Factors affecting the accuracy of engineers' estimates

Emerging sciences, such as conceptual cost estimating, seem to have to go through two phases. The first phase involves reducing the field of study down to its basic ingredients - from systems development to technological development (techniques) to theoretical development. The second phase operates in the direction in building up techniques from theories, and systems from techniques. Cost estimating is clearly and distinctly still in the first phase. A great deal of effort has been put into the development of both manual and computer based cost estimating systems during this first phase and, to a lesser extent, the development of a range of techniques that can be used (see, for instance, Ashworth & Skitmore, 1986). Theoretical developments have not, as yet, been forthcoming. All theories need the support of some observational data and cost estimating is not likely to be an exception. These data do not need to be complete in order to build theories. As it is possible to construct an image of a prehistoric animal such as the brontosaurus from only a few key bones and relics, so a theory of cost estimating may possibly be found on a few factual details. The eternal argument of empiricists and deductionists is that, as theories need factual support, so do we need theories in order to know what facts to collect. In cost estimating, the basic facts of interest concern accuracy, the cost of achieving this accuracy, and the trade off between the two. When cost estimating theories do begin to emerge, it is highly likely that these relationships will be central features. This paper presents some of the facts we have been able to acquire regarding one part of this relationship - accuracy, and its influencing factors. Although some of these factors, such as the amount of information used in preparing the estimate, will have cost consequences, we have not yet reached the stage of quantifying these costs. Indeed, as will be seen, many of the factors do not involve any substantial cost considerations. The absence of any theory is reflected in the arbitrary manner in which the factors are presented. Rather, the emphasis here is on the consideration of purely empirical data concerning estimating accuracy. The essence of good empirical research is to .minimize the role of the researcher in interpreting the results of the study. Whilst space does not allow a full treatment of the material in this manner, the principle has been adopted as closely as possible to present results in an uncleaned and unbiased way. In most cases the evidence speaks for itself. The first part of the paper reviews most of the empirical evidence that we have located to date. Knowledge of any work done, but omitted here would be most welcome. The second part of the paper presents an analysis of some recently acquired data pertaining to this growing subject.

Critical Factors for Sustainable Post Natural Disaster Reconstruction : Chinese Data

While scientists continue to explore the level of climate change impact to new weather patterns and our environment in general, there have been some devastating natural disasters worldwide in the last two decades. Indeed natural disasters are becoming a major concern in our society. Yet in many previous examples, our reconstruction efforts only focused on providing short-term necessities. How to develop resilience in the long run is now a highlight for research and industry practice. This paper introduces a research project aimed at exploring the relationship between resilience building and sustainability in order to identify key factors during reconstruction efforts. From extensive literature study, the authors considered the inherent linkage between the two issues as evidenced from past research. They found that sustainability considerations can improve the level of resilience but are not currently given due attention. Reconstruction efforts need to focus on resilience factors but as part of urban development, they must also respond to the sustainability challenge. Sustainability issues in reconstruction projects need to be amplified, identified, processed, and managed properly. On-going research through empirical study aims to establish critical factors (CFs) for stakeholders in disaster prone areas to plan for and develop new building infrastructure through holistic considerations and balanced approaches to sustainability. A questionnaire survey examined a range of potential factors and the subsequent data analysis revealed six critical factors for sustainable Post Natural Disaster Reconstruction that include: considerable building materials and construction methods, good governance, multilateral coordination, appropriate land-use planning and policies, consideration of different social needs, and balanced combination of long-term and short-term needs. Findings from this study should have an influence on policy development towards Post Natural Disaster Reconstruction and help with the achievement of sustainable objectives.

Factors associated with suboptimal adherence to antiretroviral therapy in Viet Nam: A cross-sectional study using audio computer-assisted self-interview (ACASI)

Background: Optimal adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) is necessary for people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV). There have been relatively few systematic analyses of factors that promote or inhibit adherence to antiretroviral therapy among PLHIV in Asia. This study assessed ART adherence and examined factors associated with suboptimal adherence in northern Viet Nam. Methods: Data from 615 PLHIV on ART in two urban and three rural outpatient clinics were collected by medical record extraction and from patient interviews using audio computer-assisted self-interview (ACASI). Results: The prevalence of suboptimal adherence was estimated to be 24.9% via a visual analogue scale (VAS) of past-month dose-missing and 29.1% using a modified Adult AIDS Clinical Trial Group scale for on-time dose-taking in the past 4 days. Factors significantly associated with the more conservative VAS score were: depression (p < 0.001), side-effect experiences (p < 0.001), heavy alcohol use (p = 0.001), chance health locus of control (p = 0.003), low perceived quality of information from care providers (p = 0.04) and low social connectedness (p = 0.03). Illicit drug use alone was not significantly associated with suboptimal adherence, but interacted with heavy alcohol use to reduce adherence (p < 0.001). Conclusions: This is the largest survey of ART adherence yet reported from Asia and the first in a developing country to use the ACASI method in this context. The evidence strongly indicates that ART services in Viet Nam should include screening and treatment for depression, linkage with alcohol and/or drug dependence treatment, and counselling to address the belief that chance or luck determines health outcomes.

