Accuracy of rate estimation using relaxed-clock models with a critical focus on the early metazoan radiation

In recent years, a number of phylogenetic methods have been developed for estimating molecular rates and divergence dates under models that relax the molecular clock constraint by allowing rate change throughout the tree. These methods are being used with increasing frequency, but there have been few studies into their accuracy. We tested the accuracy of several relaxed-clock methods (penalized likelihood and Bayesian inference using various models of rate change) using nucleotide sequences simulated on a nine-taxon tree. When the sequences evolved with a constant rate, the methods were able to infer rates accurately, but estimates were more precise when a molecular clock was assumed. When the sequences evolved under a model of autocorrelated rate change, rates were accurately estimated using penalized likelihood and by Bayesian inference using lognormal and exponential models of rate change, while other models did not perform as well. When the sequences evolved under a model of uncorrelated rate change, only Bayesian inference using an exponential rate model performed well. Collectively, the results provide a strong recommendation for using the exponential model of rate change if a conservative approach to divergence time estimation is required. A case study is presented in which we use a simulation-based approach to examine the hypothesis of elevated rates in the Cambrian period, and it is found that these high rate estimates might be an artifact of the rate estimation method. If this bias is present, then the ages of metazoan divergences would be systematically underestimated. The results of this study have implications for studies of molecular rates and divergence dates.

Time dependency of molecular rate estimates and systematic overestimation of recent divergence times

Studies of molecular evolutionary rates have yielded a wide range of rate estimates for various genes and taxa. Recent studies based on population-level and pedigree data have produced remarkably high estimates of mutation rate, which strongly contrast with substitution rates inferred in phylogenetic (species-level) studies. Using Bayesian analysis with a relaxed-clock model, we estimated rates for three groups of mitochondrial data: avian protein-coding genes, primate protein-coding genes, and primate d-loop sequences. In all three cases, we found a measurable transition between the high, short-term (<1–2 Myr) mutation rate and the low, long-term substitution rate. The relationship between the age of the calibration and the rate of change can be described by a vertically translated exponential decay curve, which may be used for correcting molecular date estimates. The phylogenetic substitution rates in mitochondria are approximately 0.5% per million years for avian protein-coding sequences and 1.5% per million years for primate protein-coding and d-loop sequences. Further analyses showed that purifying selection offers the most convincing explanation for the observed relationship between the estimated rate and the depth of the calibration. We rule out the possibility that it is a spurious result arising from sequence errors, and find it unlikely that the apparent decline in rates over time is caused by mutational saturation. Using a rate curve estimated from the d-loop data, several dates for last common ancestors were calculated: modern humans and Neandertals (354 ka; 222–705 ka), Neandertals (108 ka; 70–156 ka), and modern humans (76 ka; 47–110 ka). If the rate curve for a particular taxonomic group can be accurately estimated, it can be a useful tool for correcting divergence date estimates by taking the rate decay into account. Our results show that it is invalid to extrapolate molecular rates of change across different evolutionary timescales, which has important consequences for studies of populations, domestication, conservation genetics, and human evolution.

Geologically ancient DNA: fact or artefact?

Studies continue to report ancient DNA sequences and viable microbial cells that are many millions of years old. In this paper we evaluate some of the most extravagant claims of geologically ancient DNA. We conclude that although exciting, the reports suffer from inadequate experimental setup and insufficient authentication of results. Consequently, it remains doubtful whether amplifiable DNA sequences and viable bacteria can survive over geological timescales. To enhance the credibility of future studies and assist in discarding false-positive results, we propose a rigorous set of authentication criteria for work with geologically ancient DNA.

Combined mitochondrial and nuclear DNA sequences resolve the interrelations of the major Australasian marsupial radiations

Australasian marsupials include three major radiations, the insectivorous/carnivorous Dasyuromorphia, the omnivorous bandicoots (Peramelemorphia), and the largely herbivorous diprotodontians. Morphologists have generally considered the bandicoots and diprotodontians to be closely related, most prominently because they are both syndactylous (with the 2nd and 3rd pedal digits being fused). Molecular studies have been unable to confirm or reject this Syndactyla hypothesis. Here we present new mitochondrial (mt) genomes from a spiny bandicoot (Echymipera rufescens) and two dasyurids, a fat-tailed dunnart (Sminthopsis crassicaudata) and a northern quoll (Dasyurus hallucatus). By comparing trees derived from pairwise base-frequency differences between taxa with standard (absolute, uncorrected) distance trees, we infer that composition bias among mt protein-coding and RNA sequences is sufficient to mislead tree reconstruction. This can explain incongruence between trees obtained from mt and nuclear data sets. However, after excluding major sources of compositional heterogeneity, both the “reduced-bias” mt and nuclear data sets clearly favor a bandicoot plus dasyuromorphian association, as well as a grouping of kangaroos and possums (Phalangeriformes) among diprotodontians. Notably, alternatives to these groupings could only be confidently rejected by combining the mt and nuclear data. Elsewhere on the tree, Dromiciops appears to be sister to the monophyletic Australasian marsupials, whereas the placement of the marsupial mole (Notoryctes) remains problematic. More generally, we contend that it is desirable to combine mt genome and nuclear sequences for inferring vertebrate phylogeny, but as separately modeled process partitions. This strategy depends on detecting and excluding (or accounting for) major sources of nonhistorical signal, such as from compositional nonstationarity.

