Bayesian estimation of the dynamics of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza transmission in Queensland: A space–time SIR-based model

Background A pandemic strain of influenza A spread rapidly around the world in 2009, now referred to as pandemic (H1N1) 2009. This study aimed to examine the spatiotemporal variation in the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 associated with changes in local socio-environmental conditions from May 7–December 31, 2009, at a postal area level in Queensland, Australia. Method We used the data on laboratory-confirmed H1N1 cases to examine the spatiotemporal dynamics of transmission using a flexible Bayesian, space–time, Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) modelling approach. The model incorporated parameters describing spatiotemporal variation in H1N1 infection and local socio-environmental factors. Results The weekly transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 was negatively associated with the weekly area-mean maximum temperature at a lag of 1 week (LMXT) (posterior mean: −0.341; 95% credible interval (CI): −0.370–−0.311) and the socio-economic index for area (SEIFA) (posterior mean: −0.003; 95% CI: −0.004–−0.001), and was positively associated with the product of LMXT and the weekly area-mean vapour pressure at a lag of 1 week (LVAP) (posterior mean: 0.008; 95% CI: 0.007–0.009). There was substantial spatiotemporal variation in transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 across Queensland over the epidemic period. High random effects of estimated transmission rates were apparent in remote areas and some postal areas with higher proportion of indigenous populations and smaller overall populations. Conclusions Local SEIFA and local atmospheric conditions were associated with the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009. The more populated regions displayed consistent and synchronized epidemics with low average transmission rates. The less populated regions had high average transmission rates with more variations during the H1N1 epidemic period.

Evaluation of visual stress symptoms in Age-matched Dyslexic, Meares–Irlen syndrome (MIS) and normal adults

AIM To examine the prevalence of dyslexia and Meares–Irlen syndrome (MIS) among female students and determine their level of visual stress in comparison with normal subjects. METHODS A random sample of 450 female medical students of King Saud University Riyadh (age range, 18 - 30 years) responded to a wide range of questions designed to accomplish the aims of this study. The detailed questionnaire consisted of 54 questions with twelve questions enquiring on ocular history and demography of participants while 42 questions were on visual symptoms. Items were categorized into; critical and non-critical questions (CQ and NCQ) and were rated on four point Likert scale. Based on the responses obtained, the subjects were grouped into normal (control), dyslexic with or without MIS (Group 1) and subjects with MIS only (Group 2). Responses were analysed as averages and mean scores were calculated and compared between-groups using one way analysis of variance to evaluate total (TVSS = NCQ + CQ), critical and non-critical visual stress scores. The relationship between categorical variables such as age, handedness and condition were assessed with Chi- Square test. RESULTS The completion rate was 96.8% and majority of the respondents (92%) were normal readers, 2% dyslexic and 6% had MIS. They were age-matched. More than half of the participants had visited an eye care practitioner in the last 2yrs. About 13% were recommended eye exercises and one participant experienced pattern glare. Hand preference was not associated with any condition but Group 1 subjects (3/9, 33%) were significantly more likely to be diagnosed of lazy eye than Group 2 (2/27, 7%) and control (27/414, 5%) subjects. The mean ± SD of TVSS responses were 63 ± 14 but it was 44 ± 9 for CQ and 19 ± 5 for NCQ. Responses from all three variables were normally distributed but the CQ responses were on the average more positive (82%) in Group 2 and less positive (46%) in Group 1 than control. With NCQ, the responses were equally less positive in Group 1 and 2 than control. Group 2 subjects showed significantly higher TVSS (P = 0.002), NCQ (P = 0.006) and CQ (P = 0.008) visual stress scores than control but no difference between Group 1 and control subjects, was observed for all scores (P > 0.05, for all comparisons). CONCLUSION The prevalence of dyslexia and MIS among Saudi female students was 2 and 6%, respectively. Critical questions performed best for assessing visual stress symptoms in dyslexic and MIS subjects. Generally, students with MIS were more sensitive to visual stress than normal students but dyslexics were more likely to present with a lazy eye than MIS and normal readers.

