Do prediction markets produce well-calibrated probability forecasts?

This article presents new theoretical and empirical evidence on the forecasting ability of prediction markets. We develop a model that predicts that the time until expiration of a prediction market should negatively affect the accuracy of prices as a forecasting tool in the direction of a ‘favourite/longshot bias’. That is, high-likelihood events are underpriced, and low-likelihood events are over-priced. We confirm this result using a large data set of prediction market transaction prices. Prediction markets are reasonably well calibrated when time to expiration is relatively short, but prices are significantly biased for events farther in the future. When time value of money is considered, the miscalibration can be exploited to earn excess returns only when the trader has a relatively low discount rate.

The reduced expression of the HADH2 protein causes X-linked mental retardation, choreoathetosis, and abnormal behavior

Recently, we defined a new syndromic form of X-linked mental retardation in a 4-generation family with a unique clinical phenotype characterized by mild mental retardation, choreoathetosis, and abnormal behavior (MRXS10). Linkage analysis in this family revealed a candidate region of 13.4 Mb between markers DXS1201 and DXS991 on Xp11; therefore, mutation analysis was performed by direct sequencing in most of the 135 annotated genes located in the region. The gene (HADH2) encoding L-3-hydroxyacyl-CoA dehydrogenase II displayed a sequence alteration (c.574 C-->A; p.R192R) in all patients and carrier females that was absent in unaffected male family members and could not be found in 2,500 control X chromosomes, including in those of 500 healthy males. The silent C-->A substitution is located in exon 5 and was shown by western blot to reduce the amount of HADH2 protein by 60%-70% in the patient. Quantitative in vivo and in vitro expression studies revealed a ratio of splicing transcript amounts different from those normally seen in controls. Apparently, the reduced expression of the wild-type fragment, which results in the decreased protein expression, rather than the increased amount of aberrant splicing fragments of the HADH2 gene, is pathogenic. Our data therefore strongly suggest that reduced expression of the HADH2 protein causes MRXS10, a phenotype different from that caused by 2-methyl-3-hydroxybutyryl-CoA dehydrogenase deficiency, which is a neurodegenerative disorder caused by missense mutations in this multifunctional protein.

Context-resonant systems perspectives in career theory

"The focus of this chapter is on context-resonant systems perspectives in career theory and their implications for practice in diverse cultural and contextual settings. For over two decades, the potential of systems theory to offer a context-resonant approach to career development has been acknowledged. Career development theory and practice, however, have been dominated for most of their history by more narrowly defined theories informed by a trait-and-factor tradition of matching the characteristics of individuals to occupations. In contrast, systems theory challenges this parts-in-isolation approach and offers a response that can accommodate the complexity of both the lives of individuals and the world of the 21st century by taking a more holistic approach that considers individuals in context. These differences in theory and practice may be attributed to the underlying philosophies that inform them. For example, the philosophy informing the trait-and-factor theoretical position, logical positivism, places value on: studying individuals in isolation from their environments; content over process; facts over feelings; objectivity over subjectivity; and views individual behavior as observable, measurable, and linear. In practice, this theory base manifests in expert-driven practices founded on the assessment of personal traits such as interests, personality, values, or beliefs which may be matched to particular occupations. The philosophy informing more recent theoretical positions, constructivism, places value on: studying individuals in their contexts; making meaning of experience through the use of subjective narrative accounts; and a belief in the capacity of individuals known as agency. In practice, this theory base manifests in practices founded on collaborative relationships with clients, narrative approaches, and a reduced emphasis on expert-driven linear processes. Thus, the tenets of constructivism which inform the systems perspectives in career theory are context-resonant. Systems theory stresses holism where the interconnectedness of all elements of a system is considered. Systems may be open or closed. Closed systems have no relationship with their external environment whereas open systems interact with their external environment and are open to external influence which is necessary for regeneration. Congruent with general systems theory, the systems perspectives emerging within career theory are based on open systems. Such systems are complex and dynamic and comprise many elements and subsystems which recursively interact with each other as well as with influences from the surrounding environment. As elements of a system should not be considered in isolation, a systems approach is holistic. Patterns of behavior are found in the relationships between the elements of dynamic systems. Because of the multiplicity of relationships within and between elements of subsystems, the possibility of linear causal explanations is reduced. Story is the mechanism through which the relationships and patterns within systems are recounted by individuals. Thus the career guidance practices emanating from theories informed by systems perspectives are inherently narrative in orientation. Narrative career counseling encourages career development to be understood from the subjective perspective of clients. The application of systemic thinking in practice takes greater account of context. In so doing, practices informed by systems theory may facilitate relevance to a diverse client group in diverse settings. In a world that has become increasingly global and diverse it seems that context-resonant systems perspectives in career theory are essential to ensure the future of career development. Translating context-resonant systems perspectives into practice offers important possibilities for methods and approaches that are respectful of diversity."--publisher website

