Calculate excess mortality during heatwaves using Hilbert-Huang transform algorithm

Background Heatwaves could cause the population excess death numbers to be ranged from tens to thousands within a couple of weeks in a local area. An excess mortality due to a special event (e.g., a heatwave or an epidemic outbreak) is estimated by subtracting the mortality figure under ‘normal’ conditions from the historical daily mortality records. The calculation of the excess mortality is a scientific challenge because of the stochastic temporal pattern of the daily mortality data which is characterised by (a) the long-term changing mean levels (i.e., non-stationarity); (b) the non-linear temperature-mortality association. The Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) algorithm is a novel method originally developed for analysing the non-linear and non-stationary time series data in the field of signal processing, however, it has not been applied in public health research. This paper aimed to demonstrate the applicability and strength of the HHT algorithm in analysing health data. Methods Special R functions were developed to implement the HHT algorithm to decompose the daily mortality time series into trend and non-trend components in terms of the underlying physical mechanism. The excess mortality is calculated directly from the resulting non-trend component series. Results The Brisbane (Queensland, Australia) and the Chicago (United States) daily mortality time series data were utilized for calculating the excess mortality associated with heatwaves. The HHT algorithm estimated 62 excess deaths related to the February 2004 Brisbane heatwave. To calculate the excess mortality associated with the July 1995 Chicago heatwave, the HHT algorithm needed to handle the mode mixing issue. The HHT algorithm estimated 510 excess deaths for the 1995 Chicago heatwave event. To exemplify potential applications, the HHT decomposition results were used as the input data for a subsequent regression analysis, using the Brisbane data, to investigate the association between excess mortality and different risk factors. Conclusions The HHT algorithm is a novel and powerful analytical tool in time series data analysis. It has a real potential to have a wide range of applications in public health research because of its ability to decompose a nonlinear and non-stationary time series into trend and non-trend components consistently and efficiently.

Encouragement of physical activity for weight loss may lead to negative psychological outcomes among girls

PURPOSE To examine correlates and consequences of parents' encouragement of girls' physical activity (PA) for weight loss (ENCLOSS). METHODS Data were collected for 181 girls, mothers and fathers when girls were 9, 11, and 13 years old. Mothers and fathers completed a self-report questionnaire of ENCLOSS (e.g., “I have talked to my daughter about how to exercise to lose weight”). Correlates of ENCLOSS that were assessed include girls' Body Mass Index (BMI) z-score and parents' modeling of and logistic support for PA. Dependent variables assessed at age 13 include girls' self-reported and objectively-measured PA, enjoyment of physical activity, and weight concerns. Associations between ENCLOSS, girls' BMI, and parent's support for PA were assessed using spearman rank correlations. To examine links between ENCLOSS and the outcome variables, scores for ENCLOSS were divided into tertiles at each age. Three groups were created including girls who were in the highest tertile at each age (high ENCLOSS), girls who were in the lowest tertile at each age (low ENCLOSS), and girls who varied in their tertile ranking (mid ENCLOSS). Group differences in the outcome variables were assessed using regression analysis (referent group: low ENCLOSS), controlling for girls' BMI and the outcome variable at age 9. RESULTS Girls' with higher BMI had mothers and fathers who reported higher ENCLOSS (r = .61-. 69, p<. 0001). Parents'reports of ENCLOSS were not associated with modeling of or logistic support for PA. Girls in the high ENCLOSS group reported significantly lower enjoyment of PA and higher weight concerns at age 13, independent of covariates. No differences in PA were noted. CONCLUSION Parents who encourage their daughters to be active for weight loss do not model PA or facilitate girls' PA. Persistent encouragement of PA for weight loss may lead to low enjoyment of PA and higher weight concerns among adolescent girls.

Satisfaction with emergency department service among non-English-speaking background patients

Objective: The present study aims to investigate non-English-speaking background (NESB) patients’ satisfaction with hospital ED service and compare it with that of English-speaking background (ESB) patients. Methods: A cross-sectional survey was conducted at the ED of an adult tertiary referral hospital in Queensland, Australia. Patients assigned an Australasian Triage Scale score of 3, 4 or 5 were surveyed in the ED, before and after their ED service. Pearson χ2- test and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to examine the differences between the ESB and NESB groups in terms of patient-reported satisfaction. Results: In total, 828 patients participated in the present study. Although the overall satisfaction with the service was high – 95.1% (ESB) and 90.5% (NESB) – the NESB patients who did not use an interpreter were less satisfied with their ED service than the ESB patients (odds ratio 0.5, 95% confidence interval 0.3–0.8, P = 0.013). The promptness of service received the lowest satisfaction rates (ESB 85.4% [82.4–88.0], NESB 74.5% [68.5– 79.7], P < 0.001), whereas courtesy and friendliness received the highest satisfaction rates (ESB 98.8 [97.6–99.4], NESB 97.0 [93.9–98.5], P = 0.063). All participants reported the promptness of service (33.5%), quality and professional care (18.5%) and communication (17.6%) as the most important elements of ED service. Conclusion: The NESB patients were significantly less satisfied than the ESB patients with the ED service. Use of an interpreter improved the NESB patients’ level of satisfaction. Further research is required to examine what NESB patients’ expectations of ED service are.

