Heuristics and building price forecasting

The construction industry contains two types of estimators the contractors' estimator and the designers' price forecaster. Each has two models of the building in which to systemize his procedures - the production model and the design model. The use of these models is discussed in the light of the industry's particular problems of complexity and uncertainty together with the pressures of the market. It is argued that estimators and forecasters, in order to function effectively in these conditions, are forced to exercise a high degree of subjective judgment. Means of eliciting good heuristics involved in judgment making are considered by reference to the artificial intelligence and construction literature and a methodology is proposed based on these findings. The results of two early trials of the method with students are given, indicating the usefulness of the approach.

Understanding the operational structure of Southeast Asian drug trafficking groups in Australia

This thesis examined the operational structure of Southeast Asian drug trafficking groups operating on the eastern seaboard of Australia by testing the validity and application of organised crime and drug trafficking typologies using data obtained from 159 drug trafficking cases in three Australian states: New South Wales; Queensland; and Victoria. Key findings indicated that the usefulness of typologies is limited when classifying and analysing organised crime groups. In particular, Southeast Asian drug trafficking groups operated largely in small, informal, family-based hierarchies or groups that were better conceptualised using theoretical perspectives from network and cultural studies. The study recommended that replicating previous empirical research in the field is an effective approach that will contribute towards building a cumulative body of knowledge on organised crime structures.

Community response to disasters in Indonesia : Gotong Royong; a double edged-sword

Indonesia is a country spread across wide-ranging archipelago, located in South East Asia between two oceans, the Indian and the Pacific. Indonesia is well known as an active tectonic region because it lies on top of three major active tectonic plates: the Eurasian in the North, the Indian Ocean-Australian in the South, and the Pacific plate in the East. The southern and eastern part of the country features a range of volcanic arcs, volcanic mountains, and lowlands with 500 young volcanoes, of which 128 are active and thus representing 15% of the world’s active volcanoes. In the period 2002-2007, approximately 1782 disasters occurred, with hundreds of thousands of lives lost and billions of rupiah in losses incurred: (Floods - 1183 instances, cyclones - 272 instances, and landslides - 252 instances). Of these, the 2004 Aceh tsunami and the 2006 central Java earthquake (impacting predominantly city and suburbs of Yogyakarta) were the most significant. Even so, disaster management experts believe lessons learnt from the two major natural disasters needs to be formalised into laws and institutions before another disaster occurs, regardless of the type of natural disaster – i.e. Volcano eruption or landslide; as opposed to tsunami or earthquake. Following in the wake of disasters occurring in Yogyakarta, many of its community members responded by banding together as one, with the determination of rebuilding its villages and cities through the spirit of ‘gotong royong’. The idea of social interaction; in particular as a collective, consensual, and cooperative nation; has predominantly formed the ideological basis of Indonesia’s societal nature. Many Indonesian terms cohere to this ideology, such as: ‘koperasi” (cooperatives as the basis of economic interactions), ‘musyawarah’ (consensual nature in decision making), and ‘gotong royong’ (mutual assistance). ‘Gotong royong’ has become a key cultural operator in Indonesia, in particular In Jogjakarta. Appropriately so as ‘gotong royong’ is depicted from the traditional Javanese village, where labour is accomplished through reciprocal exchange and the villagers are motivated by a general ethos of selfishness and concern for the common good. The culture of ‘gotong royong’ promotes positive values such as social harmony and mutual reciprocation in disaster-affected areas provides the necessary spirit needed to endure the hardships and for all involved. While gotong royong emphasises the positive notions of mutual family support and deep community level activity there is a potential for contrast against government lead disaster response and recovery management activities especially in settings where sporadic governance mechanisms exist and transparency and accountability in the recovery process of public infrastructure assets have been questioned. This paper thus questions whether Gotong Royong is a double-edged sword, and explores the potential marriage of community values and governance mechanisms for future disaster management planning and practice.

