Inadvertent hypothermia after procedural sedation and analgesia in a cardiac catheterisation laboratory: A prospective observational study

Objective To identify the prevalence of and risk factors for inadvertent hypothermia after procedures performed with procedural sedation and analgesia in a cardiac catheterisation laboratory. Design Single-centre, prospective observational study. Setting Tertiary care private hospital in Australia. Participants A convenience sample of 399 patients undergoing elective procedures with procedural sedation and analgesia were included. Propofol infusions were used when an anaesthetist was present. Otherwise, bolus doses of either midazolam or fentanyl or a combination of these medications was used. Interventions None Measurements and main results Hypothermia was defined as a temperature <36.0° Celsius. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify risk factors. Hypothermia was present after 23.3% (n=93; 95% confidence interval [CI] 19.2%-27.4%) of 399 procedures. Sedative regimens with the highest prevalence of hypothermia were any regimen that included propofol (n=35; 40.2%; 95% CI 29.9%-50.5%) and the use of fentanyl combined with midazolam (n=23; 20.3%; 95% CI 12.9%-27.7%). Difference in mean temperature from pre to post-procedure was -0.27°C (Standard deviation [SD] 0.45). Receiving propofol (odds ratio [OR] OR 4.6 95% CI 2.5-8.6), percutaneous coronary intervention (OR 3.2 95% CI 1.7-5.9), body mass index <25 (OR 2.5 95% CI 1.4-4.4) and being hypothermic prior to the procedure (OR 4.9; 95% CI 2.3-10.8) were independent predictors of post-procedural hypothermia. Conclusions A moderate prevalence of hypothermia was observed. The small absolute change in temperature observed may not be a clinically important amount. More research is needed to increase confidence in our estimates of hypothermia in sedated patients and its impact on clinical outcomes.

On the benefits of equicorrelation for portfolio allocation

The importance of modelling correlation has long been recognised in the field of portfolio management, with largedimensional multivariate problems increasingly becoming the focus of research. This paper provides a straightforward and commonsense approach toward investigating a number of models used to generate forecasts of the correlation matrix for large-dimensional problems.We find evidence in favour of assuming equicorrelation across various portfolio sizes, particularly during times of crisis. During periods of market calm, however, the suitability of the constant conditional correlation model cannot be discounted, especially for large portfolios. A portfolio allocation problem is used to compare forecasting methods. The global minimum variance portfolio and Model Confidence Set are used to compare methods, while portfolio weight stability and relative economic value are also considered.

Functional and psychosocial outcomes 1 year after mild stroke

Background Mild stroke survivors are generally discharged from acute care within a few days of the stroke event, often without rehabilitation follow-up. We aimed to examine the recovery trajectory for male patients and their wife-caregivers during the 12 months postdischarge. Methods A descriptive study was undertaken to examine functional outcomes, quality of life (QOL), depression, caregiver strain, and marital function in a prospective cohort of male survivors of mild stroke and their wife-caregivers during the 12 months postdischarge. Data from each point in time were summarized and repeated measures analyses undertaken. Logistic regression was used to determine which baseline demographic and biopsychosocial variables influenced or predicted marital functioning 1 year postdischarge. Results A total of 38 male patients (mean age 63.4 years) and their wife-caregivers (mean age 58.5 years) were examined. The median discharge National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score was 1.5, modified Rankin Scale score was 1.0, Barthel Index was 100.0, and Stroke Impact Scale-16v2 score was 78.5. The patients' modified Rankin Scale (function) and QOL scores improved significantly over time (F (2) = 4.583, P = .017; and F (6) = 5.632, P < .001, respectively). However, the wife-caregiver QOL scores did not change. Multivariate analysis revealed overall worsening of depression for both the patient and wife-caregivers (F (6, 32) = 3.087, P = .017) and marital function (F (6, 32) = 3.961, P = .004), although the wife-caregivers' perceptions of caregiver strain improved (F (6, 32) = 3.923, P = .007). None of the measured variables were associated with marital functioning 1 year postdischarge. Conclusions Despite improvement in patients' functional status, other patient and wife-caregiver psychosocial outcomes during the 12 months postdischarge may be negatively affected. Thus, attention needs to focus on recovery beyond functional outcomes.