Factors affecting marketing decision making with an ethical content : collusive tendering in the construction contract market

Reports of immoral marketing practices i n the construction industry attract political, media and public but not much academic interest. This paper adopts a behavioural perspective and proposes a model for applying marketing ethics concepts and methods in the study of collusion in the construction contract market. An extensive multidisciplinary review of existing literature identified a lack of adequate conceptualisation of the mechanisms and decision making factors of collusive tendering. The process of developing the model is detailed in this paper. The objectives and methodology of the research project that tested the model are also outlined. The paper concludes with a brief note on the contributions and application of the proposed model.

Human factors in estimating

It is commonly held that the ability of the estimator to apply professional skill and judgement is an important factor in the production of an accurate cost estimate. This chapter identifies these abilities and attributes of the individual estimator that affects estimating accuracy. These human factors are examined under the headings of the role of the estimators, skills of the estimator, characteristics of the estimator, interpretation of data, and the influence of expertise.

Critical factors for successful housing reconstruction projects following a major disaster

Post–disaster reconstruction projects are often considered ineffectual or unproductive because on many occasions in the past they have performed extremely poorly during post-contract occupation, or have failed altogether to deliver acceptable outcomes. In some cases, these projects have already failed even before their completion, leading many sponsor aid organisations to hold these projects up as examples of how not to deliver housing reconstruction. Research into some previous unsuccessful projects has revealed that often the lack of adequate knowledge regarding the context and complexity involved in the implementation of these projects is generally responsible for their failure. Post-disaster reconstruction projects are certainly very complex in nature, often very context-specific and they can vary widely in magnitude. Despite such complexity, reconstruction projects can still have a high likelihood of success if adequate consideration is given to the importance of factors which are known to positively influence reconstruction efforts. Good outcomes can be achieved when planners and practitioners ensure best practices are embedded in the design of reconstruction projects at the time reconstruction projects they are first instigated. This paper outlines and discusses factors that significantly contribute to the successful delivery of post-disaster housing reconstruction projects.

Factors affecting timely completion of a PhD : a complex systems approach

Completing a PhD on time is a complex process, influenced by many interacting factors. In this paper we take a Bayesian Network approach to analyzing the factors perceived to be important in achieving this aim. Focusing on a single research group in Mathematical Sciences, we develop a conceptual model to describe the factors considered to be important to students and then quantify the network based on five individual perspectives: the students, a supervisor and a university research students centre manager. The resultant network comprised 37 factors and 40 connections, with an overall probability of timely completion of between 0.6 and 0.8. Across all participants, the four factors that were considered to most directly influence timely completion were personal aspects, the research environment, the research project, and incoming skills.

Unravelling the maze : Hepatitis C, psychosocial factors and access to antiviral therapy

In this paper we present an examination of the literature on the psychosocial aspects of hepatitis C (HCV), and ask what are the implications for patients and clinicians regarding access to treatment? Hepatitis C (HCV) is a blood-borne communicable disease that was identified in 1988. In Australia, an estimated 217,000 people live with HCV. The virus causes serious liver inflammation, can lead to liver cirrhosis and a small percentage of sufferers will develop hepatocellular carcinoma. Reports about the psychosocial aspects of HCV appeared from around 1994 indicating a similar set of societal responses to people with HIV; stigmatisation and discrimination. A number of calls were made for the establishment of counselling and support services to address the specific mental health needs of people with HCV. We conducted a systematic review of the literature between 2002-2012 about the psychosocial aspects of HCV and its relationship to access to treatment and identified a number of key issues that suggest the anticipated progress in this area has not been made. The majority of people with HCV already experience marginalisation, and the diagnosis of HCV further compounds their marginalisation through stigma and discrimination and complicates clinical decision-making around treatment. We conclude that the need for mental health services that are capable of addressing the complexities of the psychosocial aspects of HCV remains. Concomitantly, primary care clinicians require greater clarity and consistency about the clinical guidelines for HCV to meet the increasing expectations on them to deliver comprehensive patient management within primary care. (248 words)

