585 resultados para Deterministic Trend
Resumo:
This paper examines the case of a procurement auction for a single project, in which the breakdown of the winning bid into its component items determines the value of payments subsequently made to bidder as the work progresses. Unbalanced bidding, or bid skewing, involves the uneven distribution of mark-up among the component items in such a way as to attempt to derive increased benefit to the unbalancer but without involving any change in the total bid. One form of unbalanced bidding for example, termed Front Loading (FL), is thought to be widespread in practice. This involves overpricing the work items that occur early in the project and underpricing the work items that occur later in the project in order to enhance the bidder's cash flow. Naturally, auctioners attempt to protect themselves from the effects of unbalancing—typically reserving the right to reject a bid that has been detected as unbalanced. As a result, models have been developed to both unbalance bids and detect unbalanced bids but virtually nothing is known of their use, success or otherwise. This is of particular concern for the detection methods as, without testing, there is no way of knowing the extent to which unbalanced bids are remaining undetected or balanced bids are being falsely detected as unbalanced. This paper reports on a simulation study aimed at demonstrating the likely effects of unbalanced bid detection models in a deterministic environment involving FL unbalancing in a Texas DOT detection setting, in which bids are deemed to be unbalanced if an item exceeds a maximum (or fails to reach a minimum) ‘cut-off’ value determined by the Texas method. A proportion of bids are automatically and maximally unbalanced over a long series of simulated contract projects and the profits and detection rates of both the balancers and unbalancers are compared. The results show that, as expected, the balanced bids are often incorrectly detected as unbalanced, with the rate of (mis)detection increasing with the proportion of FL bidders in the auction. It is also shown that, while the profit for balanced bidders remains the same irrespective of the number of FL bidders involved, the FL bidder's profit increases with the greater proportion of FL bidders present in the auction. Sensitivity tests show the results to be generally robust, with (mis)detection rates increasing further when there are fewer bidders in the auction and when more data are averaged to determine the baseline value, but being smaller or larger with increased cut-off values and increased cost and estimate variability depending on the number of FL bidders involved. The FL bidder's expected benefit from unbalancing, on the other hand, increases, when there are fewer bidders in the auction. It also increases when the cut-off rate and discount rate is increased, when there is less variability in the costs and their estimates, and when less data are used in setting the baseline values.
Resumo:
Mobile telecommunications have become a key lifestyle and technological trend of the twenty first century. In the context of increased urbanism and pressure on cites for citizen engagement for the purpose of creating good public places the potential of these technologies raises critical questions for planning professionals. Even though technology has become integral to all functions within our urban environment, little is known about perceptions and relationship between urban planners and the ubiquitous, ever-present digital layer of urban data and information. This paper explores this issue, via three focus groups and an additional follow-up interview with planners from local and state government, education and private sector. This paper explores the issues of integrating information and communication technologies into planning practice and the affordances that these technologies offer for community consultation and placemaking.
Resumo:
Concern to ensure that all children have access to high quality educational experiences in the early years of life has instigated moves to increase qualifications of staff in the childcare workforce, in particular to increase the number of degree qualified teachers. However existing data suggest that work in the childcare sector is viewed less favourably by those undertaking early childhood education degrees. For most, childcare is not a preferred place of employment. This study asked whether a practicum in a childcare setting would improve attitudes to childcare and willingness to consider working in childcare settings. In a study of a cohort of Bachelor of Education (Early Childhood) students, measures of attitudes to childcare and willingness to work in childcare were taken before and after practicum. Additionally students provided accounts of their practicum experiences. Results indicate a trend in which there was a group increase in positive attitudes and willingness to consider work in childcare but considerable individual differences influenced by the quality of the practicum experience. The relationship with, and model provided by, centre directors and the group leader in the practicum class was identified as key influencing factors. Results are discussed in term of models of pedagogical leadership.
Resumo:
Despite the rapidly urbanising population, public transport usage in metropolitan areas is not growing at a level that corresponds to the trend. Many people are reluctant to travel using public transport, as it is commonly associated with unpleasant experiences such as limited services, long wait time, and crowded spaces. This study aims to explore the use of mobile spatial interactions and services, and investigate their potential to increase the enjoyment of our everyday commuting experience. The main goal is to develop and evaluate mobile-mediated design interventions to foster interactions for and among passengers, as well as between passengers and public transport infrastructures, with the aim to positively influence the experience of commuting. Ultimately, this study hopes to generate findings and knowledge towards creating a more enjoyable public transport experience, as well as to explore innovative uses of mobile technologies and context-aware services for the urban lifestyle.