Electromyography and sonomyography analysis of the tibialis anterior: a cross sectional study

Background Foot dorsiflexion plays an essential role in both controlling balance and human gait. Electromyography (EMG) and sonomyography (SMG) can provide information on several aspects of muscle function. The aim was to establish the relationship between the EMG and SMG variables during isotonic contractions of foot dorsiflexors. Methods Twenty-seven healthy young adults performed the foot dorsiflexion test on a device designed ad hoc. EMG variables were maximum peak and area under the curve. Muscular architecture variables were muscle thickness and pennation angle. Descriptive statistical analysis, inferential analysis and a multivariate linear regression model were carried out. The confidence level was established with a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.05. Results The correlation between EMG variables and SMG variables was r = 0.462 (p < 0.05). The linear regression model to the dependent variable “peak normalized tibialis anterior (TA)” from the independent variables “pennation angle and thickness”, was significant (p = 0.002) with an explained variance of R2 = 0.693 and SEE = 0.16. Conclusions There is a significant relationship and degree of contribution between EMG and SMG variables during isotonic contractions of the TA muscle. Our results suggest that EMG and SMG can be feasible tools for monitoring and assessment of foot dorsiflexors. TA muscle parameterization and assessment is relevant in order to know that increased strength accelerates the recovery of lower limb injuries.

Ability to discriminate between healthy and low back pain sufferers using ultrasound during maximum lumbar extension

Objective To analyze the ability to discriminate between healthy individuals and individuals with chronic nonspecific low back pain (CNLBP) by measuring the relation between patient-reported outcomes and objective clinical outcome measures of the erector spinae (ES) muscles using an ultrasound during maximal isometric lumbar extension. Design Cross-sectional study with screening and diagnostic tests with no blinded comparison. Setting University laboratory. Participants Healthy individuals (n=33) and individuals with CNLBP (n=33). Interventions Each subject performed an isometric lumbar extension. With the variables measured, a discriminate analysis was performed using a value ≥6 in the Roland and Morris disability questionnaire (RMDQ) as the grouping variable. Then, a logistic regression with the functional and architectural variables was performed. A new index was obtained from each subject value input in the discriminate multivariate analysis. Main Outcome Measures Morphologic muscle variables of the ES muscle were measured through ultrasound images. The reliability of the measures was calculated through intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs). The relation between patient-reported outcomes and objective clinical outcome measures was analyzed using a discriminate function from standardized values of the variables and an analysis of the reliability of the ultrasound measurement. Results The reliability tests show an ICC value >.95 for morphologic and functional variables. The independent variables included in the analysis explained 42% (P=.003) of the dependent variable variance. Conclusions The relation between objective variables (electromyography, thickness, pennation angle) and a subjective variable (RMDQ ≥6) and the capacity of this relation to identify CNLBP within a group of healthy subjects is moderate. These results should be considered by clinicians when treating this type of patient in clinical practice.

Quantifying the heritability of task-related brain activation and performance during the N-back working memory task: A twin fMRI study

Working memory-related brain activation has been widely studied, and impaired activation patterns have been reported for several psychiatric disorders. We investigated whether variation in N-back working memory brain activation is genetically influenced in 60 pairs of twins, (29 monozygotic (MZ), 31 dizygotic (DZ); mean age 24.4 ± 1.7S.D.). Task-related brain response (BOLD percent signal difference of 2 minus 0-back) was measured in three regions of interest. Although statistical power was low due to the small sample size, for middle frontal gyrus, angular gyrus, and supramarginal gyrus, the MZ correlations were, in general, approximately twice those of the DZ pairs, with non-significant heritability estimates (14-30%) in the low-moderate range. Task performance was strongly influenced by genes (57-73%) and highly correlated with cognitive ability (0.44-0.55). This study, which will be expanded over the next 3 years, provides the first support that individual variation in working memory-related brain activation is to some extent influenced by genes.

