Estimating present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the Australian coastline

The occurrence of extreme water level events along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to devastating impacts on coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is very important that the probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform flood and coastal management and for future planning. The aim of this study was to provide estimates of present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, arising from combinations of mean sea level, astronomical tide and storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical storms, but exclusive of surface gravity waves. The study has been undertaken in two main stages. In the first stage, a high-resolution (~10 km along the coast) hydrodynamic depth averaged model has been configured for the whole coastline of Australia using the Danish Hydraulics Institute’s Mike21 modelling suite of tools. The model has been forced with astronomical tidal levels, derived from the TPX07.2 global tidal model, and meteorological fields, from the US National Center for Environmental Prediction’s global reanalysis, to generate a 61-year (1949 to 2009) hindcast of water levels. This model output has been validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites around Australia with long records. At each of the model grid points located around the coast, time series of annual maxima and the several highest water levels for each year were derived from the multi-decadal water level hindcast and have been fitted to extreme value distributions to estimate exceedance probabilities. Stage 1 provided a reliable estimate of the present day total water level exceedance probabilities around southern Australia, which is mainly impacted by extra-tropical storms. However, as the meteorological fields used to force the hydrodynamic model only weakly include the effects of tropical cyclones the resultant water levels exceedance probabilities were underestimated around western, northern and north-eastern Australia at higher return periods. Even if the resolution of the meteorological forcing was adequate to represent tropical cyclone-induced surges, multi-decadal periods yielded insufficient instances of tropical cyclones to enable the use of traditional extreme value extrapolation techniques. Therefore, in the second stage of the study, a statistical model of tropical cyclone tracks and central pressures was developed using histroic observations. This model was then used to generate synthetic events that represented 10,000 years of cyclone activity for the Australia region, with characteristics based on the observed tropical cyclones over the last ~40 years. Wind and pressure fields, derived from these synthetic events using analytical profile models, were used to drive the hydrodynamic model to predict the associated storm surge response. A random time period was chosen, during the tropical cyclone season, and astronomical tidal forcing for this period was included to account for non-linear interactions between the tidal and surge components. For each model grid point around the coast, annual maximum total levels for these synthetic events were calculated and these were used to estimate exceedance probabilities. The exceedance probabilities from stages 1 and 2 were then combined to provide a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia.

Social engineering in social networking sites : how good becomes evil

Social Engineering (ES) is now considered the great security threat to people and organizations. Ever since the existence of human beings, fraudulent and deceptive people have used social engineering tricks and tactics to trick victims into obeying them. There are a number of social engineering techniques that are used in information technology to compromise security defences and attack people or organizations such as phishing, identity theft, spamming, impersonation, and spaying. Recently, researchers have suggested that social networking sites (SNSs) are the most common source and best breeding grounds for exploiting the vulnerabilities of people and launching a variety of social engineering based attacks. However, the literature shows a lack of information about what types of social engineering threats exist on SNSs. This study is part of a project that attempts to predict a persons’ vulnerability to SE based on demographic factors. In this paper, we demonstrate the different types of social engineering based attacks that exist on SNSs, the purposes of these attacks, reasons why people fell (or did not fall) for these attacks, based on users’ opinions. A qualitative questionnaire-based survey was conducted to collect and analyse people’s experiences with social engineering tricks, deceptions, or attacks on SNSs.

Social engineering in social networking sites : the art of impersonation

Social networking sites (SNSs), with their large number of users and large information base, seem to be the perfect breeding ground for exploiting the vulnerabilities of people, who are considered the weakest link in security. Deceiving, persuading, or influencing people to provide information or to perform an action that will benefit the attacker is known as “social engineering.” Fraudulent and deceptive people use social engineering traps and tactics through SNSs to trick users into obeying them, accepting threats, and falling victim to various crimes such as phishing, sexual abuse, financial abuse, identity theft, and physical crime. Although organizations, researchers, and practitioners recognize the serious risks of social engineering, there is a severe lack of understanding and control of such threats. This may be partly due to the complexity of human behaviors in approaching, accepting, and failing to recognize social engineering tricks. This research aims to investigate the impact of source characteristics on users’ susceptibility to social engineering victimization in SNSs, particularly Facebook. Using grounded theory method, we develop a model that explains what and how source characteristics influence Facebook users to judge the attacker as credible.

