Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Palliative care problem severity score: Reliability and acceptability in a national study

Background The Palliative Care Problem Severity Score is a clinician-rated tool to assess problem severity in four palliative care domains (pain, other symptoms, psychological/spiritual, family/carer problems) using a 4-point categorical scale (absent, mild, moderate, severe). Aim To test the reliability and acceptability of the Palliative Care Problem Severity Score. Design: Multi-centre, cross-sectional study involving pairs of clinicians independently rating problem severity using the tool. Setting/participants Clinicians from 10 Australian palliative care services: 9 inpatient units and 1 mixed inpatient/community-based service. Results A total of 102 clinicians participated, with almost 600 paired assessments completed for each domain, involving 420 patients. A total of 91% of paired assessments were undertaken within 2 h. Strength of agreement for three of the four domains was moderate: pain (Kappa = 0.42, 95% confidence interval = 0.36 to 0.49); psychological/spiritual (Kappa = 0.48, 95% confidence interval = 0.42 to 0.54); family/carer (Kappa = 0.45, 95% confidence interval = 0.40 to 0.52). Strength of agreement for the remaining domain (other symptoms) was fair (Kappa = 0.38, 95% confidence interval = 0.32 to 0.45). Conclusion The Palliative Care Problem Severity Score is an acceptable measure, with moderate reliability across three domains. Variability in inter-rater reliability across sites and participant feedback indicate that ongoing education is required to ensure that clinicians understand the purpose of the tool and each of its domains. Raters familiar with the patient they were assessing found it easier to assign problem severity, but this did not improve inter-rater reliability.

ACE research briefing paper 009: Global Entrepreneurship Monitor: GEM Australia - 2014 National Report

Most policymakers and academics agree that entrepreneurship is critical to the development and wellbeing of society. Entrepreneurs create jobs. They drive and shape innovation, thereby speeding up structural changes in the economy. By introducing new competition they contribute indirectly to increased productivity and overall economic activity. Entrepreneurship is thus a catalyst for economic growth and national competitiveness. In 2014, the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM)conducted its 15th annual survey of the rate and profile of entrepreneurial activity around the globe. GEM interviewed over 206,000 adults aged 18–64 in 70 economies, spanning diverse geographies and a range of development levels. The Australian Centre for Entrepreneurship Research (ACE) participated as the Australian GEM partner, surveying 2,177 Australian adults. This report provides a summary of entrepreneurship in Australia as measured by GEM, and benchmarks this against other countries. We compare the level of entrepreneurship in the population across different phases of the entrepreneurial process, and provide a profile of some key characteristics of entrepreneurs and the businesses they are starting. We also report on some of the institutional and framework conditions that support entrepreneurship.

The National Road Safety Partnership Program providing a pathway for any business/organisation to create a positive road safety culture

The National Road Safety Partnership Program (NRSPP) is an industry-led collaborative network which aims to support Australian businesses in developing a positive road safety culture. It aims to help businesses to protect their employees and the public, not only during work hours, but also when their staff are ‘off-duty’. How do we engage and help an organisation minimise work-related vehicle crashes and their consequences both internally, and within the broader community? The first step is helping an organisation to understand the true cost of its road incidents. Larger organisations often wear the costs without knowing the true impact to their bottom line. All they perceive is the change in insurance or vehicle repairs. Understanding the true cost should help mobilise a business’s leadership to do more. The next step is ensuring the business undertakes an informed, structured, evidence-based pathway which will guide them around the costly pitfalls. A pathway based around the safe system approach with buy-in at the top which brings the workforce along. The final step, benchmarking, allows the organisation to measure and track its change. This symposium will explore the pathway steps for organisations using NRSPP resources to become engaged in road safety. The 'Total Cost of Risk' calculator has been developed by Zurich, tested in Europe by Nestle and modified by NRSPP for Australia. This provides the first crucial step. The next step is a structured approach through the Workplace Road Safety Guide using experts and industry to discuss the preferred safe system approach which can then link into the national Benchmarking Project. The outputs from the symposium can help frame a pathway for organisations to follow through the NRSPP website.