Fatigue self-management : a survey of Chinese cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy

Aims and objectives. To examine Chinese cancer patients’ fatigue self-management, including the types of self-management behaviours used, their confidence in using these behaviours, the degree of relief obtained and the factors associated with patients’ use of fatigue self-management behaviours. Background. Fatigue places significant burden on patients with cancer undergoing chemotherapy. While some studies have explored fatigue self-management in Western settings, very few studies have explored self-management behaviours in China. Design. Cross-sectional self- and/or interviewer-administered survey. Methods. A total of 271 participants with self-reported fatigue in the past week were recruited from a specialist cancer hospital in south-east China. Participants completed measures assessing the use of fatigue self-management behaviours, corresponding self-efficacy, perceived relief levels plus items assessing demographic characteristics, fatigue experiences, distress and social support. Results. A mean of 4_94 (_2_07; range 1–10) fatigue self-management behaviours was reported. Most behaviours were rated as providing moderate relief and were implemented with moderate self-efficacy. Regression analyses identified that having more support from one’s neighbourhood and better functional status predicted the use of a greater number of self-management behaviours. Separate regression analyses identified that greater neighbourhood support predicted greater relief from ‘activity enhancement behaviours’ and that better functional status predicted greater relief from ‘rest and sleep behaviours’. Higher self-efficacy scores predicted greater relief from corresponding behaviours. Conclusions. A range of fatigue self-management behaviours were initiated by Chinese patients with cancer. Individual, condition and environmental factors were found to influence engagement in and relief from fatigue self-managementbehaviours. Relevance to clinical practice. Findings highlight the need for nurses to explore patients’ use of fatigue self-management behaviours and the effectiveness of these behaviours in reducing fatigue. Interventions that improve patients’ self-efficacy and neighbourhood supports have the potential to improve outcomes from fatigue self-management behaviours.

Wrongful birth : assessment of damages in 2013

More than 10 years have passed since the High Court of Australia confirmed the recoverability of damages for the cost of raising a child, in the well-known decision in Cattanach v Melchior. Yet a number of aspects of the assessment of such “wrongful birth” damages had not been the subject of a comprehensive court ruling. The recent decision in Waller v James was widely anticipated as potentially providing a comprehensive discussion of the principles relevant to the assessment of damages in wrongful birth cases. However, given a finding on causation adverse to the plaintiffs, the trial judge held that it was unnecessary to determine the quantum of damages. Justice Hislop did, however, make some comments in relation to the assessment of damages. This article focuses mostly on the argued damages issues relating to the costs of raising the child and the trial judge’s comments regarding the same. The Waller v James claim was issued before the enactment of the Health Care Liability Act 2001 (NSW) and the Civil Liability Act 2002 (NSW). Although the case was therefore decided according to the “common law”, as explained below, his Honour’s comments may be of relevance to more recent claims governed by the civil liability legislation in New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia.

Climate variability over the last 35,000 years recorded in marine and terrestrial archives in the Australian region : an OZ-INTIMATE compilation

The Australian region spans some 60° of latitude and 50° of longitude and displays considerable regional climate variability both today and during the Late Quaternary. A synthesis of marine and terrestrial climate records, combining findings from the Southern Ocean, temperate, tropical and arid zones, identifies a complex response of climate proxies to a background of changing boundary conditions over the last 35,000 years. Climate drivers include the seasonal timing of insolation, greenhouse gas content of the atmosphere, sea level rise and ocean and atmospheric circulation changes. Our compilation finds few climatic events that could be used to construct a climate event stratigraphy for the entire region, limiting the usefulness of this approach. Instead we have taken a spatial approach, looking to discern the patterns of change across the continent. The data identify the clearest and most synchronous climatic response at the time of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 ± 3 ka), with unambiguous cooling recorded in the ocean, and evidence of glaciation in the highlands of tropical New Guinea, southeast Australia and Tasmania. Many terrestrial records suggest drier conditions, but with the timing of inferred snowmelt, and changes to the rainfall/runoff relationships, driving higher river discharge at the LGM. In contrast, the deglaciation is a time of considerable south-east to north-west variation across the region. Warming was underway in all regions by 17 ka. Post-glacial sea level rise and its associated regional impacts have played an important role in determining the magnitude and timing of climate response in the north-west of the continent in contrast to the southern latitudes. No evidence for cooling during the Younger Dryas chronozone is evident in the region, but the Antarctic cold reversal clearly occurs south of Australia. The Holocene period is a time of considerable climate variability associated with an intense monsoon in the tropics early in the Holocene, giving way to a weakened monsoon and an increasingly El Niño-dominated ENSO to the present. The influence of ENSO is evident throughout the southeast of Australia, but not the southwest. This climate history provides a template from which to assess the regionality of climate events across Australia and make comparisons beyond our region. The data identify the clearest and most synchronous climatic response at the time of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 ± 3 ka), with unambiguous cooling recorded in the ocean, and evidence of glaciation in the highlands of tropical New Guinea, southeast Australia and Tasmania. Many terrestrial records suggest drier conditions, but with the timing of inferred snowmelt, and changes to the rainfall/runoff relationships, driving higher river discharge at the LGM. In contrast, the deglaciation is a time of considerable south-east to north-west variation across the region. Warming was underway in all regions by 17 ka. Post-glacial sea level rise and its associated regional impacts have played an important role in determining the magnitude and timing of climate response in the north-west of the continent in contrast to the southern latitudes. No evidence for cooling during the Younger Dryas chronozone is evident in the region, but the Antarctic cold reversal clearly occurs south of Australia. The Holocene period is a time of considerable climate variability associated with an intense monsoon in the tropics early in the Holocene, giving way to a weakened monsoon and an increasingly El Niño-dominated ENSO to the present. The influence of ENSO is evident throughout the southeast of Australia, but not the southwest. This climate history provides a template from which to assess the regionality of climate events across Australia and make comparisons beyond our region.

