An experimental analysis of information acquisition in prediction markets

We study which factors in terms of trading environment and trader characteristics determine individual information acquisition in experimental asset markets. Traders with larger endowments, existing inconclusive information, lower risk aversion, and less experience in financial markets tend to acquire more information. Overall, we find that traders overacquire information, so that informed traders on average obtain negative profits net of information costs. Information acquisition and the associated losses do not diminish over time. This overacquisition phenomenon is inconsistent with predictions of rational expectations equilibrium, and we argue it resembles the overdissipation results from the contest literature. We find that more acquired information in the market leads to smaller differences between fundamental asset values and prices. Thus, the overacquisition phenomenon is a novel explanation for the high forecasting accuracy of prediction markets.

Combining propensity and influence models for product adoption prediction

This paper studies the problem of selecting users in an online social network for targeted advertising so as to maximize the adoption of a given product. In previous work, two families of models have been considered to address this problem: direct targeting and network-based targeting. The former approach targets users with the highest propensity to adopt the product, while the latter approach targets users with the highest influence potential – that is users whose adoption is most likely to be followed by subsequent adoptions by peers. This paper proposes a hybrid approach that combines a notion of propensity and a notion of influence into a single utility function. We show that targeting a fixed number of high-utility users results in more adoptions than targeting either highly influential users or users with high propensity.

Seasonal variations in the body composition of lightweight rowers

OBJECTIVE To monitor the seasonal body composition alterations in 18 lightweight rowers (six females, 12 males) across a rowing season incorporating preseason, early competition, competition, and postseason. METHODS Subject age was 23.1 (SD 4.5) years, height 170.8 (5.6) cm (female, 23.5 (3.5) years, 180.5 (2.7) cm (male). Body weight, fat mass, and fat-free mass (FFM) were assessed using dual energy x ray absorptiometry (DXA-L Lunar) and skinfold techniques. Weight control techniques were documented before major regattas by a questionnaire. RESULTS Female body weight was reduced from 61.3 (2.9) to 57.0 (1.1) kg (5.9%), while male body weight was reduced from 75.6 (3.1) to 69.8 (1.6) kg (7.8%) preseason to competition season respectively. These body weight reductions were mirrored by a significant reduction in fat mass as indicated by the sum of skinfolds [female seven sites: 80.9 (8.1) to 68.2 (11.8) mm; male eight sites: 54.2 (8.7) to 41.8 (4.8) mm], percentage body fat [female 22.1 (1.0) to 19.7 (2.4)%; male 10.0 (0.9) to 7.8 (0.8)%], and total fat [female 12.5 (5.2) to 10.9 (1.4) kg; male 7.3 (1.9) to 5.6 (1.8) kg] (DXA). In contrast, no changes were observed in FFM despite a season of intensive rowing training. Seasonal body weight control was achieved through reduced total energy and dietary fat intakes. Acute body weight reductions were achieved by exercise in 73.3% of participants, food restriction in 71.4%, and fluid restrictions in 62.9%. CONCLUSIONS Seasonal body weight alterations in lightweight rowers are in response to a significant reduction in fat mass. However, the weight restrictions appear to be limiting an increase in FFM which could be beneficial to rowing performance.

Influence of organic amendments on greenhouse gas emissions and N use efficiency in sub-tropical cropping systems

This thesis investigated the impact of organic sources of nutrients on greenhouse gas emissions (carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and methane), nitrogen use efficiency and biomass production in subtropical cropping soils. The study was conducted in two main soil types in subtropical ecosystems, sandy loam soil and clay soil, with a variety of organic materials from agro-industrial residues and crop residues. It is important for recycling of agro-industrial residues and agricultural residues and the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and nitrogen use efficiency.

Evaluate traffic noise level based on traffic microsimulation combined with a refined classic noise prediction method

In this paper, a refined classic noise prediction method based on the VISSIM and FHWA noise prediction model is formulated to analyze the sound level contributed by traffic on the Nanjing Lukou airport connecting freeway before and after widening. The aim of this research is to (i) assess the traffic noise impact on the Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics (NUAA) campus before and after freeway widening, (ii) compare the prediction results with field data to test the accuracy of this method, (iii) analyze the relationship between traffic characteristics and sound level. The results indicate that the mean difference between model predictions and field measurements is acceptable. The traffic composition impact study indicates that buses (including mid-sized trucks) and heavy goods vehicles contribute a significant proportion of total noise power despite their low traffic volume. In addition, speed analysis offers an explanation for the minor differences in noise level across time periods. Future work will aim at reducing model error, by focusing on noise barrier analysis using the FEM/BEM method and modifying the vehicle noise emission equation by conducting field experimentation.