Bivariate genome-wide association study of genetically correlated neuroimaging phenotypes from DTI and MRI through a seemingly unrelated regression model

Large multisite efforts (e.g., the ENIGMA Consortium), have shown that neuroimaging traits including tract integrity (from DTI fractional anisotropy, FA) and subcortical volumes (from T1-weighted scans) are highly heritable and promising phenotypes for discovering genetic variants associated with brain structure. However, genetic correlations (rg) among measures from these different modalities for mapping the human genome to the brain remain unknown. Discovering these correlations can help map genetic and neuroanatomical pathways implicated in development and inherited risk for disease. We use structural equation models and a twin design to find rg between pairs of phenotypes extracted from DTI and MRI scans. When controlling for intracranial volume, the caudate as well as related measures from the limbic system - hippocampal volume - showed high rg with the cingulum FA. Using an unrelated sample and a Seemingly Unrelated Regression model for bivariate analysis of this connection, we show that a multivariate GWAS approach may be more promising for genetic discovery than a univariate approach applied to each trait separately.

Tensor-based analysis of genetic influences on brain integrity using DTI in 100 twins

Information from the full diffusion tensor (DT) was used to compute voxel-wise genetic contributions to brain fiber microstructure. First, we designed a new multivariate intraclass correlation formula in the log-Euclidean framework. We then analyzed used the full multivariate structure of the tensor in a multivariate version of a voxel-wise maximum-likelihood structural equation model (SEM) that computes the variance contributions in the DTs from genetic (A), common environmental (C) and unique environmental (E) factors. Our algorithm was tested on DT images from 25 identical and 25 fraternal twin pairs. After linear and fluid registration to a mean template, we computed the intraclass correlation and Falconer's heritability statistic for several scalar DT-derived measures and for the full multivariate tensors. Covariance matrices were found from the DTs, and inputted into SEM. Analyzing the full DT enhanced the detection of A and C effects. This approach should empower imaging genetics studies that use DTI.

Genetic architecture of subcortical brain regions: Common and region-specific genetic contributions

Understanding the aetiology of patterns of variation within and covariation across brain regions is key to advancing our understanding of the functional, anatomical and developmental networks of the brain. Here we applied multivariate twin modelling and principal component analysis (PCA) to investigate the genetic architecture of the size of seven subcortical regions (caudate nucleus, thalamus, putamen, pallidum, hippocampus, amygdala and nucleus accumbens) in a genetically informative sample of adolescents and young adults (N=1038; mean age=21.6±3.2years; including 148 monozygotic and 202 dizygotic twin pairs) from the Queensland Twin IMaging (QTIM) study. Our multivariate twin modelling identified a common genetic factor that accounts for all the heritability of intracranial volume (0.88) and a substantial proportion of the heritability of all subcortical structures, particularly those of the thalamus (0.71 out of 0.88), pallidum (0.52 out of 0.75) and putamen (0.43 out of 0.89). In addition, we also found substantial region-specific genetic contributions to the heritability of the hippocampus (0.39 out of 0.79), caudate nucleus (0.46 out of 0.78), amygdala (0.25 out of 0.45) and nucleus accumbens (0.28 out of 0.52). This provides further insight into the extent and organization of subcortical genetic architecture, which includes developmental and general growth pathways, as well as the functional specialization and maturation trajectories that influence each subcortical region. This multivariate twin study identifies a common genetic factor that accounts for all the heritability of intracranial volume (0.88) and a substantial proportion of the heritability of all subcortical structures, particularly those of the thalamus (0.71 out of 0.88), pallidum (0.52 out of 0.75) and putamen (0.43 out of 0.89). In parallel, it also describes substantial region-specific genetic contributions to the heritability of the hippocampus (0.39 out of 0.79), caudate nucleus (0.46 out of 0.78), amygdala (0.25 out of 0.45) and nucleus accumbens (0.28 out of 0.52).

