Real - time prediction of rainfall induced instability of residual soil slopes associated with deep cracks

The early warning based on real-time prediction of rain-induced instability of natural residual slopes helps to minimise human casualties due to such slope failures. Slope instability prediction is complicated, as it is influenced by many factors, including soil properties, soil behaviour, slope geometry, and the location and size of deep cracks in the slope. These deep cracks can facilitate rainwater infiltration into the deep soil layers and reduce the unsaturated shear strength of residual soil. Subsequently, it can form a slip surface, triggering a landslide even in partially saturated soil slopes. Although past research has shown the effects of surface-cracks on soil stability, research examining the influence of deep-cracks on soil stability is very limited. This study aimed to develop methodologies for predicting the real-time rain-induced instability of natural residual soil slopes with deep cracks. The results can be used to warn against potential rain-induced slope failures. The literature review conducted on rain induced slope instability of unsaturated residual soil associated with soil crack, reveals that only limited studies have been done in the following areas related to this topic: - Methods for detecting deep cracks in residual soil slopes. - Practical application of unsaturated soil theory in slope stability analysis. - Mechanistic methods for real-time prediction of rain induced residual soil slope instability in critical slopes with deep cracks. Two natural residual soil slopes at Jombok Village, Ngantang City, Indonesia, which are located near a residential area, were investigated to obtain the parameters required for the stability analysis of the slope. A survey first identified all related field geometrical information including slope, roads, rivers, buildings, and boundaries of the slope. Second, the electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) method was used on the slope to identify the location and geometrical characteristics of deep cracks. The two ERT array models employed in this research are: Dipole-dipole and Azimuthal. Next, bore-hole tests were conducted at different locations in the slope to identify soil layers and to collect undisturbed soil samples for laboratory measurement of the soil parameters required for the stability analysis. At the same bore hole locations, Standard Penetration Test (SPT) was undertaken. Undisturbed soil samples taken from the bore-holes were tested in a laboratory to determine the variation of the following soil properties with the depth: - Classification and physical properties such as grain size distribution, atterberg limits, water content, dry density and specific gravity. - Saturated and unsaturated shear strength properties using direct shear apparatus. - Soil water characteristic curves (SWCC) using filter paper method. - Saturated hydraulic conductivity. The following three methods were used to detect and simulate the location and orientation of cracks in the investigated slope: (1) The electrical resistivity distribution of sub-soil obtained from ERT. (2) The profile of classification and physical properties of the soil, based on laboratory testing of soil samples collected from bore-holes and visual observations of the cracks on the slope surface. (3) The results of stress distribution obtained from 2D dynamic analysis of the slope using QUAKE/W software, together with the laboratory measured soil parameters and earthquake records of the area. It was assumed that the deep crack in the slope under investigation was generated by earthquakes. A good agreement was obtained when comparing the location and the orientation of the cracks detected by Method-1 and Method-2. However, the simulated cracks in Method-3 were not in good agreement with the output of Method-1 and Method-2. This may have been due to the material properties used and the assumptions made, for the analysis. From Method-1 and Method-2, it can be concluded that the ERT method can be used to detect the location and orientation of a crack in a soil slope, when the ERT is conducted in very dry or very wet soil conditions. In this study, the cracks detected by the ERT were used for stability analysis of the slope. The stability of the slope was determined using the factor of safety (FOS) of a critical slip surface obtained by SLOPE/W using the limit equilibrium method. Pore-water pressure values for the stability analysis were obtained by coupling the transient seepage analysis of the slope using finite element based software, called SEEP/W. A parametric study conducted on the stability of an investigated slope revealed that the existence of deep cracks and their location in the soil slope are critical for its stability. The following two steps are proposed to predict the rain-induced instability of a residual soil slope with cracks. (a) Step-1: The transient stability analysis of the slope is conducted from the date of the investigation (initial conditions are based on the investigation) to the preferred date (current date), using measured rainfall data. Then, the stability analyses are continued for the next 12 months using the predicted annual rainfall that will be based on the previous five years rainfall data for the area. (b) Step-2: The stability of the slope is calculated in real-time using real-time measured rainfall. In this calculation, rainfall is predicted for the next hour or 24 hours and the stability of the slope is calculated one hour or 24 hours in advance using real time rainfall data. If Step-1 analysis shows critical stability for the forthcoming year, it is recommended that Step-2 be used for more accurate warning against the future failure of the slope. In this research, the results of the application of the Step-1 on an investigated slope (Slope-1) showed that its stability was not approaching a critical value for year 2012 (until 31st December 2012) and therefore, the application of Step-2 was not necessary for the year 2012. A case study (Slope-2) was used to verify the applicability of the complete proposed predictive method. A landslide event at Slope-2 occurred on 31st October 2010. The transient seepage and stability analyses of the slope using data obtained from field tests such as Bore-hole, SPT, ERT and Laboratory tests, were conducted on 12th June 2010 following the Step-1 and found that the slope in critical condition on that current date. It was then showing that the application of the Step-2 could have predicted this failure by giving sufficient warning time.