Securitizing infectious disease

Over the past decade there has been an increased awareness in the field of international relations of the potential impact of an infectious disease epidemic on national security. While states’ attempts to combat infectious disease have a long history, what is new in this area is the adoption at the international level of securitized responses regarding the containment of infectious disease. This article argues that the securitization of infectious disease by states and the World Health Organization (WHO) has led to two key developments. First, the WHO has had to assert itself as the primary actor that all states, particularly western states, can rely upon to contain the threat of infectious diseases. The WHO's apparent success in this is evidenced by the development of the Global Outbreak Alert Response Network (GOARN), which has led to arguments that the WHO has emerged as the key authority in global health governance. The second outcome that this article seeks to explore is the development of the WHO's authority in the area of infectious disease surveillance. In particular, is GOARN a representation of the WHO's consummate authority in the area of coordinating infectious disease response or is GOARN the product of the WHO's capitulation to western states’ concerns with preventing infectious disease outbreaks from reaching their borders and as a result, are arguments expressing the authority of the WHO in infectious disease response premature?

The association between social support and levels of psychological distress in pregnant women in Australia

The purpose of this study was to explore associations between forms of social support and levels of psychological distress during pregnancy. Methods: A cross-sectional analysis of 2,743 pregnant women from south-east Queensland, Australia, was conducted utilising data collected between 2007-2011 as part of the Environments for Healthy Living (EFHL) project, Griffith University. Psychological distress was measured using the Kessler 6; social support was measured using the following four factors: living with a partner, living with parents or in-laws, self-perceived social network, and area satisfaction. Data were analysed using an ordered logistic regression model controlling for a range of socio-demographic factors. Results: There was an inverse association between self-perceived strength of social networks and levels of psychological distress (OR = 0.77; 95%CI: 0.70, 0.85) and between area satisfaction and levels of psychological distress (OR = 0.77; 95%CI: 0.69, 0.87). There was a direct association between living with parents or in-laws and levels of psychological distress (OR = 1.50; 95%CI: 1.16, 1.96). There was no statistically significant association between living with a partner and the level of psychological distress of the pregnant woman after accounting for household income. Conclusion: Living with parents or in-laws is a strong marker for psychological distress. Strategies aiming to build social support networks for women during pregnancy have the potential to provide a significant benefit. Policies promoting stable family relationships and networks through community development could also be effective in promoting the welfare of pregnant women.

Using mathematical modelling to evaluate drivers and predict trajectories of HIV and STI epidemics in South East Asian and Australian populations

Objective To evaluate the potential impact of the current global economic crisis (GEC) on the spread of HIV. Design To evaluate the impact of the economic downturn we studied two distinct HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia: the generalized epidemic in Cambodia where incidence is declining and the epidemic in Papua New Guinea (PNG) which is in an expansion phase. Methods Major HIV-related risk factors that may change due to the GEC were identified and a dynamic mathematical transmission model was developed and used to forecast HIV prevalence, diagnoses, and incidence in Cambodia and PNG over the next 3 years. Results In Cambodia, the total numbers of HIV diagnoses are not expected to be largely affected. However, an estimated increase of up to 10% in incident cases of HIV, due to potential changes in behavior, may not be observed by the surveillance system. In PNG, HIV incidence and diagnoses could be more affected by the GEC, resulting in respective increases of up to 17% and 11% over the next 3 years. Decreases in VCT and education programs are the factors that may be of greatest concern in both settings. A reduction in the rollout of antiretroviral therapy could increase the number of AIDS-related deaths (by up to 7.5% after 3 years). Conclusions The GEC is likely to have a modest impact on HIV epidemics. However, there are plausible conditions under which the economic downturns can noticeably influence epidemic trends. This study highlights the high importance of maintaining funding for HIV programs.

Introspective service interface synthesis in business networks

Service mismatches involve the adaptation of structural and behavioural interfaces of services, which in practice incurs long lead times through manual, coding e ort. We propose a framework, complementary to conventional service adaptation, to extract comprehensive and seman- tically normalised service interfaces, useful for interoperability in large business networks and the Internet of Services. The framework supports introspection and analysis of large and overloaded operational signa- tures to derive focal artefacts, namely the underlying business objects of services. A more simpli ed and comprehensive service interface layer is created based on these, and rendered into semantically normalised in- terfaces, given an ontology accrued through the framework from service analysis history. This opens up the prospect of supporting capability comparisons across services, and run-time request backtracking and ad- justment, as consumers discover new features of a service's operations through corresponding features of similar services. This paper provides a rst exposition of the service interface synthesis framework, describing patterns having novel requirements for unilateral service adaptation, and algorithms for interface introspection and business object alignment. A prototype implementation and analysis of web services drawn from com- mercial logistic systems are used to validate the algorithms and identify open challenges and future research directions.

