Forecasting crashes at the planning level: Simultaneous negative binomial crash model applied in Tucson, Arizona

At least two important transportation planning activities rely on planning-level crash prediction models. One is motivated by the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century, which requires departments of transportation and metropolitan planning organizations to consider safety explicitly in the transportation planning process. The second could arise from a need for state agencies to establish incentive programs to reduce injuries and save lives. Both applications require a forecast of safety for a future period. Planning-level crash prediction models for the Tucson, Arizona, metropolitan region are presented to demonstrate the feasibility of such models. Data were separated into fatal, injury, and property-damage crashes. To accommodate overdispersion in the data, negative binomial regression models were applied. To accommodate the simultaneity of fatality and injury crash outcomes, simultaneous estimation of the models was conducted. All models produce crash forecasts at the traffic analysis zone level. Statistically significant (p-values < 0.05) and theoretically meaningful variables for the fatal crash model included population density, persons 17 years old or younger as a percentage of the total population, and intersection density. Significant variables for the injury and property-damage crash models were population density, number of employees, intersections density, percentage of miles of principal arterial, percentage of miles of minor arterials, and percentage of miles of urban collectors. Among several conclusions it is suggested that planning-level safety models are feasible and may play a role in future planning activities. However, caution must be exercised with such models.

Statistical and Econometric Methods for Transportation Data Analysis, 2nd edition

Now in its second edition, this book describes tools that are commonly used in transportation data analysis. The first part of the text provides statistical fundamentals while the second part presents continuous dependent variable models. With a focus on count and discrete dependent variable models, the third part features new chapters on mixed logit models, logistic regression, and ordered probability models. The last section provides additional coverage of Bayesian statistical modeling, including Bayesian inference and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Data sets are available online to use with the modeling techniques discussed.

Component reliability estimations without field data

Maintenance activities in a large-scale engineering system are usually scheduled according to the lifetimes of various components in order to ensure the overall reliability of the system. Lifetimes of components can be deduced by the corresponding probability distributions with parameters estimated from past failure data. While failure data of the components is not always readily available, the engineers have to be content with the primitive information from the manufacturers only, such as the mean and standard deviation of lifetime, to plan for the maintenance activities. In this paper, the moment-based piecewise polynomial model (MPPM) are proposed to estimate the parameters of the reliability probability distribution of the products when only the mean and standard deviation of the product lifetime are known. This method employs a group of polynomial functions to estimate the two parameters of the Weibull Distribution according to the mathematical relationship between the shape parameter of two-parameters Weibull Distribution and the ratio of mean and standard deviation. Tests are carried out to evaluate the validity and accuracy of the proposed methods with discussions on its suitability of applications. The proposed method is particularly useful for reliability-critical systems, such as railway and power systems, in which the maintenance activities are scheduled according to the expected lifetimes of the system components.

Determinants of infant and young child feeding practices in Bangladesh: Secondary data analysis of Demographic and Health Survey 2004

BACKGROUND: In Bangladesh, poor infant and young child feeding practices are contributing to the burden of infectious diseases and malnutrition. Objective. To estimate the determinants of selected feeding practices and key indicators of breastfeeding and complementary feeding in Bangladesh. METHODS: The sample included 2482 children aged 0 to 23 months from the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey of 2004. The World Health Organization (WHO)-recommended infant and young child feeding indicators were estimated, and selected feeding indicators were examined against a set of individual-, household-, and community-level variables using univariate and multivariate analyses. RESULTS: Only 27.5% of mothers initiated breastfeeding within the first hour after birth, 99.9% had ever breastfed their infants, 97.3% were currently breastfeeding, and 22.4% were currently bottle-feeding. Among infants under 6 months of age, 42.5% were exclusively breastfed, and among those aged 6 to 9 months, 62.3% received complementary foods in addition to breastmilk. Among the risk factors for an infant not being exclusively breastfed were higher socioeconomic status, higher maternal education, and living in the Dhaka region. Higher birth order and female sex were associated with increased rates of exclusive breastfeeding of infants under 6 months of age. The risk factors for bottle-feeding were similar and included having a partner with a higher educational level (OR = 2.17), older maternal age (OR for age > or = 35 years = 2.32), and being in the upper wealth quintiles (OR for the richest = 3.43). Urban mothers were at higher risk for not initiating breastfeeding within the first hour after birth (OR = 1.61). Those who made three to six visits to the antenatal clinic were at lower risk for not initiating breastfeeding within the first hour (OR = 0.61). The rate of initiating breastfeeding within the first hour was higher in mothers from richer households (OR = 0.37). CONCLUSIONS: Most breastfeeding indicators in Bangladesh were below acceptable levels. Breastfeeding promotion programs in Bangladesh need nationwide application because of the low rates of appropriate infant feeding indicators, but they should also target women who have the main risk factors, i.e., working mothers living in urban areas (particularly in Dhaka).

