578 resultados para Delphi method


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Biological systems involving proliferation, migration and death are observed across all scales. For example, they govern cellular processes such as wound-healing, as well as the population dynamics of groups of organisms. In this paper, we provide a simplified method for correcting mean-field approximations of volume-excluding birth-death-movement processes on a regular lattice. An initially uniform distribution of agents on the lattice may give rise to spatial heterogeneity, depending on the relative rates of proliferation, migration and death. Many frameworks chosen to model these systems neglect spatial correlations, which can lead to inaccurate predictions of their behaviour. For example, the logistic model is frequently chosen, which is the mean-field approximation in this case. This mean-field description can be corrected by including a system of ordinary differential equations for pair-wise correlations between lattice site occupancies at various lattice distances. In this work we discuss difficulties with this method and provide a simplication, in the form of a partial differential equation description for the evolution of pair-wise spatial correlations over time. We test our simplified model against the more complex corrected mean-field model, finding excellent agreement. We show how our model successfully predicts system behaviour in regions where the mean-field approximation shows large discrepancies. Additionally, we investigate regions of parameter space where migration is reduced relative to proliferation, which has not been examined in detail before, and our method is successful at correcting the deviations observed in the mean-field model in these parameter regimes.

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Recent fire research into the behaviour of light gauge steel frame (LSF) wall systems has devel-oped fire design rules based on Australian and European cold-formed steel design standards, AS/NZS 4600 and Eurocode 3 Part 1.3. However, these design rules are complex since the LSF wall studs are subjected to non-uniform elevated temperature distributions when the walls are exposed to fire from one side. Therefore this paper proposes an alternative design method for routine predictions of fire resistance rating of LSF walls. In this method, suitable equations are recommended first to predict the idealised stud time-temperature pro-files of eight different LSF wall configurations subject to standard fire conditions based on full scale fire test results. A new set of equations was then proposed to find the critical hot flange (failure) temperature for a giv-en load ratio for the same LSF wall configurations with varying steel grades and thickness. These equations were developed based on detailed finite element analyses that predicted the axial compression capacities and failure times of LSF wall studs subject to non-uniform temperature distributions with varying steel grades and thicknesses. This paper proposes a simple design method in which the two sets of equations developed for time-temperature profiles and critical hot flange temperatures are used to find the failure times of LSF walls. The proposed method was verified by comparing its predictions with the results from full scale fire tests and finite element analyses. This paper presents the details of this study including the finite element models of LSF wall studs, the results from relevant fire tests and finite element analyses, and the proposed equations.

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In this study x-ray CT has been used to produce a 3D image of an irradiated PAGAT gel sample, with noise-reduction achieved using the ‘zero-scan’ method. The gel was repeatedly CT scanned and a linear fit to the varying Hounsfield unit of each pixel in the 3D volume was evaluated across the repeated scans, allowing a zero-scan extrapolation of the image to be obtained. To minimise heating of the CT scanner’s x-ray tube, this study used a large slice thickness (1 cm), to provide image slices across the irradiated region of the gel, and a relatively small number of CT scans (63), to extrapolate the zero-scan image. The resulting set of transverse images shows reduced noise compared to images from the initial CT scan of the gel, without being degraded by the additional radiation dose delivered to the gel during the repeated scanning. The full, 3D image of the gel has a low spatial resolution in the longitudinal direction, due to the selected scan parameters. Nonetheless, important features of the dose distribution are apparent in the 3D x-ray CT scan of the gel. The results of this study demonstrate that the zero-scan extrapolation method can be applied to the reconstruction of multiple x-ray CT slices, to provide useful 2D and 3D images of irradiated dosimetry gels.

