Combining opinions for use in Bayesian networks: A measurement error approach

Bayesian networks (BNs) are graphical probabilistic models used for reasoning under uncertainty. These models are becoming increasing popular in a range of fields including ecology, computational biology, medical diagnosis, and forensics. In most of these cases, the BNs are quantified using information from experts, or from user opinions. An interest therefore lies in the way in which multiple opinions can be represented and used in a BN. This paper proposes the use of a measurement error model to combine opinions for use in the quantification of a BN. The multiple opinions are treated as a realisation of measurement error and the model uses the posterior probabilities ascribed to each node in the BN which are computed from the prior information given by each expert. The proposed model addresses the issues associated with current methods of combining opinions such as the absence of a coherent probability model, the lack of the conditional independence structure of the BN being maintained, and the provision of only a point estimate for the consensus. The proposed model is applied an existing Bayesian Network and performed well when compared to existing methods of combining opinions.

Destination Brand Performance Measurement Over Time

With increasing investments being made in brand development by destination marketing organisations (DMO) since the 1990s, including rebranding and repositioning, more research is necessary to enhance understanding of how to effectively monitor destination brand performance over time. This chapter summarises key findings from a study of brand performance of a competitive set of destinations, in their most important market, between 2003 and 2012. Brand performance was measured from the perspective of consumer perceptions, based on the concept of consumer-based brand equity (CBBE). The results indicated almost no change in perceptions of the five destinations over the 10-year period. Due to the commonality of challenges faced by DMOs worldwide, it is suggested the CBBE hierarchy provides destination marketers with a practical tool for evaluating brand performance over time; in terms of measures of effectiveness of past marketing communications, as well as indicators of future performance.

Insurance and transport law : controlling insurance contract terms : Section 54 of the Insurance Contracts Act – compliance, recovery and accountability

Commonwealth legislation covering insurance contracts contains numerous provisions designed to control the operation and effect of terms in life and general insurance contracts. For example, the Life Insurance Act 1995 (Cth) contains provisions regulating the consequences attendant upon incorrect statements in proposals [1] and non-payment of premiums, [2] provides that an insurer may only exclude liability in the case of suicide if it has made express provision for such contingency in its policy, [3] and severely restricts the efficacy of conditions as to war risks. [4] The Insurance Contracts Act 1984 (Cth) is even more intrusive and has a major impact upon contractual provisions in the general insurance field. It is beyond the scope of this note to explore all of these provisions in any detail but examples of controls and constraints imposed upon the operation and effect of contractual provisions include the following. A party is precluded from relying upon a provision in a contract of insurance if such reliance would amount to a failure to act with the utmost good faith. [5] Similarly, a policy provision which requires differences or disputes arising out of the insurance to be submitted to arbitration is void, [6] unless the insurance is a genuine cover for excess of loss over and above another specified insurance. [7] Similarly clause such as conciliation clauses, [8] average clauses, [9] and unusual terms [10] are given qualified operation. [11] However the provision in the Insurance Contracts Act that has the greatest impact upon, and application to, a wide range of insurance clauses and claims is s 54. This section has already generated a significant volume of case law and is the focus of this note. In particular this note examines two recent cases. The first, Johnson v Triple C Furniture and Electrical Pty Ltd [2012] 2 Qd R 337, (hereafter the Triple C case), is a decision of the Queensland Court of Appeal; and the second, Matthew Maxwell v Highway Hauliers Pty Ltd [2013] WASCA 115, (hereafter the Highway Hauliers case), is a decision of the Court of Appeal in Western Australia. This latter decision is on appeal to the High Court of Australia. The note considers too the decision of the New South Wales Court of Appeal in Prepaid Services Pty Ltd v Atradius Credit Insurance NV [2013] NSWCA 252 (hereafter the Prepaid Services case).These cases serve to highlight the complex nature of s 54 and its application, as well as the difficulty in achieving a balance between an insurer and an insured's reasonable expectations.

Confidence measurement in the light of signal detection theory

We compare three alternative methods for eliciting retrospective confidence in the context of a simple perceptual task: the Simple Confidence Rating (a direct report on a numerical scale), the Quadratic Scoring Rule (a post-wagering procedure), and the Matching Probability (MP; a generalization of the no-loss gambling method). We systematically compare the results obtained with these three rules to the theoretical confidence levels that can be inferred from performance in the perceptual task using Signal Detection Theory (SDT). We find that the MP provides better results in that respect. We conclude that MP is particularly well suited for studies of confidence that use SDT as a theoretical framework.