Feasibility of a stepped wedge cluster RCT and concurrent observational sub-study to evaluate the effects of modified ward night lighting on inpatient fall rates and sleep quality: A protocol for a pilot trial

Background: Falls among hospitalised patients impose a considerable burden on health systems globally and prevention is a priority. Some patient-level interventions have been effective in reducing falls, but others have not. An alternative and promising approach to reducing inpatient falls is through the modification of the hospital physical environment and the night lighting of hospital wards is a leading candidate for investigation. In this pilot trial, we will determine the feasibility of conducting a main trial to evaluate the effects of modified night lighting on inpatient ward level fall rates. We will test also the feasibility of collecting novel forms of patient level data through a concurrent observational sub-study. Methods/design: A stepped wedge, cluster randomised controlled trial will be conducted in six inpatient wards over 14 months in a metropolitan teaching hospital in Brisbane (Australia). The intervention will consist of supplementary night lighting installed across all patient rooms within study wards. The planned placement of luminaires, configurations and spectral characteristics are based on prior published research and pre-trial testing and modification. We will collect data on rates of falls on study wards (falls per 1000 patient days), the proportion of patients who fall once or more, and average length of stay. We will recruit two patients per ward per month to a concurrent observational sub-study aimed at understanding potential impacts on a range of patient sleep and mobility behaviour. The effect on the environment will be monitored with sensors to detect variation in light levels and night-time room activity. We will also collect data on possible patient-level confounders including demographics, pre-admission sleep quality, reported vision, hearing impairment and functional status. Discussion: This pragmatic pilot trial will assess the feasibility of conducting a main trial to investigate the effects of modified night lighting on inpatient fall rates using several new methods previously untested in the context of environmental modifications and patient safety. Pilot data collected through both parts of the trial will be utilised to inform sample size calculations, trial design and final data collection methods for a subsequent main trial.

Prediction of masonry compressive behaviour using a damage mechanics inspired modelling method

Masonry under compression is affected by the properties of its constituents and their interfaces. In spite of extensive investigations of the behaviour of masonry under compression, the information in the literature cannot be regarded as comprehensive due to ongoing inventions of new generation products – for example, polymer modified thin layer mortared masonry and drystack masonry. As comprehensive experimental studies are very expensive, an analytical model inspired by damage mechanics is developed and applied to the prediction of the compressive behaviour of masonry in this paper. The model incorporates a parabolic progressively softening stress-strain curve for the units and a progressively stiffening stress-strain curve until a threshold strain for the combined mortar and the unit-mortar interfaces is reached. The model simulates the mutual constraints imposed by each of these constituents through their respective tensile and compressive behaviour and volumetric changes. The advantage of the model is that it requires only the properties of the constituents and considers masonry as a continuum and computes the average properties of the composite masonry prisms/wallettes; it does not require discretisation of prism or wallette similar to the finite element methods. The capability of the model in capturing the phenomenological behaviour of masonry with appropriate elastic response, stiffness degradation and post peak softening is presented through numerical examples. The fitting of the experimental data to the model parameters is demonstrated through calibration of some selected test data on units and mortar from the literature; the calibrated model is shown to predict the responses of the experimentally determined masonry built using the corresponding units and mortar quite well. Through a series of sensitivity studies, the model is also shown to predict the masonry strength appropriately for changes to the properties of the units and mortar, the mortar joint thickness and the ratio of the height of unit to mortar joint thickness. The unit strength is shown to affect the masonry strength significantly. Although the mortar strength has only a marginal effect, reduction in mortar joint thickness is shown to have a profound effect on the masonry strength. The results obtained from the model are compared with the various provisions in the Australian Masonry Structures Standard AS3700 (2011) and Eurocode 6.

Investigating variation in bus ridership rates within localised areas of a sub-tropical city

This thesis makes a significant contribution to knowledge and understanding of 'Human Travel Behaviour' in relation to transportation research. It holds some important merits that have not been proposed before. It develops a new, comprehensive and meaningful relationship that includes bus transit ridership change due to weather variables, seasonality and transit quality of service within a single daily ridership rate estimation model. The research incorporated both temporal and spatial influences on ridership within a modelling structure, named as the Nested Model Structure. It provides a complete picture of ridership variation across the sub-tropical city of Brisbane, Australia.

