528 resultados para PROBABILITY


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Abstract. 1. Learning may enable insects to obtain nectar from flowers more efficiently. Learning in nectar foraging has been shown primarily in studies of bees and butterflies. Here, learning is demonstrated in the nectar foraging behaviour of a noctuid moth, Helicoverpa armigera. 2. The present studies show that: (1) previous experience with a flowering host species increases the probability of that species being selected for nectar foraging, and (2) previous experience of a particular flower type (food source at bottom or top of the corolla tube) increases the likelihood of the food source being found when that flower type is being searched. 3. The implications of these findings for understanding the pattern of oviposition observed in wild populations of this important pest species are discussed.

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Road safety barriers are used to redirect traffic at roadside work-zones. When filled with water, these barriers are able to withstand low to moderate impact speeds up to 50kmh-1. Despite this feature, Portable Water-filled barriers (PWFB) face challenges such as large lateral displacements, tearing and breakage during impact; especially at higher speeds. This study explores the use of composite action to enhance the crashworthiness of PWFBs and enable their usage at higher speeds. Initially, energy absorption capability of water in PWFB is investigated. Then, composite action of the PWFB with the introduction of steel frame is considered to evaluate its enhanced impact performance. Findings of the study show that the initial height of the impact must be lower than the free surface level of water in a PWFB in order for the water to provide significant crash energy absorption. In general, an impact of a road barrier with 80% filled is a good estimation. Furthermore, the addition of a composite structure greatly reduces the probability of tearing by decreasing the strain and impact energy transferred to the shell container. This allows the water to remain longer in the barrier to absorb energy via inertial displacements and sloshing response. Information from this research will aid in the design of new generation roadside safety structures aimed to increase safety in modern roadways.

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Experimentally, hydrogen-free diamond-like carbon (DLC) films were assembled by means of pulsed laser deposition (PLD), where energetic small-carbon-clusters were deposited on the substrate. In this paper, the chemisorption of energetic C2 and C10 clusters on diamond (001)-( 2×1) surface was investigated by molecular dynamics simulation. The influence of cluster size and the impact energy on the structure character of the deposited clusters is mainly addressed. The impact energy was varied from a few tens eV to 100 eV. The chemisorption of C10 was found to occur only when its incident energy is above a threshold value ( E th). While, the C2 cluster was easily to adsorb on the surface even at much lower incident energy. With increasing the impact energy, the structures of the deposited C2 and C10 are different from the free clusters. Finally, the growth of films synthesized by energetic C2 and C10 clusters were simulated. The statistics indicate the C2 cluster has high probability of adsorption and films assembled of C2 present slightly higher SP3 fraction than that of C10-films, especially at higher impact energy and lower substrate temperature. Our result supports the experimental findings. Moreover, the simulation underlines the deposition mechanism at atomic scale.

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In this paper, the initial stage of films assembled by energetic C36 fullerenes on diamond (001)–(2 × 1) surface at low-temperature was investigated by molecular dynamics simulation using the Brenner potential. The incident energy was first uniformly distributed within an energy interval 20–50 eV, which was known to be the optimum energy range for chemisorption of single C36 on diamond (001) surface. More than one hundred C36 cages were impacted one after the other onto the diamond surface by randomly selecting their orientation as well as the impact position relative to the surface. The growth of films was found to be in three-dimensional island mode, where the deposited C36 acted as building blocks. The study of film morphology shows that it retains the structure of a free C36 cage, which is consistent with Low Energy Cluster Beam Deposition (LECBD) experiments. The adlayer is composed of many C36-monomers as well as the covalently bonded C36 dimers and trimers which is quite different from that of C20 fullerene-assembled film, where a big polymerlike chain was observed due to the stronger interaction between C20 cages. In addition, the chemisorption probability of C36 fullerenes is decreased with increasing coverage because the interaction between these clusters is weaker than that between the cluster and the surface. When the incident energy is increased to 40–65 eV, the chemisorption probability is found to increased and more dimers and trimers as well as polymerlike-C36 were observed on the deposited films. Furthermore, C36 film also showed high thermal stability even when the temperature was raised to 1500 K.

