Making the most of spatial information in health: A tutorial in Bayesian disease mapping for areal data

Disease maps are effective tools for explaining and predicting patterns of disease outcomes across geographical space, identifying areas of potentially elevated risk, and formulating and validating aetiological hypotheses for a disease. Bayesian models have become a standard approach to disease mapping in recent decades. This article aims to provide a basic understanding of the key concepts involved in Bayesian disease mapping methods for areal data. It is anticipated that this will help in interpretation of published maps, and provide a useful starting point for anyone interested in running disease mapping methods for areal data. The article provides detailed motivation and descriptions on disease mapping methods by explaining the concepts, defining the technical terms, and illustrating the utility of disease mapping for epidemiological research by demonstrating various ways of visualising model outputs using a case study. The target audience includes spatial scientists in health and other fields, policy or decision makers, health geographers, spatial analysts, public health professionals, and epidemiologists.

The nature and extent of use of Twitter for financial reporting by ASX listed companies: An exploratory study

We investigate the extent and nature of use of use of twitter for financial reporting by ASX listed companies. We consider 199 financial information related tweets from 14 ASX listed companies’ Twitter accounts. A thematic analysis of these tweets shows ‘Earnings’ and ‘Operational Performance’ are the most discussed financial reporting themes. Further, a comparison across industry sectors reveals that listed companies from varies industries show different usage patterns of financial reporting on Twitter. The examination of tweet sentiments also indicates a reporting bias within these tweets, as listed companies are more willing to disclose positive financial reporting tweets.

Optimal adaptive sequential spatial sampling of soil using pair-copulas

A spatial sampling design that uses pair-copulas is presented that aims to reduce prediction uncertainty by selecting additional sampling locations based on both the spatial configuration of existing locations and the values of the observations at those locations. The novelty of the approach arises in the use of pair-copulas to estimate uncertainty at unsampled locations. Spatial pair-copulas are able to more accurately capture spatial dependence compared to other types of spatial copula models. Additionally, unlike traditional kriging variance, uncertainty estimates from the pair-copula account for influence from measurement values and not just the configuration of observations. This feature is beneficial, for example, for more accurate identification of soil contamination zones where high contamination measurements are located near measurements of varying contamination. The proposed design methodology is applied to a soil contamination example from the Swiss Jura region. A partial redesign of the original sampling configuration demonstrates the potential of the proposed methodology.

Valence and spatial explanations for voting in the 2013 Australian election

This paper examines the 2013 Australian federal election to test two competing models of vote choice: spatial politics and valence issues. Using data from the 2013 Australian Election Study, the analysis finds that spatial politics (measured by party identification and self-placement on the left-right spectrum) and valence issues both have significant effects on vote choice. However, spatial measures are more important than valence issues in explaining vote choice, in contrast with recent studies from Britain, Canada and the United States. Explanations for these differences are speculative, but may relate to Australia’s stable party and electoral system, including compulsory voting and the frequency of elections. The consequently high information burden faced by Australian voters may lead to a greater reliance on spatial heuristics than is found elsewhere.

Recapitulation in generating spatial layouts: Representations of embryogenesis in evolutionary design modelling

The noted 19th century biologist, Ernst Haeckel, put forward the idea that the growth (ontogenesis) of an organism recapitulated the history of its evolutionary development. While this idea is defunct within biology, the idea has been promoted in areas such as education (the idea of an education being the repetition of the civilizations before). In the research presented in this paper, recapitulation is used as a metaphor within computer-aided design as a way of grouping together different generations of spatial layouts. In most CAD programs, a spatial layout is represented as a series of objects (lines, or boundary representations) that stand in as walls. The relationships between spaces are not usually explicitly stated. A representation using Lindenmayer Systems (originally designed for the purpose of modelling plant morphology) is put forward as a way of representing the morphology of a spatial layout. The aim of this research is not just to describe an individual layout, but to find representations that link together lineages of development. This representation can be used in generative design as a way of creating more meaningful layouts which have particular characteristics. The use of genetic operators (mutation and crossover) is also considered, making this representation suitable for use with genetic algorithms.

Quarantine and surveillance strategies for plant pathogen detection and control

Incursions of plant pests and diseases pose serious threats to food security, agricultural productivity and the natural environment. One of the challenges in confidently delimiting and eradicating incursions is how to choose from an arsenal of surveillance and quarantine approaches in order to best control multiple dispersal pathways. Anthropogenic spread (propagules carried on humans or transported on produce or equipment) can be controlled with quarantine measures, which in turn can vary in intensity. In contrast, environmental spread processes are more difficult to control, but often have a temporal signal (e.g. seasonality) which can introduce both challenges and opportunities for surveillance and control. This leads to complex decisions regarding when, where and how to search. Recent modelling investigations of surveillance performance have optimised the output of simulation models, and found that a risk-weighted randomised search can perform close to optimally. However, exactly how quarantine and surveillance strategies should change to reflect different dispersal modes remains largely unaddressed. Here we develop a spatial simulation model of a plant fungal-pathogen incursion into an agricultural region, and its subsequent surveillance and control. We include structural differences in dispersal via the interplay of biological, environmental and anthropogenic connectivity between host sites (farms). Our objective was to gain broad insights into the relative roles played by different spread modes in propagating an invasion, and how incorporating knowledge of these spread risks may improve approaches to quarantine restrictions and surveillance. We find that broad heuristic rules for quarantine restrictions fail to contain the pathogen due to residual connectivity between sites, but surveillance measures enable early detection and successfully lead to suppression of the pathogen in all farms. Alternative surveillance strategies attain similar levels of performance by incorporating environmental or anthropogenic dispersal risk in the prioritisation of sites. Our model provides the basis to develop essential insights into the effectiveness of different surveillance and quarantine decisions for fungal pathogen control. Parameterised for authentic settings it will aid our understanding of how the extent and resolution of interventions should suitably reflect the spatial structure of dispersal processes.

