Geometry‐specified troposphere decorrelation for subcentimeter real‐time kinematic solutions over long baselines

Real‐time kinematic (RTK) GPS techniques have been extensively developed for applications including surveying, structural monitoring, and machine automation. Limitations of the existing RTK techniques that hinder their applications for geodynamics purposes are twofold: (1) the achievable RTK accuracy is on the level of a few centimeters and the uncertainty of vertical component is 1.5–2 times worse than those of horizontal components and (2) the RTK position uncertainty grows in proportional to the base‐torover distances. The key limiting factor behind the problems is the significant effect of residual tropospheric errors on the positioning solutions, especially on the highly correlated height component. This paper develops the geometry‐specified troposphere decorrelation strategy to achieve the subcentimeter kinematic positioning accuracy in all three components. The key is to set up a relative zenith tropospheric delay (RZTD) parameter to absorb the residual tropospheric effects and to solve the established model as an ill‐posed problem using the regularization method. In order to compute a reasonable regularization parameter to obtain an optimal regularized solution, the covariance matrix of positional parameters estimated without the RZTD parameter, which is characterized by observation geometry, is used to replace the quadratic matrix of their “true” values. As a result, the regularization parameter is adaptively computed with variation of observation geometry. The experiment results show that new method can efficiently alleviate the model’s ill condition and stabilize the solution from a single data epoch. Compared to the results from the conventional least squares method, the new method can improve the longrange RTK solution precision from several centimeters to the subcentimeter in all components. More significantly, the precision of the height component is even higher. Several geosciences applications that require subcentimeter real‐time solutions can largely benefit from the proposed approach, such as monitoring of earthquakes and large dams in real‐time, high‐precision GPS leveling and refinement of the vertical datum. In addition, the high‐resolution RZTD solutions can contribute to effective recovery of tropospheric slant path delays in order to establish a 4‐D troposphere tomography.

Distinguishing forced versus discretionary replacements in new product diffusion models

In many product categories of durable goods such as TV, PC, and DVD player, the largest component of sales is generated by consumers replacing existing units. Aggregate sales models proposed by diffusion of innovation researchers for the replacement component of sales have incorporated several different replacement distributions such as Rayleigh, Weibull, Truncated Normal and Gamma. Although these alternative replacement distributions have been tested using both time series sales data and individual-level actuarial “life-tables” of replacement ages, there is no census on which distributions are more appropriate to model replacement behaviour. In the current study we are motivated to develop a new “modified gamma” distribution by two reasons. First we recognise that replacements have two fundamentally different drivers – those forced by failure and early, discretionary replacements. The replacement distribution for each of these drivers is expected to be quite different. Second, we observed a poor fit of other distributions to out empirical data. We conducted a survey of 8,077 households to empirically examine models of replacement sales for six electronic consumer durables – TVs, VCRs, DVD players, digital cameras, personal and notebook computers. This data allows us to construct individual-level “life-tables” for replacement ages. We demonstrate the new modified gamma model fits the empirical data better than existing models for all six products using both a primary and a hold-out sample.

Provisional supervision in Hong Kong : third time lucky?

Provisional supervision (PS) is Hong Kong’s proposed new corporate rescue procedure. In essence, it is a procedure for the preparation by a professional, usually an accountant or a solicitor, of a proposal for a voluntary arrangement, supported by a moratorium. There should be little court involvement in the process and it is anticipated that the costs and delays of the process would be less than alternate, currently available procedures. This article will retrace some of the key events and issues arising from the numerous policy and legislative debates about PS in Hong Kong. At present the Hong Kong government is in the midst of drafting a new Bill on corporate rescue procedure to be introduced to the HKSAR Legislative Council. This will be the third attempt. Setting aside the controversies and the content of this new effort by the Hong Kong administration, the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 has signalled to the international policy and business community, free markets alone cannot be an effective regulatory mechanism. Having legal safeguards and clear rules to regulate procedures and conduct of market participants are imperative to avoid future financial meltdowns.