Relaxed phylogenetics and dating with confidence

In phylogenetics, the unrooted model of phylogeny and the strict molecular clock model are two extremes of a continuum. Despite their dominance in phylogenetic inference, it is evident that both are biologically unrealistic and that the real evolutionary process lies between these two extremes. Fortunately, intermediate models employing relaxed molecular clocks have been described. These models open the gate to a new field of “relaxed phylogenetics.” Here we introduce a new approach to performing relaxed phylogenetic analysis. We describe how it can be used to estimate phylogenies and divergence times in the face of uncertainty in evolutionary rates and calibration times. Our approach also provides a means for measuring the clocklikeness of datasets and comparing this measure between different genes and phylogenies. We find no significant rate autocorrelation among branches in three large datasets, suggesting that autocorrelated models are not necessarily suitable for these data. In addition, we place these datasets on the continuum of clocklikeness between a strict molecular clock and the alternative unrooted extreme. Finally, we present analyses of 102 bacterial, 106 yeast, 61 plant, 99 metazoan, and 500 primate alignments. From these we conclude that our method is phylogenetically more accurate and precise than the traditional unrooted model while adding the ability to infer a timescale to evolution.

Evidence for time dependency of molecular rate estimates

Long-term changes in the genetic composition of a population occur by the fixation of new mutations, a process known as substitution. The rate at which mutations arise in a population and the rate at which they are fixed are expected to be equal under neutral conditions (Kimura, 1968). Between the appearance of a new mutation and its eventual fate of fixation or loss, there will be a period in which it exists as a transient polymorphism in the population (Kimura and Ohta, 1971). If the majority of mutations are deleterious (and nonlethal), the fixation probabilities of these transient polymorphisms are reduced and the mutation rate will exceed the substitution rate (Kimura, 1983). Consequently, different apparent rates may be observed on different time scales of the molecular evolutionary process (Penny, 2005; Penny and Holmes, 2001). The substitution rate of the mitochondrial protein-coding genes of birds and mammals has been traditionally recognized to be about 0.01 substitutions/site/million years (Myr) (Brown et al., 1979; Ho, 2007; Irwin et al., 1991; Shields and Wilson, 1987), with the noncoding D-loop evolving several times more quickly (e.g., Pesole et al., 1992; Quinn, 1992). Over the past decade, there has been mounting evidence that instantaneous mutation rates substantially exceed substitution rates, in a range of organisms (e.g., Denver et al., 2000; Howell et al., 2003; Lambert et al., 2002; Mao et al., 2006; Mumm et al., 1997; Parsons et al., 1997; Santos et al., 2005). The immediate reaction to the first of these findings was that the polymorphisms generated by the elevated mutation rate are short-lived, perhaps extending back only a few hundred years (Gibbons, 1998; Macaulay et al., 1997). That is, purifying selection was thought to remove these polymorphisms very rapidly.

Dating of divergences within the Rattus genus phylogeny using whole mitochondrial genomes

The timing and order of divergences within the genus Rattus have, to date, been quite speculative. In order to address these important issues we sequenced six new whole mitochondrial genomes from wild-caught specimens from four species, Rattus exulans, Rattus praetor, Rattus rattus and Rattus tanezumi. The only rat whole mitochondrial genomes available previously were all from Rattus norvegicus specimens. Our phylogenetic and dating analyses place the deepest divergence within Rattus at ∼3.5 million years ago (Mya). This divergence separates the New Guinean endemic R. praetor lineage from the Asian lineages. Within the Asian/Island Southeast Asian clade R. norvegicus diverged earliest at ∼2.9 Mya. R. exulans and the ancestor of the sister species R. rattus and R. tanezumi subsequently diverged at ∼2.2 Mya, with R. rattus and R. tanezumi separating as recently as ∼0.4 Mya. Our results give both a better resolved species divergence order and diversification dates within Rattus than previous studies.

