Loss reduction planning in electric distribution networks of IRAN until 2025

In this paper, a loss reduction planning in electric distribution networks is presented based on the successful experiences in distribution utilities of IRAN and some developed countries. The necessary technical and economical parameters of planning are calculated from related projects in IRAN. Cost, time, and benefits of every sub-program including seven loss reduction approaches are determined. Finally, the loss reduction program, the benefit per cost, and the return of investment in optimistic and pessimistic conditions are introduced.

A novel algorithm based on honey bee mating optimization for distribution harmonic state estimation including distributed generators

This paper presents a new algorithm based on honey-bee mating optimization (HBMO) to estimate harmonic state variables in distribution networks including distributed generators (DGs). The proposed algorithm performs estimation for both amplitude and phase of each harmonics by minimizing the error between the measured values from phasor measurement units (PMUs) and the values computed from the estimated parameters during the estimation process. Simulation results on two distribution test system are presented to demonstrate that the speed and accuracy of proposed distribution harmonic state estimation (DHSE) algorithm is extremely effective and efficient in comparison with the conventional algorithms such as weight least square (WLS), genetic algorithm (GA) and tabu search (TS).

Load profile based determination of distribution feeder configuration by dynamic programming

This paper presents a new method to determine feeder reconfiguration scheme considering variable load profile. The objective function consists of system losses, reliability costs and also switching costs. In order to achieve an optimal solution the proposed method compares these costs dynamically and determines when and how it is reasonable to have a switching operation. The proposed method divides a year into several equal time periods, then using particle swarm optimization (PSO), optimal candidate configurations for each period are obtained. System losses and customer interruption cost of each configuration during each period is also calculated. Then, considering switching cost from a configuration to another one, dynamic programming algorithm (DPA) is used to determine the annual reconfiguration scheme. Several test systems were used to validate the proposed method. The obtained results denote that to have an optimum solution it is necessary to compare operation costs dynamically.

A novel hybrid evolutionary algorithm based on ACO and SA for distribution feeder reconfiguration with regard to DGs

This paper presents an efficient hybrid evolutionary optimization algorithm based on combining Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) and Simulated Annealing (SA), called ACO-SA, for distribution feeder reconfiguration (DFR) considering Distributed Generators (DGs). Due to private ownership of DGs, a cost based compensation method is used to encourage DGs in active and reactive power generation. The objective function is summation of electrical energy generated by DGs and substation bus (main bus) in the next day. The approach is tested on a real distribution feeder. The simulation results show that the proposed evolutionary optimization algorithm is robust and suitable for solving DFR problem.

Distribution feeder reconfiguration for loss minimization based on modified honey bee mating optimization algorithm

This paper presents an efficient algorithm for multi-objective distribution feeder reconfiguration based on Modified Honey Bee Mating Optimization (MHBMO) approach. The main objective of the Distribution feeder reconfiguration (DFR) is to minimize the real power loss, deviation of the nodes’ voltage. Because of the fact that the objectives are different and no commensurable, it is difficult to solve the problem by conventional approaches that may optimize a single objective. So the metahuristic algorithm has been applied to this problem. This paper describes the full algorithm to Objective functions paid, The results of simulations on a 32 bus distribution system is given and shown high accuracy and optimize the proposed algorithm in power loss minimization.

A hybrid evolutionary algorithm based on ACO and SA for distribution feeder reconfiguration

This paper deals with an efficient hybrid evolutionary optimization algorithm in accordance with combining the ant colony optimization (ACO) and the simulated annealing (SA), so called ACO-SA. The distribution feeder reconfiguration (DFR) is known as one of the most important control schemes in the distribution networks, which can be affected by distributed generations (DGs) for the multi-objective DFR. In such a case, DGs is used to minimize the real power loss, the deviation of nodes voltage and the number of switching operations. The approach is carried out on a real distribution feeder, where the simulation results show that the proposed evolutionary optimization algorithm is robust and suitable for solving the DFR problem.

Self-exciting hurdle models for terrorist activity

A predictive model of terrorist activity is developed by examining the daily number of terrorist attacks in Indonesia from 1994 through 2007. The dynamic model employs a shot noise process to explain the self-exciting nature of the terrorist activities. This estimates the probability of future attacks as a function of the times since the past attacks. In addition, the excess of nonattack days coupled with the presence of multiple coordinated attacks on the same day compelled the use of hurdle models to jointly model the probability of an attack day and corresponding number of attacks. A power law distribution with a shot noise driven parameter best modeled the number of attacks on an attack day. Interpretation of the model parameters is discussed and predictive performance of the models is evaluated.

Optimal distributed generation placement in radial distribution systems

Distributed generation (DG) resources are commonly used in the electric systems to obtain minimum line losses, as one of the benefits of DG, in radial distribution systems. Studies have shown the importance of appropriate selection of location and size of DGs. This paper proposes an analytical method for solving optimal distributed generation placement (ODGP) problem to minimize line losses in radial distribution systems using loss sensitivity factor (LSF) based on bus-injection to branch-current (BIBC) matrix. The proposed method is formulated and tested on 12 and 34 bus radial distribution systems. The classical grid search algorithm based on successive load flows is employed to validate the results. The main advantages of the proposed method as compared with the other conventional methods are the robustness and no need to calculate and invert large admittance or Jacobian matrices. Therefore, the simulation time and the amount of computer memory, required for processing data especially for the large systems, decreases.

