Parameter estimation of structural commodity price models

Commodity price modeling is normally approached in terms of structural time-series models, in which the different components (states) have a financial interpretation. The parameters of these models can be estimated using maximum likelihood. This approach results in a non-linear parameter estimation problem and thus a key issue is how to obtain reliable initial estimates. In this paper, we focus on the initial parameter estimation problem for the Schwartz-Smith two-factor model commonly used in asset valuation. We propose the use of a two-step method. The first step considers a univariate model based only on the spot price and uses a transfer function model to obtain initial estimates of the fundamental parameters. The second step uses the estimates obtained in the first step to initialize a re-parameterized state-space-innovations based estimator, which includes information related to future prices. The second step refines the estimates obtained in the first step and also gives estimates of the remaining parameters in the model. This paper is part tutorial in nature and gives an introduction to aspects of commodity price modeling and the associated parameter estimation problem.

Structural identification of hindered amine light stabilisers in coil coatings using electrospray ionisation tandem mass spectrometry

Hindered amine light stabilisers (HALS) are the most effective antioxidants currently available for polymer systems in post-production, in-service applications, yet the mechanism of their action is still not fully understood. Structural characterisation of HALS in polymer matrices, particularly the identification of structural modifications brought about by oxidative conditions, is critical to aid mechanistic understanding of the prophylactic effects of these molecules. In this work, electrospray ionisation tandem mass spectrometry (ESI-MS/MS) was applied to the analysis of a suite of commercially available 2,2,6,6-tetramethylpiperidine-based HALS. Fragmentation mechanisms for the \[M + H](+) ions are proposed, which provide a rationale for the product ions observed in the MS/MS and MS(3) mass spectra of N-H, N-CH(3), N-C(O)CH(3) and N-OR containing HALS (where R is an alkyl substituent). A common product ion at m/z 123 was identified for the group of antioxidants containing N-H, N-CH3 or N-C(0)CH3 functionality, and this product ion was employed in precursor ion scans on a triple quadrupole mass spectrometer to identify the HALS species present in a crude extract from of a polyester-based coil coating. Using MS/MS, two degradation products were unambiguously identified. This technique provides a simple and selective approach to monitoring HALS structures within complex matrices. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Predicting emotional exhaustion among haemodialysis nurses : a structural equation model using Kanter’s structural empowerment theory

Aim To test an explanatory model of the relationships between the nursing work environment, job satisfaction, job stress and emotional exhaustion for haemodialysis nurses, drawing on Kanter's theory of organizational empowerment. Background Understanding the organizational predictors of burnout (emotional exhaustion) in haemodialysis nurses is critical for staff retention and improving nurse and patient outcomes. Previous research has demonstrated high levels of emotional exhaustion among haemodialysis nurses, yet the relationships between nurses' work environment, job satisfaction, stress and emotional exhaustion in this population are poorly understood. Design A cross-sectional online survey. Methods 417 nurses working in haemodialysis units completed an online survey between October 2011–April 2012 using validated measures of the work environment, job satisfaction, job stress and emotional exhaustion. Results Overall, the structural equation model demonstrated adequate fit and we found partial support for the hypothesized relationships. Nurses' work environment had a direct positive effect on job satisfaction, explaining 88% of the variance. Greater job satisfaction, in turn, predicted lower job stress, explaining 82% of the variance. Job satisfaction also had an indirect effect on emotional exhaustion by mitigating job stress. However, job satisfaction did not have a direct effect on emotional exhaustion. Conclusion The work environment of haemodialysis nurses is pivotal to the development of job satisfaction. Nurses' job satisfaction also predicts their level of job stress and emotional exhaustion. Our findings suggest staff retention can be improved by creating empowering work environments that promote job satisfaction among haemodialysis nurses.

Vertical displacement measurement using fibre Bragg grating (FBG) sensors for structural health monitoring of bridges

This thesis developed a practical, cost effective, easy-to-use method for measuring the vertical displacements of bridges using fiber Bragg grating (FBG) sensors, which includes the curvature and inclination approaches. These approaches were validated by the numerical simulation tests on a full scale bridge and the laboratory-based tests. In doing so, a novel frictionless FBG inclination sensor with extremely high sensitivity and resolution has also been developed and validated.