Empirical Bayes method in the study of traffic safety via heterogeneous negative multinomial model

In the study of traffic safety, expected crash frequencies across sites are generally estimated via the negative binomial model, assuming time invariant safety. Since the time invariant safety assumption may be invalid, Hauer (1997) proposed a modified empirical Bayes (EB) method. Despite the modification, no attempts have been made to examine the generalisable form of the marginal distribution resulting from the modified EB framework. Because the hyper-parameters needed to apply the modified EB method are not readily available, an assessment is lacking on how accurately the modified EB method estimates safety in the presence of the time variant safety and regression-to-the-mean (RTM) effects. This study derives the closed form marginal distribution, and reveals that the marginal distribution in the modified EB method is equivalent to the negative multinomial (NM) distribution, which is essentially the same as the likelihood function used in the random effects Poisson model. As a result, this study shows that the gamma posterior distribution from the multivariate Poisson-gamma mixture can be estimated using the NM model or the random effects Poisson model. This study also shows that the estimation errors from the modified EB method are systematically smaller than those from the comparison group method by simultaneously accounting for the RTM and time variant safety effects. Hence, the modified EB method via the NM model is a generalisable method for estimating safety in the presence of the time variant safety and the RTM effects.

How automated speed enforcement may reduce travel time variability and result in travel time savings : the case study of the loop 101 speed enforcement program in Scottsdale, Arizona

The city of Scottsdale Arizona implemented the first fixed photo Speed Enforcement camera demonstration Program (SEP) on a US freeway in 2006. A comprehensive before-and-after analysis of the impact of the SEP on safety revealed significant reductions in crash frequency and severity, which indicates that the SEP is a promising countermeasure for improving safety. However, there is often a trade off between safety and mobility when safety investments are considered. As a result, identifying safety countermeasures that both improve safety and reduce Travel Time Variability (TTV) is a desirable goal for traffic safety engineers. This paper reports on the analysis of the mobility impacts of the SEP by simulating the traffic network with and without the SEP, calibrated to real world conditions. The simulation results show that the SEP decreased the TTV: the risk of unreliable travel was at least 23% higher in the ‘without SEP’ scenario than in the ‘with SEP’ scenario. In addition, the total Travel Time Savings (TTS) from the SEP was estimated to be at least ‘569 vehicle-hours/year.’ Consequently, the SEP is an efficient countermeasure not only for reducing crashes but also for improving mobility through TTS and reduced TTV.

A Modified inverse integer Cholesky decorrelation method and the performance on ambiguity resolution

One of the research focuses in the integer least squares problem is the decorrelation technique to reduce the number of integer parameter search candidates and improve the efficiency of the integer parameter search method. It remains as a challenging issue for determining carrier phase ambiguities and plays a critical role in the future of GNSS high precise positioning area. Currently, there are three main decorrelation techniques being employed: the integer Gaussian decorrelation, the Lenstra–Lenstra–Lovász (LLL) algorithm and the inverse integer Cholesky decorrelation (IICD) method. Although the performance of these three state-of-the-art methods have been proved and demonstrated, there is still a potential for further improvements. To measure the performance of decorrelation techniques, the condition number is usually used as the criterion. Additionally, the number of grid points in the search space can be directly utilized as a performance measure as it denotes the size of search space. However, a smaller initial volume of the search ellipsoid does not always represent a smaller number of candidates. This research has proposed a modified inverse integer Cholesky decorrelation (MIICD) method which improves the decorrelation performance over the other three techniques. The decorrelation performance of these methods was evaluated based on the condition number of the decorrelation matrix, the number of search candidates and the initial volume of search space. Additionally, the success rate of decorrelated ambiguities was calculated for all different methods to investigate the performance of ambiguity validation. The performance of different decorrelation methods was tested and compared using both simulation and real data. The simulation experiment scenarios employ the isotropic probabilistic model using a predetermined eigenvalue and without any geometry or weighting system constraints. MIICD method outperformed other three methods with conditioning improvements over LAMBDA method by 78.33% and 81.67% without and with eigenvalue constraint respectively. The real data experiment scenarios involve both the single constellation system case and dual constellations system case. Experimental results demonstrate that by comparing with LAMBDA, MIICD method can significantly improve the efficiency of reducing the condition number by 78.65% and 97.78% in the case of single constellation and dual constellations respectively. It also shows improvements in the number of search candidate points by 98.92% and 100% in single constellation case and dual constellations case.

Noise robust voice activity detection using features extracted from the time-domain autocorrelation function

This paper presents a method of voice activity detection (VAD) for high noise scenarios, using a noise robust voiced speech detection feature. The developed method is based on the fusion of two systems. The first system utilises the maximum peak of the normalised time-domain autocorrelation function (MaxPeak). The second zone system uses a novel combination of cross-correlation and zero-crossing rate of the normalised autocorrelation to approximate a measure of signal pitch and periodicity (CrossCorr) that is hypothesised to be noise robust. The score outputs by the two systems are then merged using weighted sum fusion to create the proposed autocorrelation zero-crossing rate (AZR) VAD. Accuracy of AZR was compared to state of the art and standardised VAD methods and was shown to outperform the best performing system with an average relative improvement of 24.8% in half-total error rate (HTER) on the QUT-NOISE-TIMIT database created using real recordings from high-noise environments.