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The impact induced chemisorption of hydrocarbon molecules (CH3 and CH2) on H-terminated diamond (001)-(2x1) surface was investigated by molecular dynamics simulation using the many-body Brenner potential. The deposition dynamics of the CH3 radical at impact energies of 0.1-50 eV per molecule was studied and the energy threshold for chemisorption was calculated. The impact-induced decomposition of hydrogen atoms and the dimer opening mechanism on the surface was investigated. Furthermore, the probability for dimer opening event induced by chemisorption of CH, was simulated by randomly varying the impact position as well as the orientation of the molecule relative to the surface. Finally, the energetic hydrocarbons were modeled, slowing down one after the other to simulate the initial fabrication of diamond-like carbon (DLC) films. The structure characteristic in synthesized films with different hydrogen flux was studied. Our results indicate that CH3, CH2 and H are highly reactive and important species in diamond growth. Especially, the fraction of C-atoms in the film having sp(3) hybridization will be enhanced in the presence of H atoms, which is in good agreement with experimental observations. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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The adsorption of low-energy C20 isomers on diamond (0 0 1)–(2×1) surface was investigated by molecular dynamics simulation using the Brenner potential. The energy dependence of chemisorption characteristic was studied. We found that there existed an energy threshold for chemisorption of C20 to occur. Between 10 and 20 eV, the C20 fullerene has high probability of chemisorption and the adsorbed cage retains its original structure, which supports the experimental observations of memory effects. However, the structures of the adsorbed bowl and ring C20 were different from their original ones. In this case, the local order in cluster-assembled films would be different from the free clusters.

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The deposition of hyperthermal CH3 on diamond (001)-(2×1) surface at room temperature has been studied by means of molecular dynamics simulation using the many-body hydrocarbon potential. The energy threshold effect has been observed. That is, with fixed collision geometry, chemisorption can occur only when the incident energy of CH3 is above a critical value (Eth). Increasing the incident energy, dissociation of hydrogen atoms from the incident molecule was observed. The chemisorption probability of CH3 as a function of its incident energy was calculated and compared with that of C2H2. We found that below 10 eV, the chemisorption probability of C2H2 is much lower than that of CH3 on the same surface. The interesting thing is that it is even lower than that of CH3 on a hydrogen covered surface at the same impact energy. It indicates that the reactive CH3 molecule is the more important species than C2H2 in diamond synthesis at low energy, which is in good agreement with the experimental observation.

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Introduction: Recent advances in the planning and delivery of radiotherapy treatments have resulted in improvements in the accuracy and precision with which therapeutic radiation can be administered. As the complexity of the treatments increases it becomes more difficult to predict the dose distribution in the patient accurately. Monte Carlo (MC) methods have the potential to improve the accuracy of the dose calculations and are increasingly being recognised as the ‘gold standard’ for predicting dose deposition in the patient [1]. This project has three main aims: 1. To develop tools that enable the transfer of treatment plan information from the treatment planning system (TPS) to a MC dose calculation engine. 2. To develop tools for comparing the 3D dose distributions calculated by the TPS and the MC dose engine. 3. To investigate the radiobiological significance of any errors between the TPS patient dose distribution and the MC dose distribution in terms of Tumour Control Probability (TCP) and Normal Tissue Complication Probabilities (NTCP). The work presented here addresses the first two aims. Methods: (1a) Plan Importing: A database of commissioned accelerator models (Elekta Precise and Varian 2100CD) has been developed for treatment simulations in the MC system (EGSnrc/BEAMnrc). Beam descriptions can be exported from the TPS using the widespread DICOM framework, and the resultant files are parsed with the assistance of a software library (PixelMed Java DICOM Toolkit). The information in these files (such as the monitor units, the jaw positions and gantry orientation) is used to construct a plan-specific accelerator model which allows an accurate simulation of the patient treatment field. (1b) Dose Simulation: The calculation of a dose distribution requires patient CT images which are prepared for the MC simulation using a tool (CTCREATE) packaged with the system. Beam simulation results are converted to absolute dose per- MU using calibration factors recorded during the commissioning process and treatment simulation. These distributions are combined according to the MU meter settings stored in the exported plan to produce an accurate description of the prescribed dose to the patient. (2) Dose Comparison: TPS dose calculations can be obtained using either a DICOM export or by direct retrieval of binary dose files from the file system. Dose difference, gamma evaluation and normalised dose difference algorithms [2] were employed for the comparison of the TPS dose distribution and the MC dose distribution. These implementations are spatial resolution independent and able to interpolate for comparisons. Results and Discussion: The tools successfully produced Monte Carlo input files for a variety of plans exported from the Eclipse (Varian Medical Systems) and Pinnacle (Philips Medical Systems) planning systems: ranging in complexity from a single uniform square field to a five-field step and shoot IMRT treatment. The simulation of collimated beams has been verified geometrically, and validation of dose distributions in a simple body phantom (QUASAR) will follow. The developed dose comparison algorithms have also been tested with controlled dose distribution changes. Conclusion: The capability of the developed code to independently process treatment plans has been demonstrated. A number of limitations exist: only static fields are currently supported (dynamic wedges and dynamic IMRT will require further development), and the process has not been tested for planning systems other than Eclipse and Pinnacle. The tools will be used to independently assess the accuracy of the current treatment planning system dose calculation algorithms for complex treatment deliveries such as IMRT in treatment sites where patient inhomogeneities are expected to be significant. Acknowledgements: Computational resources and services used in this work were provided by the HPC and Research Support Group, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia. Pinnacle dose parsing made possible with the help of Paul Reich, North Coast Cancer Institute, North Coast, New South Wales.