Organisational sustainability policies and employee green behaviour: The mediating role of work climate perceptions

Organisations are increasingly introducing sustainability policies to encourage environmentally friendly behaviours. Employees' green work climate perceptions (i.e., how they perceive their organisations' and co-workers' orientations towards environmental sustainability) may constitute psychological mechanisms that link such policies with behaviour. We present findings of a study on relationships among the perceived presence of organisational sustainability policies, green work climate perceptions and employee reports of their green behaviour (EGB). We hypothesised that green work climate perceptions mediate the positive relationship between employees' perceptions of the presence of a sustainability policy and EGB. Results based on data from 168 employees supported our hypotheses. Green work climate perceptions of the organisation and of co-workers differentially mediated the effects of the perceived presence of a sustainability policy on task-related and proactive EGB. These findings extend research on the efficacy of sustainability policies by shedding new light on the psychological mechanisms that link them with EGB.

Selection, optimization, and compensation strategies: Interactive effects on daily work engagement

The theory of selective optimization with compensation (SOC) proposes that the “orchestrated” use of three distinct action regulation strategies (selection, optimization, and compensation) leads to positive employee outcomes. Previous research examined overall scores and additive models (i.e., main effects) of SOC strategies instead of interaction models in which SOC strategies mutually enhance each other's effects. Thus, a central assumption of SOC theory remains untested. In addition, most research on SOC strategies has been cross-sectional, assuming that employees' use of SOC strategies is stable over time. We conducted a quantitative diary study across nine work days (N = 77; 514 daily entries) to investigate interactive effects of daily SOC strategies on daily work engagement. Results showed that optimization and compensation, but not selection, had positive main effects on work engagement. Moreover, a significant three-way interaction effect indicated that the relationship between selection and work engagement was positive only when both optimization and compensation were high, whereas the relationship was negative when optimization was low and compensation was high. We discuss implications for future research and practice regarding the use of SOC strategies at work.

Step based physical activity guidelines for preschool-aged children

OBJECTIVE Public health organizations recommend that preschool-aged children accumulate at least 3h of physical activity (PA) daily. Objective monitoring using pedometers offers an opportunity to measure preschooler's PA and assess compliance with this recommendation. The purpose of this study was to derive step-based recommendations consistent with the 3h PA recommendation for preschool-aged children. METHOD The study sample comprised 916 preschool-aged children, aged 3 to 6years (mean age=5.0+/-0.8years). Children were recruited from kindergartens located in Portugal, between 2009 and 2013. Children wore an ActiGraph GT1M accelerometer that measured PA intensity and steps per day simultaneously over a 7-day monitoring period. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to identify the daily step count threshold associated with meeting the daily 3hour PA recommendation. RESULTS A significant correlation was observed between minutes of total PA and steps per day (r=0.76, p<0.001). The optimal step count for >/=3h of total PA was 9099 steps per day (sensitivity (90%) and specificity (66%)) with area under the ROC curve=0.86 (95% CI: 0.84 to 0.88). CONCLUSION Preschool-aged children who accumulate less than 9000 steps per day may be considered Insufficiently Active.

The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of exercise referral schemes: A systematic review and economic evaluation