The Great Gatsby and Ned Kelly: Telling national iconic stories through a transnational lens

This chapter will examine how transnational film making allows national and iconic stories to shift outside their imposed national boundaries, freeing them from “nation building” constraints and predetermined ideological motivations. Each interpretation creates one more dimension to the story’s complexity and hybridity assuring its continuance and relevance into the future. Each new film version, and in the case of iconic stories, each new transnational film version, breathes new energy and life into the stories and also stops monolithic ownership of them. What is also of interest in this chapter is the judgement cast upon each of the retelling and adaptations of these iconic stories. Every adaptation is weighed up and judged against a mythic ideal, and as such, each always falls short of imagined expectations. But in a paradoxical fashion, it is this failure to capture that provides the impetus for the story’s future retellings.

Using an ‘interpretative model’ for contextual design of heritage landscape databases: The case of St Helena Island National Park in Queensland, Australia

Due to the increasing speed of landscape changes and the massive development of computer technologies, the methods of representing heritage landscapes using digital tools have become a worldwide concern in conservation research. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate how an ‘interpretative model’ can be used for contextual design of heritage landscape information systems. This approach is explored through building a geographic information system database for St Helena Island national park in Moreton Bay, South East Queensland, Australia. Stakeholders' interpretations of this landscape were collected through interviews, and then used as a framework for designing the database. The designed database is a digital inventory providing contextual descriptions of the historic infrastructure remnants on St Helena Island. It also reveals the priorities of different sites in terms of historic research, landscape restoration, and tourism development. Additionally, this database produces thematic maps of the intangible heritage values, which could be used for landscape interpretation. This approach is different from the existing methods because building a heritage information system is deemed as an interpretative activity, rather than a value-free replication of the physical environment. This approach also shows how a cultural landscape methodology can be used to create a flexible information system for heritage conservation. The conclusion is that an ‘interpretative model’ of database design facilitates a more explicit focus on information support, and is a potentially effective approach to user-centred design of geographic information systems.

Governance and regional variation of homicide rates: Evidence from cross-national data

Criminological theories of cross-national studies of homicide have underestimated the effects of quality governance of liberal democracy and region. Data sets from several sources are combined and a comprehensive model of homicide is proposed. Results of the spatial regression model, which controls for the effect of spatial autocorrelation, show that quality governance, human development, economic inequality, and ethnic heterogeneity are statistically significant in predicting homicide. In addition, regions of Latin America and non-Muslim Sub-Saharan Africa have significantly higher rates of homicides ceteris paribus while the effects of East Asian countries and Islamic societies are not statistically significant. These findings are consistent with the expectation of the new modernization and regional theories.

Feeding mode of Australian infants in the first 12 months of life: An assessment against national breastfeeding indicators

Background: In 2011, Australia published a set of 6 population-level indicators assessing breastfeeding, formula use, and the introduction of soft/semisolid/solid foods. Objectives: This study aimed to report the feeding practices of Australian infants against these indicators and determine the predictors of early breastfeeding cessation and introduction of solids. Methods: Mother–infant dyads (N = 1470) were recruited postnatally in 2 Australian capital cities and regional areas of 1 state between February 2008 and March 2009. Demographic and feeding intention data were collected by self-completed questionnaire at infant birth, with feeding practices (current feeding mode, age of breastfeeding cessation, age of formula and/or solids introduction) reported when the infant was between 4 and 7 months of age, and around 13 months of age. Multiple logistic regression was used to determine the predictors of breastfeeding cessation and solids introduction. Results: Although initiation of breastfeeding was almost universal (93.3%), less than half of the infants were breastfed to 6 months (41.7%) and 33.3% were receiving solids by 4 months. Women who were socially disadvantaged, younger, less educated, unpartnered, primiparous, and/or overweight were most likely to have ceased breastfeeding before 6 months of age, and younger and/or less educated women were most likely to have introduced solid food by 4 months of age. Not producing adequate milk was the most common reason provided for cessation of breastfeeding. Conclusion: The feeding behaviors of Australian infants in the first 12 months fall well short of recommendations. Women need anticipatory guidance as to the indicators of breastfeeding success and the tendency of women to doubt the adequacy of their breast milk supply warrants further investigation.