Understanding empathy : its origins and measurement

The paper addresses the topic that was important at the World Economic Forum in Davos (Jan. 2014)namely 'Empathetic leadership in organisations'. Research is presented supporting the work of Cambridge researcher, Simon Baron-Cohen and his theory of Systemizers and Empathizers.An argument is made for the importance of world decision makers having an empathetic approach to international and national decision making. The article contends that their work will directly impact on the health and future of life on our planet.

Competitive advantage through safety compliance : smaller firm responses to changes in the Australian occupational health and safety regulatory context

Smaller firms are often viewed as resistant to regulation due to cost burdens. However, evidence indicates that for some compliance is beneficial under certain conditions. Drawing on data on attitudes and responses of smaller firm owner-managers to changes in Australia’s harmonising work health and safety context we report on smaller firms’ responses to these changes. Despite uncertainty due to incomplete harmonisation, many owner-managers viewed safety compliance as important and necessary to do business. Those with negative views still linked positive safety performance to business outcomes. We categorise smaller firms’ responses and in this sample most are Positive Responders. We suggest ways forward for policy-makers to support smaller firms in complying with occupational health and safety regulation.

Common values in assessing health outcomes from disease and injury: Disability weights measurement study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Measurement of the global burden of disease with disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) requires disability weights that quantify health losses for all non-fatal consequences of disease and injury. There has been extensive debate about a range of conceptual and methodological issues concerning the definition and measurement of these weights. Our primary objective was a comprehensive re-estimation of disability weights for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 through a large-scale empirical investigation in which judgments about health losses associated with many causes of disease and injury were elicited from the general public in diverse communities through a new, standardised approach. METHODS We surveyed respondents in two ways: household surveys of adults aged 18 years or older (face-to-face interviews in Bangladesh, Indonesia, Peru, and Tanzania; telephone interviews in the USA) between Oct 28, 2009, and June 23, 2010; and an open-access web-based survey between July 26, 2010, and May 16, 2011. The surveys used paired comparison questions, in which respondents considered two hypothetical individuals with different, randomly selected health states and indicated which person they regarded as healthier. The web survey added questions about population health equivalence, which compared the overall health benefits of different life-saving or disease-prevention programmes. We analysed paired comparison responses with probit regression analysis on all 220 unique states in the study. We used results from the population health equivalence responses to anchor the results from the paired comparisons on the disability weight scale from 0 (implying no loss of health) to 1 (implying a health loss equivalent to death). Additionally, we compared new disability weights with those used in WHO's most recent update of the Global Burden of Disease Study for 2004. FINDINGS 13,902 individuals participated in household surveys and 16,328 in the web survey. Analysis of paired comparison responses indicated a high degree of consistency across surveys: correlations between individual survey results and results from analysis of the pooled dataset were 0·9 or higher in all surveys except in Bangladesh (r=0·75). Most of the 220 disability weights were located on the mild end of the severity scale, with 58 (26%) having weights below 0·05. Five (11%) states had weights below 0·01, such as mild anaemia, mild hearing or vision loss, and secondary infertility. The health states with the highest disability weights were acute schizophrenia (0·76) and severe multiple sclerosis (0·71). We identified a broad pattern of agreement between the old and new weights (r=0·70), particularly in the moderate-to-severe range. However, in the mild range below 0·2, many states had significantly lower weights in our study than previously. INTERPRETATION This study represents the most extensive empirical effort as yet to measure disability weights. By contrast with the popular hypothesis that disability assessments vary widely across samples with different cultural environments, we have reported strong evidence of highly consistent results.

Evidence for a simple linear relationship between MRSA rates and hand-washing compliance [Comment]

Is there a threshold above which hand-rub solution consumption is efficient for decreasing MRSA incidence? [J Hosp Infect. 2009] Association between an index of consumption of hand-rub solution and the incidence of acquired meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in an intensive care unit.