Relationships between major ions in coal seam gas groundwaters: Examples from the Surat and Clarence-Moreton basins

Using a combination of multivariate statistical techniques and the graphical assessment of major ion ratios, the influences on hydrochemical variability of coal seam gas (or coal bed methane) groundwaters from several sites in the Surat and Clarence-Moreton basins in Queensland, Australia, were investigated. Several characteristic relationships between major ions were observed: 1) strong positive linear correlation between the Na/Cl and alkalinity/Cl ratios; 2) an exponentially decaying trend between the Na/Cl and Na/alkalinity ratios; 3) inverse linear relationships between increasing chloride concentrations and decreasing pH for high salinity groundwaters, and; 4) high residual alkalinity for lower salinity waters, and an inverse relationship between decreasing residual alkalinity and increasing chloride concentrations for more saline waters. The interpretation of the hydrochemical data provides invaluable insights into the hydrochemical evolution of coal seam gas (CSG) groundwaters that considers both the source of major ions in coals and the influence of microbial activity. Elevated chloride and sodium concentrations in more saline groundwaters appear to be influenced by organic-bound chlorine held in the coal matrix; a sodium and chloride ion source that has largely been neglected in previous CSG groundwater studies. However, contrastingly high concentrations of bicarbonate in low salinity waters could not be explained, and are possibly associated with a number of different factors such as coal degradation, methanogenic processes, the evolution of high-bicarbonate NaHCO3 water types earlier on in the evolutionary pathway, and variability in gas reservoir characteristics. Using recently published data for CSG groundwaters in different basins, the characteristic major ion relationships identified for new data presented in this study were also observed in other CSG groundwaters from Australia, as well as for those in the Illinois Basin in the USA. This observation suggests that where coal maceral content and the dominant methanogenic pathway are similar, and where organic-bound chlorine is relatively abundant, distinct hydrochemical responses may be observed. Comparisons with published data of other NaHCO3 water types in non-CSG environments suggest that these characteristic major ion relationships described here can: i) serve as an indicator of potential CSG groundwaters in certain coal-bearing aquifers that contain methane; and ii) help in the development of strategic sampling programmes for CSG exploration and to monitor potential impacts of CSG activities on groundwater resources.

Prognostic value of biochemical liver parameters in neonatal sepsis-associated cholestasis

Aims The aim of the study was to evaluate the significance of total bilirubin, aspartate transaminase (AST), alanine transaminase and gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) for predicting outcome in sepsis-associated cholestasis. Methods: A retrospective cohort review of the hospital records was performed in 181 neonates admitted to the Neonatal Care Unit. A comparison was performed between subjects with low and high liver values based on cut-off values from ROC analysis. We defined poor prognosis to be when a subject had prolonged cholestasis of more than 3.5 months, developed severe sepsis, septic shock or had a fatal outcome. Results: The majority of the subjects were male (56%), preterm (56%) and had early onset sepsis (73%). The poor prognosis group had lower initial values of GGT compared with the good prognosis group (P = 0.003). Serum GGT (cut-off value of 85.5 U/L) and AST (cut-off value of 51 U/L) showed significant correlation with the outcome following multivariate analysis. The odds ratio (OR) of low GGT and high AST were OR 4.3 (95% CI:1.6 to11.8) and OR 2.9 (95% CI:1.1 to 8), respectively, for poor prognosis. In subjects with normal AST values, those with low GGT value had relative risk of 2.52 (95% CI:1.4 to 3.5) for poorer prognosis compared with those with normal or high GGT. Conclusion: Serum GGT and AST values can be used to predict the prognosis of patients with sepsis-associated cholestasis

Modelling interregional links in electricity price spikes

Abnormally high price spikes in spot electricity markets represent a significant risk to market participants. As such, a literature has developed that focuses on forecasting the probability of such spike events, moving beyond simply forecasting the level of price. Many univariate time series models have been proposed to dealwith spikes within an individual market region. This paper is the first to develop a multivariate self-exciting point process model for dealing with price spikes across connected regions in the Australian National Electricity Market. The importance of the physical infrastructure connecting the regions on the transmission of spikes is examined. It is found that spikes are transmitted between the regions, and the size of spikes is influenced by the available transmission capacity. It is also found that improved risk estimates are obtained when inter-regional linkages are taken into account.

