Self excitation in equity indices

A "self-exciting" market is one in which the probability of observing a crash increases in response to the occurrence of a crash. It essentially describes cases where the initial crash serves to weaken the system to some extent, making subsequent crashes more likely. This thesis investigates if equity markets possess this property. A self-exciting extension of the well-known jump-based Bates (1996) model is used as the workhorse model for this thesis, and a particle-filtering algorithm is used to facilitate estimation by means of maximum likelihood. The estimation method is developed so that option prices are easily included in the dataset, leading to higher quality estimates. Equilibrium arguments are used to price the risks associated with the time-varying crash probability, and in turn to motivate a risk-neutral system for use in option pricing. The option pricing function for the model is obtained via the application of widely-used Fourier techniques. An application to S&P500 index returns and a panel of S&P500 index option prices reveals evidence of self excitation.

Personalized ontology learning for enhancing text mining effectiveness

Over the last decade, the majority of existing search techniques is either keyword- based or category-based, resulting in unsatisfactory effectiveness. Meanwhile, studies have illustrated that more than 80% of users preferred personalized search results. As a result, many studies paid a great deal of efforts (referred to as col- laborative filtering) investigating on personalized notions for enhancing retrieval performance. One of the fundamental yet most challenging steps is to capture precise user information needs. Most Web users are inexperienced or lack the capability to express their needs properly, whereas the existent retrieval systems are highly sensitive to vocabulary. Researchers have increasingly proposed the utilization of ontology-based tech- niques to improve current mining approaches. The related techniques are not only able to refine search intentions among specific generic domains, but also to access new knowledge by tracking semantic relations. In recent years, some researchers have attempted to build ontological user profiles according to discovered user background knowledge. The knowledge is considered to be both global and lo- cal analyses, which aim to produce tailored ontologies by a group of concepts. However, a key problem here that has not been addressed is: how to accurately match diverse local information to universal global knowledge. This research conducts a theoretical study on the use of personalized ontolo- gies to enhance text mining performance. The objective is to understand user information needs by a \bag-of-concepts" rather than \words". The concepts are gathered from a general world knowledge base named the Library of Congress Subject Headings. To return desirable search results, a novel ontology-based mining approach is introduced to discover accurate search intentions and learn personalized ontologies as user profiles. The approach can not only pinpoint users' individual intentions in a rough hierarchical structure, but can also in- terpret their needs by a set of acknowledged concepts. Along with global and local analyses, another solid concept matching approach is carried out to address about the mismatch between local information and world knowledge. Relevance features produced by the Relevance Feature Discovery model, are determined as representatives of local information. These features have been proven as the best alternative for user queries to avoid ambiguity and consistently outperform the features extracted by other filtering models. The two attempt-to-proposed ap- proaches are both evaluated by a scientific evaluation with the standard Reuters Corpus Volume 1 testing set. A comprehensive comparison is made with a num- ber of the state-of-the art baseline models, including TF-IDF, Rocchio, Okapi BM25, the deploying Pattern Taxonomy Model, and an ontology-based model. The gathered results indicate that the top precision can be improved remarkably with the proposed ontology mining approach, where the matching approach is successful and achieves significant improvements in most information filtering measurements. This research contributes to the fields of ontological filtering, user profiling, and knowledge representation. The related outputs are critical when systems are expected to return proper mining results and provide personalized services. The scientific findings have the potential to facilitate the design of advanced preference mining models, where impact on people's daily lives.

An exploratory study to evaluate whether medical nutrition therapy can improve dietary intake in hospital patients who eat poorly