Knowledge based urban development lessons from a non-western country : the Malaysia experience

Knowledge based urban development (KBUD) is seen as a new paradigm in urban planning and development which is now being implemented across the globe in order to increase the competitiveness of cities and regions. The KBUD concept has been widely applied in western and more developed countries over the last decade, and many have been proven successful. This paper, however, aims to provide an overview of the KBUD exercise in a context of a non western country scenario—Malaysia. Literature suggests that the urban development process in non western countries is different and very much focusing on physical elements. Whether this is the case or otherwise, this paper scrutinises the project of Multimedia Super Corridor (MSC), Malaysia, which is regarded as one of the first large scale manifestations of KBUD exercise in South East Asia. Based on development policies analysis and results of the interviews with the major stakeholders, this paper investigates the application of KBUD concept within the Malaysian context by examining the development and evolution of the city of Cyberjaya—the leading intelligent city of the MSC project. In the light of the literature and case findings, the paper provides recommendations and lessons learned, on the orchestration of KBUD, for other non western cities and regions that are working hard to develop KBUD strategies, strengthening their sustainable socio-spatial policies and seeking a global recognition.

Public hospital utilisation during the 1997 Arafura Games

In view of the upcoming Sydney Olympics and several recent reports describing the experience at the Atlantic Olympics, we report the findings of the only Australian study which, to our knowledge, measured the impact of a large-scale sporting event on a public hospital. The study also provided an avenue for increased surveillance for communicable diseases. We prospectively assessed the utilisation of the Royal Darwin Hospital (RDH) by visiting athletes, officials and spectators during the 1997 Arafura Games, a biannual, seven-day international sporting event which attracts some 4,000 athletes and their supporters from across Australia, South-East Asia and the Pacific. The RDH Emergency Department (ED) is the only free, 24- hour medical facility in Darwin and no additional staff or resources were provided during the Games period. Official facilities included two privately operated sports medicine clinics for the sole use of athletes with sporting injuries during prescribed hours in the week of competition, and the presence of St John Ambulance at venues...

An outbreak of salmonellosis linked to a marine turtle

In September 1998, an outbreak of gastroenteritis occurred in a coastal Aboriginal community in the Northern Territory over a seven day period. An investigation was conducted by the Center for Disease Control, Territory Health Services. Thirty-six cases were detected and 17% (n=6) were hospitalized. Salmonella chester was isolated from eight of nine stool specimens. Sixty-two percent of cases interviewed (n=28) reported consumption of a green turtle (Chelonia mydas) within a median of 24 hours prior to onset of illness. Of the remainder, all but two were contacts of other cases. Salmonella chester was isolated from a section of partially cooked turtle meat. There are no previous published reports of salmonellosis associated with consumption of sea turtles despite them being a popular food source in coastal communities in the Pacific.