- Background Exercise referral schemes (ERS) aim to identify inactive adults in the primary-care setting. The GP or health-care professional then refers the patient to a third-party service, with this service taking responsibility for prescribing and monitoring an exercise programme tailored to the needs of the individual. - Objective To assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of ERS for people with a diagnosed medical condition known to benefit from physical activity (PA). The scope of this report was broadened to consider individuals without a diagnosed condition who are sedentary. - Data sources MEDLINE; EMBASE; PsycINFO; The Cochrane Library, ISI Web of Science; SPORTDiscus and ongoing trial registries were searched (from 1990 to October 2009) and included study references were checked. - Methods Systematic reviews: the effectiveness of ERS, predictors of ERS uptake and adherence, and the cost-effectiveness of ERS; and the development of a decision-analytic economic model to assess cost-effectiveness of ERS. - Results Seven randomised controlled trials (UK, n = 5; non-UK, n = 2) met the effectiveness inclusion criteria, five comparing ERS with usual care, two compared ERS with an alternative PA intervention, and one to an ERS plus a self-determination theory (SDT) intervention. In intention-to-treat analysis, compared with usual care, there was weak evidence of an increase in the number of ERS participants who achieved a self-reported 90-150 minutes of at least moderate-intensity PA per week at 6-12 months' follow-up [pooled relative risk (RR) 1.11, 95% confidence interval 0.99 to 1.25]. There was no consistent evidence of a difference between ERS and usual care in the duration of moderate/vigorous intensity and total PA or other outcomes, for example physical fitness, serum lipids, health-related quality of life (HRQoL). There was no between-group difference in outcomes between ERS and alternative PA interventions or ERS plus a SDT intervention. None of the included trials separately reported outcomes in individuals with medical diagnoses. Fourteen observational studies and five randomised controlled trials provided a numerical assessment of ERS uptake and adherence (UK, n = 16; non-UK, n = 3). Women and older people were more likely to take up ERS but women, when compared with men, were less likely to adhere. The four previous economic evaluations identified suggest ERS to be a cost-effective intervention. Indicative incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) estimates for ERS for various scenarios were based on a de novo model-based economic evaluation. Compared with usual care, the mean incremental cost for ERS was £169 and the mean incremental QALY was 0.008, with the base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio at £20,876 per QALY in sedentary people without a medical condition and a cost per QALY of £14,618 in sedentary obese individuals, £12,834 in sedentary hypertensive patients, and £8414 for sedentary individuals with depression. Estimates of cost-effectiveness were highly sensitive to plausible variations in the RR for change in PA and cost of ERS. - Limitations We found very limited evidence of the effectiveness of ERS. The estimates of the cost-effectiveness of ERS are based on a simple analytical framework. The economic evaluation reports small differences in costs and effects, and findings highlight the wide range of uncertainty associated with the estimates of effectiveness and the impact of effectiveness on HRQoL. No data were identified as part of the effectiveness review to allow for adjustment of the effect of ERS in different populations. - Conclusions There remains considerable uncertainty as to the effectiveness of ERS for increasing activity, fitness or health indicators or whether they are an efficient use of resources in sedentary people without a medical diagnosis. We failed to identify any trial-based evidence of the effectiveness of ERS in those with a medical diagnosis. Future work should include randomised controlled trials assessing the cinical effectiveness and cost-effectivenesss of ERS in disease groups that may benefit from PA. - Funding The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

The cost-effectiveness of exercise referral schemes

Background Exercise referral schemes (ERS) aim to identify inactive adults in the primary care setting. The primary care professional refers the patient to a third party service, with this service taking responsibility for prescribing and monitoring an exercise programme tailored to the needs of the patient. This paper examines the cost-effectiveness of ERS in promoting physical activity compared with usual care in primary care setting. Methods A decision analytic model was developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of ERS from a UK NHS perspective. The costs and outcomes of ERS were modelled over the patient's lifetime. Data were derived from a systematic review of the literature on the clinical and cost-effectiveness of ERS, and on parameter inputs in the modelling framework. Outcomes were expressed as incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses investigated the impact of varying ERS cost and effectiveness assumptions. Sub-group analyses explored the cost-effectiveness of ERS in sedentary people with an underlying condition. Results Compared with usual care, the mean incremental lifetime cost per patient for ERS was £169 and the mean incremental QALY was 0.008, generating a base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for ERS at £20,876 per QALY in sedentary individuals without a diagnosed medical condition. There was a 51% probability that ERS was cost-effective at £20,000 per QALY and 88% probability that ERS was cost-effective at £30,000 per QALY. In sub-group analyses, cost per QALY for ERS in sedentary obese individuals was £14,618, and in sedentary hypertensives and sedentary individuals with depression the estimated cost per QALY was £12,834 and £8,414 respectively. Incremental lifetime costs and benefits associated with ERS were small, reflecting the preventative public health context of the intervention, with this resulting in estimates of cost-effectiveness that are sensitive to variations in the relative risk of becoming physically active and cost of ERS. Conclusions ERS is associated with modest increase in lifetime costs and benefits. The cost-effectiveness of ERS is highly sensitive to small changes in the effectiveness and cost of ERS and is subject to some significant uncertainty mainly due to limitations in the clinical effectiveness evidence base.

Location and scale mixtures of Gaussians with flexible tail behaviour: Properties, inference and application to multivariate clustering

The family of location and scale mixtures of Gaussians has the ability to generate a number of flexible distributional forms. The family nests as particular cases several important asymmetric distributions like the Generalized Hyperbolic distribution. The Generalized Hyperbolic distribution in turn nests many other well known distributions such as the Normal Inverse Gaussian. In a multivariate setting, an extension of the standard location and scale mixture concept is proposed into a so called multiple scaled framework which has the advantage of allowing different tail and skewness behaviours in each dimension with arbitrary correlation between dimensions. Estimation of the parameters is provided via an EM algorithm and extended to cover the case of mixtures of such multiple scaled distributions for application to clustering. Assessments on simulated and real data confirm the gain in degrees of freedom and flexibility in modelling data of varying tail behaviour and directional shape.

