ol. The fabricated optically transparent thin film exhibited refractive index of approximately 1.55 at 500 nm and rate of deposition was estimated to be 40 nm/min. The surface morphology and chemical properties of the thin films were also reported in this paper. The optical band gap of the material is around 2.8 eV. The force of adhesion and Young's modulus of the linalool polymer thin films were measured using force-displacement curves obtained from a scanning probe microscope. The friction coefficient of linalool polymer thin films was measured using the nanoscratch test. The calculated Young's modulus increased linearly with increase in input power while the friction coefficient decreased.

A novel approach to assessing road-curve crash severity

Curves are a common feature of road infrastructure; however crashes on road curves are associated with increased risk of injury and fatality to vehicle occupants. Countermeasures require the identification of contributing factors. However, current approaches to identifying contributors use traditional statistical methods and have not used self-reported narrative claim to identify factors related to the driver, vehicle and environment in a systemic way. Text mining of 3434 road-curve crash claim records filed between 1 January 2003 and 31 December 2005 at a major insurer in Queensland, Australia, was undertaken to identify risk levels and contributing factors. Rough set analysis was used on insurance claim narratives to identify significant contributing factors to crashes and their associated severity. New contributing factors unique to curve crashes were identified (e.g., tree, phone, over-steer) in addition to those previously identified via traditional statistical analysis of Police and licensing authority records. Text mining is a novel methodology to improve knowledge related to risk and contributing factors to road-curve crash severity. Future road-curve crash countermeasures should more fully consider the interrelationships between environment, the road, the driver and the vehicle, and education campaigns in particular could highlight the increased risk of crash on road-curves.

Investigation of the effects of extracellular osmotic pressure on morphology and mechanical 1 properties of individual chondrocyte

It has been demonstrated that most cells of the body respond to osmotic pressure in a systematic manner. The disruption of the collagen network in the early stages of osteoarthritis causes an increase in water content of cartilage which leads to a reduction of pericellular osmolality in chondrocytes distributed within the extracellular environment. It is therefore arguable that an insight into the mechanical properties of chondrocytes under varying osmotic pressure would provide a better understanding of chondrocyte mechanotransduction and potentially contribute to knowledge on cartilage degeneration. In this present study, the chondrocyte cells were exposed to solutions with different osmolality. Changes in their dimensions and mechanical properties were measured over time. Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) was used to apply load at various strain-rates and the force-time curves were logged. The thin-layer elastic model was used to extract the elastic stiffness of chondrocytes at different strain-rates and at different solution osmolality. In addition, the porohyperelastic (PHE) model was used to investigate the strain-rate dependent responses under the loading and osmotic pressure conditions. The results revealed that the hypo-osmotic external environment increased chondrocyte dimensions and reduced Young’s modulus of the cells at all strain-rates tested. In contrast, the hyper-osmotic external environment reduced dimensions and increased Young’s modulus. Moreover, by using the PHE model coupled with inverse FEA simulation, we established that the hydraulic permeability of chondrocytes increased with decreasing extracellular osmolality which is consistent with previous work in the literature. This could be due to a higher intracellular fluid volume fraction with lower osmolality.

Oral medication delivery in impaired swallowing: Thickening liquid medications for safe swallowing alters dissolution characteristics

Acetaminophen (paracetamol) is available in a wide range of oral formulations designed to meet the needs of the population across the age-spectrum, but for people with impaired swallowing, i.e. dysphagia, both solid and liquid medications can be difficult to swallow without modification. The effect of a commercial polysaccharide thickener, designed to be added to fluids to promote safe swallowing by dysphagic patients, on rheology and acetaminophen dissolution was tested using crushed immediate-release tablets in water, effervescent tablets in water, elixir and suspension. The inclusion of the thickener, comprised of xanthan gum and maltodextrin, had a considerable impact on dissolution; acetaminophen release from modified medications reached 12-50% in 30 minutes, which did not reflect the pharmacopeia specification for immediate release preparations. Flow curves reflect the high zero-shear viscosity and the apparent yield stress of the thickened products. The weak gel nature, in combination with high G’ values compared to G” (viscoelasticity) and high apparent yield stress, impact drug release. The restriction on drug release from these formulations is not influenced by the theoretical state of the drug (dissolved or dispersed), and the approach typically used in clinical practice (mixing crushed tablets into pre-prepared thickened fluid) cannot be improved by altering the order of incorporation or mixing method.