Head and neck squamous-cell cancer and its association with polymorphic enzymes of xenobiotic metabolism and repair

Tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, and occupational exposures to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons are the major proven risk factors for human head and neck squamous-cell cancer (HNSCC). Major research focus on gene-environment interactions concerning HNSCC has been on genes encoding enzymes of metabolism for tobacco smoke constituents and repair enzymes. To investigate the role of genetically determined individual predispositions in enzymes of xenobiotic metabolism and in repair enzymes under the exogenous risk factor tobacco smoke in the carcinogenesis of HNSCC, we conducted a case-control study on 312 cases and 300 noncancer controls. We focused on the impact of 22 sequence variations in CYP1A1, CYP1B1, CYP2E1, ERCC2/XPD, GSTM1, GSTP1, GSTT1, NAT2, NQO1, and XRCC1. To assess relevant main and interactive effects of polymorphic genes on the susceptibility to HNSCC we used statistical models such as logic regression and a Bayesian version of logic regression. In subgroup analysis of nonsmokers, main effects in ERCC2 (Lys751Gln) C/C genotype and combined ERCC2 (Arg156Arg) C/A and A/A genotypes were predominant. When stratifying for smokers, the data revealed main effects on combined CYP1B1 (Leu432Val) C/G and G/G genotypes, followed by CYP1B1 (Leu432Val) G/G genotype and CYP2E1 (-70G>T) G/T genotype. When fitting logistic regression models including relevant main effects and interactions in smokers, we found relevant associations of CYP1B1 (Leu432Val) C/G genotype and CYP2E1 (-70G>T) G/T genotype (OR, 10.84; 95% CI, 1.64-71.53) as well as CYP1B1 (Leu432Val) G/G genotype and GSTM1 null/null genotype (OR, 11.79; 95% CI, 2.18-63.77) with HNSCC. The findings underline the relevance of genotypes of polymorphic CYP1B1 combined with exposures to tobacco smoke.

Spatial-temporal epidemiological analyses of two sympatric, co-endemic alphaviral diseases in Queensland, Australia

Background: The two most reported mosquito-borne diseases in Queensland, a northern state of Australia, are Ross River virus (RRV) disease and Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease. Both diseases are endemic in Queensland and have similar clinical symptoms and comparable transmission cycles involving a complex inter-relationship between human hosts, various mosquito vectors, and a range of nonhuman vertebrate hosts, including marsupial mammals that are unique to the Australasian region. Although these viruses are thought to share similar vectors and vertebrate hosts, RRV is four times more prevalent than BFV in Queensland. Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of BFV and RRV human disease notification data collected from 1995 to 2007 in Queensland to ascertain whether there were differences in the incidence patterns of RRV and BFV disease. In particular, we compared the temporal incidence and spatial distribution of both diseases and considered the relationship between their disease dynamics. We also investigated whether a peak in BFV incidence during spring was indicative of the following RRV and BFV transmission season incidence levels. Results: Although there were large differences in the notification rates of the two diseases, they had similar annual temporal patterns, but there were regional variations between the length and magnitude of the transmission seasons. During periods of increased disease activity, however, there was no association between the dynamics of the two diseases. Conclusions: The results from this study suggest that while RRV and BFV share similar mosquito vectors, there are significant differences in the ecology of these viruses that result in different epidemic patterns of disease incidence. Further investigation is required into the ecology of each virus to determine which factors are important in promoting RRV and BFV disease outbreaks.

Integrating the impact of climate into event based failure models for water pipes

This paper presents an event-based failure model to predict the number of failures that occur in water distribution assets. Often, such models have been based on analysis of historical failure data combined with pipe characteristics and environmental conditions. In this paper weather data have been added to the model to take into account the commonly observed seasonal variation of the failure rate. The theoretical basis of existing logistic regression models is briefly described in this paper, along with the refinements made to the model for inclusion of seasonal variation of weather. The performance of these refinements is tested using data from two Australian water authorities.

Commitment to internationalisation : an extension of the internationalisation process model

Notwithstanding the interest over many years by scholars in modeling the internationalization of the firm, the initial transition for the firm from domestic to international operations remains under-researched. We identify the behavioral factors that are important at the pre-internationalization state and discuss how they may interrelate to influence a decision to commit to internationalization through export commencement. We study export commitment by proposing and constructing an index that incorporates the factors that influence a firm’s propensity to commit to export activities. Utilizing the items from this index in a logistic regression analysis, we distinguish between the pre-internationalization characteristics of exporting and non-exporting firms to better understand the key influences in export commitment. Implications are discussed.