Assessing the short-term effects of heatwaves on mortality and morbidity in Brisbane, Australia : comparison of case-crossover and time series analyses

Background Heat-related impacts may have greater public health implications as climate change continues. It is important to appropriately characterize the relationship between heatwave and health outcomes. However, it is unclear whether a case-crossover design can be effectively used to assess the event- or episode-related health effects. This study examined the association between exposure to heatwaves and mortality and emergency hospital admissions (EHAs) from non-external causes in Brisbane, Australia, using both case-crossover and time series analyses approaches. Methods Poisson generalised additive model (GAM) and time-stratified case-crossover analyses were used to assess the short-term impact of heatwaves on mortality and EHAs. Heatwaves exhibited a significant impact on mortality and EHAs after adjusting for air pollution, day of the week, and season. Results For time-stratified case-crossover analysis, odds ratios of mortality and EHAs during heatwaves were 1.62 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.36–1.94) and 1.22 (95% CI: 1.14–1.30) at lag 1, respectively. Time series GAM models gave similar results. Relative risks of mortality and EHAs ranged from 1.72 (95% CI: 1.40–2.11) to 1.81 (95% CI: 1.56–2.10) and from 1.14 (95% CI: 1.06–1.23) to 1.28 (95% CI: 1.21–1.36) at lag 1, respectively. The risk estimates gradually attenuated after the lag of one day for both case-crossover and time series analyses. Conclusions The risk estimates from both case-crossover and time series models were consistent and comparable. This finding may have implications for future research on the assessment of event- or episode-related (e.g., heatwave) health effects.

Environments For Healthy Living (EFHL) Griffith birth cohort study : characteristics of sample and profile of antenatal exposures

Background The Environments for Healthy Living (EFHL) study is a repeated sample, longitudinal birth cohort in South East Queensland, Australia. We describe the sample characteristics and profile of maternal, household, and antenatal exposures. Variation and data stability over recruitment years were examined. Methods Four months each year from 2006, pregnant women were recruited to EFHL at routine antenatal visits on or after 24 weeks gestation, from three public maternity hospitals. Participating mothers completed a baseline questionnaire on individual, familial, social and community exposure factors. Perinatal data were extracted from hospital birth records. Descriptive statistics and measures of association were calculated comparing the EFHL birth sample with regional and national reference populations. Data stability of antenatal exposure factors was assessed across five recruitment years (2006–2010 inclusive) using the Gamma statistic for ordinal data and chi-squared for nominal data. Results Across five recruitment years 2,879 pregnant women were recruited which resulted in 2904 live births with 29 sets of twins. EFHL has a lower representation of early gestational babies, fewer still births and a lower percentage of low birth weight babies, when compared to regional data. The majority of women (65%) took a multivitamin supplement during pregnancy, 47% consumed alcohol, and 26% reported having smoked cigarettes. There were no differences in rates of a range of antenatal exposures across five years of recruitment, with the exception of increasing maternal pre-pregnancy weight (p=0.0349), decreasing rates of high maternal distress (p=0.0191) and decreasing alcohol consumption (p<0.0001). Conclusions The study sample is broadly representative of births in the region and almost all factors showed data stability over time. This study, with repeated sampling of birth cohorts over multiple years, has the potential to make important contributions to population health through evaluating longitudinal follow-up and within cohort temporal effects.

