Assessing resilience of water supply systems under the impacts of climate change

This project was a step forward in developing the scientific basis for a methodology to assess the resilience of water supply systems under the impacts of climate change. The improved measure of resilience developed in this project provides an approach to assess the ability of water supply systems to absorb the pressure due changing climate while sustaining supply, and their speed of recovery in case of failure. The approach developed can be applied to any generic water supply system.

A study of the emotional climate of a science education class for pre-service teachers in Bhutan

This thesis studied the emotional climate (EC) of a pre-service science teachers' class in Bhutan. It examined the types of activities students engaged in and the relationship between the tutor and students whose interactions produced both positive and negative EC in the class. The major finding was that the activities involving students' presentations using video clips and models, group activity, and coteaching valenced the class EC positively. Negative EC was identified when the tutor ignored students' responses, during formal lectures, and when the tutor was uncertain of the subject knowledge. The replication of activities that produce positive EC by other Bhutanese tutors may improve the standard of science education in the country.

Pleistocene climate fluctuations influence phylogeographical patterns in Melomys cervinipes across the mesic forests of eastern Australia

Aim Our aim was to clarify the lineage-level relationships for Melomys cervinipes and its close relatives and investigate whether the patterns of divergence observed for these wet-forest-restricted mammals may be associated with recognized biogeographical barriers. Location Mesic closed forest along the east coast of Australia, from north Queensland to mid-eastern New South Wales. Methods To enable rigorous phylogenetic reconstruction, divergence-date estimation and phylogeographical inference, we analysed DNA sequence and microsatellite data from 307 specimens across the complete distribution of M. cervinipes (45 localities). Results Three divergent genetic lineages were found within M. cervinipes, corresponding to geographically delineated northern, central and southern clades. Additionally, a fourth lineage, comprising M. rubicola and M. capensis, was identified and was most closely related to the northern M. cervinipes lineage. Secondary contact of the northern and central lineages was identified at one locality to the north of the Burdekin Gap. Main conclusions Contemporary processes of repeated habitat fragmentation and contraction, local extinction events and subsequent re-expansion across both small and large areas, coupled with the historical influence of the Brisbane Valley Barrier, the St Lawrence Gap and the Burdekin Gap, have contributed to the present phylogeographical structure within M. cervinipes. Our study highlights the need to sample close to the periphery of putative biogeographical barriers or risk missing vital phylogeographical information that may significantly alter the interpretation of biogeographical hypotheses.

Analysis of the needs of the East Coast cluster regional natural resource management bodies in relation to planning for climate change adaptation