Impact of child labor on academic performance : evidence from the program "Edúcame Primero Colombia"

In this study, the effects of different variables of child labor on academic performance are investigated. To this end, 3302 children participating in the child labor eradication program “Edúcame Primero Colombia” were interviewed. The interview format used for the children's enrollment into the program was a template from which socioeconomic conditions, academic performance, and child labor variables were evaluated. The academic performance factor was determined using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The data were analyzed through a logistic regression model that took into account children who engaged in a type of labor (n = 921). The results showed that labor conditions, the number of weekly hours dedicated to work, and the presence of work scheduled in the morning negatively affected the academic performance of child laborers. These results show that the relationship between child labor and academic performance is based on the conflict between these two activities. These results do not indicate a linear and simple relationship associated with the recognition of the presence or absence of child labor. This study has implications for the formulation of policies, programs, and interventions for preventing, eradicating, and attenuating the negative effects of child labor on the social and educational development of children.

Correlates of perceiving human resource management as a 'problem' in smaller firms

In this paper we investigate factors likely to correlate with human resource management (HRM) being perceived as a problem in smaller firms. The owner-manager and firm characteristics identified recognise that managerial ‘problems’ can result from a firm’s phase of growth, as well as the way in which an owner-manager’s capacity and characteristics affect their interpretation of such. From a survey of 1200 smaller firms in south east Melbourne (Australia), we use logistic regression on data from 428 respondents to assess organisational and individual factors correlating with perceiving HRM, broadly defined, to be a problem. The highest odds of this occurring were associated with being a larger manufacturing firm which was in a phase of growth other than diversification and which had a long-tenured manager who based the firm’s competitive success on factors other than the quality of staff. Knowing these correlates means assistance to help solve the perceived ‘problem’ with HRM can be more effectively targeted.

Eccentric hamstring strength and hamstring injury risk in Australian footballers

Purpose Is eccentric hamstring strength and between limb imbalance in eccentric strength, measured during the Nordic hamstring exercise, a risk factor for hamstring strain injury (HSI)? Methods Elite Australian footballers (n=210) from five different teams participated. Eccentric hamstring strength during the Nordic was taken at the commencement and conclusion of preseason training and in season. Injury history and demographic data were also collected. Reports on prospectively occurring HSIs were completed by team medical staff. Relative risk (RR) was determined for univariate data and logistic regression was employed for multivariate data. Results Twenty-eight HSIs were recorded. Eccentric hamstring strength below 256N at the start of preseason and 279N at the end of preseason increased risk of future HSI 2.7 (relative risk, 2.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.3 to 5.5; p = 0.006) and 4.3 fold (relative risk, 4.3; 95% confidence interval, 1.7 to 11.0; p = 0.002) respectively. Between limb imbalance in strength of greater than 10% did not increase the risk of future HSI. Univariate analysis did not reveal a significantly greater relative risk for future HSI in athletes who had sustained a lower limb injury of any kind within the last 12 months. Logistic regression revealed interactions between both athlete age and history of HSI with eccentric hamstring strength, whereby the likelihood of future HSI in older athletes or athletes with a history of HSI was reduced if an athlete had high levels of eccentric strength. Conclusion Low levels of eccentric hamstring strength increased the risk of future HSI. Interaction effects suggest that the additional risk of future HSI associated with advancing age or previous injury was mitigated by higher levels of eccentric hamstring strength.

Prevalence of asymptomatic malaria and bed net ownership and use in Bhutan, 2013 : a country earmarked for malaria elimination

Background With dwindling malaria cases in Bhutan in recent years, the government of Bhutan has made plans for malaria elimination by 2016. This study aimed to determine coverage, use and ownership of LLINs, as well as the prevalence of asymptomatic malaria at a single time-point, in four sub-districts of Bhutan. Methods A cross-sectional study was carried out in August 2013. Structured questionnaires were administered to a single respondent in each household (HH) in four sub-districts. Four members from 25 HH, randomly selected from each sub-district, were tested using rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) for asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax infection. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify factors associated with LLIN use and maintenance. Results All blood samples from 380 participants tested negative for Plasmodium infections. A total of 1,223 HH (92.5% of total HH) were surveyed for LLIN coverage and use. Coverage of LLINs was 99.0% (1,203/1,223 HH). Factors associated with decreased odds of sleeping under a LLIN included: washing LLINs nine months compared to washing LLINs every six months; HH in the least poor compared to the most poor socio-economic quintile; a HH income of Nu 5,001-10,000 (US$1 = Nu 59.55), and Nu >10,000, compared to HH with income of