Resumo:
Preventive Maintenance (PM) is often applied to improve the reliability of production lines. A Split System Approach (SSA) based methodology is presented to assist in making optimal PM decisions for serial production lines. The methodology treats a production line as a complex series system with multiple (imperfect) PM actions over multiple intervals. The conditional and overall reliability of the entire production line over these multiple PM intervals are hierarchically calculated using SSA, and provide a foundation for cost analysis. Both risk-related cost and maintenance-related cost are factored into the methodology as either deterministic or random variables. This SSA based methodology enables Asset Management (AM) decisions to be optimised considering a variety of factors including failure probability, failure cost, maintenance cost, PM performance, and the type of PM strategy. The application of this new methodology and an evaluation of the effects of these factors on PM decisions are demonstrated using an example. The results of this work show that the performance of a PM strategy can be measured by its Total Expected Cost Index (TECI). The optimal PM interval is dependent on TECI, PM performance and types of PM strategies. These factors are interrelated. Generally, it was found that a trade-off between reliability and the number of PM actions needs to be made so that one can minimise Total Expected Cost (TEC) for asset maintenance.
Resumo:
Cost implications related to the physical resources such as land and building in organisation is significant. Management entity of government or private sectors has often ignored the importance and the contribution gained from the physical resources towards their organisation. This source is a precious asset that can generate income if properly managed. This paper aims to explore the current trends in space management internationally, both from the government and private sector perspectives. A case study is conducted to study the level of effectiveness of space management in one of the government institutions in Malaysia. The findings from the case study will be compared with the current international trend of space management. The study will enrich the current understanding of space management in government properties, as well as to compare the level of space management effectiveness of government properties in Malaysia with the international trends and proposed suggestions to improve current practices of space management of Malaysian government’s properties. Keywords:
Resumo:
Secure communications in wireless sensor networks operating under adversarial conditions require providing pairwise (symmetric) keys to sensor nodes. In large scale deployment scenarios, there is no prior knowledge of post deployment network configuration since nodes may be randomly scattered over a hostile territory. Thus, shared keys must be distributed before deployment to provide each node a key-chain. For large sensor networks it is infeasible to store a unique key for all other nodes in the key-chain of a sensor node. Consequently, for secure communication either two nodes have a key in common in their key-chains and they have a wireless link between them, or there is a path, called key-path, among these two nodes where each pair of neighboring nodes on this path have a key in common. Length of the key-path is the key factor for efficiency of the design. This paper presents novel deterministic and hybrid approaches based on Combinatorial Design for deciding how many and which keys to assign to each key-chain before the sensor network deployment. In particular, Balanced Incomplete Block Designs (BIBD) and Generalized Quadrangles (GQ) are mapped to obtain efficient key distribution schemes. Performance and security properties of the proposed schemes are studied both analytically and computationally. Comparison to related work shows that the combinatorial approach produces better connectivity with smaller key-chain sizes.
Resumo:
This paper examines the Rural Schools of Queensland. Starting with Nambour in 1917, the scheme incorporated thirty schools, and operated for over forty years. The rhetoric of the day was that boys and girls from the senior classes of primary school would be provided with elementary instruction of a practical character. In reality, the subjects taught were specifically tailored to provide farm skills to children in rural centres engaged in farming, dairying or fruit growing. Linked to each Rural School was a number of smaller surrounding schools, students from which travelled to the Rural School for special agricultural or domestic instruction. Through this action, the Queensland Department of Public Instruction left no doubt it intended to provide educational support for agrarian change and development within the state; in effect, they had set in motion the creation of a Queensland yeoman class. The Department’s intention was to arrest or reverse the trend toward urbanisation — whilst increasing agricultural productivity — through the making of a farmer born of the land and accepting of the new scientific advances in agriculture.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND: Effective management of chronic diseases such as prostate cancer is important. Research suggests a tendency to use self-care treatment options such as over-the-counter (OTC) complementary medications among prostate cancer patients. The current trend in patient-driven recording of health data in an online Personal Health Record (PHR) presents an opportunity to develop new data-driven approaches for improving prostate cancer patient care. However, the ability of current online solutions to share patients' data for better decision support is limited. An informatics approach may improve online sharing of self-care interventions among these patients. It can also provide better evidence to support decisions made during their self-managed care. AIMS: To identify requirements for an online system and describe a new case-based reasoning (CBR) method for improving self-care of advanced prostate cancer patients in an online PHR environment. METHOD: A non-identifying online survey was conducted to understand self-care patterns among prostate cancer patients and to identify requirements for an online information system. The pilot study was carried out between August 2010 and December 2010. A case-base of 52 patients was developed. RESULTS: The data analysis showed self-care patterns among the prostate cancer patients. Selenium (55%) was the common complementary supplement used by the patients. Paracetamol (about 45%) was the commonly used OTC by the patients. CONCLUSION: The results of this study specified requirements for an online case-based reasoning information system. The outcomes of this study are being incorporated in design of the proposed Artificial Intelligence (Al) driven patient journey browser system. A basic version of the proposed system is currently being considered for implementation.