Morphological changes in the conjunctiva, episclera and sclera following short-term miniscleral contact lens wear in rigid lens neophytes

PURPOSE To quantify the influence of short-term wear of miniscleral contact lenses on the morphology of the corneo-scleral limbus, the conjunctiva, episclera and sclera. METHODS OCT images of the anterior eye were captured before, immediately following 3h of wear and then 3h after removal of a miniscleral contact lens for 10 young (27±5 years) healthy participants (neophyte rigid lens wearers). The region of analysis encompassed 1mm anterior, to 3.5mm posterior to the scleral spur. Natural diurnal variations in thickness were measured on a separate day and compensated for in subsequent analyses. RESULTS Following 3h of lens wear, statistically significant tissue thinning was observed across all quadrants, with a mean decrease in thickness of -24.1±3.6μm (p<0.001), which diminished, but did not return to baseline 3h after lens removal (-16.9±1.9μm, p<0.001). The largest tissue compression was observed in the superior quadrant (-49.9±8.5μm, p<0.01) and in the annular zone 1.5mm from the scleral spur (-48.2±5.7μm), corresponding to the approximate edge of the lens landing zone. Compression of the conjunctiva/episclera accounted for about 70% of the changes. CONCLUSIONS Optimal fitting miniscleral contact lenses worn for three hours resulted in significant tissue compression in young healthy eyes, with the greatest thinning observed superiorly, potentially due to the additional force of the eyelid, with a partial recovery of compression 3h after lens removal. Most of the morphological changes occur in the conjunctiva/episclera layers.

Psychometric properties of the DCDDaily-Q: A new parental questionnaire on children's performance in activities of daily living

Difficulties in the performance of activities of daily living (ADL) are a key feature of developmental coordination disorder (DCD). The DCDDaily-Q was developed to address children's motor performance in a comprehensive range ADL. The aim of this study was to investigate the psychometric properties of this parental questionnaire. Parents of 218 five to eight year-old children (DCD group: N=25; reference group: N=193) completed the research version of the new DCDDaily-Q and the Movement Assessment Battery for Children-2 (MABC2) Checklist and Developmental Coordination Disorder Questionnaire (DCDQ). Children were assessed with the MABC2 and DCDDaily. Item reduction analyses were performed and reliability (internal consistency and factor structure) and concurrent, discriminant, and incremental validity of the DCDDaily-Q were investigated. The final version of the DCDDaily-Q comprises 23 items that cover three underlying factors and shows good internal consistency (Cronbach's α>.80). Moderate correlations were found between the DCDDaily-Q and the other instruments used (p<.001 for the reference group; p>.05 for the DCD group). Discriminant validity of the DCDDaily-Q was good for DCDDaily-Q total scores (p<.001) and all 23 item scores (p<.01), indicating poorer performance in the DCD group. Sensitivity (88%) and specificity (92%) were good. The DCDDaily-Q better predicted DCD than currently used questionnaires (R2=.88). In conclusion, the DCDDaily-Q is a valid and reliable questionnaire to address children's ADL performance.

Starch composites with aconitic acid

The aim of this project is to examine the effectiveness of using aconitic acid (AcA), a tricarboxylic acid which contains a carbon/carbon double bond (C=C), to enhance the properties of starch-based films. Starch/glycerol cast films were prepared with 0, 2, 5, 10 and 15 wt% AcA (starch wt% basis) and the properties analysed. It was shown that AcA acted as both a cross-linking agent and also a strong plasticising agent. The 5 wt% AcA derived starch films were the most effectively cross-linked having the lowest solubility (28 wt%) and decreased swelling coefficient (35 vol.%) by approximately 3 times and 2.4 times respectively compared to the control film submerged in water (23 °C). There was also a significant increase in the film elongation at break by approximately 35 times (compared to the control) with the addition of 15 wt% AcA, emphasising the plasticising effect of AcA. However, generally there was a reduced tensile strength, softening of the film, and reduced thermal stability with increased amounts of AcA.

