Simulation-based fully Bayesian experimental design for mixed effects models

In this paper, we present fully Bayesian experimental designs for nonlinear mixed effects models, in which we develop simulation-based optimal design methods to search over both continuous and discrete design spaces. Although Bayesian inference has commonly been performed on nonlinear mixed effects models, there is a lack of research into performing Bayesian optimal design for nonlinear mixed effects models that require searches to be performed over several design variables. This is likely due to the fact that it is much more computationally intensive to perform optimal experimental design for nonlinear mixed effects models than it is to perform inference in the Bayesian framework. In this paper, the design problem is to determine the optimal number of subjects and samples per subject, as well as the (near) optimal urine sampling times for a population pharmacokinetic study in horses, so that the population pharmacokinetic parameters can be precisely estimated, subject to cost constraints. The optimal sampling strategies, in terms of the number of subjects and the number of samples per subject, were found to be substantially different between the examples considered in this work, which highlights the fact that the designs are rather problem-dependent and require optimisation using the methods presented in this paper.

Agent-based modelling simulation case study : assessment of airport check-in and evacuation process by considering group travel behaviour of air passengers

Passenger experience has become a major factor that influences the success of an airport. In this context, passenger flow simulation has been used in designing and managing airports. However, most passenger flow simulations failed to consider the group dynamics when developing passenger flow models. In this paper, an agent-based model is presented to simulate passenger behaviour at the airport check-in and evacuation process. The simulation results show that the passenger behaviour can have significant influences on the performance and utilisation of services in airport terminals. The model was created using AnyLogic software and its parameters were initialised using recent research data published in the literature.

Half-wave cycloconverter-based photovoltaic microinverter topology with phase-shift power modulation

A grid-connected microinverter with a reduced number of power conversion stages and fewer passive components is proposed. A high-frequency transformer and a series-resonant tank are used to interface the full-bridge inverter to the half-wave cycloconverter. All power switches are switched with zero-voltage switching. Phase-shift power modulation is used to control the output power of the inverter. A steady-state analysis of the proposed topology is presented to determine the average output power of the inverter. Analysis of soft switching of the full-bridge and the half-wave cycloconverter is presented with respect to voltage gain, quality factor, and phase shift of the inverter. Simulation and experimental results are presented to validate the operation of the proposed topology.

Direct integration of battery energy storage systems in distributed power generation

In this paper, a wind energy conversion system interfaced to the grid using a dual inverter is proposed. One of the two inverters in the dual inverter is connected to the rectified output of the wind generator while the other is directly connected to a battery energy storage system (BESS). This approach eliminates the need for an additional dc-dc converter and thus reduces power losses, cost, and complexity. The main issue with this scheme is uncorrelated dynamic changes in dc-link voltages that results in unevenly distributed space vectors. A detailed analysis on the effects of these variations is presented in this paper. Furthermore, a modified modulation technique is proposed to produce undistorted currents even in the presence of unevenly distributed and dynamically changing space vectors. An analysis on the battery charging/discharging process and maximum power point tracking of the wind turbine generator is also presented. Simulation and experimental results are presented to verify the efficacy of the proposed modulation technique and battery charging/discharging process.

Design of a robust grid interface system for PMSG-based wind turbine generators

A robust and reliable grid power interface system for wind turbines using a permanent-magnet synchronous generator (PMSG) is proposed in this paper, where an integration of a generator-side three-switch buck-type rectifier and a grid-side Z-source inverter is employed as a bridge between the generator and the grid. The modulation strategy for the proposed topology is developed from space-vector modulation and Z-source network operation principles. Two PMSG control methods, namely, unity-power-factor control and rotor-flux-orientation control (Id = 0), are studied to establish an optimized control scheme for the generator-side three-switch buck-type rectifier. The system control scheme decouples active- and reactive-power control through voltage-oriented control and optimizes PMSG control for the grid- and generator-side converters independently. Maximum power point tracking is implemented by adjusting the shoot-through duty cycles of the Z-source network. The design considerations of the passive components are also provided. The performances and practicalities of the designed architecture have been verified by simulations and experiments.

STI-GMaS : an open-source environment for simulation of sexually-transmitted infections

Background Sexually-transmitted pathogens often have severe reproductive health implications if treatment is delayed or absent, especially in females. The complex processes of disease progression, namely replication and ascension of the infection through the genital tract, span both extracellular and intracellular physiological scales, and in females can vary over the distinct phases of the menstrual cycle. The complexity of these processes, coupled with the common impossibility of obtaining comprehensive and sequential clinical data from individual human patients, makes mathematical and computational modelling valuable tools in developing our understanding of the infection, with a view to identifying new interventions. While many within-host models of sexually-transmitted infections (STIs) are available in existing literature, these models are difficult to deploy in clinical/experimental settings since simulations often require complex computational approaches. Results We present STI-GMaS (Sexually-Transmitted Infections – Graphical Modelling and Simulation), an environment for simulation of STI models, with a view to stimulating the uptake of these models within the laboratory or clinic. The software currently focuses upon the representative case-study of Chlamydia trachomatis, the most common sexually-transmitted bacterial pathogen of humans. Here, we demonstrate the use of a hybrid PDE–cellular automata model for simulation of a hypothetical Chlamydia vaccination, demonstrating the effect of a vaccine-induced antibody in preventing the infection from ascending to above the cervix. This example illustrates the ease with which existing models can be adapted to describe new studies, and its careful parameterisation within STI-GMaS facilitates future tuning to experimental data as they arise. Conclusions STI-GMaS represents the first software designed explicitly for in-silico simulation of STI models by non-theoreticians, thus presenting a novel route to bridging the gap between computational and clinical/experimental disciplines. With the propensity for model reuse and extension, there is much scope within STI-GMaS to allow clinical and experimental studies to inform model inputs and drive future model development. Many of the modelling paradigms and software design principles deployed to date transfer readily to other STIs, both bacterial and viral; forthcoming releases of STI-GMaS will extend the software to incorporate a more diverse range of infections.