Early time course of Akt phosphorylation after endurance and resistance exercise

Purpose The aim of this study was to determine the early time course of exercise-induced signaling after divergent contractile activity associated with resistance and endurance exercise. Methods Sixteen male subjects were randomly assigned to either a cycling (CYC; n = 8, 60 min, 70% V?O2peak) or resistance (REX; n = 8, 8×5 leg extension, 80% one-repetition maximum, 3-min recovery) exercise group. Serial muscle biopsies were obtained from vastus lateralis at rest before, immediately after, and after 15, 30, and 60 min of passive recovery to determine early signaling responses after exercise. Results There were comparable increases from rest in AktThr308/Ser473 and mTORSer2448 phosphorylation during the postexercise time course that peaked 30-60 min after both CYC and REX (P<0.05). There were also similar patterns in p70S6K Thr389 and 4E-BP1Thr37/46 phosphorylation, but a greater magnitude of effect was observed for REX and CYC, respectively (P<0.05). However, AMPKThr172 phosphorylation was only significantly elevated after CYC (P<0.05), and we observed divergent responses for glycogen synthaseSer641 and AS160 phosphorylation that were enhanced after CYC but not REX (P<0.05). Conclusions We show a similar time course for Akt-mTOR-S6K phosphorylation during the initial 60-min recovery period after divergent contractile stimuli. Conversely, enhanced phosphorylation status of proteins that promote glucose transport and glycogen synthesis only occurred after endurance exercise. Our results indicate that endurance and resistance exercise initiate translational signaling, but high-load, low-repetition contractile activity failed to promote phosphorylation of pathways regulating glucose metabolism.

Long-term survival after intensive care unit discharge in Thailand : a retrospective study

Introduction Economic evaluations of interventions in the hospital setting often rely on the estimated long-term impact on patient survival. Estimates of mortality rates and long-term outcomes among patients discharged alive from the intensive care unit (ICU) are lacking from lower- and middle-income countries. This study aimed to assess the long-term survival and life expectancy (LE) amongst post-ICU patients in Thailand, a middle-income country. Methods In this retrospective cohort study, data from a regional tertiary hospital in northeast Thailand and the regional death registry were linked and used to assess patient survival time after ICU discharge. Adult ICU patients aged at least 15 years who had been discharged alive from an ICU between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2005 were included in the study, and the death registry was used to determine deaths occurring in this cohort up to 31st December 2010. These data were used in conjunction with standard mortality life tables to estimate annual mortality and life expectancy. Results This analysis included 10,321 ICU patients. During ICU admission, 3,251 patients (31.5%) died. Of 7,070 patients discharged alive, 2,527 (35.7%) were known to have died within the five-year follow-up period, a mortality rate 2.5 times higher than that in the Thai general population (age and sex matched). The mean LE was estimated as 18.3 years compared with 25.2 years in the general population. Conclusions Post-ICU patients experienced much higher rates of mortality than members of the general population over the five-year follow-up period, particularly in the first year after discharge. Further work assessing Health Related Quality of Life (HRQOL) in both post-ICU patients and in the general population in developing countries is needed.

A study of localised galvanic replacement of copper and silver films with gold using scanning electrochemical microscopy

Galvanic replacement represents a highly significant process for the fabrication of bimetallic materials, but to date its application has been limited to either modification of large area metal surfaces or nanoparticles in solution. Here, the localised surface modification of copper and silver substrates with gold through the galvanic replacement process is reported. This was achieved by generation of a localised flux of AuCl4− ions from a gold ultramicroelectrode tip which interacts with the unbiased substrate of interest. The extent of modification with gold can be controlled through the tip–substrate distance and electrolysis time.