A vibrational spectroscopic study of the phosphate mineral rimkorolgite (Mg,Mn2+)5(Ba, Sr)(PO4)4·8H2O from Kovdor massif, Kola Peninsula, Russia

We have studied aspect of the molecular structure of the phosphate mineral rimkorolgite from Zheleznyi iron mine, Kovdor massif, Kola Peninsula, Russia, using SEM with EDX and vibrational spectroscopy. Qualitative chemical analysis shows a homogeneous phase, composed by P, Mg, Ba, Mn and Ca. Small amounts of Si were also observed. An intense Raman peak at 975 cm−1 is assigned to the PO43− ν1 symmetric stretching mode. The Raman band at 964 cm−1 is attributed to the HPO42− ν1 symmetric stretching vibration. Raman bands observed at 1016, 1035, 1052, 1073, 1105 and 1135 cm−1 are attributed to the ν3 antisymmetric stretching vibrations of the HPO42− and PO43− units. Complexity in the spectra of the phosphate bending region is observed. The broad Raman band at 3272 cm−1 is assigned to the water stretching vibration. Vibrational spectroscopy enables aspects on the molecular structure of rimkorolgite to be undertaken.

Deterministic control of structural and optical properties of plasma-grown vertical graphene nanosheet networks via nitrogen gas variation

The effect of nitrogen on the growth of vertically oriented graphene nanosheets on catalyst-free silicon and glass substrates in a plasma-assisted process is studied. Different concentrations of nitrogen were found to act as versatile control knobs that could be used to tailor the length, number density and structural properties of the nanosheets. Nanosheets with different structural characteristics exhibit markedly different optical properties. The nanosheet samples were treated with a bovine serum albumin protein solution to investigate the effects of this variation on the optical properties for biosensing through confocal micro-Raman spectroscopy and UV-Vis spectrophotometry. © 2012 Optical Society of America.

Influence of jet inclination on structural loading in an experimentally simulated microburst

Steady and pulsed flow stationary impinging jets have been employed to simulate the wind field produced by a thunderstorm microburst. The effect on the low level wind field due to jet inclination with respect to the impingement surface has been studied. A single point velocity time history has been compared to the full-scale Andrews AFB microburst for model validation. It was found that for steady flow, jet inclination increased the radial extent of high winds but did not increase the magnitude of these winds when compared to the perpendicular impingement case. It was found that for inclined pulsed flow the design wind conditions could increase compared to perpendicular impingement. It was found that the location of peak winds was affected by varying the outlet conditions.

Composition-dependent structural and electronic properties of α-(Si1−xCx)3N4

The highly unusual structural and electronic properties of the α-phase of (Si1-xCx)3N4 are determined by density functional theory (DFT) calculations using the Generalized Gradient Approximation (GGA). The electronic properties of α-(Si 1-xCx)3N4 are found to be very close to those of α-C3N4. The bandgap of α-(Si 1-xCx)3N4 significantly decreases as C atoms are substituted by Si atoms (in most cases, smaller than that of either α-Si3N4 or α-C3N4) and attains a minimum when the ratio of C to Si is close to 2. On the other hand, the bulk modulus of α-(Si1-xCx)3N 4 is found to be closer to that of α-Si3N 4 than of α-C3N4. Plasma-assisted synthesis experiments of CNx and SiCN films are performed to verify the accuracy of the DFT calculations. TEM measurements confirm the calculated lattice constants, and FT-IR/XPS analysis confirms the formation and lengths of C-N and Si-N bonds. The results of DFT calculations are also in a remarkable agreement with the experiments of other authors.

Structural, optical and electrical properties of Al-doped ZnO transparent conducting oxide for solar cell applications

Al-doped zinc oxide (AZO) thin films are deposited onto glass substrates using radio-frequency reactive magnetron sputtering and the improvements in their physical properties by post-synthesis thermal treatment are reported. X-ray diffraction spectra show that the structure of films can be controlled by adjusting the annealing temperatures, with the best crystallinity obtained at 400°C under a nitrogen atmosphere. These films exhibit improved quality and better optical transmittance as indicated by the UV-Vis spectra. Furthermore, the sheet resistivity is found to decrease from 1.87 × 10-3 to 5.63 × 10-4Ω⋅cm and the carrier mobility increases from 6.47 to 13.43 cm2 ⋅ V-1 ⋅ s-1 at the optimal annealing temperature. Our results demonstrate a simple yet effective way in controlling the structural, optical and electrical properties of AZO thin films, which is important for solar cell applications.

Structural, electronic, and optical properties of wurtzite and rocksalt InN under pressure

Structural stability, electronic, and optical properties of InN under high pressure are studied using the first-principles calculations. The lattice constants and electronic band structure are found consistent with the available experimental and theoretical values. The pressure of the wurtzite-to-rocksalt structural transition is 13.4 GPa, which is in an excellent agreement with the most recent experimental values. The optical characteristics reproduce the experimental data thus justifying the feasibility of our theoretical predictions of the optical properties of InN at high pressures.