Computational methods for the prediction of the structure and interactions of coiled-coil peptides

The past several years have seen significant advances in the development of computational methods for the prediction of the structure and interactions of coiled-coil peptides. These methods are generally based on pairwise correlations of amino acids, helical propensity, thermal melts and the energetics of sidechain interactions, as well as statistical patterns based on Hidden Markov Model (HMM) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) techniques. These methods are complemented by a number of public databases that contain sequences, motifs, domains and other details of coiled-coil structures identified by various algorithms. Some of these computational methods have been developed to make predictions of coiled-coil structure on the basis of sequence information; however, structural predictions of the oligomerisation state of these peptides still remains largely an open question due to the dynamic behaviour of these molecules. This review focuses on existing in silico methods for the prediction of coiled-coil peptides of functional importance using sequence and/or three-dimensional structural data.

Prediction of heparin binding sites in bone morphogenetic proteins (BMPs)

Heparin is a glycosaminoglycan known to bind bone morphogenetic proteins (BMPs) and the growth and differentiation factors (GDFs) and has strong and variable effects on BMP osteogenic activity. In this paper we report our predictions of the likely heparin binding sites for BMP-2 and 14. The N-terminal sequences upstream of TGF-β-type cysteine-knot domains in BMP-2, 7 and 14 contain the basic residues arginine and lysine, which are key components of the heparin/HS-binding sites, with these residues being highly non-conserved. Importantly, evolutionary conserved surfaces on the beta sheets are required for interactions with receptors and antagonists. Furthermore, BMP-2 has electropositive surfaces on two sides compared to BMP-7 and BMP-14. Molecular docking simulations suggest the presence of high and low affinity binding sites in dimeric BMP-2. Histidines were found to play a role in the interactions of BMP-2 with heparin; however, a pKa analysis suggests that histidines are likely not protonated. This is indicative that interactions of BMP-2 with heparin do not require acidic pH. Taken together, non-conserved amino acid residues in the N-terminus and residues protruding from the beta sheet (not overlapping with the receptor binding sites and the dimeric interface) and not C-terminal are found to be important for heparin–BMP interactions.

Denitrification losses from an intensively managed sub-tropical pasture: Impact of soil moisture on the partitioning of N2 and N2O emissions

Intensively managed pastures in subtropical Australia under dairy production are nitrogen (N) loaded agro-ecosystems, with an increased pool of N available for denitrification. The magnitude of denitrification losses and N2:N2O partitioning in these agro-ecosystems is largely unknown, representing a major uncertainty when estimating total N loss and replacement. This study investigated the influence of different soil moisture contents on N2 and N2O emissions from a subtropical dairy pasture in Queensland, Australia. Intact soil cores were incubated over 15 days at 80% and 100% water-filled pore space (WFPS), after the application of 15N labelled nitrate, equivalent to 50 kg N ha−1. This setup enabled the direct quantification of N2 and N2O emissions following fertilisation using the 15N gas flux method. The main product of denitrification in both treatments was N2. N2 emissions exceeded N2O emissions by a factor of 8 ± 1 at 80% WFPS and a factor of 17 ± 2 at 100% WFPS. The total amount of N-N2 lost over the incubation period was 21.27 kg ± 2.10 N2-N ha−1 at 80% WFPS and 25.26 kg ± 2.79 kg ha−1 at 100% WFPS respectively. N2 emissions remained high at 100% WFPS, while related N2O emissions decreased. At 80% WFPS, N2 emissions increased constantly over time while N2O fluxes declined. Consequently, N2/(N2 + N2O) product ratios increased over the incubation period in both treatments. N2/(N2 + N2O) product ratios responded significantly to soil moisture, confirming WFPS as a key driver of denitrification. The substantial amount of fertiliser lost as N2 reveals the agronomic significance of denitrification as a major pathway of N loss for sub-tropical pastures at high WFPS and may explain the low fertiliser N use efficiency observed for these agro-ecosystems.

Non-linear response of soil N2O emissions to nitrogen fertiliser in a cotton-fallow rotation in sub-tropical Australia

Nitrogen fertiliser is a major source of atmospheric N2O and over recent years there is growing evidence for a non-linear, exponential relationship between N fertiliser application rate and N2O emissions. However, there is still high uncertainty around the relationship of N fertiliser rate and N2O emissions for many cropping systems. We conducted year-round measurements of N2O emission and lint yield in four N rate treatments (0, 90, 180 and 270 kg N ha-1) in a cotton-fallow rotation on a black vertosol in Australia. We observed a nonlinear exponential response of N2O emissions to increasing N fertiliser rates with cumulative annual N2O emissions of 0.55 kg N ha-1, 0.67kg N ha-1, 1.07 kg N ha-1 and 1.89 kg N ha-1 for the four respective N fertiliser rates while no N response to yield occurred above 180N. The N fertiliser induced annual N2O EF factors increased from 0.13% to 0.29% and 0.50% for the 90N, 180N and 270N treatments respectively, significantly lower than the IPCC Tier 1 default value (1.0 %). This non-linear response suggests that an exponential N2O emissions model may be more appropriate for use in estimating emission of N2O from soils cultivated to cotton in Australia. It also demonstrates that improved agricultural N management practices can be adopted in cotton to substantially reduce N2O emissions without affecting yield potential.