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Despite its potential multiple contributions to sustainable policy objectives, urban transit is generally not widely used by the public in terms of its market share compared to that of automobiles, particularly in affluent societies with low-density urban forms like Australia. Transit service providers need to attract more people to transit by improving transit quality of service. The key to cost-effective transit service improvements lies in accurate evaluation of policy proposals by taking into account their impacts on transit users. If transit providers knew what is more or less important to their customers, they could focus their efforts on optimising customer-oriented service. Policy interventions could also be specified to influence transit users’ travel decisions, with targets of customer satisfaction and broader community welfare. This significance motivates the research into the relationship between urban transit quality of service and its user perception as well as behaviour. This research focused on two dimensions of transit user’s travel behaviour: route choice and access arrival time choice. The study area chosen was a busy urban transit corridor linking Brisbane central business district (CBD) and the St. Lucia campus of The University of Queensland (UQ). This multi-system corridor provided a ‘natural experiment’ for transit users between the CBD and UQ, as they can choose between busway 109 (with grade-separate exclusive right-of-way), ordinary on-street bus 412, and linear fast ferry CityCat on the Brisbane River. The population of interest was set as the attendees to UQ, who travelled from the CBD or from a suburb via the CBD. Two waves of internet-based self-completion questionnaire surveys were conducted to collect data on sampled passengers’ perception of transit service quality and behaviour of using public transit in the study area. The first wave survey is to collect behaviour and attitude data on respondents’ daily transit usage and their direct rating of importance on factors of route-level transit quality of service. A series of statistical analyses is conducted to examine the relationships between transit users’ travel and personal characteristics and their transit usage characteristics. A factor-cluster segmentation procedure is applied to respodents’ importance ratings on service quality variables regarding transit route preference to explore users’ various perspectives to transit quality of service. Based on the perceptions of service quality collected from the second wave survey, a series of quality criteria of the transit routes under study was quantitatively measured, particularly, the travel time reliability in terms of schedule adherence. It was proved that mixed traffic conditions and peak-period effects can affect transit service reliability. Multinomial logit models of transit user’s route choice were estimated using route-level service quality perceptions collected in the second wave survey. Relative importance of service quality factors were derived from choice model’s significant parameter estimates, such as access and egress times, seat availability, and busway system. Interpretations of the parameter estimates were conducted, particularly the equivalent in-vehicle time of access and egress times, and busway in-vehicle time. Market segmentation by trip origin was applied to investigate the difference in magnitude between the parameter estimates of access and egress times. The significant costs of transfer in transit trips were highlighted. These importance ratios were applied back to quality perceptions collected as RP data to compare the satisfaction levels between the service attributes and to generate an action relevance matrix to prioritise attributes for quality improvement. An empirical study on the relationship between average passenger waiting time and transit service characteristics was performed using the service quality perceived. Passenger arrivals for services with long headways (over 15 minutes) were found to be obviously coordinated with scheduled departure times of transit vehicles in order to reduce waiting time. This drove further investigations and modelling innovations in passenger’ access arrival time choice and its relationships with transit service characteristics and average passenger waiting time. Specifically, original contributions were made in formulation of expected waiting time, analysis of the risk-aversion attitude to missing desired service run in the passengers’ access time arrivals’ choice, and extensions of the utility function specification for modelling passenger access arrival distribution, by using complicated expected utility forms and non-linear probability weighting to explicitly accommodate the risk of missing an intended service and passenger’s risk-aversion attitude. Discussions on this research’s contributions to knowledge, its limitations, and recommendations for future research are provided at the concluding section of this thesis.

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Groundwater flow models are usually characterized as being either transient flow models or steady state flow models. Given that steady state groundwater flow conditions arise as a long time asymptotic limit of a particular transient response, it is natural for us to seek a finite estimate of the amount of time required for a particular transient flow problem to effectively reach steady state. Here, we introduce the concept of mean action time (MAT) to address a fundamental question: How long does it take for a groundwater recharge process or discharge processes to effectively reach steady state? This concept relies on identifying a cumulative distribution function, $F(t;x)$, which varies from $F(0;x)=0$ to $F(t;x) \to \infty$ as $t\to \infty$, thereby providing us with a measurement of the progress of the system towards steady state. The MAT corresponds to the mean of the associated probability density function $f(t;x) = \dfrac{dF}{dt}$, and we demonstrate that this framework provides useful analytical insight by explicitly showing how the MAT depends on the parameters in the model and the geometry of the problem. Additional theoretical results relating to the variance of $f(t;x)$, known as the variance of action time (VAT), are also presented. To test our theoretical predictions we include measurements from a laboratory–scale experiment describing flow through a homogeneous porous medium. The laboratory data confirms that the theoretical MAT predictions are in good agreement with measurements from the physical model.