Resumo:
A 'Gated and Guarded Community' has become a popular trend in the recent years, particularly for housing areas. The increasing in population and income has lead to the increase in housing demand. The 1991 Population Census Report showed that Malaysian population has increased with an average yearly rate of 2.7% per year, that is, from 13.74 million people in 1980 to 19.35 million in 1991, followed by 20.69 million in 1995 and increase to 23.27 in year 2000. This is followed by consistent increase in the average population monthly income. Started from 1995 to 1999, the average annual growth rate of mean monthly income in Malaysia is about 5.2 %, from RM2,020.00 in 1995 to RM2,472.00 in 1999 and increasing constantly. This shows that the human growth usually have correlation between demand, income and housing. This paper presents the factors that involved in determined the Gated and Guarded Community Investment in Malaysia either it is worth to invest or otherwise. Hopefully, the results will also indicate that there may be other factors affecting their investment decision besides security and privacy. This paper is actually to draw attention to some practitioner and collect more information in establishing my research analysis.
Resumo:
In 1993, contrary to the trend towards enterprise bargaining, and despite an employment environment favouring strong managerial prerogative, a small group of employers in the Queensland commercial health and fitness industry sought industrial regulation through an industry-specific award. A range of factors, including increased competition and unscrupulous profiteers damaging the industry’s reputation, triggered the actions as a business strategy. The strategic choices of the employer group, to approach a union to initiate a consent award, are the inverse of behaviours expected under strategic choice theory. This article argues that organizational size, collective employer action, focus on industry rather than organizational outcomes and the traditional industrial relations system providing broader impacts explain their atypical behaviour.
Resumo:
An investigation of the effect of nano particles on natural convection of water based nanofluids contained in an open rectangular cavity is carried out numerically. The flow pattern and heat transfer characteristics are studied for different values of volume fraction in the range 0 0.2 , Rayleigh number in the range 9 1 Ra 10 and the nano particles with different thermo physical properties. It was found that for low Rayleigh numbers, heat transfer exhibits a decreasing trend for increasing values of volume fraction of oxide nanofluids, whereas for higher values of Rayleigh numbers, an increasing trend of heat transfer was observed due to increase in the volume fraction of nanofluids.
Resumo:
Oral squamous cell carcinomas (OSCC) often arise from dysplastic lesions. The role of cancer stem cells in tumour initiation is widely accepted, yet the potential existence of pre-cancerous stem cells in dysplastic tissue has received little attention. Cell lines from oral diseases ranging in severity from dysplasia to malignancy provide opportunity to investigate the involvement of stem cells in malignant progression from dysplasia. Stem cells are functionally defined by their ability to generate hierarchical tissue structures in consortium with spatial regulation. Organotypic cultures readily display tissue hierarchy in vitro; hence, in this study, we compared hierarchical expression of stem cell-associated markers in dermis-based organotypic cultures of oral epithelial cells from normal tissue (OKF6-TERT2), mild dysplasia (DOK), severe dysplasia (POE-9n) and OSCC (PE/CA P J15). Expression of CD44, p75NTR, CD24 and ALDH was studied in monolayers by flow cytometry and in organotypic cultures by immunohistochemistry. Spatial regulation of CD44 and p75NTR was evident for organotypic cultures of normal (OKF6-TERT2) and dysplasia (DOK and POE-9n) but was lacking for OSCC (PE/CA PJ15)-derived cells. Spatial regulation of CD24 was not evident. All monolayer cultures exhibited CD44, p75NTR, CD24 antigens and ALDH activity (ALDEFLUOR® assay), with a trend towards loss of population heterogeneity that mirrored disease severity. In monolayer, increased FOXA1 and decreased FOXA2 expression correlated with disease severity, but OCT3/4, Sox2 and NANOG did not. We conclude that dermis-based organotypic cultures give opportunity to investigate the mechanisms that underlie loss of spatial regulation of stem cell markers seen with OSCC-derived cells.
