Managing risk in process-aware information systems

This research contributes a fully-operational approach for managing business process risk in near real-time. The approach consists of a language for defining risks on top of process models, a technique to detect such risks as they eventuate during the execution of business processes, a recommender system for making risk-informed decisions, and a technique to automatically mitigate the detected risks when they are no longer tolerable. Through the incorporation of risk management elements in all stages of the lifecycle of business processes, this work contributes to the effective integration of the fields of Business Process Management and Risk Management.

Theorizing the use of multiple conceptual models in combination

Conceptual modelling continues to be an important means for graphically capturing the requirements of an information system. Observations of modelling practice suggest that modellers often use multiple conceptual models in combination, because they articulate different aspects of real-world domains. Yet, the available empirical as well as theoretical research in this area has largely studied the use of single models, or single modelling grammars. We develop a Theory of Combined Ontological Coverage by extending an existing theory of ontological expressiveness of conceptual modelling grammars. Our new theory posits that multiple conceptual models are used to increase the maximum coverage of the real-world domain being modelled, whilst trying to minimize the ontological overlap between the models. We illustrate how the theory can be applied to analyse sets of conceptual models. We develop three propositions of the theory about evaluations of model combinations in terms of users’ selection, understandability and usefulness of conceptual models.

MIMO and SISO identification of radiation force terms for models of marine structures in waves

This paper presents a discussion on the use of MIMO and SISO techniques for identification of the radiation force terms in models for surface vessels. We compare and discuss two techniques recently proposed in literature for this application: time domain identification and frequency domain identification. We compare the methods in terms of estimates model order, accuracy of the fit, use of the available information, and ease of use and implementation.

Acoustic identification of 12 species of echolocating bat by discriminant function analysis and artificial neural networks

We recorded echolocation calls from 14 sympatric species of bat in Britain. Once digitised, one temporal and four spectral features were measured from each call. The frequency-time course of each call was approximated by fitting eight mathematical functions, and the goodness of fit, represented by the mean-squared error, was calculated. Measurements were taken using an automated process that extracted a single call from background noise and measured all variables without intervention. Two species of Rhinolophus were easily identified from call duration and spectral measurements. For the remaining 12 species, discriminant function analysis and multilayer back-propagation perceptrons were used to classify calls to species level. Analyses were carried out with and without the inclusion of curve-fitting data to evaluate its usefulness in distinguishing among species. Discriminant function analysis achieved an overall correct classification rate of 79% with curve-fitting data included, while an artificial neural network achieved 87%. The removal of curve-fitting data improved the performance of the discriminant function analysis by 2 %, while the performance of a perceptron decreased by 2 %. However, an increase in correct identification rates when curve-fitting information was included was not found for all species. The use of a hierarchical classification system, whereby calls were first classified to genus level and then to species level, had little effect on correct classification rates by discriminant function analysis but did improve rates achieved by perceptrons. This is the first published study to use artificial neural networks to classify the echolocation calls of bats to species level. Our findings are discussed in terms of recent advances in recording and analysis technologies, and are related to factors causing convergence and divergence of echolocation call design in bats.

Design, construction and evaluation of systems to predict risk in obstetrics

We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy. We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy.

Capturing natural-colour 3D models of insects for species discovery and diagnostics

Collections of biological specimens are fundamental to scientific understanding and characterization of natural diversity - past, present and future. This paper presents a system for liberating useful information from physical collections by bringing specimens into the digital domain so they can be more readily shared, analyzed, annotated and compared. It focuses on insects and is strongly motivated by the desire to accelerate and augment current practices in insect taxonomy which predominantly use text, 2D diagrams and images to describe and characterize species. While these traditional kinds of descriptions are informative and useful, they cannot cover insect specimens "from all angles" and precious specimens are still exchanged between researchers and collections for this reason. Furthermore, insects can be complex in structure and pose many challenges to computer vision systems. We present a new prototype for a practical, cost-effective system of off-the-shelf components to acquire natural-colour 3D models of insects from around 3 mm to 30 mm in length. ("Natural-colour" is used to contrast with "false-colour", i.e., colour generated from, or applied to, gray-scale data post-acquisition.) Colour images are captured from different angles and focal depths using a digital single lens reflex (DSLR) camera rig and two-axis turntable. These 2D images are processed into 3D reconstructions using software based on a visual hull algorithm. The resulting models are compact (around 10 megabytes), afford excellent optical resolution, and can be readily embedded into documents and web pages, as well as viewed on mobile devices. The system is portable, safe, relatively affordable, and complements the sort of volumetric data that can be acquired by computed tomography. This system provides a new way to augment the description and documentation of insect species holotypes, reducing the need to handle or ship specimens. It opens up new opportunities to collect data for research, education, art, entertainment, biodiversity assessment and biosecurity control. © 2014 Nguyen et al.