Efficient simulation of unsaturated flow using exponential time integration

We assess the performance of an exponential integrator for advancing stiff, semidiscrete formulations of the unsaturated Richards equation in time. The scheme is of second order and explicit in nature but requires the action of the matrix function φ(A) where φ(z) = [exp(z) - 1]/z on a suitability defined vector v at each time step. When the matrix A is large and sparse, φ(A)v can be approximated by Krylov subspace methods that require only matrix-vector products with A. We prove that despite the use of this approximation the scheme remains second order. Furthermore, we provide a practical variable-stepsize implementation of the integrator by deriving an estimate of the local error that requires only a single additional function evaluation. Numerical experiments performed on two-dimensional test problems demonstrate that this implementation outperforms second-order, variable-stepsize implementations of the backward differentiation formulae.

Cancer-related symptom clusters for symptom management in outpatients after commencing adjuvant chemotherapy, at 6 months, and 12 months

Goals of work: The aim of this secondary data analysis was to investigate symptom clusters over time for symptom management of a patient group after commencing adjuvant chemotherapy. Materials and methods: A prospective longitudinal study of 219 cancer outpatients conducted within 1 month of commencing chemotherapy (T1), 6 months (T2), and 12 months (T3) later. Patients' distress levels were assessed for 42 physical symptoms on a clinician-modified Rotterdam Symptom Checklist. Symptom clusters were identified in exploratory factor analyses at each time. Symptom inclusion in clusters was determined from structure coefficients. Symptoms could be associated with multiple clusters. Stability over time was determined from symptom cluster composition and the proportion of symptoms in the initial symptom clusters replicated at later times. Main results Fatigue and daytime sleepiness were the most prevalent distressing symptoms over time. The median number of concurrent distressing symptoms approximated 7, over time. Five consistent clusters were identified at T1, 2, and T3. An additional two clusters were identified at 12 months, possibly due to less variation in distress levels. Weakness and fatigue were each associated with two, four, and five symptom clusters at T1, T2, and T3, respectively, potentially suggesting different causal mechanisms. Conclusion: Stability is a necessary attribute of symptom clusters, but definitional clarification is required. We propose that a core set of concurrent symptoms identifies each symptom cluster, signifying a common cause. Additional related symptoms may be included over time. Further longitudinal investigation is required to identify symptom clusters and the underlying causes.

Continuous appearance-based trajectory SLAM

This paper describes a novel probabilistic approach to incorporating odometric information into appearance-based SLAM systems, without performing metric map construction or calculating relative feature geometry. The proposed system, dubbed Continuous Appearance-based Trajectory SLAM (CAT-SLAM), represents location as a probability distribution along a trajectory, and represents appearance continuously over the trajectory rather than at discrete locations. The distribution is evaluated using a Rao-Blackwellised particle filter, which weights particles based on local appearance and odometric similarity and explicitly models both the likelihood of revisiting previous locations and visiting new locations. A modified resampling scheme counters particle deprivation and allows loop closure updates to be performed in constant time regardless of map size. We compare the performance of CAT-SLAM to FAB-MAP (an appearance-only SLAM algorithm) in an outdoor environment, demonstrating a threefold increase in the number of correct loop closures detected by CAT-SLAM.

Highly discriminatory single-nucleotide polymorphism interrogation of Escherichia coli by use of allele-specific real-time PCR and eBURST analysis

In total, 782 Escherichia coli strains originating from various host sources have been analyzed in this study by using a highly discriminatory single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) approach. A set of eight SNPs, with a discrimination value (Simpson's index of diversity [D]) of 0.96, was determined using the Minimum SNPs software, based on sequences of housekeeping genes from the E. coli multilocus sequence typing (MLST) database. Allele-specific real-time PCR was used to screen 114 E. coli isolates from various fecal sources in Southeast Queensland (SEQ). The combined analysis of both the MLST database and SEQ E. coli isolates using eight high-D SNPs resolved the isolates into 74 SNP profiles. The data obtained suggest that SNP typing is a promising approach for the discrimination of host-specific groups and allows for the identification of human-specific E. coli in environmental samples. However, a more diverse E. coli collection is required to determine animal- and environment-specific E. coli SNP profiles due to the abundance of human E. coli strains (56%) in the MLST database.