Design, modelling and measurement of a hybrid powerplant for unmanned aerial systems

Hybrid powerplants combining internal combustion engines and electric motor prime movers have been extensively developed for land- and marine-based transport systems. The use of such powerplants in airborne applications has been historically impractical due to energy and power density constraints. Improvements in battery and electric motor technology make aircraft hybrid powerplants feasible. This paper presents a technique for determining the feasibility and mechanical effectiveness of powerplant hybridisation. In this work, a prototype aircraft hybrid powerplant was designed, constructed and tested. It is shown that an additional 35% power can be supplied from the hybrid system with an overall weight penalty of 5%, for a given unmanned aerial system. A flight dynamic model was developed using the AeroSim Blockset in MATLAB Simulink. The results have shown that climb rates can be improved by 56% and endurance increased by 13% when using the hybrid powerplant concept.

FaceXpress : an integrated software suite for facial emotion stimulus manipulation and facial measurement

The characterisation of facial expression through landmark-based analysis methods such as FACEM (Pilowsky & Katsikitis, 1994) has a variety of uses in psychiatric and psychological research. In these systems, important structural relationships are extracted from images of facial expressions by the analysis of a pre-defined set of feature points. These relationship measures may then be used, for instance, to assess the degree of variability and similarity between different facial expressions of emotion. FaceXpress is a multimedia software suite that provides a generalised workbench for landmark-based facial emotion analysis and stimulus manipulation. It is a flexible tool that is designed to be specialised at runtime by the user. While FaceXpress has been used to implement the FACEM process, it can also be configured to support any other similar, arbitrary system for quantifying human facial emotion. FaceXpress also implements an integrated set of image processing tools and specialised tools for facial expression stimulus production including facial morphing routines and the generation of expression-representative line drawings from photographs.

Social Compliance Accounting : Managing Legitimacy in Global Supply Chains

This book covers key discussions involving major US and European multinational companies (MNCs) that source products from suppliers in developing countries. Due to the transfer of production from developed to developing nations, there is an urgent need to establish social compliance as a new form of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and a means by which MNCs can meet expected social standards. The cases described are internationally relevant and can be seen to reflect or represent the behavior of many MNCs and their suppliers in developing nations. The discussion offers essential insights into how different levels of social compliance risk and pressure (including broader stakeholder concerns) move managers to adopt or embrace particular social compliance accounting, reporting and auditing strategies. The book will help readers to understand the major concerns, challenges and dilemmas faced by management in the supply chains of MNCs, and proposes measures that can be taken to resolve those dilemmas. Most importantly, it develops a systematic method of assessing the social compliance performance of suppliers to MNCs. This includes highly detailed accounts of the social compliance performance of suppliers within the clothing industry (in a developing nation) that supply goods to the extensive US and European markets. The book offers a valuable guide, not only for corporate managers but also for practitioners, researchers, academics, and undergraduate and postgraduate business students.

The desirability of depoliticization: Compliance in the international climate regime

The Kyoto Protocol is remarkable among global multilateral environmental agreements for its efforts to depoliticize compliance. However, attempts to create autonomous, arm’s length and rule-based compliance processes with extensive reliance on putatively neutral experts were only partially realized in practice in the first commitment period from 2008 to 2012. In particular, the procedurally constrained facilitative powers vested in the Facilitative Branch were circumvented, and expert review teams (ERTs) assumed pivotal roles in compliance facilitation. The ad hoc diplomatic and facilitative practices engaged in by these small teams of technical experts raise questions about the reliability and consistency of the compliance process. For the future operation of the Kyoto compliance system, it is suggested that ERTs should be confined to more technical and procedural roles, in line with their expertise. There would then be greater scope for the Facilitative Branch to assume a more comprehensive facilitative role, safeguarded by due process guarantees, in accordance with its mandate. However, if – as appears likely – the future compliance trajectories under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change will include a significant role for ERTs without oversight by the Compliance Committee, it is important to develop appropriate procedural safeguards that reflect and shape the various technical and political roles these teams currently play.

Measurement of actual efficacy of compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs)

The use of compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) in domestic residences has increased rapidly due to their higher energy efficiency and longer life expectancy when compared with traditional incandescent light bulbs. Through measurement of illuminance, actual power and apparent power, the actual efficacy and associated power factor of CFLs are studied in this paper. It is found that for an individual CFL, although its power consumption and lighting output (i.e. luminous flux) may be higher or lower than the stated values provided by the lighting manufacturers, the actual efficacy would most likely be equal to or better than the efficacy calculated from the given rated power and lumen from the manufacturers. The typical power factor for CFLs was 0.63.