A Boundary-Oriented Chinese Segmentation Method Using NGram Mutual Information

This paper describes our participation in the Chinese word segmentation task of CIPS-SIGHAN 2010. We implemented an n-gram mutual information (NGMI) based segmentation algorithm with the mixed-up features from unsupervised, supervised and dictionarybased segmentation methods. This algorithm is also combined with a simple strategy for out-of-vocabulary (OOV) word recognition. The evaluation for both open and closed training shows encouraging results of our system. The results for OOV word recognition in closed training evaluation were however found unsatisfactory.

A high performance liquid chromatography and electrospray ionization mass spectrometry method for the analysis of the natural medicine, Forsythia suspensa

Samples of Forsythia suspensa from raw (Laoqiao) and ripe (Qingqiao) fruit were analyzed with the use of HPLC-DAD and the EIS-MS techniques. Seventeen peaks were detected, and of these, twelve were identified. Most were related to the glucopyranoside molecular fragment. Samples collected from three geographical areas (Shanxi, Henan and Shandong Provinces), were discriminated with the use of hierarchical clustering analysis (HCA), discriminant analysis (DA), and principal component analysis (PCA) models, but only PCA was able to provide further information about the relationships between objects and loadings; eight peaks were related to the provinces of sample origin. The supervised classification models-K-nearest neighbor (KNN), least squares support vector machines (LS-SVM), and counter propagation artificial neural network (CP-ANN) methods, indicated successful classification but KNN produced 100% classification rate. Thus, the fruit were discriminated on the basis of their places of origin.

Acoustic identification of twelve species of echolocating bat by discriminant function analysis and artificial neural networks

We recorded echolocation calls from 14 sympatric species of bat in Britain. Once digitised, one temporal and four spectral features were measured from each call. The frequency-time course of each call was approximated by fitting eight mathematical functions, and the goodness of fit, represented by the mean-squared error, was calculated. Measurements were taken using an automated process that extracted a single call from background noise and measured all variables without intervention. Two species of Rhinolophus were easily identified from call duration and spectral measurements. For the remaining 12 species, discriminant function analysis and multilayer back-propagation perceptrons were used to classify calls to species level. Analyses were carried out with and without the inclusion of curve-fitting data to evaluate its usefulness in distinguishing among species. Discriminant function analysis achieved an overall correct classification rate of 79% with curve-fitting data included, while an artificial neural network achieved 87%. The removal of curve-fitting data improved the performance of the discriminant function analysis by 2 %, while the performance of a perceptron decreased by 2 %. However, an increase in correct identification rates when curve-fitting information was included was not found for all species. The use of a hierarchical classification system, whereby calls were first classified to genus level and then to species level, had little effect on correct classification rates by discriminant function analysis but did improve rates achieved by perceptrons. This is the first published study to use artificial neural networks to classify the echolocation calls of bats to species level. Our findings are discussed in terms of recent advances in recording and analysis technologies, and are related to factors causing convergence and divergence of echolocation call design in bats.

On Merging Business Process Management and Geographic Information Systems : Modeling and Execution of Ecological Concerns in Processes

Business Process Management describes a holistic management approach for the systematic design, modeling, execution, validation, monitoring and improvement of organizational business processes. Traditionally, most attention within this community has been given to control-flow aspects, i.e., the ordering and sequencing of business activities, oftentimes in isolation with regards to the context in which these activities occur. In this paper, we propose an approach that allows executable process models to be integrated with Geographic Information Systems. This approach enables process models to take geospatial and other geographic aspects into account in an explicit manner both during the modeling phase and the execution phase. We contribute a structured modeling methodology, based on the well-known Business Process Model and Notation standard, which is formalized by means of a mapping to executable Colored Petri nets. We illustrate the feasibility of our approach by means of a sustainability-focused case example of a process with important ecological concerns.

Bayesian networks for information synthesis in complex systems

This thesis introduces a method of applying Bayesian Networks to combine information from a range of data sources for effective decision support systems. It develops a set of techniques in development, validation, visualisation, and application of Complex Systems models, with a working demonstration in an Australian airport environment. The methods presented here have provided a modelling approach that produces highly flexible, informative and applicable interpretations of a system's behaviour under uncertain conditions. These end-to-end techniques are applied to the development of model based dashboards to support operators and decision makers in the multi-stakeholder airport environment. They provide highly flexible and informative interpretations and confidence in these interpretations of a system's behaviour under uncertain conditions.