Background and aims The Australasian Nutrition Care Day Survey (ANCDS) reported two-in-five patients consume ≤50% of the offered food in Australian and New Zealand hospitals. After controlling for confounders (nutritional status, age, disease type and severity), the ANCDS also established an independent association between poor food intake and increased in-hospital mortality. This study aimed to evaluate if medical nutrition therapy (MNT) could improve dietary intake in hospital patients eating poorly. Methods An exploratory pilot study was conducted in the respiratory, neurology and orthopaedic wards of an Australian hospital. At baseline, percentage food intake (0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100%) was evaluated for each main meal and snack for a 24-hour period in patients hospitalised for ≥2 days and not under dietetic review. Patients consuming ≤50% of offered meals due to nutrition-impact symptoms were referred to ward dietitians for MNT. Food intake was re-evaluated on the seventh day following recruitment (post-MNT). Results 184 patients were observed over four weeks; 32 patients were referred for MNT. Although baseline and post-MNT data for 20 participants (68±17years, 65% females) indicated a significant increase in median energy and protein intake post-MNT (3600kJ/day, 40g/day) versus baseline (2250kJ/day, 25g/day) (p<0.05), the increased intake met only 50% of dietary requirements. Persistent nutrition impact symptoms affected intake. Conclusion In this pilot study whilst dietary intake improved, it remained inadequate to meet participants’ estimated requirements due to ongoing nutrition-impact symptoms. Appropriate medical management and early enteral feeding could be a possible solution for such patients.

A high-throughput panel for identifying clinically relevant mutation profiles in melanoma

Success with molecular-based targeted drugs in the treatment of cancer has ignited extensive research efforts within the field of personalized therapeutics. However, successful application of such therapies is dependent on the presence or absence of mutations within the patient's tumor that can confer clinical efficacy or drug resistance. Building on these findings, we developed a high-throughput mutation panel for the identification of frequently occurring and clinically relevant mutations in melanoma. An extensive literature search and interrogation of the Catalogue of Somatic Mutations in Cancer database identified more than 1,000 melanoma mutations. Applying a filtering strategy to focus on mutations amenable to the development of targeted drugs, we initially screened 120 known mutations in 271 samples using the Sequenom MassARRAY system. A total of 252 mutations were detected in 17 genes, the highest frequency occurred in BRAF (n = 154, 57%), NRAS (n = 55, 20%), CDK4 (n = 8, 3%), PTK2B (n = 7, 2.5%), and ERBB4 (n = 5, 2%). Based on this initial discovery screen, a total of 46 assays interrogating 39 mutations in 20 genes were designed to develop a melanoma-specific panel. These assays were distributed in multiplexes over 8 wells using strict assay design parameters optimized for sensitive mutation detection. The final melanoma-specific mutation panel is a cost effective, sensitive, high-throughput approach for identifying mutations of clinical relevance to molecular-based therapeutics for the treatment of melanoma. When used in a clinical research setting, the panel may rapidly and accurately identify potentially effective treatment strategies using novel or existing molecularly targeted drugs

A single dose of azithromycin does not improve clinical outcomes of children hospitalised with bronchiolitis : a randomised, placebo-controlled trial

Objective Bronchiolitis, one of the most common reasons for hospitalisation in young children, is particularly problematic in Indigenous children. Macrolides may be beneficial in settings where children have high rates of nasopharyngeal bacterial carriage and frequent prolonged illness. The aim of our double-blind placebo-controlled randomised trial was to determine if a large single dose of azithromycin (compared to placebo) reduced length of stay (LOS), duration of oxygen (O2) and respiratory readmissions within 6 months of children hospitalised with bronchiolitis. We also determined the effect of azithromycin on nasopharyngeal microbiology. Methods Children aged ≤18 months were randomised to receive a single large dose (30 mg/kg) of either azithromycin or placebo within 24 hrs of hospitalisation. Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected at baseline and 48hrs later. Primary endpoints (LOS, O2) were monitored every 12 hrs. Hospitalised respiratory readmissions 6-months post discharge was collected. Results 97 children were randomised (n = 50 azithromycin, n = 47 placebo). Median LOS was similar in both groups; azithromycin = 54 hours, placebo = 58 hours (difference between groups of 4 hours 95%CI -8, 13, p = 0.6). O2 requirement was not significantly different between groups; Azithromycin = 35 hrs; placebo = 42 hrs (difference 7 hours, 95%CI -9, 13, p = 0.7). Number of children re-hospitalised was similar 10 per group (OR = 0.9, 95%CI 0.3, 2, p = 0.8). At least one virus was detected in 74% of children. The azithromycin group had reduced nasopharyngeal bacterial carriage (p = 0.01) but no difference in viral detection at 48 hours. Conclusion Although a single dose of azithromycin reduces carriage of bacteria, it is unlikely to be beneficial in reducing LOS, duration of O2 requirement or readmissions in children hospitalised with bronchiolitis. It remains uncertain if an earlier and/or longer duration of azithromycin improves clinical and microbiological outcomes for children.