The Climate Change Adaptation for Natural Resource Management (NRM) in East Coast Australia Project aims to foster and support an effective “community of practice” for climate change adaptation within the East Coast Cluster NRM regions that will increase the capacity for adaptation to climate change through enhancements in knowledge and skills and through the establishment of long‐term collaborations. It is being delivered by six consortium research partners: * The University of Queensland (project lead) * Griffith University * University of the Sunshine Coast * CSIRO * New South Wales Office of Environment and Heritage * Queensland Department of Science, IT, Innovation and the Arts (Queensland Herbarium). The project relates to the East Coast Cluster, comprising the six coastal NRM regions and regional bodies between Rockhampton and Sydney: * Fitzroy Basin Association (FBA) * Burnett‐Mary Regional Group (BMRG) * SEQ Catchments (SEQC) * Northern Rivers Catchment Management Authority (CMA) (NRCMA) * Hunter‐Central Rivers CMA (HCRCMA) * Hawkesbury Nepean CMA (HNCMA). The aims of this report are to summarise the needs of the regional bodies in relation to NRM planning for climate change adaptation, and provide a basis for developing the detailed work plan for the research consortium. Two primary methods were used to identify the needs of the regional bodies: (1) document analysis of the existing NRM/ Catchment Action Plans (CAPs) and applications by the regional bodies for funding under Stream 1 of the Regional NRM Planning for Climate Change Fund, and; (2) a needs analysis workshop, held in May 2013 involving representatives from the research consortium partners and the regional bodies. The East Coast Cluster includes five of the ten largest significant urban areas in Australia, world heritage listed natural environments, significant agriculture, mining and extensive grazing. The three NSW CMAs have recently completed strategic level CAPs, with implementation plans to be finalised in 2014/2015. SEQC and FBA are beginning a review of their existing NRM Plans, to be completed in 2014 and 2015 respectively; while BMRG is aiming to produce a NRM and Climate Variability Action Strategy. The regional bodies will receive funding from the Australian Government through the Regional NRM Planning for Climate Change Fund (NRM Fund) to improve regional planning for climate change and help guide the location of carbon and biodiversity activities, including wildlife corridors. The bulk of the funding will be available for activities in 2013/2014, with smaller amounts available in subsequent years. Most regional bodies aim to have a large proportion of the planning work complete by the end of 2014. In addition, NSW CMAs are undergoing major structural change and will be incorporated into semi‐autonomous statutory Local Land Services bodies from 2014. Boundaries will align with local government boundaries and there will be significant change in staff and structures. The regional bodies in the cluster have a varying degree of climate knowledge. All plans recognise climate change as a key driver of change, but there are few specific actions or targets addressing climate change. Regional bodies also have varying capacity to analyse large volumes of spatial or modelling data. Due to the complex nature of natural resource management, all regional bodies work with key stakeholders (e.g. local government, industry groups, and community groups) to deliver NRM outcomes. Regional bodies therefore require project outputs that can be used directly in stakeholder engagement activities, and are likely to require some form of capacity building associated with each of the outputs to maximise uptake. Some of the immediate needs of the regional bodies are a summary of information or tools that are able to be used immediately; and a summary of the key outputs and milestone dates for the project, to facilitate alignment of planning activities with research outputs. A project framework is useful to show the linkages between research elements and the relevance of the research to the adaptive management cycle for NRM planning in which the regional bodies are engaged. A draft framework is proposed to stimulate and promote discussion on research elements and linkages; this will be refined during and following the development of the detailed project work plan. The regional bodies strongly emphasised the need to incorporate a shift to a systems based resilience approach to NRM planning, and that approach is included in the framework. The regional bodies identified that information on climate projections would be most useful at regional and subregional scale, to feed into scenario planning and impact analysis. Outputs should be ‘engagement ready’ and there is a need for capacity building to enable regional bodies to understand and use the projections in stakeholder engagement. There was interest in understanding the impacts of climate change projections on ecosystems (e.g. ecosystem shift), and the consequent impacts on the production of ecosystem services. It was emphasised that any modelling should be able to be used by the regional bodies with their stakeholders to allow for community input (i.e. no black box models). The online regrowth benefits tool was of great interest to the regional bodies, as spatial mapping of carbon farming opportunities would be relevant to their funding requirements. The NSW CMAs identified an interest in development of the tool for NSW vegetation types. Needs relating to socio‐economic information included understanding the socio‐economic determinants of carbon farming uptake and managing community expectations. A need was also identified to understand the vulnerability of industry groups as well as community to climate change impacts, and in particular understanding how changes in the flow of ecosystem services would interact with the vulnerability of these groups to impact on the linked ecologicalsocio‐economic system. Responses to disasters (particularly flooding and storm surge) and recovery responses were also identified as being of interest. An ecosystem services framework was highlighted as a useful approach to synthesising biophysical and socioeconomic information in the context of a systems based, resilience approach to NRM planning. A need was identified to develop processes to move towards such an approach to NRM planning from the current asset management approach. Examples of best practice in incorporating climate science into planning, using scenarios for stakeholder engagement in planning and processes for institutionalising learning were also identified as cross‐cutting needs. The over‐arching theme identified was the need for capacity building for the NRM bodies to best use the information available at any point in time. To this end a planners working group has been established to support the building of a network of informed and articulate NRM agents with knowledge of current climate science and capacity to use current tools to engage stakeholders in NRM planning for climate change adaptation. The planners working group would form the core group of the community of practice, with the broader group of stakeholders participating when activities aligned with their interests. In this way, it is anticipated that the Project will contribute to building capacity within the wider community to effectively plan for climate change adaptation.