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In spite of the activism of professional bodies and researchers, empirical evidence shows that project management still does not deliver the expected benefits and promises. Hence, many have questioned the validity of the hegemonic rationalist paradigm anchored in the Enlightenment and Natural Sciences tradition supporting project management research and practice for the last 60 years and the lack of relevance to practice of the current conceptual base of project management. In order to address these limitations many authors, taking a post-modernist stance in social sciences, build on ‘pre-modern’ philosophies such as the Aristotelian one, specially emphasizing the role of praxis (activity), and phronesis (practical wisdom, prudence). Indeed, ‘Praxis … is the central category of the philosophy which is not merely an interpretation of the world, but is also a guide to its transformation …’ (Vazquez, 1977:. 149). Therefore, praxis offers an important focus for practitioners and researchers in social sciences, one in which theory is integrated with practice at the point of intervention. Simply stated, praxis can serve as a common ground for those interested in basic and applied research by providing knowledge of the reality in which action, informed by theory, takes place. Consequently, I suggest a ‘praxeological’ style of reasoning (praxeology being defined as study or science of human actions and conduct, including praxis, practices and phronesis) and to go beyond the ‘Theory-Practice’ divide. Moreover, I argue that we need to move away from the current dichotomy between the two classes ‘scholars experts-researchers’ and ‘managers/workers-practitioners-participants’. Considering one single class of ‘PraXitioner’, becoming a phronimos, may contribute to create new perspectives and open up new ways of thinking and acting in project situations. Thus, I call for a Perestroika in researching and acting in project management situations. My intent is to suggest a balanced praxeological view of the apparent opposition between social and natural science approaches. I explore, in this chapter, three key questions, covering the ontological, epistemological and praxeological dimensions of project management in action. 1. Are the research approaches being currently used appropriate for generating contributions that matter to both theory and practice with regards to what a ‘project’ is or to what we do when we call a specific situation ‘a project’? 2. On the basis of which intellectual virtues is the knowledge generated and what is the impact for theory and practice? 3. Are the modes of action of the practitioners ‘prudent’ and are they differentiating or reconciling formal and abstract rationality from substantive rationality and situated reasoning with regards to the mode of action they adopt in particular project situations? The investigation of the above questions leads me to debate about ‘Project Management-as-Praxis’, and to suggest ‘A’ (not ‘THE’) ‘praxeological’ style of reasoning and mode of inquiry – acknowledging a non-paradigmatic, subjective and kaleidoscopic perspective – for ‘Knowing-as-Practicing’ in project management. In short, this is about making a ‘Projects Science’ that matters.

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Awareness to avoid losses and casualties due to rain-induced landslide is increasing in regions that routinely experience heavy rainfall. Improvements in early warning systems against rain-induced landslide such as prediction modelling using rainfall records, is urgently needed in vulnerable regions. The existing warning systems have been applied using stability chart development and real-time displacement measurement on slope surfaces. However, there are still some drawbacks such as: ignorance of rain-induced instability mechanism, mislead prediction due to the probabilistic prediction and short time for evacuation. In this research, a real-time predictive method was proposed to alleviate the drawbacks mentioned above. A case-study soil slope in Indonesia that failed in 2010 during rainfall was used to verify the proposed predictive method. Using the results from the field and laboratory characterizations, numerical analyses can be applied to develop a model of unsaturated residual soils slope with deep cracks and subject to rainwater infiltration. Real-time rainfall measurement in the slope and the prediction of future rainfall are needed. By coupling transient seepage and stability analysis, the variation of safety factor of the slope with time were provided as a basis to develop method for the real-time prediction of the rain-induced instability of slopes. This study shows the proposed prediction method has the potential to be used in an early warning system against landslide hazard, since the FOS value and the timing of the end-result of the prediction can be provided before the actual failure of the case study slope.

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This project explores yarning as a methodology for understanding health and wellness from an indigenous woman's perspective. Previous research exploring indigenous Australian women's perspectives have used traditional Western methodologies and have often been felt by the women themselves to be inappropriate and ineffective in gathering information and promoting discussion. This research arose from the indigenous women themselves, and resulted in the exploration of using yarning as a methodology. Yarning is a conversational process that involves the sharing of stories and the development of knowledge. It prioritizes indigenous ways of communicating, in that it is culturally prescribed, cooperative, and respectful. The authors identify different types of yarning that are relevant throughout their research, and explain two types of yarning—family yarning and cross-cultural yarning—which have not been previously identified in research literature. This project found that yarning as a research method is appropriate for community-based health research with indigenous Australian women. This may be an important finding for health professionals and researchers to consider when working and researching with indigenous women from other countries.

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This thesis takes a new data mining approach for analyzing road/crash data by developing models for the whole road network and generating a crash risk profile. Roads with an elevated crash risk due to road surface friction deficit are identified. The regression tree model, predicting road segment crash rate, is applied in a novel deployment coined regression tree extrapolation that produces a skid resistance/crash rate curve. Using extrapolation allows the method to be applied across the network and cope with the high proportion of missing road surface friction values. This risk profiling method can be applied in other domains.