A case of Kunjin virus encephalitis in a traveller returning from the Northern Territory

On 6 May 2001, a 67-year-old Australian born, Caucasian male presented to the Emergency Department of the Austin and Repatriation Medical Centre (A&RMC) with a 3 day history of fever, lethargy and confusion. This occurred one week after returning from a trip to the Northern Territory. His previous medical problems included ischaemic heart disease, a repaired abdominal aortic aneurysm, hypertension, hyperlipidaemia and congestive cardiac failure. He smoked 20 cigarettes per day and had a history of heavy alcohol consumption. He had no history of diabetes. His medications were aspirin, frusemide, lisinopril, simvastatin, and a nitroglycerol patch. Fifty years ago, he had an adverse reaction to penicillin with angioedema and an urticarial rash. Four weeks before admission he went on a fishing trip in the Northern Territory. He travelled by road, through outback regions of Victoria, New South Wales, Queensland, the Northern Territory and South Australia, spending time in Daly River, Coolum, Darwin, Dunmarra, Avon Downs, Innaminka and Mataranka. He was away for 3 weeks and camped in tents or outside in a swag throughout the trip. He recalls numerous times where he was exposed to mosquitoes with large numbers of bites at Dunmarra. During the time away, he remained well as did his 5 travelling companions. There was...

Production of transgenic rice with rice ragged stunt virus synthetic resistance genes

Rice ragged stunt virus (RRSV) is an important pathogen of rice affecting its cultivation in South and South East Asia. An approach based on pathogen derived resistance (PDR) was used to produce RRSV resistant rice cultivars. Sequences from the coding region of RRSV genome segments 7 and 10 (non-structural genes), and 5, 8 and 9 (structural genes) were placed in sense or antisense orientation behind the plant expression promoters CaMV35S, RolC, Ubil, Actl and RBTV. Rice cultivars Taipei 309 and Chinsurah Boro II were transformed by biolistic and/or Agrobacterium-mediated delivery of one or more of these PDR gene constructs. A large number of transgenic lines were produced from calli derived from mature or immature embryos, co-bombarded with the marker gene hph encoding hygromycin resistance and RRSV PDR genes or co-cultivated with strains having the binary vector containing these two genes. Both Mendelian and non-Mendelian segregations were observed in transgenic progeny, especially with transgenic lines produced by biolistics. Preliminary tests conducted in China on selected transgenic lines indicate that plants with RRSV segment 5 antisense PDR gene confer RRSV resistance.

Exploring postnatal depression in Thua Thien Hue Province, Central Vietnam

Introduction Postnatal depression (PND) is an important public health issue due to its impact on maternal wellbeing, infant development, and family cohesion. The estimated prevalence of PND during the first 12 months post-partum ranges between10-20% worldwide. Whilst PND used to be considered a syndrome only occurring in western countries, there is now evidence that it occurs throughout the world, and often at higher rates in low and middleincome countries. To date, there has been little research into PND in South East Asia and only two community-based surveys in Vietnam, one in Ho Chi Minh City in 1999 and one in Hanoi and Ha Nam in 2009. This study will investigate health worker attitudes about risk and protective factors for PND among women in Thua Thien Hue province in central Vietnam. Methodology In 2009, 23 health professionals participated in qualitative exploratory research of postnatal depression in Hue. This included two focus groups with 12 health professionals who completed a concept mapping process, and in-depth interviews with another 11 health professionals. Results Many factors relating to postnatal depression were identified including socio-economic status, son preference, mother’s health, infant health, social support from family and the community, and health promoting behaviours. In-depth interviews highlighted community knowledge and attitudes surrounding PND such as traditional confinement practices and fear of experiencing stigma. Conclusion The findings of this research will be used to plan a substantial community-based quantitative survey in order to establish prevalence of PND and surrounding social determinants in central Vietnam.

Lesson studies in Chinese kindergartens

Lesson studies are a powerful form of professional development (Doig and Groves, 2011). The processes of creating, enacting, analyzing, and refining lessons to improve teaching practices are key components of lesson studies. Lesson studies have been the primary form of professional development in Japanese classrooms for many years (Lewis, Perry and Hurd, 2009). This model is now used to improve instruction in many South-East Asian countries (White and Lim, 2008), as well as increasingly in North America (Lesson Study Research Group, 2004), and South Africa (Ono and Ferreira, 2010). In China, this form of professional development aimed at improving teaching, has also been adopted, originating from Soviet models of teacher professional development arising from influences post 1949 (China Education Yearbook, 1986). Thus, China too has a long history of improving teaching and learning through this form of school-based professional learning.