Towards strongly consistent online HMM parameter estimation using one-step Kerridge inaccuracy

In this paper, we propose a novel online hidden Markov model (HMM) parameter estimator based on the new information-theoretic concept of one-step Kerridge inaccuracy (OKI). Under several regulatory conditions, we establish a convergence result (and some limited strong consistency results) for our proposed online OKI-based parameter estimator. In simulation studies, we illustrate the global convergence behaviour of our proposed estimator and provide a counter-example illustrating the local convergence of other popular HMM parameter estimators.

Influence of pollutant build-up on variability in wash-off from urban road surfaces

Variability in the pollutant wash-off process is a concept which needs to be understood in-depth in order to better assess the outcomes of stormwater quality models, and thereby strengthen stormwater pollution mitigation strategies. Current knowledge about the wash-off process does not extend to a clear understanding of the influence of the initially available pollutant build-up on the variability of the pollutant wash-off load and composition. Consequently, pollutant wash-off process variability is poorly characterised in stormwater quality models, which can result in inaccurate stormwater quality predictions. Mathematical simulation of particulate wash-off from three urban road surfaces confirmed that the wash-off load of particle size fractions <150µm and >150µm after a storm event vary with the build-up of the respective particle size fractions available at the beginning of the storm event. Furthermore, pollutant load and composition associated with the initially available build-up of <150µm particles predominantly influence the variability in washed-off pollutant load and composition. The influence of the build-up of pollutants associated with >150µm particles on wash-off process variability is significant only for relatively shorter duration storm events.

How European public sector agencies innovate: The use of bottom-up, policy-dependent and knowledge-scanning innovation methods

Factor and cluster analysis are used to identify different methods that public sector agencies in Europeuse to innovate, based on data from a 2010 survey of 3273 agencies. The analyses identify three types ofinnovative agencies: bottom-up, knowledge-scanning, and policy-dependent. The distribution of bottom-up agencies across European countries is positively correlated with average per capita incomes while thedistribution of knowledge-scanning agencies is negatively correlated with income. In contrast, there isno consistent pattern by country in the distribution of policy-dependent agencies. Regression resultsthat control for agency characteristics find that innovation methods are significantly correlated with thebeneficial outcomes of innovation, with bottom-up and knowledge-scanning agencies out-performingpolicy-dependent agencies.

Redefining dermatologists’ role in skin cancer early detection and follow-up care

Early diagnosis of melanoma leads to the best prognosis for patients and may be more likely achieved when those who are at high risk for melanoma undergo regular and systematic monitoring. However, many people rarely or never see a dermatologist. Risk prediction models (recently reviewed by Usher-Smith et al ) could assist to triage people into preventive care appropriate for their risk profile. Most risk prediction models contain measures of phenotype including skin, eye and hair colour as well as genetic mutations. Almost all also contain the number and size of naevi, as well as the presence of naevi with atypical features which are independently associated with melanoma risk. In the absence of formal population-based screening programs for melanoma in most countries worldwide, people with high risk phenotypes may need to consider regular monitoring or self-monitoring of their naevi , especially since the vast majority of melanomas are found by people themselves or their friend and relatives. Another group of patients that will require regular monitoring are patients who have been successfully treated for their first melanoma, whose risk to develop a second melanoma is greatly increased . In a US study of 89,515 melanoma survivors those with a previous diagnosis of melanoma had a 9-fold increased risk of developing subsequent melanoma compared with the general population, equating to a rate of 3.76 per 1000 person-years, while in an Australian study, risk of subsequent melanoma was 6 per 1000 person-years. Regular follow-up is therefore essential for melanoma survivors, especially during the first few years after initial melanoma diagnosis.

Reliability and criterion-related validity with a smartphone used in timed-up-and-go test

Background The capacity to diagnosys, quantify and evaluate movement beyond the general confines of a clinical environment under effectiveness conditions may alleviate rampant strain on limited, expensive and highly specialized medical resources. An iPhone 4® mounted a three dimensional accelerometer subsystem with highly robust software applications. The present study aimed to evaluate the reliability and concurrent criterion-related validity of the accelerations with an iPhone 4® in an Extended Timed Get Up and Go test. Extended Timed Get Up and Go is a clinical test with that the patient get up from the chair and walking ten meters, turn and coming back to the chair. Methods A repeated measure, cross-sectional, analytical study. Test-retest reliability of the kinematic measurements of the iPhone 4® compared with a standard validated laboratory device. We calculated the Coefficient of Multiple Correlation between the two sensors acceleration signal of each subject, in each sub-stage, in each of the three Extended Timed Get Up and Go test trials. To investigate statistical agreement between the two sensors we used the Bland-Altman method. Results With respect to the analysis of the correlation data in the present work, the Coefficient of Multiple Correlation of the five subjects in their triplicated trials were as follows: in sub-phase Sit to Stand the ranged between r = 0.991 to 0.842; in Gait Go, r = 0.967 to 0.852; in Turn, 0.979 to 0.798; in Gait Come, 0.964 to 0.887; and in Turn to Stand to Sit, 0.992 to 0.877. All the correlations between the sensors were significant (p < 0.001). The Bland-Altman plots obtained showed a solid tendency to stay at close to zero, especially on the y and x-axes, during the five phases of the Extended Timed Get Up and Go test. Conclusions The inertial sensor mounted in the iPhone 4® is sufficiently reliable and accurate to evaluate and identify the kinematic patterns in an Extended Timed Get and Go test. While analysis and interpretation of 3D kinematics data continue to be dauntingly complex, the iPhone 4® makes the task of acquiring the data relatively inexpensive and easy to use.