An application of an extended theory of planned behaviour to understand drivers' compliance with the school zones speed limit in Australia and Malaysia

This research investigated individual and situational factors that influence driver compliance with the school zones speed limit in Australia and Malaysia. Despite all the countermeasures implemented in these two countries, driver compliance with the speed limit in school zones is still poor. The findings of the research provided support for the application of the Theory of Planned Behaviour to understand and therefore influence drivers' intention to comply with the school zones speed limit in both Australia and Malaysia. The research also revealed that mindfulness, a construct rarely used in road safety before, directly influenced Australian drivers' intention to comply, while habit influenced intention to comply in Malaysia. The research raised important theoretical and cross-cultural issues for future research and highlighted the need to increase the visibility of school zones with the use of more noticeable traffic control devices.

Conceptualising, evaluating and reporting social resilience in vulnerable regional and remote communities facing climate change in tropical Queensland : marine and tropical sciences research facility transition project final report

Regional and remote communities in tropical Queensland are among Australia’s most vulnerable in the face of climate change. At the same time, these socially and economically vulnerable regions house some of Australia’s most significant biodiversity values. Past approaches to terrestrial biodiversity management have focused on tackling biophysical interventions through the use of biophysical knowledge. An equally important focus should be placed on building regional-scale community resilience if some of the worst biodiversity impacts of climate change are to be avoided or mitigated. Despite its critical need, more systemic or holistic approaches to natural resource management have been rarely trialed and tested in a structured way. Currently, most strategic interventions in improving regional community resilience are ad hoc, not theory-based and short term. Past planning approaches have not been durable, nor have they been well informed by clear indicators. Research into indicators for community resilience has been poorly integrated within adaptive planning and management cycles. This project has aimed to resolve this problem by: * Reviewing the community and social resilience and adaptive planning literature to reconceptualise an improved framework for applying community resilience concepts; * Harvesting and extending work undertaken in MTSRF Phase 1 to identifying the learnings emerging from past MTSRF research; * Distilling these findings to identify new theoretical and practical approaches to the application of community resilience in natural resource use and management; * Reconsidering the potential interplay between a region’s biophysical and social planning processes, with a focus on exploring spatial tools to communicate climate change risk and its consequent environmental, economic and social impacts, and; * Trialling new approaches to indicator development and adaptive planning to improve community resilience, using a sub-regional pilot in the Wet Tropics. In doing so, we also looked at ways to improve the use and application of relevant spatial information. Our theoretical review drew upon the community development, psychology and emergency management literature to better frame the concept of community resilience relative to aligned concepts of social resilience, vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Firstly, we consider community resilience as a concept that can be considered at a range of scales (e.g. regional, locality, communities of interest, etc.). We also consider that overall resilience at higher scales will be influenced by resilience levels at lesser scales (inclusive of the resilience of constituent institutions, families and individuals). We illustrate that, at any scale, resilience and vulnerability are not necessarily polar opposites, and that some understanding of vulnerability is important in determining resilience. We position social resilience (a concept focused on the social characteristics of communities and individuals) as an important attribute of community resilience, but one that needs to be considered alongside economic, natural resource, capacity-based and governance attributes. The findings from the review of theory and MTSRF Phase 1 projects were synthesized and refined by the wider project team. Five predominant themes were distilled from this literature, research review and an expert analysis. They include the findings that: 1. Indicators have most value within an integrated and adaptive planning context, requiring an active co-research relationship between community resilience planners, managers and researchers if real change is to be secured; 2. Indicators of community resilience form the basis for planning for social assets and the resilience of social assets is directly related the longer term resilience of natural assets. This encourages and indeed requires the explicit development and integration of social planning within a broader natural resource planning and management framework; 3. Past indicator research and application