Coming into an inheritance : family support and Chinese heritage language learning

The critical role that family plays in Chinese Heritage Language learning has gained increasing attention from psychological, political and sociological scholarship. Guided by Bourdieu’s notion of ‘habitus’, our mixed methods sociological study firstly addresses the need for quantitative evidence on the relationship between family support and Chinese Heritage Language proficiency through a survey of 230 young Chinese Australians; and then explores the dynamics of family support of Chinese Heritage Language learning through multiple interviews with five participants. The interview data demonstrate ongoing intergenerational reproduction of Chinese Heritage Language through various forms of family inculcation. Learners’ transition from resistance to commitment is a focus of the analysis. Extant research struggles to theorise the reasons behind this transition. We offer a Bourdieusian explanation that construes the transition as ‘habitus realisation’. Our study has implications for Chinese Heritage Language researchers, Chinese immigrant parents and Chinese teachers.

Art Spaces, Art Places : Examining Neighborhood Preferences of New York Arts Organizations

This report builds on and extends a diverse literature that examines the location patterns of the arts and creative industries through analysis of a database of arts nonprofit organizations from the New York State Cultural Data Project. We confirm the link between arts organizations and the urban core and creative economy, but challenge the assumption that arts tend to locate in ethnic and disadvantaged neighborhoods. By identifying key neighborhood attributes associated with distinct types of arts organizations, we can better identify potential sites conducive to nurturing additional artistic activity and inform strategies to engage organizations in neighborhoods that are underserved in the arts.

Effect of broadcast baiting on abundance patterns of red imported fire ants (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) and key local ant genera at long-term monitoring sites in Brisbane, Australia

In 2001, the red imported fire ant (Solenopsis invicta Buren) was identified in Brisbane, Australia. An eradication program involving broadcast bait treatment with two insect growth regulators and a metabolic inhibitor began in September of that year and is currently ongoing. To gauge the impacts of these treatments on local ant populations, we examined long-term monitoring data and quantified abundance patterns of S. invicta and common local ant genera using a linear mixed-effects model. For S. invicta, presence in pitfalls reduced over time to zero on every site. Significantly higher numbers of S. invicta workers were collected on high-density polygyne sites, which took longer to disinfest compared with monogyne and low-density polygyne sites. For local ants, nine genus groups of the 10 most common genera analyzed either increased in abundance or showed no significant trend. Five of these genus groups were significantly less abundant at the start of monitoring on high-density polygyne sites compared with monogyne and low-density polygyne sites. The genus Pheidole significantly reduced in abundance over time, suggesting that it was affected by treatment efforts. These results demonstrate that the treatment regime used at the time successfully removed S. invicta from these sites in Brisbane, and that most local ant genera were not seriously impacted by the treatment. These results have important implications for current and future prophylactic treatment efforts, and suggest that native ants remain in treated areas to provide some biological resistance to S. invicta.

Three-dimensional analysis of budding sites and released virus suggests a revised model for HIV-1 morphogenesis

Current models of HIV-1 morphogenesis hold that newly synthesized viral Gag polyproteins traffic to and assemble at the cell membrane into spherical protein shells. The resulting late-budding structure is thought to be released by the cellular ESCRT machinery severing the membrane tether connecting it to the producer cell. Using electron tomography and scanning transmission electron microscopy, we find that virions have a morphology and composition distinct from late-budding sites. Gag is arranged as a continuous but incomplete sphere in the released virion. In contrast, late-budding sites lacking functional ESCRT exhibited a nearly closed Gag sphere. The results lead us to propose that budding is initiated by Gag assembly, but is completed in an ESCRT-dependent manner before the Gag sphere is complete. This suggests that ESCRT functions early in HIV-1 release-akin to its role in vesicle formation-and is not restricted to severing the thin membrane tether.

The importance of good data, analysis and interpretation for showing the economics of reducing healthcare-associated infection

To the Editor—In a recent review article in Infection Control and Hospital Epidemiology, Umscheid et al1 summarized published data on incidence rates of catheter-associated bloodstream infection (CABSI), catheter-associated urinary tract infection (CAUTI), surgical site infection (SSI), and ventilator- associated pneumonia (VAP); estimated how many cases are preventable; and calculated the savings in hospital costs and lives that would result from preventing all preventable cases. Providing these estimates to policy makers, political leaders, and health officials helps to galvanize their support for infection prevention programs. Our concern is that important limitations of the published studies on which Umscheid and colleagues built their findings are incompletely addressed in this review. More attention needs to be drawn to the techniques applied to generate these estimates...

