Complex symbolic sequence clustering and multiple classifiers for predictive process monitoring

This paper addresses the following predictive business process monitoring problem: Given the execution trace of an ongoing case,and given a set of traces of historical (completed) cases, predict the most likely outcome of the ongoing case. In this context, a trace refers to a sequence of events with corresponding payloads, where a payload consists of a set of attribute-value pairs. Meanwhile, an outcome refers to a label associated to completed cases, like, for example, a label indicating that a given case completed “on time” (with respect to a given desired duration) or “late”, or a label indicating that a given case led to a customer complaint or not. The paper tackles this problem via a two-phased approach. In the first phase, prefixes of historical cases are encoded using complex symbolic sequences and clustered. In the second phase, a classifier is built for each of the clusters. To predict the outcome of an ongoing case at runtime given its (uncompleted) trace, we select the closest cluster(s) to the trace in question and apply the respective classifier(s), taking into account the Euclidean distance of the trace from the center of the clusters. We consider two families of clustering algorithms – hierarchical clustering and k-medoids – and use random forests for classification. The approach was evaluated on four real-life datasets.

Multifaceted Modelling of Complex Business Enterprises

We formalise and present a new generic multifaceted complex system approach for modelling complex business enterprises. Our method has a strong focus on integrating the various data types available in an enterprise which represent the diverse perspectives of various stakeholders. We explain the challenges faced and define a novel approach to converting diverse data types into usable Bayesian probability forms. The data types that can be integrated include historic data, survey data, and management planning data, expert knowledge and incomplete data. The structural complexities of the complex system modelling process, based on various decision contexts, are also explained along with a solution. This new application of complex system models as a management tool for decision making is demonstrated using a railway transport case study. The case study demonstrates how the new approach can be utilised to develop a customised decision support model for a specific enterprise. Various decision scenarios are also provided to illustrate the versatility of the decision model at different phases of enterprise operations such as planning and control.

Dynamic Bayesian network inferencing for non-homogeneous complex systems

Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) provide a versatile platform for predicting and analysing the behaviour of complex systems. As such, they are well suited to the prediction of complex ecosystem population trajectories under anthropogenic disturbances such as the dredging of marine seagrass ecosystems. However, DBNs assume a homogeneous Markov chain whereas a key characteristics of complex ecosystems is the presence of feedback loops, path dependencies and regime changes whereby the behaviour of the system can vary based on past states. This paper develops a method based on the small world structure of complex systems networks to modularise a non-homogeneous DBN and enable the computation of posterior marginal probabilities given evidence in forwards inference. It also provides an approach for an approximate solution for backwards inference as convergence is not guaranteed for a path dependent system. When applied to the seagrass dredging problem, the incorporation of path dependency can implement conditional absorption and allows release from the zero state in line with environmental and ecological observations. As dredging has a marked global impact on seagrass and other marine ecosystems of high environmental and economic value, using such a complex systems model to develop practical ways to meet the needs of conservation and industry through enhancing resistance and/or recovery is of paramount importance.

How does complex adaptive system theory inform innovation in complex project based organisations?

Innovation enables organisations to endure by responding to emergence and to improve efficiency. Innovation in a complex organisation can be difficult due to complexities contributing to slow decision-making. Complex projects fail due to an inability to respond to emergence which consumes finances and impacts on resources and organisational success. Therefore, for complex organisations to improve on performance and resilience, it would be advantageous to understand how to improve the management of innovation and thus, the ability to respond to emergence. The benefits to managers are an increase in the number of successful projects and improved productivity. This study will explore innovation management in a complex project based organisation. The contribution to the academic literature will be an in-depth, qualitative exploration of innovation in a complex project based organisation using a comparative case study approach.

Complex permittivity measurements of RF plasma polymerized polyterpenol organic thin films employing split post dielectric resonator

In the fields of organic electronics and biotechnology, applications for organic polymer thin films fabricated using low-temperature non-equilibrium plasma techniques are gaining significant attention because of the physical and chemical stability of thin films and the low cost of production. Polymer thin films were fabricated from non-synthetic terpinen-4-ol using radiofrequency polymerization (13.56 MHz) on low loss dielectric substrates and their permittivity properties were ascertained to determine potential applications for these organic films. Real and imaginary parts of permittivity as a function of frequency were measured using the variable angle spectroscopic ellipsometer. The real part of permittivity (k) was found to be between 2.34 and 2.65 in the wavelength region of 400–1100 nm, indicating a potential low-k material. These permittivity values were confirmed at microwave frequencies. Dielectric properties of polyterpenol films were measured by means of split post dielectric resonators (SPDRs) operating at frequencies of 10 GHz and 20 GHz. Permittivity increased for samples deposited at higher RF energy – from 2.65 (25 W) to 2.83 (75 W) measured by a 20-GHz SPDR and from 2.32 (25 W) to 2.53 (100 W) obtained using a 10-GHz SPDR. The error in permittivity measurement was predominantly attributed to the uncertainty in film thickness measurement.