Determinants of infant and young child feeding practices in Sri Lanka : secondary data analysis of demographic and health survey 2000

Background: Poor feeding practices in early childhood contribute to the burden of childhood malnutrition and morbidity. Objective: To estimate the key indicators of breastfeeding and complementary feeding and the determinants of selected feeding practices in Sri Lanka. Methods: The sample consisted of 1,127 children aged 0 to 23 months from the Sri Lanka Demographic and Health Survey 2000. The key infant feeding indicators were estimated and selected indicators were examined against a set of individual-, household-, and community- level variables using univariate and multivariate analyses. Results: Breastfeeding was initiated within the first hour after birth in 56.3% of infants, 99.7% had ever been breastfed, 85.0% were currently being breastfed, and 27.2% were being bottle-fed. Of infants under 6 months of age, 60.6% were fully breastfed, and of those aged 6 to 9 months, 93.4% received complementary foods. The likelihood of not initiating breastfeeding within the first hour after birth was higher for mothers who underwent cesarean delivery (OR = 3.23) and those who were not visited by a Public Health Midwife at home during pregnancy (OR = 1.81). The rate of full breastfeeding was significantly lower among mothers who did not receive postnatal home visits by a Public Health Midwife. Bottlefeeding rates were higher among infants whose mothers had ever been employed (OR = 1.86), lived in a metropolitan area (OR = 3.99), or lived in the South-Central Hill country (OR = 3.11) and were lower among infants of mothers with secondary education (OR = 0.27). Infants from the urban (OR = 8.06) and tea estate (OR = 12.63) sectors were less likely to receive timely complementary feeding than rural infants. Conclusions: Antenatal and postnatal contacts with Public Health Midwives were associated with improved breastfeeding practices. Breastfeeding promotion strategies should specifically focus on the estate and urban or metropolitan communities.

Determinants of infant and young child feeding practices in Nepal : secondary data analysis of demographic and health survey 2006

Background: Childhood undernutrition and mortality are high in Nepal, and therefore interventions on infant and young child feeding practices deserve high priority. Objective. To estimate infant and young child feeding indicators and the determinants of selected feeding practices. Methods: The sample consisted of 1,906 children aged 0 to 23 months from the Demographic and Health Survey 2006. Selected indicators were examined against a set of variables using univariate and multivariate analyses. Results. Breastfeeding was initiated within the first hour after birth in 35.4% of children, 99.5% were ever breastfed, 98.1% were currently breastfed, and 3.5% were bottle-fed. The rate of exclusive breastfeeding among infants under 6 months of age was 53.1%, and the rate of timely complementary feeding among those 6 to 9 months of age was 74.7%. Mothers who made antenatal clinic visits were at a higher risk for no exclusive breastfeeding than those who made no visits. Mothers who lived in the mountains were more likely to initiate breastfeeding within 1 hour after birth and to introduce complementary feeding at 6 to 9 months of age, but less likely to exclusively breastfeed. Cesarean deliveries were associated with delay in timely initiation of breastfeeding. Higher rates of complementary feeding at 6 to 9 months were also associated with mothers with better education and those above 35 years of age. Risk factors for bottle-feeding included living in urban areas and births attended by trained health personnel. Conclusions: Most breastfeeding indicators in Nepal are below the expected levels to achieve a substantial reduction in child mortality. Breastfeeding promotion strategies should specifically target mothers who have more contact with the health care delivery system, while programs targeting the entire community should be continued.