has not provided a broad picture of the key attributes of community resilience and there have been many attempts to elicit lists of “perfect” indicators that may never be useful within the time and resource limitations of real world regional planning and management. We consider that modeling resilience for proactive planning and prediction purposes requires the consideration of simple but integrated clusters of attributes; 4. Depending on time and resources available for planning and management, the combined use of well suited indicators and/or other lesser “lines of evidence” is more flexible than the pursuit of perfect indicators, and that; 5. Index-based, collaborative and participatory approaches need to be applied to the development, refinement and reporting of indicators over longer time frames. We trialed the practical application of these concepts via the establishment of a collaborative regional alliance of planners and managers involved in the development of climate change adaptation strategies across tropical Queensland (the Gulf, Wet Tropics, Cape York and Torres Strait sub-regions). A focus on the Wet Tropics as a pilot sub-region enabled other Far North Queensland sub-region’s to participate and explore the potential extension of this approach. The pilot activities included: * Further exploring ways to innovatively communicate the region’s likely climate change scenarios and possible environmental, economic and social impacts. We particularly looked at using spatial tools to overlay climate change risks to geographic communities and social vulnerabilities within those communities; * Developing a cohesive first pass of a State of the Region-style approach to reporting community resilience, inclusive of regional economic viability, community vitality, capacitybased and governance attributes. This framework integrated a literature review, expert (academic and community) and alliance-based contributions; and * Early consideration of critical strategies that need to be included in unfolding regional planning activities with Far North Queensland. The pilot assessment finds that rural, indigenous and some urban populations in the Wet Tropics are highly vulnerable and sensitive to climate change and may require substantial support to adapt and become more resilient. This assessment finds that under current conditions (i.e. if significant adaptation actions are not taken) the Wet Tropics as a whole may be seriously impacted by the most significant features of climate change and extreme climatic events. Without early and substantive action, this could result in declining social and economic wellbeing and natural resource health. Of the four attributes we consider important to understanding community resilience, the Wet Tropics region is particularly vulnerable in two areas; specifically its economic vitality and knowledge, aspirations and capacity. The third and fourth attributes, community vitality and institutional governance are relatively resilient but are vulnerable in some key respects. In regard to all four of these attributes, however, there is some emerging capacity to manage the possible shocks that may be associated with the impacts of climate change and extreme climatic events. This capacity needs to be carefully fostered and further developed to achieve broader community resilience outcomes. There is an immediate need to build individual, household, community and sectoral resilience across all four attribute groups to enable populations and communities in the Wet Tropics region to adapt in the face of climate change. Preliminary strategies of importance to improve regional community resilience have been identified. These emerging strategies also have been integrated into the emerging Regional Development Australia Roadmap, and this will ensure that effective implementation will be progressed and coordinated. They will also inform emerging strategy development to secure implementation of the FNQ 2031 Regional Plan. Of most significance in our view, this project has taken a co-research approach from the outset with explicit and direct importance and influence within the region’s formal planning and management arrangements. As such, the research: * Now forms the foundations of the first attempt at “Social Asset” planning within the Wet Tropics Regional NRM Plan review; * Is assisting Local government at regional scale to consider aspects of climate change adaptation in emerging planning scheme/community planning processes; * Has partnered the State government (via the Department of Infrastructure and Planning and Regional Managers Coordination Network Chair) in progressing the Climate Change adaptation agenda set down within the FNQ 2031 Regional Plan; * Is informing new approaches to report on community resilience within the GBRMPA Outlook reporting framework; and * Now forms the foundation for the region’s wider climate change adaptation priorities in the Regional Roadmap developed by Regional Development Australia. Through the auspices of Regional Development Australia, the outcomes of the research will now inform emerging negotiations concerning a wider package of climate change adaptation priorities with State and Federal governments. Next stage research priorities are also being developed to enable an ongoing alliance between researchers and the region’s climate change response.