Understanding the determinants of Australian hospital nurses' hand hygiene decisions following the implementation of a national hand hygiene initiative

Hand hygiene is the primary measure in hospitals to reduce the spread of infections, with nurses experiencing the greatest frequency of patient contact. The ‘5 critical moments’ of hand hygiene initiative has been implemented in hospitals across Australia, accompanied by awareness-raising, staff training and auditing. The aim of this study was to understand the determinants of nurses’ hand hygiene decisions, using an extension of a common health decision-making model, the theory of planned behaviour (TPB), to inform future health education strategies to increase compliance. Nurses from 50 Australian hospitals (n = 2378) completed standard TPB measures (attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioural control [PBC], intention) and the extended variables of group norm, risk perceptions (susceptibility, severity) and knowledge (subjective, objective) at Time 1, while a sub-sample (n = 797) reported their hand hygiene behaviour 2 weeks later. Regression analyses identified subjective norm, PBC, group norm, subjective knowledge and risk susceptibility as the significant predictors of nurses’ hand hygiene intentions, with intention and PBC predicting their compliance behaviour. Rather than targeting attitudes which are already very favourable among nurses, health education strategies should focus on normative influences and perceptions of control and risk in efforts to encourage hand hygiene adherence.

Australian innovation ecosystem: A critical review of the national innovation support mechanisms

Innovation is understood as the combination of existing ideas or the generation of new ideas into new processes, products and services, and widely viewed as the main driver of growth in contemporary economies. In the age of the knowledge economy, successful economic development is intimately linked to a country’s capacity to generate, acquire, absorb, disseminate, and apply innovation towards advanced technology products and services. This development approach is labelled as knowledge-based economic development and highly associated with a capacity embodied in a country’s national innovation ecosystem. The research reported in this paper aims to critically review the Australian innovation ecosystem in order to provide a better understanding on the potential impacts of policy and support mechanisms on the innovation and knowledge generation capacity. The investigation places Australia’s innovation system and national-level innovation support mechanisms under the microscope. The methodology of the study is twofold. Firstly, it undertakes a critical review of the literature and government policy documents to better understand the innovation policy and support mechanisms in the country. It, then, conducts a survey to capture Australian innovation companies’ perceptions on the role and effectiveness of the existing innovation incentive programs. The paper concludes with a discussion on the key insights and findings and potential policy and support directions of the country to achieve a flourishing knowledge economy.

Science, ICT and Mathematics Education in Rural and Regional Australia: The SiMERR National Survey

The SiMERR National Survey was one of the first priorities of the National Centre of Science, Information and Communication Technology and Mathematics Education for Rural and Regional Australia (SiMERR Australia), established at the University of New England in July 2004 through a federal government grant. With university based ‘hubs’ in each state and territory, SiMERR Australia aims to support rural and regional teachers, students and communities in improving educational outcomes in these subject areas. The purpose of the survey was to identify the key issues affecting these outcomes. The National Survey makes six substantial contributions to our understanding of issues in rural education. First, it focuses specifically on school science, ICT and mathematics education, rather than on education more generally. Second, it compares the different circumstances and needs of teachers across a nationally agreed geographical framework, and quantifies these differences. Third, it compares the circumstances and needs of teachers in schools with different proportions of Indigenous students. Fourth, it provides greater detail than previous studies on the specific needs of schools and teachers in these subject areas. Fifth, the analyses of teacher ‘needs’ have been controlled for the socio-economic background of school locations, resulting in findings that are more tightly associated with geographic location than with economic circumstances. Finally, most previous reports on rural education in Australia were based upon focus interviews, public submissions or secondary analyses of available data. In contrast, the National Survey has generated a sizable body of original quantitative and qualitative data.