Infant and young child feeding indicators and determinants of poor feeding practices in India : secondary data analysis of National Family Health Survey 2005–06

Background: In India, poor feeding practices in early childhood contribute to the burden of malnutrition and infant and child mortality. Objective. To estimate infant and young child feeding indicators and determinants of selected feeding practices in India. Methods: The sample consisted of 20,108 children aged 0 to 23 months from the National Family Health Survey India 2005–06. Selected indicators were examined against a set of variables using univariate and multivariate analyses. Results: Only 23.5% of mothers initiated breastfeeding within the first hour after birth, 99.2% had ever breastfed their infant, 89.8% were currently breastfeeding, and 14.8% were currently bottle-feeding. Among infants under 6 months of age, 46.4% were exclusively breastfed, and 56.7% of those aged 6 to 9 months received complementary foods. The risk factors for not exclusively breastfeeding were higher household wealth index quintiles (OR for richest = 2.03), delivery in a health facility (OR = 1.35), and living in the Northern region. Higher numbers of antenatal care visits were associated with increased rates of exclusive breastfeeding (OR for ≥ 7 antenatal visits = 0.58). The rates of timely initiation of breastfeeding were higher among women who were better educated (OR for secondary education or above = 0.79), were working (OR = 0.79), made more antenatal clinic visits (OR for ≥ 7 antenatal visits = 0.48), and were exposed to the radio (OR = 0.76). The rates were lower in women who were delivered by cesarean section (OR = 2.52). The risk factors for bottle-feeding included cesarean delivery (OR = 1.44), higher household wealth index quintiles (OR = 3.06), working by the mother (OR=1.29), higher maternal education level (OR=1.32), urban residence (OR=1.46), and absence of postnatal examination (OR=1.24). The rates of timely complementary feeding were higher for mothers who had more antenatal visits (OR=0.57), and for those who watched television (OR=0.75). Conclusions: Revitalization of the Baby Friendly Hospital Initiative in health facilities is recommended. Targeted interventions may be necessary to improve infant feeding practices in mothers who reside in urban areas, are more educated, and are from wealthier households.

Socioeconomic inequality profiles in physical and developmental health from 0-7 years : Australian National Study

Background: Early and persistent exposure to socioeconomic disadvantage impairs children’s health and wellbeing. However, it is unclear at what age health inequalities emerge or whether these relationships vary across ages and outcomes. We address these issues using cross-sectional Australian population data on the physical and developmental health of children at ages 0-1, 2-3, 4-5 and 6-7 years. Methods: 10 physical and developmental health outcomes were assessed in 2004 and 2006 for two cohorts each comprising around 5000 children. Socioeconomic position was measured as a composite of parental education, occupation and household income. Results: Lower socioeconomic position was associated with increased odds for poor outcomes. For physical health outcomes and socio-emotional competence, associations were similar across age groups and were consistent with either threshold effects (for poor general health, special healthcare needs and socio-emotional competence) or gradient effects (for illness with wheeze, sleep problems and injury). For socio-emotional difficulties, communication, vocabulary and emergent literacy, stronger socioeconomic associations were observed. The patterns were linear or accelerated and varied across ages. Conclusions: From very early childhood, social disadvantage was associated with poorer outcomes across most measures of physical and developmental health and showed no evidence of either strengthening or attenuating at older compared to younger ages. Findings confirm the importance of early childhood as a key focus for health promotion and prevention efforts.

Notification of data breaches under the continuous disclosure regime

Consumer personal information is now a valuable commodity for most corporations. Concomitant with increased value is the expansion of new legal obligations to protect personal information. Mandatory data breach notification laws are an important new development in this regard. Such laws require a corporation that has suffered a data breach, which involves personal information, such as a computer hacking incident, to notify those persons who may have been affected by the breach. Regulators may also need to be notified. Australia currently does not have a mandatory data breach notification law but this may be about to change. The Australian Law Reform Commission has suggested that a data breach notification scheme be implemented through the Privacy Act 1988 (Cth). However, the notification of data breaches may already be required under the continuous disclosure regime stipulated by the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) Listing Rules. Accordingly, this article examines whether the notification of data breaches is a statutory requirement of the existing continuous disclosure regime and whether the ASX should therefore be notified of such incidents.