The importance of modelling heterogeneity in complex disease: application to NIMH Schizophrenia Genetics Initiative data

As for other complex diseases, linkage analyses of schizophrenia (SZ) have produced evidence for numerous chromosomal regions, with inconsistent results reported across studies. The presence of locus heterogeneity appears likely and may reduce the power of linkage analyses if homogeneity is assumed. In addition, when multiple heterogeneous datasets are pooled, inter-sample variation in the proportion of linked families (alpha) may diminish the power of the pooled sample to detect susceptibility loci, in spite of the larger sample size obtained. We compare the significance of linkage findings obtained using allele-sharing LOD scores (LOD(exp))-which assume homogeneity-and heterogeneity LOD scores (HLOD) in European American and African American NIMH SZ families. We also pool these two samples and evaluate the relative power of the LOD(exp) and two different heterogeneity statistics. One of these (HLOD-P) estimates the heterogeneity parameter alpha only in aggregate data, while the second (HLOD-S) determines alpha separately for each sample. In separate and combined data, we show consistently improved performance of HLOD scores over LOD(exp). Notably, genome-wide significant evidence for linkage is obtained at chromosome 10p in the European American sample using a recessive HLOD score. When the two samples are combined, linkage at the 10p locus also achieves genome-wide significance under HLOD-S, but not HLOD-P. Using HLOD-S, improved evidence for linkage was also obtained for a previously reported region on chromosome 15q. In linkage analyses of complex disease, power may be maximised by routinely modelling locus heterogeneity within individual datasets, even when multiple datasets are combined to form larger samples.

Social work and complex care systems: The case of people hospitalised with a disability

Health and hospital system reforms prioritise efficiency. However, initiatives can impact on people with new or existing disabilities who require time to maximise functional independence. With greater demands for shorter hospital stays social workers face increasing pressure to facilitate discharge. This paper reports findings from research identifying factors contributing to extended stays for adults with disabilities. We sought to better understand patient characteristics and discharge planning challenges by analysing a clinical data set of 80 patients and qualitative interviews with five experienced hospital social workers. Three key factors are identified: issues around rehabilitation services; assessment and planning for community care; and availability of and access to discharge options. Strategies to reduce length of stay are reported. We argue that building collaborative partnerships and working across multiple, complex systems and disciplines are vital to ensure these patients access appropriate community-based resources within the current health reform environment.

Superhydrophobic fabrics for oil-water separation based on the metal organic charge transfer complex CuTCNAQ

This work reports on the fabrication of a superhydrophobic nylon textile based on the organic charge transfer complex CuTCNAQ (TCNAQ = 11,11,12,12-tetracyanoanthraquinodimethane). The nylon fabric that is metallized with copper undergoes a spontaneous chemical reaction with TCNAQ dissolved in acetonitrile to form nanorods of CuTCNAQ that are intertwined over the entire surface of the fabric. This creates the necessary micro and nanoscale roughness that is required for the Cassie-Baxter state thereby achieving a superhydrophobic/superoleophilic surface without the need for a fluorinated surface. The material is characterised with SEM, FT-IR and XPS spectroscopy and investigated for its ability to separate oil and water in two modes, namely under gravity and as an absorbent. It is found that the fabric can separate dichloromethane, olive oil and crude oil from water and in fact reduce the water content of the oil during the separation process. The fabric is reusable and tolerant to conditions such as seawater, hydrochloric acid and extensive time periods on the shelf. Given that CuTCNAQ is a copper based semiconductor may also open up the possibility of other applications in areas such as photocatalysis and antibacterial applications.

Assessing the integrated sustainability of a public rental housing project from the perspective of complex eco-system

Public rental housing (PRH) projects are the mainstream of China's new affordable housing policies, and their integrated sustainability has a far-reaching effect on medium-low income families' well-being and social stability. However, there are few quantitative researches on the integrated sustainability of PRH projects. Our study tries to fill this gap through proposing an assessment model of the integrated sustainability for PRH projects. First, this paper defines what the sustainability of a PRH project is. Second, after constructing the sustainable system of a PRH project from the perspective of complex eco-system, the paper explores the internal operation mechanism and the coupling mechanism among the ecological, economic and social subsystems. Third, it identifies fourteen indices to represent the sustainability system of a PRH project, including six indices of ecological subsystem, five of economic subsystem and three of social subsystem. Fourth, it qualifies the weights of three subsystems and their internal representative indices. In addition, an assessment model is established through expert surveys and analytic network process (ANP). Finally, the paper carries out an empirical research on a PRH project in Nanjing city of China, followed by suggestions to enhance the integrated sustainability. The sustainability system and its evaluation model proposed in this paper are concise and easy to understand and can provide a theoretical foundation and a scientific basis for the evaluation and optimization of PRH projects.