Injury severity of pedestrian crashes in Singapore

Singapore is a highly urbanized city-state country where walking is an important mode of travel. Pedestrians form about 25% of road fatalities every year, making them one of the most vulnerable road user groups in Singapore. Engineering measures like provision of overhead pedestrian crossings and raised zebra crossings tend to address pedestrian safety in general, but there may be occasions where pedestrians are particularly vulnerable so that targeted interventions are more appropriate. The objective of this study is to identify factors and situations that affect the injury severity of pedestrians involved in traffic crashes. Six years of crash data from 2003 to 2008 containing around four thousands pedestrian crashes at roadway segments were analyzed. Injury severity of pedestrians—recorded as slight injury, major injury and fatal—were modeled as a function of roadway characteristics, traffic features, environmental factors and pedestrian demographics by an ordered probit model. Results suggest that the injury severity of pedestrians involved in crashes during night time is higher indicating that pedestrian visibility during night is a key issue in pedestrian safety. The likelihood of fatal or serious injuries is higher for crashes on roads with high speed limit, center and median lane of multi-lane roads, school zones, roads with two-way divided traffic type, and when pedestrians cross the roads. Elderly pedestrians appear to be involved in fatal and serious injury crashes more when they attempt to cross the road without using nearby crossing facilities. Specific countermeasures are recommended based on the findings of this study.

Research capacity and culture in podiatry : early observations within Queensland Health

Background Research is a major driver of health care improvement and evidence-based practice is becoming the foundation of health care delivery. For health professions to develop within emerging models of health care delivery, it would seem imperative to develop and monitor the research capacity and evidence-based literacy of the health care workforce. This observational paper aims to report the research capacity levels of statewide populations of public-sector podiatrists at two different time points twelve-months apart. Methods The Research Capacity & Culture (RCC) survey was electronically distributed to all Queensland Health (Australia) employed podiatrists in January 2011 (n = 58) and January 2012 (n = 60). The RCC is a validated tool designed to measure indicators of research skill in health professionals. Participants rate skill levels against each individual, team and organisation statement on a 10-point scale (one = lowest, ten = highest). Chi-squared and Mann Whitney U tests were used to determine any differences between the results of the two survey samples. A minimum significance of p < 0.05 was used throughout. Results Thirty-seven (64%) podiatrists responded to the 2011 survey and 33 (55%) the 2012 survey. The 2011 survey respondents reported low skill levels (Median < 4) on most aspects of individual research aspects, except for their ability to locate and critically review research literature (Median > 6). Whereas, most reported their organisation’s skills to perform and support research at much higher levels (Median > 6). The 2012 survey respondents reported significantly higher skill ratings compared to the 2011 survey in individuals’ ability to secure research funding, submit ethics applications, and provide research advice, plus, in their organisation’s skills to support, fund, monitor, mentor and engage universities to partner their research (p < 0.05). Conclusions This study appears to report the research capacity levels of the largest populations of podiatrists published. The 2011 survey findings indicate podiatrists have similarly low research capacity skill levels to those reported in the allied health literature. The 2012 survey, compared to the 2011 survey, suggests podiatrists perceived higher skills and support to initiate research in 2012. This improvement coincided with the implementation of research capacity building strategies.

Filter and control performance bounds in the presence of model uncertainties with aerospace applications

This thesis establishes performance properties for approximate filters and controllers that are designed on the basis of approximate dynamic system representations. These performance properties provide a theoretical justification for the widespread application of approximate filters and controllers in the common situation where system models are not known with complete certainty. This research also provides useful tools for approximate filter designs, which are applied to hybrid filtering of uncertain nonlinear systems. As a contribution towards applications, this thesis also investigates air traffic separation control in the presence of measurement uncertainties.

A social matching system : using implicit and explicit information for personalized recommendation in online dating service

Online dating websites enable a specific form of social networking and their efficiency can be increased by supporting proactive recommendations based on participants' preferences with the use of data mining. This research develops two-way recommendation methods for people-to-people recommendation for large online social networks such as online dating networks. This research discovers the characteristics of the online dating networks and utilises these characteristics in developing efficient people-to-people recommendation methods. Methods developed support improved recommendation accuracy, can handle data sparsity that often comes with large data sets and are scalable for handling online networks with a large number of users.