Examining the influence of participant performance factors on contractor satisfaction : a structural equation model

Participant performance is critical to the success of projects. At the same time, enhancing the satisfaction of participants not only helps in problem solving but also improves their motivation and cooperation. However, previous research related to participant satisfaction is primarily concerned with clients and customers and relatively little attention has been paid to contractors. This paper investigates how the performance of project participants affects contractor project satisfaction in terms of the client's clarity of objectives (OC) and promptness of payments (PP), designer carefulness (DC), construction risk management (RM), the effectiveness their contribution (EW) and mutual respect and trust (RT). With 125 valid responses from contractors in Malaysia, a contractor satisfaction model is developed based on structural equation modelling. The results demonstrate the necessity for dividing abstract satisfaction into two dimensions, comprising economic-related satisfaction (ES) and production-related satisfaction (PS), with DC, OC, PP and RM having significant effects on ES, while DC, OC, EW and RM influence PS. In addition, the model tests the indirect effects of these performance variables on ES and PS. In particular, OC indirectly affects ES and PS through mediation of RM and DC respectively. The results also provide opportunities for improving contractor satisfaction and supplementing the contractor selection criteria for clients.

Nutrition screening and risk factors prior to chemotherapy in cancer patients 65 years and older

Background The largest proportion of cancer patients are aged 65 years and over. Increasing age is also associated with nutritional risk and multi-morbidities—factors which complicate the cancer treatment decision-making process in older patients. Objectives To determine whether malnutrition risk and Body Mass Index (BMI) are associated with key oncogeriatric variables as potential predictors of chemotherapy outcomes in geriatric oncology patients with solid tumours. Methods In this longitudinal study, geriatric oncology patients (aged ≥65 years) received a Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA) for baseline data collection prior to the commencement of chemotherapy treatment. Malnutrition risk was assessed using the Malnutrition Screening Tool (MST) and BMI was calculated using anthropometric data. Nutritional risk was compared with other variables collected as part of standard CGA. Associations were determined by chi-square tests and correlations. Results Over half of the 175 geriatric oncology patients were at risk of malnutrition (53.1%) according to MST. BMI ranged from 15.5–50.9kg/m2, with 35.4% of the cohort overweight when compared to geriatric cutoffs. Malnutrition risk was more prevalent in those who were underweight (70%) although many overweight participants presented as at risk (34%). Malnutrition risk was associated with a diagnosis of colorectal or lung cancer (p=0.001), dependence in activities of daily living (p=0.015) and impaired cognition (p=0.049). Malnutrition risk was positively associated with vulnerability to intensive cancer therapy (rho=0.16, p=0.038). Larger BMI was associated with a greater number of multi-morbidities (rho =.27, p=0.001. Conclusions Malnutrition risk is prevalent among geriatric patients undergoing chemotherapy, is more common in colorectal and lung cancer diagnoses, is associated with impaired functionality and cognition and negatively influences ability to complete planned intensive chemotherapy.

Establishment and characterisation of an open mini-thoracotomy surgical approach to an ovine thoracic spine fusion model

Background A large animal model is required for assessment of minimally invasive, tissue engineering based approaches to thoracic spine fusion, with relevance to deformity correction surgery for human adolescent idiopathic scoliosis. Here we develop a novel open mini–thoracotomy approach in an ovine model of thoracic interbody fusion which allows assessment of various fusion constructs, with a focus on novel, tissue engineering based interventions. Methods The open mini-thoracotomy surgical approach was developed through a series of mock surgeries, and then applied in a live sheep study. Customized scaffolds were manufactured to conform with intervertebral disc space clearances required of the study. Twelve male Merino sheep aged 4 to 6 years and weighing 35 – 45 kg underwent the abovementioned procedure and were divided into two groups of six sheep at survival timelines of 6 and 12 months. Each sheep underwent a 3-level discectomy (T6/7, T8/9 and T10/11) with randomly allocated implantation of a different graft substitute at each of the three levels; (i) polycaprolactone (PCL) based scaffold plus 0.54μg rhBMP-2, (ii) PCL-based scaffold alone or (iii) autograft. The sheep were closely monitored post- operatively for signs of pain (i.e. gait abnormalities/ teeth gnawing/ social isolation). Fusion assessments were conducted post-sacrifice using Computed Tomography and hard-tissue histology. All scientific work was undertaken in accordance with the study protocol has been approved by the Institute's committee on animal research. Results. All twelve sheep were successfully operated on and reached the allotted survival timelines, thereby demonstrating the feasibility of the surgical procedure and post-operative care. There were no significant complications and during the post-operative period the animals did not exhibit marked signs of distress according to the described assessment criteria. Computed Tomographic scanning demonstrated higher fusion grades in the rhBMP-2 plus PCL-based scaffold group in comparison to either PCL-based scaffold alone or autograft. These results were supported by histological evaluation of the respective groups. Conclusion. This novel open mini-thoracotomy surgical approach to the ovine thoracic spine represents a safe surgical method which can reproducibly form the platform for research into various spine tissue engineered constructs (TEC) and their fusion promoting properties.