Hierarchical Bayesian models for estimating the extent of plant pest invasions

Plant biosecurity requires statistical tools to interpret field surveillance data in order to manage pest incursions that threaten crop production and trade. Ultimately, management decisions need to be based on the probability that an area is infested or free of a pest. Current informal approaches to delimiting pest extent rely upon expert ecological interpretation of presence / absence data over space and time. Hierarchical Bayesian models provide a cohesive statistical framework that can formally integrate the available information on both pest ecology and data. The overarching method involves constructing an observation model for the surveillance data, conditional on the hidden extent of the pest and uncertain detection sensitivity. The extent of the pest is then modelled as a dynamic invasion process that includes uncertainty in ecological parameters. Modelling approaches to assimilate this information are explored through case studies on spiralling whitefly, Aleurodicus dispersus and red banded mango caterpillar, Deanolis sublimbalis. Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probable extent of pests, given the observation and process model conditioned by surveillance data. Statistical methods, based on time-to-event models, are developed to apply hierarchical Bayesian models to early detection programs and to demonstrate area freedom from pests. The value of early detection surveillance programs is demonstrated through an application to interpret surveillance data for exotic plant pests with uncertain spread rates. The model suggests that typical early detection programs provide a moderate reduction in the probability of an area being infested but a dramatic reduction in the expected area of incursions at a given time. Estimates of spiralling whitefly extent are examined at local, district and state-wide scales. The local model estimates the rate of natural spread and the influence of host architecture, host suitability and inspector efficiency. These parameter estimates can support the development of robust surveillance programs. Hierarchical Bayesian models for the human-mediated spread of spiralling whitefly are developed for the colonisation of discrete cells connected by a modified gravity model. By estimating dispersal parameters, the model can be used to predict the extent of the pest over time. An extended model predicts the climate restricted distribution of the pest in Queensland. These novel human-mediated movement models are well suited to demonstrating area freedom at coarse spatio-temporal scales. At finer scales, and in the presence of ecological complexity, exploratory models are developed to investigate the capacity for surveillance information to estimate the extent of red banded mango caterpillar. It is apparent that excessive uncertainty about observation and ecological parameters can impose limits on inference at the scales required for effective management of response programs. The thesis contributes novel statistical approaches to estimating the extent of pests and develops applications to assist decision-making across a range of plant biosecurity surveillance activities. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling is demonstrated as both a useful analytical tool for estimating pest extent and a natural investigative paradigm for developing and focussing biosecurity programs.

Queensland Government’s people’s question time : the challenges and opportunities of population growth in Queensland

As AITPM National President, I was invited by Queensland’s Premier, Hon. Anna Bligh MP, as an audience guest to People’s Question Time on Wednesday 24 March 2010, which focused on ‘The Challenges and Opportunities of Population Growth in Queensland’. On the panel were: Premier and Minister for the Arts, Anna Bligh; Minister for Climate Change and Sustainability, Kate Jones; Minister for Infrastructure and Planning, Stirling Hinchliffe; Michael Rayner – Growth Management Summit Advisory Panel, Principal Director, Cox Rayner Architects; and Greg Hallam – Executive Director, Local Government Association of Queensland. The moderator for this session was Law Academic Erin O’Brien, of Queensland University of Technology.

Modelling bus lost time : an additional parameter influencing bus dwell time and station platform capacity at a BRT station platform

The common approach to estimate bus dwell time at a BRT station is to apply the traditional dwell time methodology derived for suburban bus stops. In spite of being sensitive to boarding and alighting passenger numbers and to some extent towards fare collection media, these traditional dwell time models do not account for the platform crowding. Moreover, they fall short in accounting for the effects of passenger/s walking along a relatively longer BRT platform. Using the experience from Brisbane busway (BRT) stations, a new variable, Bus Lost Time (LT), is introduced in traditional dwell time model. The bus lost time variable captures the impact of passenger walking and platform crowding on bus dwell time. These are two characteristics which differentiate a BRT station from a bus stop. This paper reports the development of a methodology to estimate bus lost time experienced by buses at a BRT platform. Results were compared with the Transit Capacity and Quality of Servce Manual (TCQSM) approach of dwell time and station capacity estimation. When the bus lost time was used in dwell time calculations it was found that the BRT station platform capacity reduced by 10.1%.