Development and evaluation of a spatial decision support system for malaria elimination in Bhutan

Background: Bhutan has reduced its malaria incidence significantly in the last 5 years, and is aiming for malaria elimination by 2016. To assist with the management of the Bhutanese malaria elimination programme a spatial decision support system (SDSS) was developed. The current study aims to describe SDSS development and evaluate SDSS utility and acceptability through informant interviews. Methods: The SDSS was developed based on the open-source Quantum geographical information system (QGIS) and piloted to support the distribution of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) in the two sub-districts of Samdrup Jongkhar District. It was subsequently used to support reactive case detection (RACD) in the two sub-districts of Samdrup Jongkhar and two additional sub-districts in Sarpang District. Interviews were conducted to ascertain perceptions on utility and acceptability of 11 informants using the SDSS, including programme and district managers, and field workers. Results: A total of 1502 households with a population of 7165 were enumerated in the four sub-districts, and a total of 3491 LLINs were distributed with one LLIN per 1.7 persons. A total of 279 households representing 728 residents were involved with RACD. Informants considered that the SDSS was an improvement on previous methods for organizing LLIN distribution, IRS and RACD, and could be easily integrated into routine malaria and other vector-borne disease surveillance systems. Informants identified some challenges at the programme and field level, including the need for more skilled personnel to manage the SDSS, and more training to improve the effectiveness of SDSS implementation and use of hardware. Conclusions: The SDSS was well accepted and informants expected its use to be extended to other malaria reporting districts and other vector-borne diseases. Challenges associated with efficient SDSS use included adequate skills and knowledge, access to training and support, and availability of hardware including computers and global positioning system receivers.

Workers are doing it for themselves? Local labor solidarity in precarious times

Historically, organized labor has played a fundamental role in guaranteeing basic rights and privileges for screen media workers and defending union and guild members (however unevenly) from egregious abuses of power. Yet, despite the recent turn to labor in media and cultural studies, organized labor today has received only scant attention, even less so in locations outside Hollywood. This presentation thus intervenes in two significant ways: first, it acknowledges the ongoing global ‘undoing’ of organized labor as a consequence of footloose production and conglomeration within the screen industries, and second, it examines a case example of worker solidarity and political praxis taking shape outside formal labor institutions in response to those structural shifts. Accordingly, it links an empirical study of individual agency to broader debates associated with the spatial dynamics of screen media production, including local capacity, regional competition, and precariousness. Drawing from ethnographic interviews with local film and television workers in Glasgow, Scotland, I consider the political alliance among three nascent labor organizations in the city: one for below-the-line crew, one for facility operators, and (oddly enough) one for producers. Collectively, the groups share a desire to transform Glasgow into a global production hub, following the infrastructure developments in nearby cities like Belfast, Prague, and Budapest. They furthermore frame their objectives in political terms: establishing global scale is considered a necessary maneuver to improve local working conditions like workplace safety, income disparity, skills training, and job access. Ultimately, I argue these groups are a product of an inadequate union structure and outdated policy vision for the screen sector , once-supportive institutions currently out of sync with the global realities of media production. Furthermore, the groups’ advocacy efforts reveal the extent to which workers themselves (in additional to capital) can seek “spatial fixes” to suture their prospects to specific political and economic goals. Of course, such activities manifest under conditions outside of the workers’ control but nevertheless point to an important tension within capitalist social relations, namely that the agency to reshape the spatial relationships in their own lives recasts the geography of labor in terms that aren’t inherent or exclusive to the interests of global capital.

Impact of exercise selection on hamstring muscle activation

Objective: To determine the extent to which different strength training exercises selectively activate the commonly injured biceps femoris long head (BFLH) muscle. Methods: This two-part observational study recruited 24 recreationally active males. Part 1 explored the amplitudes and the ratios of lateral to medial hamstring (BF/MH) normalised electromyography (nEMG) during the concentric and eccentric phases of 10 common strength training exercises. Part 2 used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to determine the spatial patterns of hamstring activation during two exercises which i) most selectively, and ii) least selectively activated the BF in part 1. Results: Eccentrically, the largest BF/MH nEMG ratio was observed in the 45° hip extension exercise and the lowest was observed in the Nordic hamstring (NHE) and bent-knee bridge exercises. Concentrically, the highest BF/MH nEMG ratio was observed during the lunge and 45° hip extension and the lowest was observed for the leg curl and bent-knee bridge. fMRI revealed a greater BFLH to semitendinosus activation ratio in the 45° hip extension than the NHE (p<0.001). The T2 increase after hip extension for BFLH, semitendinosus and semimembranosus muscles were greater than that for BFSH (p<0.001). During the NHE, the T2 increase was greater for the semitendinosus than for the other hamstrings (p≤0.002). Conclusion: This investigation highlights the non-uniformity of hamstring activation patterns in different tasks and suggests that hip extension exercise more selectively activates the BFLH while the NHE preferentially recruits the semitendinosus. These findings have implications for strength training interventions aimed at preventing hamstring injury.