Assessing community resilience to climate change

Settlements and communities in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) are highly vulnerable to climate change and face an uncertain social, economic and environmental future. The concept of community resilience is gaining momentum as stakeholders and institutions seek to better understand the social, economic and governance factors which affect community capacity to adapt in the face of climate change. This paper defines a framework to benchmark community resilience and applies it to a case study in the Wet Tropics in tropical Queensland within the GBR catchment. It finds that rural, indigenous and some urban populations are highly vulnerable and sensitive to climate change, particularly in terms of economic vitality, community knowledge, aspirations and capacity for adaptation. Without early and substantive action, this could result in declining social and economic wellbeing and natural resource health. Capacity to manage the possible shocks associated with the impacts of climate change and extreme climatic events is emerging and needs to be carefully fostered and further developed to achieve broader community resilience outcomes. Better information about what actions, policies and arrangements build community resilience and mobilise adaptive capacity in the face of climate change is needed.

MiniOrb : a sensor interaction platform for indoor climate preferences [Extended Abstract]

We introduce the MiniOrb platform, a combined sensor and interaction platform built to understand and encourage the gathering of data around personal indoor climate preferences in office environments. The platform consists of a sensor device, gathering localised environmental data and an attached tangible interaction and ambient display device. This device allows users to understand their local environment and record preferences with regards to their preferred level of office comfort. In addition to the tangible device we built a web-based mobile application that allowed users to record comfort preferences through a different interface. This paper describes the design goals and technical setup of the MiniOrb platform.

Evaluating the use of ambient and tangible interaction approaches for personal indoor climate preferences [Extended Abstract]

In this paper we describe the preliminary results of a field study which evaluated the use of MiniOrb, a system that employs ambient and tangible interaction mechanisms to allow inhabitants of office environments to report on subjectively perceived office comfort levels. The purpose of this study was to explore the role of ubiquitous computing in the individual control of indoor climate and specifically answer the question to what extent ambient and tangible interaction mechanisms are suited for the task of capturing individual comfort preferences in a non-obtrusive manner. We outline the preliminary results of an in-situ trial of the system.

Discussion on the wind climate of Kuwait and Dubai

Historical wind data for Kuwait and Dubai have been analysed to determine the design wind speed for the region. Kuwait and Dubai are located near the northern and southern end of the Persian Gulf respectively. The winds in this region just north of the Tropic of Capricorn are dominated by the Shamal, literally 'north' in Arabic. The winds have traditional Bedouin names such as Al-Haffar (the driller), and Barih Thorayya (morning star). The Al-Dabaran is generally the strongest Shamal in late summer, and can last up to 40 days bringing sand and duststorms.

Driver’s over-trust on Advanced Driver Assistance Systems on passively protected railway crossings

Passively protected railway crossings are a major rail safety issue in Australia. Such crossings cannot be upgraded as such crossings are too numerous and the cost involved is prohibitive. Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) have been shown to improve road safety and are widely used. These systems could be a solution to improve safety of passively protected crossings at a lower cost. Such complementary ADAS could result in driver’s over-trust due to the absence of Humane Machine Interface reflecting the quality of the information or the state of the ADAS (failure status). This paper demonstrates that driver’s exposure to crossing exhibiting fail-safe and non-fail safe properties could result in improperly allocating trust between technologies. We conducted a driving simulator study where participants (N=58) were exposed to three types of level crossing warning system on passive and active crossings. The results show that a significant proportion of participants over-trust the ADAS. Such drivers exhibit the same driving performance with the ADAS as when exposed to infrastructure based active crossing protection. They do not take the necessary safety precautions as they have a faster speed approach, reduced number of gaze toward the rail tracks and fail to stop at the crossing.