Distinct subpopulations of gamma delta T cells are present in normal and tumor-bearing human liver

Gamma delta T cells are thought to mediate immune responses at epithelial surfaces. We have quantified and characterized hepatic and peripheral blood gamma delta T cells from 11 normal and 13 unresolved tumor-bearing human liver specimens. gamma delta T cells are enriched in normal liver (6.6% of T cells) relative to matched blood (0.9%; P = 0.008). The majority express CD4(-)CD8(-) phenotypes and many express CD56 and/or CD161. In vitro, hepatic gamma delta T cells can be induced to kill tumor cell lines and release interferon-gamma, tumor necrosis factor-alpha, interleukin-2 and interleukin-4. Analysis of V gamma and V delta chain usage indicated that V delta 3(+) cells are expanded in normal livers (21.2% of gamma delta T cells) compared to blood (0.5%; P = 0.001). Tumor-bearing livers had significant expansions and depletions of gamma delta T cell subsets but normal cytolytic activity. This study identifies novel populations of liver T cells that may play a role in immunity against tumors.

Revocation and update of trust in autonomous delay tolerant networks

A Delay Tolerant Network (DTN) is a dynamic, fragmented, and ephemeral network formed by a large number of highly mobile nodes. DTNs are ephemeral networks with highly mobile autonomous nodes. This requires distributed and self-organised approaches to trust management. Revocation and replacement of security credentials under adversarial influence by preserving the trust on the entity is still an open problem. Existing methods are mostly limited to detection and removal of malicious nodes. This paper makes use of the mobility property to provide a distributed, self-organising, and scalable revocation and replacement scheme. The proposed scheme effectively utilises the Leverage of Common Friends (LCF) trust system concepts to revoke compromised security credentials, replace them with new ones, whilst preserving the trust on them. The level of achieved entity confidence is thereby preserved. Security and performance of the proposed scheme is evaluated using an experimental data set in comparison with other schemes based around the LCF concept. Our extensive experimental results show that the proposed scheme distributes replacement credentials up to 35% faster and spreads spoofed credentials of strong collaborating adversaries up to 50% slower without causing any significant increase on the communication and storage overheads, when compared to other LCF based schemes.

Data-aware task scheduling for all-to-all comparison problems in heterogeneous distributed systems

Solving large-scale all-to-all comparison problems using distributed computing is increasingly significant for various applications. Previous efforts to implement distributed all-to-all comparison frameworks have treated the two phases of data distribution and comparison task scheduling separately. This leads to high storage demands as well as poor data locality for the comparison tasks, thus creating a need to redistribute the data at runtime. Furthermore, most previous methods have been developed for homogeneous computing environments, so their overall performance is degraded even further when they are used in heterogeneous distributed systems. To tackle these challenges, this paper presents a data-aware task scheduling approach for solving all-to-all comparison problems in heterogeneous distributed systems. The approach formulates the requirements for data distribution and comparison task scheduling simultaneously as a constrained optimization problem. Then, metaheuristic data pre-scheduling and dynamic task scheduling strategies are developed along with an algorithmic implementation to solve the problem. The approach provides perfect data locality for all comparison tasks, avoiding rearrangement of data at runtime. It achieves load balancing among heterogeneous computing nodes, thus enhancing the overall computation time. It also reduces data storage requirements across the network. The effectiveness of the approach is demonstrated through experimental studies.

HER2 positive gastric and gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma; An Irish tertiary center experience

Background: Trastuzumab has been approved for patients with human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) over expression and gene amplification metastatic gastric cancer. Here we present the prevalence of HER2 positive gastric cancer in an Irish population, the use of Trastuzumab in first line and beyond progression. Methods: The study was conducted in St James's Hospital, Dublin. A retrospective analysis of the date of patients with HER2 positive gastric cancer over a period of 3 years was carried out. Her2 positive was defined as immunohistochemistry (IHC) score of +3, of IHC score of +2 and increased gene copy number by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH). Overall survival was calculated from the day of initiation of treatment with Trastuzumab until death. Results: During the study period 140 patients with gastric and gastro-esophageal junction adenocarcinoma were treated. Out of those, 30 (21.4%) had HER2 positive disease. Among HER2 positive disease patients 18 (12.8%) were treated with first line Trastuzumab containing regimen with a median overall survival of 13 months. Nine (50%) developed progressive disease while on Trastuzumab and of those, 4 (22.2%) patients continued on Trastuzumab beyond progression, two (11.1%) of whom achieved stable disease and a prolonged survival. Conclusion: HER2 positivity rate in an Irish population with advanced gastric and gastro-esophageal junction adenocarcinoma is 21.4%. Treatment with Trastuzumab in the first line in combination with chemotherapy is a reasonable approach. Continuation of Trastuzumab beyond progression is a feasible strategy that requires further exploration.