Resumo:
Separately, actinic keratosis (AK) and cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) have been associated with cutaneous human papillomavirus (HPV) infections. To further explore the association between HPV infection and SCC development, we determined markers of cutaneous HPV infection within a single population in persons with precursor lesions (AK), cancerous lesions (SCC), and without. Serum and plucked eyebrow hairs were collected from 57 tumor-free controls, 126 AK, and 64 SCC cases. Presence of HPV L1 and E6 seroreactivity and viral DNA were determined for HPV types 5, 8, 15, 16, 20, 24, and 38. Significant positive associations with increasing severity of the lesions (controls, AK, and SCC, respectively) were observed for overall HPV L1 seropositivity (13%, 26%, and 37%) and for HPV8 (4%, 17%, and 30%). In parallel, the proportion of L1 seropositive individuals against multiple HPV types increased from 14% to 39% and 45%. The overall E6 seroreactivity, however, tended to decline with AK and SCC, especially for HPV8 (21%, 11%, and 2%). HPV DNA positivity was most prevalent in the AK cases (54%) compared with the SCC cases (44%) and the tumor-free controls (40%). Among all participants, there was a positive trend between overall HPV DNA positivity and L1 seropositivity, but not E6 seropositivity. Taken together, our data suggest that cutaneous HPV infections accompanied by detectable HPV DNA in eyebrow hairs and HPV L1 seropositivity, but not E6 seropositivity, are associated with an increased risk of AK and SCC.
Resumo:
This case-study explores alternative and experimental methods of research data acquisition, through an emerging research methodology, ‘Guerrilla Research Tactics’ [GRT]. The premise is that the researcher develops covert tactics for attracting and engaging with research participants. These methods range between simple analogue interventions to physical bespoke artefacts which contain an embedded digital link to a live, interactive data collecting resource, such as an online poll, survey or similar. These artefacts are purposefully placed in environments where the researcher anticipates an encounter and response from the potential research participant. The choice of design and placement of artefacts is specific and intentional. DESCRIPTION: Additional information may include: the outcomes; key factors or principles that contribute to its effectiveness; anticipated impact/evidence of impact. This case-study assesses the application of ‘Guerrilla Research Tactics’ [GRT] Methodology as an alternative, engaging and interactive method of data acquisition for higher degree research. Extending Gauntlett’s definition of ‘new creative methods… an alternative to language driven qualitative research methods' (2007), this case-study contributes to the existing body of literature addressing creative and interactive approaches to HDR data collection. The case-study was undertaken with Masters of Architecture and Urban Design research students at QUT, in 2012. Typically students within these creative disciplines view research as a taxing and boring process, distracting them from their studio design focus. An obstacle that many students face, is acquiring data from their intended participant groups. In response to these challenges the authors worked with students to develop creative, fun, and engaging research methods for both the students and their research participants. GRT are influenced by and developed from a combination of participatory action research (Kindon, 2008) and unobtrusive research methods (Kellehear, 1993), to enhance social research. GRT takes un-obtrusive research in a new direction, beyond the typical social research methods. The Masters research students developed alternative methods for acquiring data, which relied on a combination of analogue design interventions and online platforms commonly distributed through social networks. They identified critical issues that required action by the community, and the processes they developed focused on engaging with communities, to propose solutions. Key characteristics shared between both GRT and Guerrilla Activism, are notions of political issues, the unexpected, the unconventional, and being interactive, unique and thought provoking. The trend of Guerrilla Activism has been adapted to: marketing, communication, gardening, craftivism, theatre, poetry, and art. Focusing on the action element and examining elements of current trends within Guerrilla marketing, we believe that GRT can be applied to a range of research areas within various academic disciplines.