Biological performance of a polycaprolactone-based scaffold plus recombinant human morphogenetic protein-2 (rhBMP-2) in an ovine thoracic interbody fusion model

Introduction. We develop a sheep thoracic spine interbody fusion model to study the suitability of polycaprolactone-based scaffold and recombinant human bone morphogenetic protein-2 (rhBMP-2) as a bone graft substitute within the thoracic spine. The surgical approach is a mini- open thoracotomy with relevance to minimally invasive deformity correction surgery for adolescent idiopathic scoliosis. To date there are no studies examining the use of this biodegradable implant in combination with biologics in a sheep thoracic spine model. Methods. In the present study, six sheep underwent a 3-level (T6/7, T8/9 and T10/11) discectomy with randomly allocated implantation of a different graft substitute at each of the three levels; (i) calcium phosphate (CaP) coated polycaprolactone based scaffold plus 0.54µg rhBMP-2, (ii) CaP coated PCL- based scaffold alone or (iii) autograft (mulched rib head). Fusion was assessed at six months post-surgery. Results. Computed Tomographic scanning demonstrated higher fusion grades in the rhBMP-2 plus PCL- based scaffold group in comparison to either PCL-based scaffold alone or autograft. These results were supported by histological evaluations of the respective groups. Biomechanical testing revealed significantly higher stiffness for the rhBMP-2 plus PCL- based scaffold group in all loading directions in comparison to the other two groups. Conclusions. The results of this study demonstrate that rhBMP-2 plus PCL-based scaffold is a viable bone graft substitute, providing an optimal environment for thoracic interbody spinal fusion in a large animal model.

Inter-vertebral rotational deformity after endoscopic anterior scoliosis correction may contribute to rib hump recurrence after two years

Introduction. Endoscopic anterior scoliosis correction has been employed recently as a less invasive and level-sparing approach compared with open surgical techniques. We have previously demonstrated that during the two-year post-operative period, there was a mean loss of rib hump correction by 1.4 degrees. The purpose of this study was to determine whether intra- or inter-vertebral rotational deformity during the post-operative period could account for the loss of rib hump correction. Materials and Methods. Ten consecutive patients diagnosed with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis were treated with an endoscopic anterior scoliosis correction. Low-dose computed tomography scans of the instrumented segment were obtained post-operatively at 6 and 24 months following institutional ethical approval and patient consent. Three-dimensional multi-planar reconstruction software (Osirix Imaging Software, Pixmeo, Switzerland) was used to create axial slices of each vertebral level, corrected in both coronal and sagittal planes. Vertebral rotation was measured using Ho’s method for every available superior and inferior endplate at 6 and 24 months. Positive changes in rotation indicate a reduction and improvement in vertebral rotation. Intra-observer variability analysis was performed on a subgroup of images. Results. Mean change in rotation for vertebral endplates between 6 and 24 months post-operatively was -0.26˚ (range -3.5 to 4.9˚) within the fused segment and +1.26˚ (range -7.2 to 15.1˚) for the un-instrumented vertebrae above and below the fusion. Mean change in clinically measured rib hump for the 10 patients was -1.6˚ (range -3 to 0˚). The small change in rotation within the fused segment accounts for only 16.5% of the change in rib hump measured clinically whereas the change in rotation between the un-instrumented vertebrae above and below the construct accounts for 78.8%. There was no clear association between rib hump recurrence and intra- or inter-vertebral rotation in individual patients. Intra-rater variability was ± 3˚. Conclusions. Intra- and inter-vertebral rotation continues post-operatively both within the instrumented and un-instrumented segments of the immature spine. Rotation between the un-instrumented vertebrae above and below the fusion was +1.26˚, suggesting that the un-instrumented vertebrae improved and de-rotated slightly after surgery. This may play a role in rib hump recurrence, however this remains clinically insignificant.