Plasma nanoscience : from controlled complexity to practical simplicity

Plasma Nanoscience is a multidisciplinary research field which aims to elucidate the specific roles, purposes, and benefits of the ionized gas environment in assembling and processing nanoscale objects in natural, laboratory and technological situations. Compared to neutral gas-based routes, in low-temperature weakly-ionized plasmas there is another level of complexity related to the necessity of creating and sustaining a suitable degree of ionization and a much larger number of species generated in the gas phase. The thinner the nanotubes, the stronger is the quantum confinement of electrons and more unique size-dependent quantum effects can emerge. Furthermore, due to a very high mobility of electrons, the surfaces are at a negative potential compared to the plasma bulk. Therefore, there are non-uniform electric fields within the plasma sheath. The electric field lines start in the plasma bulk and converge to the sharp tips of the developing one-dimensional nanostructures.

A control theoretic paradigm for cell signaling networks : a simple complexity for a sensitive robustness

The fields of molecular biology and cell biology are being flooded with complex genomic and proteomic datasets of large dimensions. We now recognize that each molecule in the cell and tissue can no longer be viewed as an isolated entity. Instead, each molecule must be considered as one member of an interacting network. Consequently, there is an urgent need for mathematical models to understand the behavior of cell signaling networks in health and in disease.

Structural evolution of nanocrystalline silicon thin films synthesized in high-density, low-temperature reactive plasmas

Silicon thin films with a variable content of nanocrystalline phase were deposited on single-crystal silicon and glass substrates by inductively coupled plasma-assisted chemical vapor deposition using a silane precursor without any hydrogen dilution in the low substrate temperature range from 100 to 300 °C. The structural and optical properties of the deposited films are systematically investigated by Raman spectroscopy, x-ray diffraction, Fourier transform infrared absorption spectroscopy, UV/vis spectroscopy, scanning electron microscopy and high-resolution transmission electron microscopy. It is shown that the structure of the silicon thin films evolves from the purely amorphous phase to the nanocrystalline phase when the substrate temperature is increased from 100 to 150 °C. It is found that the variations of the crystalline fraction fc, bonded hydrogen content CH, optical bandgap ETauc, film microstructure and growth rate Rd are closely related to the substrate temperature. In particular, at a substrate temperature of 300 °C, the nanocrystalline Si thin films of our interest feature a high growth rate of 1.63nms-1, a low hydrogen content of 4.0at.%, a high crystalline fraction of 69.1%, a low optical bandgap of 1.55eV and an almost vertically aligned columnar structure with a mean grain size of approximately 10nm. It is also shown that the low-temperature synthesis of nanocrystalline Si thin films without any hydrogen dilution is attributed to the outstanding dissociation ability of the high-density inductively coupled plasmas and effective plasma-surface interactions during the growth process. Our results offer a highly effective yet simple and environmentally friendly technique to synthesize high-quality nanocrystalline Si films, vitally needed for the development of new-generation solar cells and other emerging nanotechnologies.

Synthesis and structural properties of Al-C-N-O composite thin films

Al-C-N-O composite thin films have been synthesized by radio frequency reactive diode sputtering of an aluminum target in plasmas of N2+O2+CH4 gas mixtures. The chemical structure and composition of the films have been investigated by means of infrared and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. The results reveal the formation of C-N, Al-C, Al-N and Al-O bonds. The X-ray diffraction pattern suggests that the films are of nanometer composite material and contain predominately crystalline grains of hexagonal AlN and α-Al2O3. A good thermal stability of the composite has been confirmed by the annealing treatment at temperatures up to 600 °C.

A coupled SPH-DEM model for micro-scale structural deformations of plant cells during drying

A single plant cell was modeled with smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) and a discrete element method (DEM) to study the basic micromechanics that govern the cellular structural deformations during drying. This two-dimensional particle-based model consists of two components: a cell fluid model and a cell wall model. The cell fluid was approximated to a highly viscous Newtonian fluid and modeled with SPH. The cell wall was treated as a stiff semi-permeable solid membrane with visco-elastic properties and modeled as a neo-Hookean solid material using a DEM. Compared to existing meshfree particle-based plant cell models, we have specifically introduced cell wall–fluid attraction forces and cell wall bending stiffness effects to address the critical shrinkage characteristics of the plant cells during drying. Also, a moisture domain-based novel approach was used to simulate drying mechanisms within the particle scheme. The model performance was found to be mainly influenced by the particle resolution, initial gap between the outermost fluid particles and wall particles and number of particles in the SPH influence domain. A higher order smoothing kernel was used with adaptive smoothing length to improve the stability and accuracy of the model. Cell deformations at different states of cell dryness were qualitatively and quantitatively compared with microscopic experimental findings on apple cells and a fairly good agreement was observed with some exceptions. The wall–fluid attraction forces and cell wall bending stiffness were found to be significantly improving the model predictions. A detailed sensitivity analysis was also done to further investigate the influence of wall–fluid attraction forces, cell wall bending stiffness, cell wall stiffness and the particle resolution. This novel meshfree based modeling approach is highly applicable for cellular level deformation studies of plant food materials during drying, which characterize large deformations.