The Prehistory of Potyviruses: Their Initial Radiation Was during the Dawn of Agriculture

Background: Potyviruses are found world wide, are spread by probing aphids and cause considerable crop damage. Potyvirus is one of the two largest plant virus genera and contains about 15% of all named plant virus species. When and why did the potyviruses become so numerous? Here we answer the first question and discuss the other. Methods and Findings: We have inferred the phylogenies of the partial coat protein gene sequences of about 50 potyviruses, and studied in detail the phylogenies of some using various methods and evolutionary models. Their phylogenies have been calibrated using historical isolation and outbreak events: the plum pox virus epidemic which swept through Europe in the 20th century, incursions of potyviruses into Australia after agriculture was established by European colonists, the likely transport of cowpea aphid-borne mosaic virus in cowpea seed from Africa to the Americas with the 16th century slave trade and the similar transport of papaya ringspot virus from India to the Americas. Conclusions/Significance: Our studies indicate that the partial coat protein genes of potyviruses have an evolutionary rate of about 1.1561024 nucleotide substitutions/site/year, and the initial radiation of the potyviruses occurred only about 6,600 years ago, and hence coincided with the dawn of agriculture. We discuss the ways in which agriculture may have triggered the prehistoric emergence of potyviruses and fostered their speciation.

Family-level relationships among the Australasian marsupial “herbivores” (Diprotodontia: Koala, wombats, kangaroos and possums)

The marsupial order Diprotodontia includes 10 extant families, which occupy all terrestrial habitats across Australia and New Guinea and have evolved remarkable dietary and locomotory diversity. Despite considerable attention, the interrelations of these families have for the most part remained elusive. In this study, we separately model mitochondrial RNA and protein-coding sequences in addition to nuclear protein-coding sequences to provide near-complete resolution of diprotodontian family-level phylogeny. We show that alternative topologies inferred in some previous studies are likely to be artifactual, resulting from branch-length and compositional biases. Subordinal groupings resolved herein include Vombatiformes (wombats and koala) and Phalangerida, which in turn comprises Petauroidea (petaurid gliders and striped, feathertail, ringtail and honey possums) and a clade whose plesiomorphic members possess blade-like premolars (phalangerid possums, kangaroos and their allies and most likely, pygmy possums). The topology resolved reveals ecological niche structuring among diprotodontians that has likely been maintained for more than 40 million years.

Accounting for calibration uncertainty in phylogenetic estimation of evolutionary divergence times

The estimation of phylogenetic divergence times from sequence data is an important component of many molecular evolutionary studies. There is now a general appreciation that the procedure of divergence dating is considerably more complex than that initially described in the 1960s by Zuckerkandl and Pauling (1962, 1965). In particular, there has been much critical attention toward the assumption of a global molecular clock, resulting in the development of increasingly sophisticated techniques for inferring divergence times from sequence data. In response to the documentation of widespread departures from clocklike behavior, a variety of local- and relaxed-clock methods have been proposed and implemented. Local-clock methods permit different molecular clocks in different parts of the phylogenetic tree, thereby retaining the advantages of the classical molecular clock while casting off the restrictive assumption of a single, global rate of substitution (Rambaut and Bromham 1998; Yoder and Yang 2000).

Branch-length estimation bias misleads molecular dating for a vertebrate mitochondrial phylogeny

Despite recent methodological advances in inferring the time-scale of biological evolution from molecular data, the fundamental question of whether our substitution models are sufficiently well specified to accurately estimate branch-lengths has received little attention. I examine this implicit assumption of all molecular dating methods, on a vertebrate mitochondrial protein-coding dataset. Comparison with analyses in which the data are RY-coded (AG → R; CT → Y) suggests that even rates-across-sites maximum likelihood greatly under-compensates for multiple substitutions among the standard (ACGT) NT-coded data, which has been subject to greater phylogenetic signal erosion. Accordingly, the fossil record indicates that branch-lengths inferred from the NT-coded data translate into divergence time overestimates when calibrated from deeper in the tree. Intriguingly, RY-coding led to the opposite result. The underlying NT and RY substitution model misspecifications likely relate respectively to “hidden” rate heterogeneity and changes in substitution processes across the tree, for which I provide simulated examples. Given the magnitude of the inferred molecular dating errors, branch-length estimation biases may partly explain current conflicts with some palaeontological dating estimates.