Emotional climate and high quality learning experiences in science teacher education

The role of emotion during learning encounters in science teacher education is under-researched and under-theorized. In this case study we explore the emotional climates, that is, the collective states of emotional arousal, of a preservice secondary science education class to illuminate practice for producing and reproducing high quality learning experiences for preservice science teachers. Theories related to the sociology of emotions informed our analyses from data sources such as preservice teachers’ perceptions of the emotional climate of their class, emotional facial expressions, classroom conversations, and cogenerative dialogue. The major outcome from our analyses was that even though preservice teachers reported high positive emotional climate during the professor’s science demonstrations, they also valued the professor’s in the moment reflections on her teaching that were associated with low emotional climate ratings. We co-relate emotional climate data and preservice teachers’ comments during cogenerative dialogue to expand our understanding of high quality experiences and emotional climate in science teacher education. Our study also contributes refinements to research perspectives on emotional climate.

Using mathematical modelling to evaluate drivers and predict trajectories of HIV and STI epidemics in South East Asian and Australian populations

Objective To evaluate the potential impact of the current global economic crisis (GEC) on the spread of HIV. Design To evaluate the impact of the economic downturn we studied two distinct HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia: the generalized epidemic in Cambodia where incidence is declining and the epidemic in Papua New Guinea (PNG) which is in an expansion phase. Methods Major HIV-related risk factors that may change due to the GEC were identified and a dynamic mathematical transmission model was developed and used to forecast HIV prevalence, diagnoses, and incidence in Cambodia and PNG over the next 3 years. Results In Cambodia, the total numbers of HIV diagnoses are not expected to be largely affected. However, an estimated increase of up to 10% in incident cases of HIV, due to potential changes in behavior, may not be observed by the surveillance system. In PNG, HIV incidence and diagnoses could be more affected by the GEC, resulting in respective increases of up to 17% and 11% over the next 3 years. Decreases in VCT and education programs are the factors that may be of greatest concern in both settings. A reduction in the rollout of antiretroviral therapy could increase the number of AIDS-related deaths (by up to 7.5% after 3 years). Conclusions The GEC is likely to have a modest impact on HIV epidemics. However, there are plausible conditions under which the economic downturns can noticeably influence epidemic trends. This study highlights the high importance of maintaining funding for HIV programs.

The geographical co-distribution and socio-ecological drivers of childhood pneumonia and diarrhoea in Queensland, Australia

This study aimed to explore the spatiotemporal patterns, geographic co-distribution, and socio-ecological drivers of childhood pneumonia and diarrhea in Queensland. A Bayesian conditional autoregressive model was used to quantify the impacts of socio-ecological factors on both childhood pneumonia and diarrhea at a postal area level. A distinct seasonality of childhood pneumonia and diarrhea was found. Childhood pneumonia and diarrhea mainly distributed in northwest of Queensland. Mount Isa was the high-risk cluster where childhood pneumonia and diarrhea co-distributed. Emergency department visits (EDVs) for pneumonia increased by 3% per 10-mm increase in monthly average rainfall, in wet seasons. In comparison, a 10-mm increase in monthly average rainfall may increase 4% of EDVs for diarrhea. Monthly average temperature was negatively associated with EDVs for childhood diarrhea, in wet seasons. Low socioeconomic index for areas (SEIFA) was associated with high EDVs for childhood pneumonia. Future pneumonia and diarrhea prevention and control measures in Queensland should focus more on Mount Isa.

Factors contributing to crashes among young drivers

Young drivers are the group of drivers most likely to crash. There are a number of factors that contribute to the high crash risk experienced by these drivers. While some of these factors are intrinsic to the young driver, such as their age, gender or driving skill, others relate to social factors and when and how often they drive. This article reviews the factors that affect the risk of young drivers crashing to enable a fuller understanding of why this risk is so high in order to assist in developing effective countermeasures.