Prediction of individual genetic risk to prostate cancer using a polygenic score

BACKGROUND Polygenic risk scores comprising established susceptibility variants have shown to be informative classifiers for several complex diseases including prostate cancer. For prostate cancer it is unknown if inclusion of genetic markers that have so far not been associated with prostate cancer risk at a genome-wide significant level will improve disease prediction. METHODS We built polygenic risk scores in a large training set comprising over 25,000 individuals. Initially 65 established prostate cancer susceptibility variants were selected. After LD pruning additional variants were prioritized based on their association with prostate cancer. Six-fold cross validation was performed to assess genetic risk scores and optimize the number of additional variants to be included. The final model was evaluated in an independent study population including 1,370 cases and 1,239 controls. RESULTS The polygenic risk score with 65 established susceptibility variants provided an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.67. Adding an additional 68 novel variants significantly increased the AUC to 0.68 (P = 0.0012) and the net reclassification index with 0.21 (P = 8.5E-08). All novel variants were located in genomic regions established as associated with prostate cancer risk. CONCLUSIONS Inclusion of additional genetic variants from established prostate cancer susceptibility regions improves disease prediction. Prostate 75:1467–1474, 2015. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Observation of sea-salt fraction in sub-100 nm diameter particles at Cape Grim

Volatility-hygroscopicity tandem differential mobility analyzer measurements were used to infer the composition of sub-100 nm diameter Southern Ocean marine aerosols at Cape Grim in November and December 2007. This study focuses on a short-lived high sea spray aerosol (SSA) event on 7–8 December with two externally mixed modes in the Hygroscopic Growth Factor (HGF) distributions (90% relative humidity (RH)), one at HGF > 2 and another at HGF~1.5. The particles with HGF > 2 displayed a deliquescent transition at 73–75% RH and were nonvolatile up to 280°C, which identified them as SSA particles with a large inorganic sea-salt fraction. SSA HGFs were 3–13% below those for pure sea-salt particles, indicating an organic volume fraction (OVF) of up to 11–46%. Observed high inorganic fractions in sub-100 nm SSA is contrary to similar, earlier studies. HGFs increased with decreasing particle diameter over the range 16–97 nm, suggesting a decreased OVF, again contrary to earlier studies. SSA comprised up to 69% of the sub-100 nm particle number, corresponding to concentrations of 110–290 cm−3. Air mass back trajectories indicate that SSA particles were produced 1500 km, 20–40 h upwind of Cape Grim. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and X-ray spectrometry measurements of sub-100 nm aerosols collected from the same location, and at the same time, displayed a distinct lack of sea salt. Results herein highlight the potential for biases in TEM analysis of the chemical composition of marine aerosols.

Prevalence, codetection and seasonal distribution of upper airway viruses and bacteria in children with acute respiratory illnesses with cough as a symptom

Most studies exploring the role of upper airway viruses and bacteria in paediatric acute respiratory infections (ARI) focus on specific clinicaldiagnoses and/or do not account for virus–bacteria interactions. We aimed to describe the frequency and predictors of virus and bacteria codetection in children with ARI and cough, irrespective of clinical diagnosis. Bilateral nasal swabs, demographic, clinical and risk factor data were collected at enrollment in children aged <15 years presenting to an emergency department with an ARI and where cough was a symptom. Swabs were tested by polymerase chain reaction for 17 respiratory viruses and seven respiratory bacteria. Logistic regression was used to investigate associations between child characteristics and codetection of the organisms of interest. Between December 2011 and August 2014, swabs were collected from 817 (93.3%) of 876 enrolled children, median age 27.7 months (interquartile range13.9–60.3 months). Overall, 740 (90.6%) of 817 specimens were positive for any organism. Both viruses and bacteria were detected in 423 specimens (51.8%). Factors associated with codetection were age (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for age <12 months = 4.9, 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.0, 7.9; age 12 to <24 months = 6.0, 95% CI 3.7, 9.8; age 24 to <60 months = 2.4, 95% CI 1.5, 3.9), male gender (aOR 1.46; 95% CI 1.1, 2.0), child care attendance (aOR 2.0; 95% CI 1.4, 2.8) and winter enrollment (aOR 2.0; 95% CI 1.3, 3.0). Haemophilus influenzae dominated the virus–bacteria pairs. Virus–H. influenzae interactions in ARI should be investigated further, especially as the contribution of nontypeable H. influenzae to acute and chronic respiratory diseases is being increasingly recognized.