How stable is the well-being of Australian mothers who care for young children with special health care needs?

Ninety-seven percent of children who have special health care needs are cared for by their mothers. These mothers cite that their informal care work can be intrinsically rewarding, however, the role is not without substantial difficulties and consequences. We investigated differences in the health and well-being of mothers whose young children do and do not have special health care needs. Quantitative data are drawn from Growing Up in Australia: The Longitudinal Study of Australian Children. This study employs a matched-case control methodology to compare the experiences of a group of 292 mothers whose children are identified as having long term special health care needs to those mothers whose children are typically developing at two time points; Wave 1 (2004) and Wave 3 (2008). The findings support previous research that mothers of children with special health care needs have poorer general health and mental health than mothers whose children do not have special needs. Mothers of children with special health care needs also perceived life as more difficult. Longitudinally, this study also shows that maternal well-being remains relatively stable during the years when children are transitioning to formal schooling. Implications for policy makers, practitioners and early childhood professionals are discussed.

Molecular dynamics simulation of mechanical behavior of osteopontin-hydroxyapatite interfaces

Bone is characterized with an optimized combination of high stiffness and toughness. The understanding of bone nanomechanics is critical to the development of new artificial biological materials with unique properties. In this work, the mechanical characteristics of the interfaces between osteopontin (OPN, a noncollagenous protein in extrafibrillar protein matrix) and hydroxyapatite (HA, a mineral nanoplatelet in mineralized collagen fibrils) were investigated using molecular dynamics method. We found that the interfacial mechanical behaviour is governed by the electrostatic attraction between acidic amino acid residues in OPN and calcium in HA. Higher energy dissipation is associated with the OPN peptides with a higher number of acidic amino acid residues. When loading in the interface direction, new bonds between some acidic residues and HA surface are formed, resulting in a stick-slip type motion of OPN peptide on the HA surface and high interfacial energy dissipation. The formation of new bonds during loading is considered to be a key mechanism responsible for high fracture resistance observed in bone and other biological materials.