Numerical investigation into the buckling behavior of advanced grid stiffened composite cylindrical shell

Advanced grid stiffened composite cylindrical shell is widely adopted in advanced structures due to its exceptional mechanical properties. Buckling is a main failure mode of advanced grid stiffened structures in engineering, which calls for increasing attention. In this paper, the buckling response of advanced grid stiffened structure is investigated by three different means including equivalent stiffness model, finite element model and a hybrid model (H-model) that combines equivalent stiffness model with finite element model. Buckling experiment is carried out on an advanced grid stiffened structure to validate the efficiency of different modeling methods. Based on the comparison, the characteristics of different methods are independently evaluated. It is arguable that, by considering the defects of material, finite element model is a suitable numerical tool for the buckling analysis of advanced grid stiffened structures.

Intercalation of dodecylamine into kaolinite and its layering structure investigated by molecular dynamics simulation

Dodecylamine was successfully intercalated into the layer space of kaolinite by utilizing the methanol treated kaolinite–dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) intercalation complex as an intermediate. The basal spacing of kaolinite, measured by X-ray diffraction (XRD), increased from 0.72 nm to 4.29 nm after the intercalation of dodecylamine. Also, the significant variation observed in the Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR) spectra of kaolinite when intercalated with dodecylamine verified the feasibility of intercalation of dodecylamine into kaolinite. Isothermal-isobaric (NPT) molecular dynamics simulation with the use of Dreiding force field was performed to probe into the layering behavior and structure of nanoconfined dodecylamine in the kaolinite gallery. The concentration profiles of the nitrogen atom, methyl group and methylene group of intercalated dodecylamine molecules in the direction perpendicular to the kaolinite basal surface indicated that the alkyl chains within the interlayer space of kaolinite exhibited an obvious layering structure. However, the unified bilayer, pseudo-trilayer, or paraffin-type arrangements of alkyl chains deduced based on their chain length combined with the measured basal spacing of organoclays were not found in this study. The alkyl chains aggregated to a mixture of ordered paraffin-type-like structure and disordered gauche conformation in the middle interlayer space of kaolinite, and some alkyl chains arranged in two bilayer structures, in which one was close to the silica tetrahedron surface, and the other was close to the alumina octahedron surface with their alkyl chains parallel to the kaolinite basal surface.

Two dynamic discrete choice estimation problems and simulation method solutions

This paper considers two problems that frequently arise in dynamic discrete choice problems but have not received much attention with regard to simulation methods. The first problem is how to simulate unbiased simulators of probabilities conditional on past history. The second is simulating a discrete transition probability model when the underlying dependent variable is really continuous. Both methods work well relative to reasonable alternatives in the application discussed. However, in both cases, for this application, simpler methods also provide reasonably good results.

Simulation-based estimation

In this paper, I present a number of leading examples in the empirical literature that use simulation-based estimation methods. For each example, I describe the model, why simulation is needed, and how to simulate the relevant object. There is a section on simulation methods and another on simulations-based estimation methods. The paper concludes by considering the significance of each of the examples discussed a commenting on potential future areas of interest.

CFD and experimental modelling of an impinging jet for thunderstorm downburst simulation

A thunderstorm downburst in its simplest form can be modelled as a steady flow impinging air jet. Although this simplification neglects some important atmospheric and physical parameters it has proven to be a useful tool for understanding the kinematics of these events. Assuming this simple impinging jet model also allows numerical models to be developed which can be directly compared with experimental results to validate the use of CFD. Confidence gained from these simulations will allow the use of more complex atmospheric impinging jet models that cannot be directly validated. Thunderstorm downbursts are important for wind engineers because in many parts of the world they produce the design wind speeds used in design standards, but are not structurally represented in these documents.

Simulation of carbon arc discharge for the synthesis of nanotubes

Arc discharge ablation with a catalyst-filled carbon anode in a helium background was used for the synthesis of graphene and carbon nanotubes. In this paper, we present the results of the numerical simulation of the distribution of various plasma parameters in discharge, as well as the distribution of carbon flux on the nanotube surface, for the typical discharge with an arc current of 60 A and a background gas pressure of 68 kPa.

Simulation and visualization of self-assembled nanodevice networks synthesized via plasma–surface interaction

Using advanced visualization techniques, a comprehensive visualization of all the stages of the self-organized growth of internetworked nanostructures on plasma-exposed surface has been made. Atomistic kinetic Monte Carlo simulation for the initial stage of deposition, with 3-D visualization of the whole system and half-tone visualization of the density field of the adsorbed atoms, makes it possible to implement a multiscale predictive modeling of the development of the nanoscale system.