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Road safety barriers are used to redirect traffic at roadside work-zones. When filled with water, these barriers are able to withstand low to moderate impact speeds up to 50kmh-1. Despite this feature, there are challenges when using portable water-filled barriers (PWFBs) such as large lateral displacements as well as tearing and breakage during impact, especially at higher speeds. In this study, the authors explore the use of composite action to enhance the crashworthiness of PWFBs and enable their use at higher speeds. Initially, we investigated the energy absorption capability of water in PWFB. Then, we considered the composite action of a PWFB with the introduction of a steel frame to evaluate its impact on performance. Findings of the study show that the initial height of impact must be lower than the free surface level of water in a PWFB for the water to provide significant crash energy absorption. In general, impact of a road barrier that is 80% filled is a good estimation. Furthermore, the addition of a composite structure greatly reduces the probability of tearing by decreasing the strain and impact energy transferred to the shell container. This allows the water to remain longer in the barrier to absorb energy via inertial displacement and sloshing response. Information from this research will aid in the design of next generation roadside safety structures aimed to increase safety on modern roadways.

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Background Falls are one of the most frequently occurring adverse events that impact upon the recovery of older hospital inpatients. Falls can threaten both immediate and longer-term health and independence. There is need to identify cost-effective means for preventing falls in hospitals. Hospital-based falls prevention interventions tested in randomized trials have not yet been subjected to economic evaluation. Methods Incremental cost-effectiveness analysis was undertaken from the health service provider perspective, over the period of hospitalization (time horizon) using the Australian Dollar (A$) at 2008 values. Analyses were based on data from a randomized trial among n = 1,206 acute and rehabilitation inpatients. Decision tree modeling with three-way sensitivity analyses were conducted using burden of disease estimates developed from trial data and previous research. The intervention was a multimedia patient education program provided with trained health professional follow-up shown to reduce falls among cognitively intact hospital patients. Results The short-term cost to a health service of one cognitively intact patient being a faller could be as high as A$14,591 (2008). The education program cost A$526 (2008) to prevent one cognitively intact patient becoming a faller and A$294 (2008) to prevent one fall based on primary trial data. These estimates were unstable due to high variability in the hospital costs accrued by individual patients involved in the trial. There was a 52% probability the complete program was both more effective and less costly (from the health service perspective) than providing usual care alone. Decision tree modeling sensitivity analyses identified that when provided in real life contexts, the program would be both more effective in preventing falls among cognitively intact inpatients and cost saving where the proportion of these patients who would otherwise fall under usual care conditions is at least 4.0%. Conclusions This economic evaluation was designed to assist health care providers decide in what circumstances this intervention should be provided. If the proportion of cognitively intact patients falling on a ward under usual care conditions is 4% or greater, then provision of the complete program in addition to usual care will likely both prevent falls and reduce costs for a health service.

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In the electricity market environment, coordination of system reliability and economics of a power system is of great significance in determining the available transfer capability (ATC). In addition, the risks associated with uncertainties should be properly addressed in the ATC determination process for risk-benefit maximization. Against this background, it is necessary that the ATC be optimally allocated and utilized within relative security constraints. First of all, the non-sequential Monte Carlo stimulation is employed to derive the probability density distribution of ATC of designated areas incorporating uncertainty factors. Second, on the basis of that, a multi-objective optimization model is formulated to determine the multi-area ATC so as to maximize the risk-benefits. Then, the solution to the developed model is achieved by the fast non-dominated sorting (NSGA-II) algorithm, which could decrease the risk caused by uncertainties while coordinating the ATCs of different areas. Finally, the IEEE 118-bus test system is served for demonstrating the essential features of the developed model and employed algorithm.

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The article focuses on how the information seeker makes decisions about relevance. It will employ a novel decision theory based on quantum probabilities. This direction derives from mounting research within the field of cognitive science showing that decision theory based on quantum probabilities is superior to modelling human judgements than standard probability models [2, 1]. By quantum probabilities, we mean decision event space is modelled as vector space rather than the usual Boolean algebra of sets. In this way,incompatible perspectives around a decision can be modelled leading to an interference term which modifies the law of total probability. The interference term is crucial in modifying the probability judgements made by current probabilistic systems so they align better with human judgement. The goal of this article is thus to model the information seeker user as a decision maker. For this purpose, signal detection models will be sketched which are in principle applicable in a wide variety of information seeking scenarios.

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At NTCIR-10 we participated in the cross-lingual link discovery (CrossLink-2) task. In this paper we describe our systems for discovering cross-lingual links between the Chinese, Japanese, and Korean (CJK) Wikipedia and the English Wikipedia. The evaluation results show that our implementation of the cross-lingual linking method achieved promising results.