Gearing up academics for collaborative Building Information Modelling (BIM) education

Building information modelling (BIM) radically changes the practices in architecture, engineering and construction (AEC) and creates new job opportunities. Many governments, such as the United Kingdom, have made BIM a mandatory requirement. This substantially drives the demand for a BIM-literate workforce. Universities are facing the challenge to incorporate BIM into their curricula and produce “BIM ready” graduates to meet the needs of the industry. Like other universities, Queensland University of Technology (QUT) is at the heart of this change and aspires to develop collaborative BIM education across AEC. Previous BIM education studies identify that inadequate BIM awareness of AEC academics is one of the challenges for developing a BIM curriculum and there is a dearth in the learning and teaching support for academics on BIM education. Equipping the AEC academics for a more BIM focused curriculum is all the while more important. This paper aims to leverage knowledge drawn from a Learning & Teaching project currently undertaken at QUT. Its specific objectives are to: 1) review the existing learning and teaching initiatives on BIM education; and 2) briefly describe the learning and teaching activities on collaborative BIM education at QUT. Significance of the paper lies on revealing the importance of building up the capacity of AEC academics for collaborative BIM education. The paper contributes to sparking the interests in better equipping AEC academics to understand what curriculum changes would assist in BIM uptake within the relevant courses to provide context for changes in units; and how the use of BIM can improve the understanding by students of the large amounts of professional knowledge they need to function effectively as graduates.

Can GRI light up the future of mankind?

There is strong evidence across the media that humanity has finally come to recognize the certainty and imminence of a global environmental crisis due to man-triggered ecological alterations. This widespread recognition of what is happening around us has matured even further as studies acknowledging that everything on Earth is interconnected begin to mount across various branches of learning. The appreciation of this simple linear and two-dimensional relationship implies enormous consequences for economic and management studies, as alternative business models will eventually have to supersede the old practices that still govern major industry sectors (e.g. energy, cement, agriculture, automotive, pharmaceutical, etc.). This paper argues that traditional knowledge found in developing countries can sometimes harness the potential of sparking genuine alternatives to established business practices. With a focus on the most fundamental geochemical cycles on Earth − nitrogen, water, and carbon − and the primary resources they govern (soil, water, and air), three case studies are presented to illustrate how traditional knowledge in the context of GRI (Grassroots Innovation) projects can lead to challenge the dominant logic, when allowed to thrive in terms of adoption and scalability.

Skilling up for a low-carbon future: Vocational education and training

Given the need for both short and long-term training for sustainability discussed in the first of this three-part series (ECOS 158, pp 22–24), it is clear that the vocational education and training sector will play a major role in building capacity for our nation over the next five years.

Skilling up for a low carbon future

A lack of appropriate skills and qualifications in the professions over the next decade may see Australian businesses forego significant opportunities in the global shift to sustainable development. What is the extent of the broader capacity building challenge facing our education sector, and how quickly will we need to respond?

Structural identification of a laboratory-based steel through truss cantilevered bridge with suspended span using a layered genetic algorithm with patternsearch step (GAPS)

Structural identification (St-Id) can be considered as the process of updating a finite element (FE) model of a structural system to match the measured response of the structure. This paper presents the St-Id of a laboratory-based steel through-truss cantilevered bridge with suspended span. There are a total of 600 degrees of freedom (DOFs) in the superstructure plus additional DOFs in the substructure. The St-Id of the bridge model used the modal parameters from a preliminary modal test in the objective function of a global optimisation technique using a layered genetic algorithm with patternsearch step (GAPS). Each layer of the St-Id process involved grouping of the structural parameters into a number of updating parameters and running parallel optimisations. The number of updating parameters was increased at each layer of the process. In order to accelerate the optimisation and ensure improved diversity within the population, a patternsearch step was applied to the fittest individuals at the end of each generation of the GA. The GAPS process was able to replicate the mode shapes for the first two lateral sway modes and the first vertical bending mode to a high degree of accuracy and, to a lesser degree, the mode shape of the first lateral bending mode. The mode shape and frequency of the torsional mode did not match very well. The frequencies of the first lateral bending mode, the first longitudinal mode and the first vertical mode matched very well. The frequency of the first sway mode was lower and that of the second sway mode was higher than the true values, indicating a possible problem with the FE model. Improvements to the model and the St-Id process will be presented at the upcoming conference and compared to the results presented in this paper. These improvements will include the use of multiple FE models in a multi-layered, multi-solution, GAPS St-Id approach.