Drying characteristics and quality of grape under physical pretreatment

Grape drying is a slow and energy intensive process because the waxy peel has low permeability to moisture. Therefore, peel chemical and physical pretreatments are considered before drying in order to facilitate water diffusion. However, they cause heterogeneity in the waxes removal and problems during shelf-life. In this paper an alternative abrasive pretreatment of grape peel, for enhancing the drying rate and preserving the samples, was applied to Red Globe grapes. Convective drying experiments were carried out at 40-70 Centigrade and at 2.3 m/s air velocity. The effect of wax abrasive pretreatment on the drying kinetics and quality parameters of raisins was investigated. The results were compared with those of samples pretreated by dipping in alkaline ethyl oleate solution and untreated grapes. All the dried samples are darker than fresh one and shrunked. The samples pretreated by peel abrasion and dried at 50 centigrade showed the lowest color changes, less shrinkage and the best rehydration capacity. The drying kinetics and shrinkage curves were also analyzed using some commonly available empirical models.

The association of chronic kidney disease and dialysis treatment with foot ulceration and major amputation

Objective The objective of this study was to investigate the risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD) stage 4-5 and dialysis treatment on incidence of foot ulceration and major lower extremity amputation in comparison to CKD stage 3. Methods In this retrospective study, all individuals who visited our hospital between 2006 and 2012 because of CKD stages 3 to 5 or dialysis treatment were included. Medical records were reviewed for incidence of foot ulceration and major amputation. The time from CKD 3, CKD 4-5, and dialysis treatment until first foot ulceration and first major lower extremity amputation was calculated and analyzed by Kaplan-Meier curves and multivariate Cox proportional hazards model. Diabetes mellitus, peripheral arterial disease, peripheral neuropathy, and foot deformities were included for potential confounding. Results A total of 669 individuals were included: 539 in CKD 3, 540 in CKD 4-5, and 259 in dialysis treatment (individuals could progress from one group to the next). Unadjusted foot ulcer incidence rates per 1000 patients per year were 12 for CKD 3, 47 for CKD 4-5, and 104 for dialysis (P < .001). In multivariate analyses, the hazard ratio for incidence of foot ulceration was 4.0 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.6-6.3) in CKD 4-5 and 7.6 (95% CI, 4.8-12.1) in dialysis treatment compared with CKD 3. Hazard ratios for incidence of major amputation were 9.5 (95% CI, 2.1-43.0) and 15 (95% CI, 3.3-71.0), respectively. Conclusions CKD 4-5 and dialysis treatment are independent risk factors for foot ulceration and major amputation compared with CKD 3. Maximum effort is needed in daily clinical practice to prevent foot ulcers and their devastating consequences in all individuals with CKD 4-5 or dialysis treatment.

Short and long term mortality rates after a lower limb amputation

Objective To determine mortality rates after a first lower limb amputation and explore the rates for different subpopulations. Methods Retrospective cohort study of all people who underwent a first amputation at or proximal to transtibial level, in an area of 1.7 million people. Analysis with Kaplan-Meier curves and Log Rank tests for univariate associations of psycho-social and health variables. Logistic regression for odds of death at 30-days, 1-year and 5-years. Results 299 people were included. Median time to death was 20.3 months (95%CI: 13.1; 27.5). 30-day mortality = 22%; odds of death 2.3 times higher in people with history of cerebrovascular disease (95%CI: 1.2; 4.7, P = 0.016). 1 year mortality = 44%; odds of death 3.5 times higher for people with renal disease (95%CI: 1.8; 7.0, P < 0.001). 5-years mortality = 77%; odds of death 5.4 times higher for people with renal disease (95%CI: 1.8; 16.0,P = 0.003). Variation in mortality rates was most apparent in different age groups; people 75–84 years having better short term outcomes than those younger and older. Conclusions Mortality rates demonstrated the frailty of this population, with almost one quarter of people dying within 30-days, and almost half at 1 year. People with cerebrovascular had higher odds of death at 30 days, and those with renal disease and 1 and 5 years, respectively.

Meltdown - a tool for classification and analysis of DSF data

An application that translates raw thermal melt curve data into more easily assimilated knowledge is described. This program, called ‘Meltdown’, performs a number of data remediation steps before classifying melt curves and estimating melting temperatures. The final output is a report that summarizes the results of a differential scanning fluorimetry experiment. Meltdown uses a Bayesian classification scheme, enabling reproducible identification of various trends commonly found in DSF datasets. The goal of Meltdown is not to replace human analysis of the raw data, but to provide a sensible interpretation of the data to make this useful experimental technique accessible to naïve users, as well as providing a starting point for detailed analyses by more experienced users.