The importance of neighborhood context in arts-led development

This article contributes to the creative city–community development arts policy debate by examining the association of arts organizations to various neighborhood contexts in New York City. Results from multivariate regression analyses show that arts organizations regardless of type are positioned to serve the creative class rather than play a community development role. Notably, only a small subset of locally focused organizations and organizations with smaller expenditures locate in disadvantaged and immigrant neighborhoods where they might play a direct role in community development. Instead, most arts organizations tend to locate in the most highly urbanized, amenities-rich areas with young working singles and creative industries. These findings raise important questions for incorporating the arts into neighborhood planning efforts.

Why do Queenslanders seek care in emergency departments? A population study

Objective This study aims to identify the main reasons for which first time and multiple users seek medical care through Queensland emergency departments (ED). Methods A cross-sectional survey was conducted at eight public EDs among presenting patients (n = 911). The questions measured the socio-demographic characteristics of patients, their beliefs and attitudes towards EDs services, and perceptions of health status. Bivariate and binary logistic regression analyses were performed to examine the differences between first time and multiple users of EDs. Results First time and multiple users accounted for 55.5% and 44.5%, respectively. Multiple users themselves believed to be sicker, have poorer health status, and additional and/or chronic health conditions. Multiple users more strongly believed that their condition required treatment at an ED and perceived their condition as being very serious. Multiple users reported weekly household incomes below $600, and half of the multiple users were not working as compared to 35% first time users. Multivariate analysis showed that multiple use was significantly associated with the existence of additional health problems, having chronic condition, lower self-efficacy, and need for ED treatment. Conclusions Patients who sought care for multiple times at EDs more often than first time users suffered from additional and chronic conditions. Their opinion of an ED as the most suitable place to address their current health problem was stronger than first time users. Any proposed demand management strategies need to address these beliefs together with the reasoning of patients to provide effective and appropriate care outside or within ED services.

Eccentric knee-flexor strength and risk of hamstring injuries in Rugby Union: A prospective study

BACKGROUND Hamstring strain injuries (HSIs) represent the most common cause of lost playing time in rugby union. Eccentric knee-flexor weakness and between-limb imbalance in eccentric knee-flexor strength are associated with a heightened risk of hamstring injury in other sports; however these variables have not been explored in rugby union. PURPOSE To determine if lower levels of eccentric knee-flexor strength or greater between-limb imbalance in this parameter during the Nordic hamstring exercise are risk-factors for hamstring strain injury in rugby union. STUDY DESIGN Cohort study; level of evidence, 3. METHODS This prospective study was conducted over the 2014 Super Rugby and Queensland Rugby Union seasons. In total, 178 rugby union players (age, 22.6 ± 3.8 years; height, 185 ± 6.8 cm; mass, 96.5 ± 13.1 kg) had their eccentric knee-flexor strength assessed using a custom-made device during the pre-season. Reports of previous hamstring, quadriceps, groin, calf and anterior cruciate ligament injury were also obtained. The main outcome measure was prospective occurrence of hamstring strain injury. RESULTS Twenty players suffered at least one hamstring strain during the study period. Players with a history of hamstring strain injury had 4.1 fold (RR = 4.1, 95% CI = 1.9 to 8.9, p = 0.001) greater risk of subsequent hamstring injury than players without such history. Between-limb imbalance in eccentric knee-flexor strength of ≥ 15% and ≥ 20% increased the risk of hamstring strain injury 2.4 fold (RR = 2.4, 95% CI = 1.1 to 5.5, p = 0.033) and 3.4 fold (RR = 3.4, 95% CI = 1.5 to 7.6, p = 0.003), respectively. Lower eccentric knee flexor strength and other prior injuries were not associated with increased risk of future hamstring strain. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that the risk of re-injury was augmented in players with strength imbalances. CONCLUSION Previous hamstring strain injury and between-limb imbalance in eccentric knee-flexor strength were associated with an increased risk of future hamstring strain injury in rugby union. These results support the rationale for reducing imbalance, particularly in players who have suffered a prior hamstring injury, to mitigate the risk of future injury.