Lidar heat map based channel sounding for complex wireless environments

This thesis is a development of a methodology to predict the radio transmitter signal attenuation, via vertical density profiling of digitised objects, through the use of Light Detection and Ranging (LiDaR) measurements. The resulting map of indexed signal attenuation is useful for dynamic radio transmitter placement within the geospatial data set without expensive and tedious radio measurements.

Dancing practices from multiple perspectives: the increasingly complex role of the contemporary dancer

This paper will discuss the complexities of the role of contemporary dancer in this current epoch, with a particular focus on the multiple identities dancers embody within dance practice and how these accumulate to form a creative self-in-process or ‘moving identity’. Wider issues, such as training will be explored questioning how technical skills can be imparted alongside autonomous learning approaches to ensure that dancers are prepared to negotiate the entrepreneurial ecology of various dance sectors. Furthermore, the paper will examine the shifting relationship between choreographer and dancer from hierarchical to co-creative including how, in spite of the often collaborative nature of dance creation, the marketplace continues to celebrate the singular authorial position of the choreographer. Each of these elements will reflect back the complex issues of agency and creative self-hood that dancers must negotiate in an increasingly diverse and changeable arts environment.

Criminal intent

The High Court recently heard submissions of counsel in Zaburoni v The Queen. This case concerns an appeal against conviction for transmitting a serious disease with intent under section 317(b) and (e) of the Queensland Criminal Code. It raises important issues about the meaning of intent and how intent can be proven in Queensland criminal offences. Since intent is an element of so many of the more serious crimes, it is surprising to see that the courts, both in England and Australia, continue to grapple with how best to define it. In murder, for example, the accused is potentially going to be locked up for a very long time, so it is essential that the courts and juries are very clear on what intent actually means, so that they can be confident in correctly finding that it was present on the facts of the case.

The ghost in the city industrial complex: Le Corbusier and the fascist theory of Urbanisme

Le Corbusier participated in an urban dialogue with the first group in France to call itself fascist: the journalist Georges Valois’s militant Faisceau des Combattants et Producteurs (1925-1927), the “Blue Shirts,” inspired by the Italian “Fasci” of Mussolini. Le Corbusier’s portrait photograph materialised on the front cover of the January 1927 issue of the Faisceau League’s newspaper Le Nouveau Siècle edited by the former anarcho-syndicalist journalist Georges Valois, its leader, who fashioned himself as the French Mussolini. Le Corbusier was described in the Revue as one of les animateurs (the “organisers”) of the Party1 – meaning a member of the technical elite who would drive the Faisceau’s plans. On 1 May 1927, the Nouveau Siècle printed a full-page feature “Le Plan Voisin” on Le Corbusier’s 1922 redesign of Paris : the architect’s single-point perspective sketch appeared below an extract lifted from the architect’s original polemic Le Centre de Paris on the pages of Le Corbusier’s second book Urbanisme published two years earlier, a treatise on urbanism.2 Three weeks later, Le Corbusier presented a slide show of his urban plans at a fascist rally for the inauguration of the Faisceau’s new headquarters on the rue du faubourg Poissonniere, thereby crystalising the architect’s hallowed status in the league...

Managing uncertainty to improve the cost performance of complex infrastructure projects

There has been a recent spate of high profile infrastructure cost overruns in Australia and internationally. This is just the tip of a longer-term and more deeply-seated problem with initial budget estimating practice, well recognised in both academic research and industry reviews: the problem of uncertainty. A case study of the Sydney Opera House is used to identify and illustrate the key causal factors and system dynamics of cost overruns. It is conventionally the role of risk management to deal with such uncertainty, but the type and extent of the uncertainty involved in complex projects is shown to render established risk management techniques ineffective. This paper considers a radical advance on current budget estimating practice which involves a particular approach to statistical modelling complemented by explicit training in estimating practice. The statistical modelling approach combines the probability management techniques of Savage, which operate on actual distributions of values rather than flawed representations of distributions, and the data pooling technique of Skitmore, where the size of the reference set is optimised. Estimating training employs particular calibration development methods pioneered by Hubbard, which reduce the bias of experts caused by over-confidence and improve the consistency of subjective decision-making. A new framework for initial budget estimating practice is developed based on the combined statistical and training methods, with each technique being explained and discussed.

Using Bayesian networks to model surveillance in complex plant and animal health systems

In this chapter we consider biosecurity surveillance as part of a complex system comprising many different biological, environmental and human factors and their interactions. Modelling and analysis of surveillance strategies should take into account these complexities, and also facilitate the use and integration of the many types of different information that can provide insight into the system as a whole. After a brief discussion of a range of options, we focus on Bayesian networks for representing such complex systems. We summarize the features of Bayesian networks and describe these in the context of surveillance.