Pore size distribution and accessible pore size distribution in bituminous coals

The porosity and pore size distribution of coals determine many of their properties, from gas release to their behavior on carbonization, and yet most methods of determining pore size distribution can only examine a restricted size range. Even then, only accessible pores can be investigated with these methods. Small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) and ultra small-angle neutron scattering (USANS) are increasingly used to characterize the size distribution of all of the pores non-destructively. Here we have used USANS/SANS to examine 24 well-characterized bituminous and subbituminous coals: three from the eastern US, two from Poland, one from New Zealand and the rest from the Sydney and Bowen Basins in Eastern Australia, and determined the relationships of the scattering intensity corresponding to different pore sizes with other coal properties. The range of pore radii examinable with these techniques is 2.5nm to 7μm. We confirm that there is a wide range of pore sizes in coal. The pore size distribution was found to be strongly affected by both rank and type (expressed as either hydrogen or vitrinite content) in the size range 250nm to 7μm and 5 to 10nm, but weakly in intermediate regions. The results suggest that different mechanisms control coal porosity on different scales. Contrast-matching USANS and SANS were also used to determine the size distribution of the fraction of the pores in these coals that are inaccessible to deuterated methane, CD4, at ambient temperature. In some coals most of the small (~10nm) pores were found to be inaccessible to CD4 on the time scale of the measurement (~30min–16h). This inaccessibility suggests that in these coals a considerable fraction of inherent methane may be trapped for extended periods of time, thus reducing the effectiveness of methane release from (or sorption by) these coals. Although the number of small pores was less in higher rank coals, the fraction of total pores that was inaccessible was not rank dependent. In the Australian coals, at the 10nm to 50nm size scales the pores in inertinites appeared to be completely accessible to CD4, whereas the pores in the vitrinite were about 75% inaccessible. Unlike the results for total porosity that showed no regional effects on relationships between porosity and coal properties, clear regional differences in the relationships between fraction of closed porosity and coal properties were found. The 10 to 50nm-sized pores of inertinites of the US and Polish coals examined appeared less accessible to methane than those of the inertinites of Australian coals. This difference in pore accessibility in inertinites may explain why empirical relationships between fluidity and coking properties developed using Carboniferous coals do not apply to Australian coals.

Accessibility of pores in coal to methane and carbon dioxide

Fluid–solid interactions in natural and engineered porous solids underlie a variety of technological processes, including geological storage of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, enhanced coal bed methane recovery, membrane separation, and heterogeneous catalysis. The size, distribution and interconnectivity of pores, the chemical and physical properties of the solid and fluid phases collectively dictate how fluid molecules migrate into and through the micro- and meso-porous media, adsorb and ultimately react with the solid surfaces. Due to the high penetration power and relatively short wavelength of neutrons, smallangle neutron scattering (SANS) as well as ultra small-angle scattering (USANS) techniques are ideally suited for assessing the phase behavior of confined fluids under pressure as well as for evaluating the total porosity in engineered and natural porous systems including coal. Here we demonstrate that SANS and USANS can be also used for determining the fraction of the pore volume that is actually accessible to fluids as a function of pore sizes and study the fraction of inaccessible pores as a function of pore size in three coals from the Illinois Basin (USA) and Bowen Basin (Australia). Experiments were performed at CO2 and methane pressures up to 780 bar, including pressures corresponding to zero average contrast condition (ZAC), which is the pressure where no scattering from the accessible pores occurs. Scattering curves at the ZAC were compared with the scattering from same coals under vacuum and analysed using a newly developed approach that shows that the volume fraction of accessible pores in these coals varies between �90% in the macropore region to �30% in the mesopore region and the variation is distinctive for each of the examined coals. The developed methodology may be also applied for assessing the volume of accessible pores in other natural underground formations of interest for CO2 sequestration, such as saline aquifers as well as for estimating closed porosity in engineered porous solids of technological importance.

Nanostructured high strength Mg-5%Al-x%Nd alloys prepared by mechanical alloying

Nanostructured high strength Mg-5%Al-x%Nd alloys were prepared by mechanical alloying. Microstructural characterization reveled average crystalline size to be about 30 nm after mechanical alloying while it increased to about 90 nm after sintering and extrusion. Mechanical properties showed increase in 0.2% yield stress, ultimate tensile strength was attributed to reduction in gain size as well as to the enhanced diffusion after mechanical activation. Although ultra high yield stress was observed from the specimen with 5% Nd, its ductility was reduced to about 1.6%.