The evolutionary history of the extinct ratite moa and New Zealand Neogene paleogeography

The ratite moa (Aves: Dinornithiformes) were a speciose group of massive graviportal avian herbivores that dominated the New Zealand (NZ) ecosystem until their extinction �600 years ago. The phylogeny and evolutionary history of this morphologically diverse order has remained controversial since their initial description in 1839. We synthesize mitochondrial phylogenetic information from 263 subfossil moa specimens from across NZ with morphological, ecological, and new geological data to create the first comprehensive phylogeny, taxonomy, and evolutionary timeframe for all of the species of an extinct order. We also present an important new geological/paleogeographical model of late Cenozoic NZ, which suggests that terrestrial biota on the North and South Island landmasses were isolated for most of the past 20–30 Ma. The data reveal that the patterns of genetic diversity within and between differentmoaclades reflect a complex history following a major marine transgression in the Oligocene, affected by marine barriers, tectonic activity, and glacial cycles. Surprisingly, the remarkable morphological radiation of moa appears to have occurred much more recently than previous early Miocene (ca. 15 Ma) estimates, and was coincident with the accelerated uplift of the Southern Alps just ca. 5–8.5 Ma. Together with recent fossil evidence, these data suggest that the recent evolutionary history of nearly all of the iconic NZ terrestrial biota occurred principally on just the South Island.

The evolutionary history of cockatoos (Aves: Psittaciformes: Cacatuidae)

Cockatoos are the distinctive family Cacatuidae, a major lineage of the order of parrots (Psittaciformes) and distributed throughout the Australasian region of the world. However, the evolutionary history of cockatoos is not well understood. We investigated the phylogeny of cockatoos based on three mitochondrial and three nuclear DNA genes obtained from 16 of 21 species of Cacatuidae. In addition, five novel mitochondrial genomes were used to estimate time of divergence and our estimates indicate Cacatuidae diverged from Psittacidae approximately 40.7 million years ago (95% CI 51.6–30.3 Ma) during the Eocene. Our data shows Cacatuidae began to diversify approximately 27.9 Ma (95% CI 38.1–18.3 Ma) during the Oligocene. The early to middle Miocene (20–10 Ma) was a significant period in the evolution of modern Australian environments and vegetation, in which a transformation from mainly mesic to xeric habitats (e.g., fire-adapted sclerophyll vegetation and grasslands) occurred. We hypothesize that this environmental transformation was a driving force behind the diversification of cockatoos. A detailed multi-locus molecular phylogeny enabled us to resolve the phylogenetic placements of the Palm Cockatoo (Probosciger aterrimus), Galah (Eolophus roseicapillus), Gang-gang Cockatoo (Callocephalon fimbriatum) and Cockatiel (Nymphicus hollandicus), which have historically been difficult to place within Cacatuidae. When the molecular evidence is analysed in concert with morphology, it is clear that many of the cockatoo species’ diagnostic phenotypic traits such as plumage colour, body size, wing shape and bill morphology have evolved in parallel or convergently across lineages.

Bird evolution: testing the Metaves clade with six new mitochondrial genomes

Background Evolutionary biologists are often misled by convergence of morphology and this has been common in the study of bird evolution. However, the use of molecular data sets have their own problems and phylogenies based on short DNA sequences have the potential to mislead us too. The relationships among clades and timing of the evolution of modern birds (Neoaves) has not yet been well resolved. Evidence of convergence of morphology remain controversial. With six new bird mitochondrial genomes (hummingbird, swift, kagu, rail, flamingo and grebe) we test the proposed Metaves/Coronaves division within Neoaves and the parallel radiations in this primary avian clade. Results Our mitochondrial trees did not return the Metaves clade that had been proposed based on one nuclear intron sequence. We suggest that the high number of indels within the seventh intron of the β-fibrinogen gene at this phylogenetic level, which left a dataset with not a single site across the alignment shared by all taxa, resulted in artifacts during analysis. With respect to the overall avian tree, we find the flamingo and grebe are sister taxa and basal to the shorebirds (Charadriiformes). Using a novel site-stripping technique for noise-reduction we found this relationship to be stable. The hummingbird/swift clade is outside the large and very diverse group of raptors, shore and sea birds. Unexpectedly the kagu is not closely related to the rail in our analysis, but because neither the kagu nor the rail have close affinity to any taxa within this dataset of 41 birds, their placement is not yet resolved. Conclusion Our phylogenetic hypothesis based on 41 avian mitochondrial genomes (13,229 bp) rejects monophyly of seven Metaves species and we therefore conclude that the members of Metaves do not share a common evolutionary history within the Neoaves.