Physiological and biomechanical responses to walking underwater on a non-motorised treadmill: Effects of different exercise intensities and depths in middle-aged healthy women

Non-motorised underwater treadmills are commonly used in fitness activities. However, no studies have examined physiological and biomechanical responses of walking on non-motorised treadmills at different intensities and depths. Fifteen middle-aged healthy women underwent two underwater walking tests at two different depths, immersed either up to the xiphoid process (deep water) or the iliac crest (shallow water), at 100, 110, 120, 130 step-per-minute (spm). Oxygen consumption (VO2), heart rate (HR), blood lactate concentration, perceived exertion and step length were determined. Compared to deep water, walking in shallow water exhibited, at all intensities, significantly higher VO2 (+13.5%, on average) and HR (+8.1%, on average) responses. Water depth did not influence lactate concentration, whereas perceived exertion was higher in shallow compared to deep water, solely at 120 (+40%) and 130 (+39.4%) spm. Average step length was reduced as the intensity increased (from 100 to 130 spm), irrespective of water depth. Expressed as a percentage of maximum, average VO2 and HR were: 64–76% of peak VO2 and 71–90% of maximum HR, respectively at both water depths. Accordingly, this form of exercise can be included in the “vigorous” range of exercise intensity, at any of the step frequencies used in this study.

Submission to the Productivity Commission issues paper business set-Up, transfer and closure

The Commission has been asked to identify appropriate options for reducing entry and exit barriers including advice on the potential impacts of the personal/corporate insolvency regimes on business exits...

Submission to the Productivity Commission draft report business set-up, transfer and closure

The Commission has released a Draft Report on Business Set-Up, Transfer and Closure for public consultation and input. It is pleasing to note that three chapters of the Draft Report address aspects of personal and corporate insolvency. Nevertheless, we continue to make the submission to national policy inquiries and discussions that a comprehensive review should be undertaken of the regulation of insolvency and restructuring in Australia. The last comprehensive review of the insolvency system was by the Australian Law Reform Commission (the Harmer Report) and was handed down in 1988. Whilst there have been aspects of our insolvency laws that have been reviewed since that time, none has been able to provide the clear and comprehensive analysis that is able to come from a more considered review. Such a review ought to be conducted by the Australian Law Reform Commission or similar independent panel set up for the task. We also suggest that there is a lack of data available to assist with addressing questions raised by the Draft Report. There is a need to invest in finding out, in a rigorous and informed way, how the current law operates. Until there is a willingness to make a public investment in such research with less reliance upon the anecdotal (often from well-meaning but ultimately inadequately informed participants and others) the government cannot be sure that the insolvency regime we have provides the most effective regime to underpin Australia’s commercial and financial dealings, nor that any change is justified. We also make the submission that there are benefits in a serious investigation into a merged regulatory architecture of personal and corporate insolvency and a combined personal and corporate insolvency regulator.

One-step synthesis of high quality kesterite Cu2ZnSnS4nanocrystals: A hydrothermal approach

The present work demonstrates a systematic approach for the synthesis of pure kesterite-phase Cu2ZnSnS4 (CZTS) nanocrystals with a uniform size distribution by a one-step, thioglycolic acid (TGA)-assisted hydrothermal route. The formation mechanism and the role of TGA in the formation of CZTS compound were thoroughly studied. It has been found that TGA interacted with Cu2+ to form Cu+ at the initial reaction stage and controlled the crystal-growth of CZTS nanocrystals during the hydrothermal reaction. The consequence of the reduction of Cu2+ to Cu+ led to the formation Cu2−xS nuclei, which acted as the crystal framework for the formation of CZTS compound. CZTS was formed by the diffusion of Zn2+ and Sn4+ cations to the lattice of Cu2−xS during the hydrothermal reaction. The as-synthesized CZTS nanocrystals exhibited strong light absorption over the range of wavelength beyond 1000 nm. The band gap of the material was determined to be 1.51 eV, which is optimal for application in photoelectric energy conversion device.

The Step approach to Message Design and Testing (SatMDT): A conceptual framework to guide the development and evaluation of persuasive health messages

This paper provides an important and timely overview of a conceptual framework designed to assist with the development of message content, as well as the evaluation, of persuasive health messages. While an earlier version of this framework was presented in a prior publication by the authors in 2009, important refinements to the framework have seen it evolve in recent years, warranting the need for an updated review. This paper outlines the Step approach to Message Design and Testing (or SatMDT) in accordance with the theoretical evidence which underpins, as well as empirical evidence which demonstrates the relevance and feasibility, of each of the framework’s steps. The development and testing of the framework have thus far been based exclusively within the road safety advertising context; however, the view expressed herein is that the framework may have broader appeal and application to the health persuasion context.