Workflows, processes and technical solutions for seeding the research data commons

Queensland University of Technology (QUT) completed an Australian National Data Service (ANDS) funded “Seeding the Commons Project” to contribute metadata to Research Data Australia. The project employed two Research Data Librarians from October 2009 through to July 2010. Technical support for the project was provided by QUT’s High Performance Computing and Research Support Specialists. ---------- The project identified and described QUT’s category 1 (ARC / NHMRC) research datasets. Metadata for the research datasets was stored in QUT’s Research Data Repository (Architecta Mediaflux). Metadata which was suitable for inclusion in Research Data Australia was made available to the Australian Research Data Commons (ARDC) in RIF-CS format. ---------- Several workflows and processes were developed during the project. 195 data interviews took place in connection with 424 separate research activities which resulted in the identification of 492 datasets. ---------- The project had a high level of technical support from QUT High Performance Computing and Research Support Specialists who developed the Research Data Librarian interface to the data repository that enabled manual entry of interview data and dataset metadata, creation of relationships between repository objects. The Research Data Librarians mapped the QUT metadata repository fields to RIF-CS and an application was created by the HPC and Research Support Specialists to generate RIF-CS files for harvest by the Australian Research Data Commons (ARDC). ---------- This poster will focus on the workflows and processes established for the project including: ---------- • Interview processes and instruments • Data Ingest from existing systems (including mapping to RIF-CS) • Data entry and the Data Librarian interface to Mediaflux • Verification processes • Mapping and creation of RIF-CS for the ARDC

Vitamin D and injury prevention

Vitamin D, along with calcium, may help decrease the risk of falls and fractures in older adults. Sunlight and other sources of ultraviolet radiation are not recommended because they increase the risk of skin cancers and sun-induced eye disorders. Rather, vitamin D and calcium needs should be met through foods and dietary supplements. As a preventive measure to reduce the risk of falls and fractures, it is recommended that older adults meet the 2005 Dietary Guidelines and consume 1000 IU of vitamin D, preferably as vitamin D3.

Contextualizing the tensions and weaknesses of information privacy and data breach notification laws

Data breach notification laws have detailed numerous failures relating to the protection of personal information that have blighted both corporate and governmental institutions. There are obvious parallels between data breach notification and information privacy law as they both involve the protection of personal information. However, a closer examination of both laws reveals conceptual differences that give rise to vertical tensions between each law and shared horizontal weaknesses within both laws. Tensions emanate from conflicting approaches to the implementation of information privacy law that results in different regimes and the implementation of different types of protections. Shared weaknesses arise from an overt focus on specified types of personal information which results in ‘one size fits all’ legal remedies. The author contends that a greater contextual approach which promotes the importance of social context is required and highlights the effect that contextualization could have on both laws.

Australian data breach notification : avoiding the State/Federal overlap

Mandatory data breach notification has become a matter of increasing concern for law reformers. In Australia, this issue was recently addressed as part of a comprehensive review of privacy law conducted by the Australian Law Reform Commission (ALRC) which recommended a uniform national regime for protecting personal information applicable to both the public and private sectors. As in all federal systems, the distribution of powers between central and state governments poses problems for national consistency. In the authors’ view, a uniform approach to mandatory data breach notification has greater merit than a ‘jurisdiction specific’ approach epitomized by US state-based laws. The US response has given rise to unnecessary overlaps and inefficiencies as demonstrated by a review of different notification triggers and encryption safe harbors. Reviewing the US response, the authors conclude that a uniform approach to data breach notification is inherently more efficient.

Analysis of the effect of negation on information retrieval of medical data

Most information retrieval (IR) models treat the presence of a term within a document as an indication that the document is somehow "about" that term, they do not take into account when a term might be explicitly negated. Medical data, by its nature, contains a high frequency of negated terms - e.g. "review of systems showed no chest pain or shortness of breath". This papers presents a study of the effects of negation on information retrieval. We present a number of experiments to determine whether negation has a significant negative affect on IR performance and whether language models that take negation into account might improve performance. We use a collection of real medical records as our test corpus. Our findings are that negation has some affect on system performance, but this will likely be confined to domains such as medical data where negation is prevalent.

Beyond statistical procedures for predictive modelling: Data mining algorithms and support for university research at QUT

In a seminal data mining article, Leo Breiman [1] argued that to develop effective predictive classification and regression models, we need to move away from the sole dependency on statistical algorithms and embrace a wider toolkit of modeling algorithms that include data mining procedures. Nevertheless, many researchers still rely solely on statistical procedures when undertaking data modeling tasks; the sole reliance on these procedures has lead to the development of irrelevant theory and questionable research conclusions ([1], p.199). We will outline initiatives that the HPC & Research Support group is undertaking to engage researchers with data mining tools and techniques; including a new range of seminars, workshops, and one-on-one consultations covering data mining algorithms, the relationship between data mining and the research cycle, and limitations and problems with these new algorithms. Organisational limitations and restrictions to these initiatives are also discussed.