Transition to palliative care for people living with metastatic melanoma : preliminary findings from a grounded theory study

Melanoma is the most aggressive form of skin cancer. Five-year survival rates for patients with metastatic melanoma are less than 10%, with a median survival of 6 to 9 months. Despite a number of clinical trials for metastatic melanoma, the treatment options for patients are limited. Palliation is often the main goal of treatment. This constructivist grounded theory study is seeking to examine how people with metastatic melanoma negotiate the transition to palliative care. The method of sampling is purposive and data have been generated through semi-structured interviews with those with metastatic melanoma and partners. Open, focused and theoretical coding of data from 13 interviews conducted to date has produced analytical concepts that reflect how the transition is negotiated. These concepts depict ways in which individuals interact with a fragmented health care system and how meanings are constructed around the rapid progression of the disease and uncertain treatment decisions. The preliminary findings reported upon here are being further explored with a larger sample. The findings to date highlight the need for improved coordination of services for those living with metastatic melanoma, and improved support for individuals dealing with uncertainty.

Defining the parental burden of acute cough in children

Despite the prevalence of acute cough in children (<2 weeks duration), the burden to parents and families is largely unknown. The objectives of this study were to determine the parental burden of children’s acute cough, and to evaluate psychological and other infl uences on the reported burden of acute cough in children. Methods Parents of children with a current acute cough (<2 weeks) at enrolment completed 4 questionnaires (state trait anxiety inventory (STAI); short form health survey (SF-8); depression, anxiety and stress 21-item scale (DASS21); and our preliminary 48-item parent acute cough specifi c quality of life (PAC-QOL48) questionnaire). In PAC-QOL48, lower scores refl ect worse QOL. Results Median age of the 104 children enrolled was 2.63 (IQR 1.42, 4.79) years, 54 were boys. Median length of cough at enrolment was 3 (IQR 2, 5) days. Median total PAC-QOL48 score of parents enrolled at presentation to the emergency department (n = 70) was signifi cantly worse than of parents enrolled through the community (n = 24) (p < 0.01). More than half (n = 55) had sought medical assistance more than once for the current acute coughing illness. PAC-QOL48 score was signifi cantly negatively correlated to verbal category descriptive and visual analogue scale cough scores (Spearman r = −0.26, p = 0.05 and r = −0.46, p = 0.01 respectively) and DASS21 total score (r = −0.36, p = 0.01), but not to child’s age. Conclusions Consistent with data on chronic cough, stress was the predominant factor of parental burden. This study highlights the ongoing need for clinicians to be cognizant of parental worries and concerns when their children are coughing, and for further research into safe and effective therapies for acute cough in children.

Hospitalisation of Indigenous children in the Northern Territory for lower respiratory illness in the first year of life

Objective To describe the epidemiology of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) and bronchiectasis in Northern Territory Indigenous infants hospitalised in the first year of life. Design A historical cohort study constructed from the NT Hospital Discharge Dataset and the NT Imm(u)nisation Register. Participants and setting All NT resident Indigenous infants, born 1 January 1999 to 31 December 2004, admitted to NT public hospitals and followed up to 12 months of age. Main outcome measures Incidence of ALRI and bronchiectasis (ICD-10-AM codes) and radiologically confirmed pneumonia (World Health Organization protocol). Results Data on 9295 infants, 8498 child-years of observation and 15 948 hospitalised episodes of care were analysed. ALRI incidence was 426.7 episodes per 1000 child-years (95% Cl, 416.2-437.2). Incidence rates were two times higher (relative risk, 2.12; 95% Cl, 1.98-2.27) for infants in Central Australia compared with those in the Top End. The median age at first admission for an ALRI was 4.6 months (interquartile range, 2.6-7.3). Bronchiolitis accounted for most of the disease burden, with a rate of 227 per 1000 child-years. The incidence of first diagnosis of bronchiectasis was 1.18 per 1000 child-years (95% Cl, 0.60-2.16). One or more key comorbidities were present in 1445 of the 3227 (44.8%) episodes of care for ALRI. Conclusions Rates of ALRI and bronchiectasis in NT Indigenous infants are excessive, with early onset, frequent repeat episodes, and a high prevalence of comorbidities. These high rates of disease demand urgent attention.