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Establishing age-at-death for skeletal remains is a vital component of forensic anthropology. The Suchey-Brooks (S-B) method of age estimation has been widely utilised since 1986 and relies on a visual assessment of the pubic symphyseal surface in comparison to a series of casts. Inter-population studies (Kimmerle et al., 2005; Djuric et al., 2007; Sakaue, 2006) demonstrate limitations of the S-B method, however, no assessment of this technique specific to Australian populations has been published. Aim: This investigation assessed the accuracy and applicability of the S-B method to an adult Australian Caucasian population by highlighting error rates associated with this technique. Methods: Computed tomography (CT) and contact scans of the S-B casts were performed; each geometrically modelled surface was extracted and quantified for reference purposes. A Queensland skeletal database for Caucasian remains aged 15 – 70 years was initiated at the Queensland Health Forensic and Scientific Services – Forensic Pathology Mortuary (n=350). Three-dimensional reconstruction of the bone surface using innovative volume visualisation protocols in Amira® and Rapidform® platforms was performed. Samples were allocated into 11 sub-sets of 5-year age intervals and changes associated with the surface geometry were quantified in relation to age, gender and asymmetry. Results: Preliminary results indicate that computational analysis was successfully applied to model morphological surface changes. Significant differences in observed versus actual ages were noted. Furthermore, initial morphological assessment demonstrates significant bilateral asymmetry of the pubic symphysis, which is unaccounted for in the S-B method. These results propose refinements to the S-B method, when applied to Australian casework. Conclusion: This investigation promises to transform anthropological analysis to be more quantitative and less invasive using CT imaging. The overarching goal contributes to improving skeletal identification and medico-legal death investigation in the coronial process by narrowing the range of age-at-death estimation in a biological profile.

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Road surface skid resistance has been shown to have a strong relationship to road crash risk, however, applying the current method of using investigatory levels to identify crash prone roads is problematic as they may fail in identifying risky roads outside of the norm. The proposed method analyses a complex and formerly impenetrable volume of data from roads and crashes using data mining. This method rapidly identifies roads with elevated crash-rate, potentially due to skid resistance deficit, for investigation. A hypothetical skid resistance/crash risk curve is developed for each road segment, driven by the model deployed in a novel regression tree extrapolation method. The method potentially solves the problem of missing skid resistance values which occurs during network-wide crash analysis, and allows risk assessment of the major proportion of roads without skid resistance values.

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Scoparone (6,7-dimethoxycoumarin) is known to have a wide range of pharmacological properties. In this study, a rapid and validated ultra-performance liquid chromatography/electrospray ionization quadruple time-of-flight mass spectrometry (UPLC/ESI-QTof-MS) method was developed to investigate the metabolism of scoparone in rat for the first time. The new method reduced the sample handling and analytical time by three- to six-fold, and the detection limit by five- to 1000-fold, compared to published methods. Far more metabolites were detected and identified compared to published data, which were preliminarily identified as scopoletin, isoscopoletin, isofraxidin, and fraxidin, respectively, when subjected to tandem mass spectrometry analyses. It is found that the metabolic trajectory of scoparone in rat focused on phase I metabolism which is obviously different from published results, and revealed a wide range of pharmacological properties of scoparone partly attributed to the bioactivities of its metabolites.

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High-performance liquid chromatography coupled with solid phase extraction method was developed for determination of isofraxidin in rat plasma after oral administration of Acanthopanax senticosus extract (ASE), and pharmacokinetic parameters of isofraxidin either in ASE or pure compound were measured. The HPLC analysis was performed on a Dikma Diamonsil RP(18) column (4.6 mm x 150 mm, 5 microm) with the isocratic elution of solvent A (acetonitrile) and solvent B (0.1% aqueous phosphoric acid, v/v) (A : B = 22 : 78) and the detection wavelength was set at 343 nm. The calibration curve was linear over the range of 0.156-15.625 microg/ml. The limit of detection was 60 ng/ml. The intra-day precision was 5.8%, and the inter-day precision was 6.0%. The recovery was 87.30+/-1.73%. When the dosage of ASE is equal to pure compound caculated by the amount of isofraxidin, it has been found to have two maximum concentrations in plasma while the pure compound only showed one peak in the plasma concentration-time curve. The determined content of isofraxidin in plasma after oral administration of ASE is the total contents of free isofraxidin and its precursors in ASE in vitro. The pharmacokinetic characteristics of ASE showed the priority of the extract and the properities of traditional Chinese medicine.