Monitoring phase behavior of sub- and supercritical CO2 confined in porous fractal silica with 85% porosity

Phase behavior of CO2 confined in porous fractal silica with volume fraction of SiO2 φs = 0.15 was investigated using small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) and ultrasmall-angle neutron scattering (USANS) techniques. The range of fluid densities (0<(FCO2)bulk<0.977 g/cm3) and temperatures (T=22 °C, 35 and 60 °C) corresponded to gaseous, liquid, near critical and supercritical conditions of the bulk fluid. The results revealed formation of a dense adsorbed phase in small pores with sizes D<40 A° at all temperatures. At low pressure (P <55 bar, (FCO2)bulk <0.2 g/cm3) the average fluid density in pores may exceed the density of bulk fluid by a factor up to 6.5 at T=22 °C. This “enrichment factor” gradually decreases with temperature, however significant fluid densification in small pores still exists at temperature T=60°C, i.e., far above the liquid-gas critical temperature of bulk CO2 (TC=31.1 °C). Larger pores are only partially filled with liquid-like adsorbed layer which coexists with unadsorbed fluid in the pore core. With increasing pressure, all pores become uniformly filled with the fluid, showing no measurable enrichment or depletion of the porous matrix with CO2.

The importance of social support for students with intellectual disability : an intervention to promote mental health and well-being

Children and adolescents with intellectual disability have higher rates of mental health problems compared with there typically developing peers. Social support has been identified as an important protective factor for psychological well - being. In this paper we discuss the benefits of social support networks, and consider approaches for promoting children’s perceptions of the availability of social support. We describe an evidence-based intervention that has been specially adapted and implemented for students with intellectual disability in school settings. In a randomised controlled trial, the Aussie Optimism Resilience Skills Program was associated with improved perceptions of social support following a 10-week intervention. Educators need to be aware of the increased vulnerability of students with intellectual disability to the development mental health problems and the proactive ways in which they can promote psychological well - being within their classrooms.

Analysis of strain-rate dependent mechanical behavior of single chondrocyte : a finite element study

Various studies have been conducted to investigate the effects of impact loading on cartilage damage and chondrocyte death. These have shown that the rate and magnitude of the applied strain significantly influence chondrocyte death, and that cell death occurred mostly in the superficial zone of cartilage suggesting the need to further understand the fundamental mechanisms underlying the chondrocytes death induced at certain levels of strain-rate. To date there is no comprehensive study providing insight on this phenomenon. The aim of this study is to examine the strain-rate dependent behavior of a single chondrocyte using a computational approach based on Finite Element Method (FEM). An FEM model was developed using various mechanical models, which were Standard Neo-Hookean Solid (SnHS), porohyperelastic (PHE) and poroviscohyperelastic (PVHE) to simulate Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) experiments of chondrocyte. The PVHE showed, it can capture both relaxation and loading rate dependent behaviors of chondrocytes, accurately compared to other models.

Connectivity of workflow nets : the foundations of stepwise verification

Behavioral models capture operational principles of real-world or designed systems. Formally, each behavioral model defines the state space of a system, i.e., its states and the principles of state transitions. Such a model is the basis for analysis of the system’s properties. In practice, state spaces of systems are immense, which results in huge computational complexity for their analysis. Behavioral models are typically described as executable graphs, whose execution semantics encodes a state space. The structure theory of behavioral models studies the relations between the structure of a model and the properties of its state space. In this article, we use the connectivity property of graphs to achieve an efficient and extensive discovery of the compositional structure of behavioral models; behavioral models get stepwise decomposed into components with clear structural characteristics and inter-component relations. At each decomposition step, the discovered compositional structure of a model is used for reasoning on properties of the whole state space of the system. The approach is exemplified by means of a concrete behavioral model and verification criterion. That is, we analyze workflow nets, a well-established tool for modeling behavior of distributed systems, with respect to the soundness property, a basic correctness property of workflow nets. Stepwise verification allows the detection of violations of the soundness property by inspecting small portions of a model, thereby considerably reducing the amount of work to be done to perform soundness checks. Besides formal results, we also report on findings from applying our approach to an industry model collection.