Emerging Opportunities for "Design Thinking" to Deliver Sustainable Solutions in the Built Environment

In the built environment sector, a range of innovations are delivering environmental improvements with mixed success worldwide. The authors of this paper argue that a more “disruptive” form of innovation is needed to bring about significant and systemic change within the sector. Critical to this transition is the development of new behaviours and values. In particular, built environment professionals need to become active change agents in cultivating these new behaviours and values through the development of collaborative visions, scenarios, practices, and ideas. This paper identifies and discusses the critical role that design (in its broadest sense) can play in this process. Drawing on a comprehensive review of literature, the authors highlight a number of transformational opportunities for cross professional learning and sharing between design and built environment disciplines in achieving environmental innovation (eco-innovation). The paper also considers several design-based concepts that have a potential application in the built environment sector including: design thinking, social innovation (human-centered), and disruptive innovation (transformational) approaches. The research findings will assist in building the capabilities of designers and innovators to create sustainable solutions to global problems, and in supporting the social diffusion of systems-changing ideas in the built environment sector.

Experimental and numerical study of polymeric foam efficacy in portable water filled barriers

Portable, water filled road safety barriers are used to provide protection and reduce the potential hazard due to errant vehicles in areas where the road conditions change frequently (e.g. near road work sites). As part of an effort to reduce excessive working widths typical of these systems, a study was conducted to assess the effectiveness of introducing polymeric foam filled panels into the design. Surrogate impact tests of a design typical of such as barrier system were conducted utilising a pneumatically powered horizontal impact testing machine up to impact energies of 7.40 kJ. Results of these tests are utilised to examine the barrier behaviour, in addition to being used to validate a couple FE/SPH model of the barrier system. Once validated, the FE/SPH model it utilised as the basis for a parametric study into the efficacy and effects of the inclusion of polymeric foam filled panels on the performance of portable water filled road safety barriers. It was found that extruded polystyrene foam functioned well, with a greater thickness of the foam panel significantly reducing the impacting body velocity as the barrier began to translate.

The value of storytelling

Considering the embodied carbon in existing buildings where expenditure has already occurred, the retrofitting of existing buildings presents a significant opportunity to reduce the carbon footprint of our built environment. In Australia there is also a renewed awareness of the importance of our cultural heritage and the adaptive reuse of our historic buildings is increasingly discussed as a preservation strategy. The ‘design’ phase in building projects is credited with providing “an unparalleled window of opportunity to address environmental objectives” and fostering sustainable development, with up to 80% of overall environmental impacts determined by the decisions made at this stage. Both design and built environment professionals appreciate that a holistic and ‘whole systems’ approach is key in enabling transformation. The design process often comprises of many divergent and convergent activities, many of which seek to understand the people and context. The design process for heritage building adaptive reuse projects revolves around producing or referring to a conservation management plan that articulates what is and isn't heritage fabric. In an Australian context, and according to literature and the emerging results of a series of semi-structured interviews undertaken with designers of such projects, the key themes integral to success are: business case, vision, communication & collaboration, values, and storytelling.

Naik Naik

"Naik Naik, conceived and directed by Cheryl Stock, is a multi-site promenade performance in which the audience joins the artists in physically exploring the notion of ‘ascent’ through their upward journey from Fort A Famosa at the base of the hill to Site 1 of St Paul’s Hill at the summit. Beginning at dusk with vignette performances along the ascending path, the journey finishes on entering the church ruins at nightfall. An evocation of place through performative contemplations, this processional experience lingers on the traces of history that remain hidden or partially and silently exposed, interwoven with personal and cultural stories related to the sites, in a celebration of the present. Naik Naik brings together eight established and emerging professional artists whose disciplines range across dance, music, visual arts and media production. Excitingly, this will be the first performance at MAPFest arising from a pre-festival collaborative residency with development time in Malaysia for all artists to work on a new production from its inception. The collaboration has been based on ideas arising from site research as well as myths and local stories from longterm Melaka residents who contributed their knowledge and memories of the chosen sites. Naik Naik has been created by its artists in an acknowledgement of Melaka’s unique multicultural heritage and contemporary identity.