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Ultra-performance LC coupled to quadrupole TOF/MS (UPLC-QTOF/MS) in positive and negative ESI was developed and validated to analyze metabolite profiles for urine from healthy men during the day and at night. Data analysis using principal components analysis (PCA) revealed differences between metabolic phenotypes of urine in healthy men during the day and at night. Positive ions with mass-to-charge ratio (m/z) 310.24 (5.35 min), 286.24 (4.74 min) and 310.24 (5.63 min) were elevated in the urine from healthy men at night compared to that during the day. Negative ions elevated in day urine samples of healthy men included m/z 167.02 (0.66 min), 263.12 (2.55 min) and 191.03 (0.73 min), whilst ions m/z 212.01 (4.77 min) were at a lower concentration in urine of healthy men during the day compared to that at night. The ions m/z 212.01 (4.77 min), 191.03 (0.73 min) and 310.24 (5.35 min) preliminarily correspond to indoxyl sulfate, citric acid and N-acetylneuraminic acid, providing further support for an involvement of phenotypic difference in urine of healthy men in day and night samples, which may be associated with notably different activities of gut microbiota, velocity of tricarboxylic acid cycle and activity of sialic acid biosynthesis in healthy men as regulated by circadian rhythm of the mammalian bioclock.

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Background Hyperhomocysteinemia as a consequence of the MTHFR 677 C > T variant is associated with cardiovascular disease and stroke. Another factor that can potentially contribute to these disorders is a depleted nitric oxide level, which can be due to the presence of eNOS +894 G > T and eNOS −786 T > C variants that make an individual more susceptible to endothelial dysfunction. A number of genotyping methods have been developed to investigate these variants. However, simultaneous detection methods using polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) analysis are still lacking. In this study, a novel multiplex PCR-RFLP method for the simultaneous detection of MTHFR 677 C > T and eNOS +894 G > T and eNOS −786 T > C variants was developed. A total of 114 healthy Malay subjects were recruited. The MTHFR 677 C > T and eNOS +894 G > T and eNOS −786 T > C variants were genotyped using the novel multiplex PCR-RFLP and confirmed by DNA sequencing as well as snpBLAST. Allele frequencies of MTHFR 677 C > T and eNOS +894 G > T and eNOS −786 T > C were calculated using the Hardy Weinberg equation. Methods The 114 healthy volunteers were recruited for this study, and their DNA was extracted. Primer pair was designed using Primer 3 Software version 0.4.0 and validated against the BLAST database. The primer specificity, functionality and annealing temperature were tested using uniplex PCR methods that were later combined into a single multiplex PCR. Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism (RFLP) was performed in three separate tubes followed by agarose gel electrophoresis. PCR product residual was purified and sent for DNA sequencing. Results The allele frequencies for MTHFR 677 C > T were 0.89 (C allele) and 0.11 (T allele); for eNOS +894 G > T, the allele frequencies were 0.58 (G allele) and 0.43 (T allele); and for eNOS −786 T > C, the allele frequencies were 0.87 (T allele) and 0.13 (C allele). Conclusions Our PCR-RFLP method is a simple, cost-effective and time-saving method. It can be used to successfully genotype subjects for the MTHFR 677 C > T and eNOS +894 G > T and eNOS −786 T > C variants simultaneously with 100% concordance from DNA sequencing data. This method can be routinely used for rapid investigation of the MTHFR 677 C > T and eNOS +894 G > T and eNOS −786 T > C variants.

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This paper presents the results from a study of information behaviours (IB), with specific focus on information- organisation-related behaviours conducted as part of a larger daily diary study with 40 participants. The findings indicate that organisation of information in everyday life is problematic due to various factors, specifically temporal and spatial ones, i.e., the passage of time, along with the difference in the physical environment between when the information was organised and when the information is retrieved. These have implications for information organisation schemas, and point toward the need for a context-sensitive model of information organisation that reflects the relation between information objects, information representation, and information users.

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Tags or personal metadata for annotating web resources have been widely adopted in Web 2.0 sites. However, as tags are freely chosen by users, the vocabularies are diverse, ambiguous and sometimes only meaningful to individuals. Tag recommenders may assist users during tagging process. Its objective is to suggest relevant tags to use as well as to help consolidating vocabulary in the systems. In this paper we discuss our approach for providing personalized tag recommendation by making use of existing domain ontology generated from folksonomy. Specifically we evaluated the approach in sparse situation. The evaluation shows that the proposed ontology-based method has improved the accuracy of tag recommendation in this situation.