An outbreak of salmonellosis linked to a marine turtle

In September 1998, an outbreak of gastroenteritis occurred in a coastal Aboriginal community in the Northern Territory over a seven day period. An investigation was conducted by the Center for Disease Control, Territory Health Services. Thirty-six cases were detected and 17% (n=6) were hospitalized. Salmonella chester was isolated from eight of nine stool specimens. Sixty-two percent of cases interviewed (n=28) reported consumption of a green turtle (Chelonia mydas) within a median of 24 hours prior to onset of illness. Of the remainder, all but two were contacts of other cases. Salmonella chester was isolated from a section of partially cooked turtle meat. There are no previous published reports of salmonellosis associated with consumption of sea turtles despite them being a popular food source in coastal communities in the Pacific.

Surgical resection for non-small cell lung cancer : clinical features and outcomes for a consecutive series at an Irish tertiary referral centre

Background: Few patients diagnosed with lung cancer are still alive 5 years after diagnosis. The aim of the current study was to conduct a 10-year review of a consecutive series of patients undergoing curative-intent surgical resection at the largest tertiary referral centre to identify prognostic factors. Methods: Case records of all patients operated on for lung cancer between 1998 and 2008 were reviewed. The clinical features and outcomes of all patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) stage I-IV were recorded. Results: A total of 654 patients underwent surgical resection with curative intent during the study period. Median overall survival for the entire cohort was 37 months. The median age at operation was 66 years, with males accounting for 62.7 %. Squamous cell type was the most common histological subtype, and lobectomies were performed in 76.5 % of surgical resections. Pneumonectomy rates decreased significantly in the latter half of the study (25 vs. 16.3 %), while sub-anatomical resection more than doubled (2 vs. 5 %) (p < 0.005). Clinico-pathological characteristics associated with improved survival by univariate analysis include younger age, female sex, smaller tumour size, smoking status, lobectomy, lower T and N status and less advanced pathological stage. Age, gender, smoking status and tumour size, as well as T and N descriptors have emerged as independent prognostic factors by multivariate analysis. Conclusion: We identified several factors that predicted outcome for NSCLC patients undergoing curative-intent surgical resection. Survival rates in our series are comparable to those reported from other thoracic surgery centres. © 2012 Royal Academy of Medicine in Ireland.

Endothelin-1 is a novel prognostic factor in non-small cell lung cancer

Endothelin-1 (ET-1) is a potent vasoactive peptide and a hypoxia-inducible angiogenic growth factor associated with the development and growth of solid tumours. This study evaluated the expression of big endothelin-1 (big ET-1), a stable precursor of ET-1, and ET-1 in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Big ET-1 expression was evaluated in paraffin-embedded tissue sections from 10 NSCLC tumours using immunohistochemistry and in situ hybridisation. The production of big ET-1 and ET-1 was studied in six established NSCLC cell lines. The plasma concentrations of big ET-1 were measured in 30 patients with proven NSCLC prior to chemotherapy by means of a sandwich enzyme-linked immunoassay and compared to levels in 20 normal controls. Big ET-1 immunostaining was detected in the cancer cells of all tumours studied. Using in situ hybridisation, tumour cell big ET-1 mRNA expression was demonstrated in all samples. All six NSCLC cell lines expressed ET-1, with big ET-1 being detected in three. The median big ET-1 plasma level in patients with NSCLC was 5.4 pg/mL (range 0-22.7 pg/mL) and was significantly elevated compared to median big ET-1 plasma levels in controls, 2.1 pg/mL (1.2-13.4 pg/mL) (p=0.0001). Furthermore, patients with plasma big ET-1 levels above the normal range (upper tertile) had a worse outcome (p=0.01). In conclusion, big ET-1/ET-1 is expressed by resected NSCLC specimens and tumour cell lines. Plasma big ET-1 levels are elevated in NSCLC patients compared to controls with levels >7.8 pg/mL being associated with a worse outcome. The development of selective ET-1 antagonists such as Atrasentan indicates that ET-1 may be a therapeutic target in NSCLC. © 2004 Wichtig Editore.