Performance-based structural fire design and testing of structures

Fire incident in buildings is common in Hong Kong and this could lead to heavy casualties due to its high population density, so the fire safety design of the framed structure is an important research topic. This paper describes a computer tool for determination of capacity of structural safety against various fire scenarios and the well-accepted second-order direct plastic analysis is adopted for simulation of material yielding and buckling. A computer method is developed to predict structural behaviour of bare steel framed structures at elevated temperatures but the work can be applied to structures made of other materials. These effects of thermal expansion and material degradation due to heating are required to be considered in order to capture the actual behavior of the structure under fire. Degradation of material strength with increasing temperature is included by a set of temperature-stress-strain curves according to BS5950 Part 8 mainly, which implicitly allows for creep deformation. Several numerical and experimental verifications of framed structures are presented and compared against solutions by other researchers. The proposed method allows us to adopt the truly performance-based structural fire analysis and design with significant saving in cost and time.

Desafios Para A Implementação Do Processo De Projeto Colaborativo: Análise Do Fator Humano

The ineffectiveness of current design processes has been well studied and has resulted in widespread calls for the evolution and development of new management processes. Perhaps one problem is that with the advent of BIM we are moving from one stage to another without necessarily having resolved all the issues. CAD design technology, if well handled, could have significantly raised the level of quality and efficiency of current processes, but in practice this was not fully realized. Therefore, technology alone can´t solve all the problems and the advent of BIM could result in a similar bottleneck. For a precise definition of the problem to be solved we should start by understanding what are the main current bottlenecks that have yet to be overcome by either new technologies or management processes, and the impact of human behavior related issues despite the advent of new technologies. The fragmented and dispersed nature of the AEC sector and the huge number of small organizations that comprise it would probably be a major limiting factor. Several authors have addressed this issue and more recently IDDS has been defined as the highest level of achievement. However, what is written on IDDS shows an extremely ideal situation on a state to be achieved; it shows a holistic utopian proposition with the intent to create the research agenda to move towards that state. Key to IDDS is the framing of a new management model which should address the problems associated with key aspects: technology, processes, policies and people. One of the primary areas to be further studied is the process of collaborative work and understanding, together with the development of proposals to overcome the many cultural barriers that currently exist and impede the advance of new management methods. The purpose of this paper is to define and delimit problems to be solved so that it is possible to implement a new management model for a collaborative design process.

Physical activity and determinants of physical activity in obese and non-obese children

OBJECTIVE To compare the physical activity (PA) patterns and the hypothesized psychosocial and environmental determinants of PA in an ethnically diverse sample of obese and non-obese middle school children. DESIGN Cross-sectional study. SUBJECTS One-hundred and thirty-three non-obese and 54 obese sixth grade children (mean age of 11.4 +/-0.6). Obesity status determined using the age-, race- and gender-specific 95th percentile for BMI from NHANES-1. MEASUREMENTS Objective measurements were collected of PA over a 7-day period using the CSA 7164 accelerometer: total daily counts; daily moderate (3-5.9 METs) physical activity (MPA); daily vigorous physical activity (greater than or equal to 6 METs; VPA); and weekly number of 5, 10 and 20 min bouts of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (greater than or equal to 3 METs, MVPA). Self-report measures were collected of PA self-efficacy; social influences regarding PA, beliefs about PA outcomes; perceived PA levels of parents and peers, access to sporting and/or fitness equipment at home, involvement in community-based PA organizations; participation in community sports teams; and hours spent watching television or playing video games. RESULTS Compared to their non-obese counterparts, obese children exhibited significantly lower daily accumulations of total counts, MPA and VPA as well as significantly fewer 5, 10 and 20 min bouts of MVPA. Obese children reported significantly lower levels of PA self-efficacy, were involved in significantly fewer community organizations promoting PA and were significantly less likely to report their father or male guardian as physically active. CONCLUSIONS The results are consistent with the hypothesis that physical inactivity is an important contributing factor in the maintenance of childhood obesity. Interventions to promote PA in obese children should endeavor to boost self-efficacy perceptions regarding exercise, increase awareness of, and access to, community PA outlets, and increase parental modeling of PA.