Distribution harmonic state estimation based on a hybrid PSO and SA algorithm considering parameters uncertainty

This paper presents a new algorithm based on a Hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Simulated Annealing (SA) called PSO-SA to estimate harmonic state variables in distribution networks. The proposed algorithm performs estimation for both amplitude and phase of each harmonic currents injection by minimizing the error between the measured values from Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs) and the values computed from the estimated parameters during the estimation process. The proposed algorithm can take into account the uncertainty of the harmonic pseudo measurement and the tolerance in the line impedances of the network as well as uncertainty of the Distributed Generators (DGs) such as Wind Turbines (WT). The main feature of proposed PSO-SA algorithm is to reach quickly around the global optimum by PSO with enabling a mutation function and then to find that optimum by SA searching algorithm. Simulation results on IEEE 34 bus radial and a realistic 70-bus radial test networks are presented to demonstrate the speed and accuracy of proposed Distribution Harmonic State Estimation (DHSE) algorithm is extremely effective and efficient in comparison with the conventional algorithms such as Weight Least Square (WLS), Genetic Algorithm (GA), original PSO and Honey Bees Mating Optimization (HBMO) algorithm.

Distribution state estimation based on particle swarm and doubly loop mutant optimization (DLM-PSO)

This paper presents a novel algorithm based on particle swarm optimization (PSO) to estimate the states of electric distribution networks. In order to improve the performance, accuracy, convergence speed, and eliminate the stagnation effect of original PSO, a secondary PSO loop and mutation algorithm as well as stretching function is proposed. For accounting uncertainties of loads in distribution networks, pseudo-measurements is modeled as loads with the realistic errors. Simulation results on 6-bus radial and 34-bus IEEE test distribution networks show that the distribution state estimation based on proposed DLM-PSO presents lower estimation error and standard deviation in comparison with algorithms such as WLS, GA, HBMO, and original PSO.

Effectiveness of reactive power capability of photo voltaic inverters to maintain voltage profile in a residential distribution feeder

Large penetration of rooftop PVs has resulted in unacceptable voltage profile in many residential distribution feeders. Limiting real power injection from PVs to alleviate over voltage problem is not feasible due to loss of green power and hence corresponding revenue loss. Reactive capability of the PV inverter can be a solution to address over voltage and voltage dip problems to some extent. This paper proposes an algorithm to utilize reactive capability of PV inverters and investigate their effectiveness for voltage improvement based on R/X ratio of the feeder. The length and loading level of the feeder for a particular R/X ratio to have acceptable voltage profile is also investigated. This can be useful for suburban design and residential distribution planning. Furthermore, coordination among different PVs using residential smart meters via a substation based controller is also proposed.

Effectiveness of reactive power capability of photo voltaic inverters to maintain acceptable voltage profile in a residential distribution system

Integration of rooftop PVs and increasing peak demand in the residential distribution networks has resulted in unacceptable voltage profile. Curtailing PV generation to alleviate overvoltage problem and making regular network investment to cater peak demand is not always feasible. Reactive capability of the PV inverter can be a solution to address voltage dip and over voltage problems to some extent. This paper proposes an algorithm to utilize reactive capability of PV inverters and investigate their effectiveness on feeder length and R/X ratio of the line. Feeder loading level for a particular R/X ratio to have acceptable voltage profile is also investigated. Furthermore, the need of appropriate feeder distances and R/X ratio for acceptable voltage profile, which can be useful for suburban design and distribution planning, is explored.

Do prediction markets produce well-calibrated probability forecasts?

This article presents new theoretical and empirical evidence on the forecasting ability of prediction markets. We develop a model that predicts that the time until expiration of a prediction market should negatively affect the accuracy of prices as a forecasting tool in the direction of a ‘favourite/longshot bias’. That is, high-likelihood events are underpriced, and low-likelihood events are over-priced. We confirm this result using a large data set of prediction market transaction prices. Prediction markets are reasonably well calibrated when time to expiration is relatively short, but prices are significantly biased for events farther in the future. When time value of money is considered, the miscalibration can be exploited to earn excess returns only when the trader has a relatively low discount rate.

Using the quantum probability ranking principle to rank interdependent documents

A known limitation of the Probability Ranking Principle (PRP) is that it does not cater for dependence between documents. Recently, the Quantum Probability Ranking Principle (QPRP) has been proposed, which implicitly captures dependencies between documents through “quantum interference”. This paper explores whether this new ranking principle leads to improved performance for subtopic retrieval, where novelty and diversity is required. In a thorough empirical investigation, models based on the PRP, as well as other recently proposed ranking strategies for subtopic retrieval (i.e. Maximal Marginal Relevance (MMR) and Portfolio Theory(PT)), are compared against the QPRP. On the given task, it is shown that the QPRP outperforms these other ranking strategies. And unlike MMR and PT, one of the main advantages of the QPRP is that no parameter estimation/tuning is required; making the QPRP both simple and effective. This research demonstrates that the application of quantum theory to problems within information retrieval can lead to significant improvements.

Developing the quantum probability ranking principle

In this work, we summarise the development of a ranking principle based on quantum probability theory, called the Quantum Probability Ranking Principle (QPRP), and we also provide an overview of the initial experiments performed employing the QPRP. The main difference between the QPRP and the classic Probability Ranking Principle, is that the QPRP implicitly captures the dependencies between documents by means of quantum interference". Subsequently, the optimal ranking of documents is not based solely on documents' probability of relevance but also on the interference with the previously ranked documents. Our research shows that the application of quantum theory to problems within information retrieval can lead to consistently better retrieval effectiveness, while still being simple, elegant and tractable.