Remembering the Peel Island Lazaret through re-imagining the Teerk Roo Ra forest

This paper discusses my current research which aims to re-member the site of the Peel Island Lazaret through re-imagining the Teerk Roo Ra forest as a series of animated artworks. Teerk Roo Ra National Park (formally known as Peel Island) is a small island in Moreton Bay, Queensland and is visible on the ferry journey from Cleveland to Stradbroke Island. The island has an intriguing history, and is the site of a former Lazaret and quarantine station. The Lazaret treated patients diagnosed with Hansen’s disease (or Leprosy), and operated between 1907 and 1959. In this paper I will discuss conceptions of the non-indigenous historical context of the Peel Island Lazaret and the notion of the liminal state (Turner,1967). Through this discussion conceptions of place from Australian cultural theorist Ross Gibson are also examined. The concept of two overlapping realms is then explored through the clues and shared stories about the people who inhabited the site. There is then an explanation of my own approach to re-member this place through re-imagining the forest that witnessed the events of the Lazaret. I then draw on theories of the uncanny from German Psychiatrist Ernst Jentsch, Austrian Neurologist Sigmund Freud and South African animation theorist Meg Rickards to argue that my experience of the forest of Teerk Roo Ra was an uncanny experience where two worlds or states of mind existed simultaneously and overlapped, causing a viscerally unsettling uncanny experience. Through an analysis of Czech Surrealist Animator Jan Švankmajer’s cinematic narrative Down to the cellar (1982), my creative work Structure #24(2011), and Australian Artist Patricia Piccinini’s cinematic artwork The Gathering (2007), I discuss the situation of the inanimate and the animate co-existing simultaneously. Using this approach I propose an understanding of the uncanny as an intellectual uncertainty as outlined by Jentsch (1906). I also develop the notion of the familiar being concealed and becoming unfamiliar through mimicry (Freud, 1919). These discussions form an introduction to my creative work Nocturne #5(2014) which re-members the forests of Teerk Roo Ra as an uncanny place primarily expressed through animation.

Achieving a national sample of nursing homes: Balancing probability techniques and practicalities

Sampling design is critical to the quality of quantitative research, yet it does not always receive appropriate attention in nursing research. The current article details how balancing probability techniques with practical considerations produced a representative sample of Australian nursing homes (NHs). Budgetary, logistical, and statistical constraints were managed by excluding some NHs (e.g., those too difficult to access) from the sampling frame; a stratified, random sampling methodology yielded a final sample of 53 NHs from a population of 2,774. In testing the adequacy of representation of the study population, chi-square tests for goodness of fit generated nonsignificant results for distribution by distance from major city and type of organization. A significant result for state/territory was expected and was easily corrected for by the application of weights. The current article provides recommendations for conducting high-quality, probability-based samples and stresses the importance of testing the representativeness of achieved samples.

Identifying advanced practice: A national survey of a nursing workforce

Background The size and flexibility of the nursing workforce has positioned nursing as central to the goals of health service improvement. Nursing's response to meeting these goals has resulted in proliferation of advanced practice nursing with a confusing array of practice profiles, titles and roles. Whilst numerous models and definitions of advanced practice nursing have been developed there is scant published research of significant scope that supports these models. Consequently there is an ongoing call in the literature for clarity and stability in nomenclature, and confusion in the health industry on how to optimise the utility of advanced practice nursing. Objectives To identify and delineate advanced practice from other levels of nursing practice through examination of a national nursing workforce. Design A cross-sectional electronic survey of nurses using the validated Advanced Practice Role Delineation tool based on the Strong Model of Advanced Practice. Participants Study participants were registered nurses employed in a clinical service environment across all states and territories of Australia. Methods A sample of 5662 registered nurses participated in the study. Domain means for each participant were calculated then means for nursing position titles were calculated. Position titles were grouped by delineation and were compared with one-way analysis of variance on domain means. The alpha for all tests was set at 0.05. Significant effects were examined with Scheffe post hoc comparisons to control for Type 1 error. Results The survey tool was able to identify position titles where nurses were practicing at an advanced level and to delineate this cohort from other levels of nursing practice, including nurse practitioner. The results show that nurses who practice at an advanced level are characterised by high mean scores across all Domains of the Strong Model of Advanced Practice. The mean scores of advanced practice nurses were significantly different from nurse practitioners in the Direct Care Domain and significantly different from other levels of nurse across all domains. Conclusions The study results show that the nurse practitioner, advanced practice nurse and foundation level registered nurse have different patterns of practice and the Advanced Practice Role Delineation tool has the capacity to clearly delineate and define advanced practice nursing. These findings make a significant contribution to the international debate and show that the profession can now identify what is and what is not advanced practice in nursing.