Study of the initial stage of solid electrolyte interphase formation upon chemical reaction of lithium metal and N-Methyl-N-Propyl-Pyrrolidinium-Bis (Fluorosulfonyl) Imide

Chemical reaction studies of N-methyl-N-propyl-pyrrolidinium-bis(fluorosulfonyl)imide-based ionic liquid with the lithium metal surface were performed using ab initio molecular dynamics (aMD) simulations and X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (XPS). The molecular dynamics simulations showed rapid and spontaneous decomposition of the ionic liquid anion, with subsequent formation of long-lived species such as lithium fluoride. The simulations also revealed the cation to retain its structure by generally moving away from the lithium surface. The XPS experiments showed evidence of decomposition of the anion, consistent with the aMD simulations and also of cation decomposition and it is envisaged that this is due to the longer time scale for the XPS experiment compared to the time scale of the aMD simulation. Overall experimental results confirm the majority of species suggested by the simulation. The rapid chemical decomposition of the ionic liquid was shown to form a solid electrolyte interphase composed of the breakdown products of the ionic liquid components in the absence of an applied voltage.

A combined scanning electron micrograph and electrochemical study of the effect of chemical interaction on the cyclability of lithium electrodes in an ionic liquid electrolyte

The effect of storage time on the cyclability of lithium electrodes in an ionic liquid electrolyte, namely 0.5 m LiBF4 in N-methyl-N-propyl pyrrolidinium bis(fluorosulfonyl)imide, [C3mpyr+][FSI–], was investigated. A chemical interaction was observed which is time dependent and results in a morphology change of the Li surface due to build up of passivation products over a 12-day period. The formation of this layer significantly impacts on the Li electrode resistance before cycling and the charging/discharging process for symmetrical Li|0.5 m LiBF4 in [C3mpyr+][FSI–]|Li coin cells. Indeed it was found that introducing a rest period between cycling, and thereby allowing the chemical interaction between the Li electrode and electrolyte to take place, also impacted on the charging/discharging process. For all Li surface treatments the electrode resistance decreased after cycling and was due to significant structural rearrangement of the surface layer. These results suggest that careful electrode pretreatment in a real battery system will be required before operation.

Encouraging, assisting, and time to eat : comparison of mealtime assistance interventions in elderly medical inpatients

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of protein-energy malnutrition in older adults is reported to be as high as 60% and is associated with poor health outcomes. Inadequate feeding assistance and mealtime interruptions may contribute to malnutrition and poor nutritional intake during hospitalisation. Despite being widely implemented in practice in the United Kingdom and increasingly in Australia, there have been few studies examining the impact of strategies such as Protected Mealtimes and dedicated feeding assistant roles on nutritional outcomes of elderly inpatients. AIMS: The aim of this research was to implement and compare three system-level interventions designed to specifically address mealtime barriers and improve energy intakes of medical inpatients aged ≥65 years. This research also aimed to evaluate the sustainability of any changes to mealtime routines six months post-intervention and to gain an understanding of staff perceptions of the post-intervention mealtime experience. METHODS: Three mealtime assistance interventions were implemented in three medical wards at Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital: AIN-only: Additional assistant-in-nursing (AIN) with dedicated nutrition role. PM-only: Multidisciplinary approach to meals, including Protected Mealtimes. PM+AIN: Combined intervention: AIN + multidisciplinary approach to meals. An action research approach was used to carefully design and implement the three interventions in partnership with ward staff and managers. Significant time was spent in consultation with staff throughout the implementation period to facilitate ownership of the interventions and increase likelihood of successful implementation. A pre-post design was used to compare the implementation and nutritional outcomes of each intervention to a pre-intervention group. Using the same wards, eligible participants (medical inpatients aged ≥65 years) were recruited to the preintervention group between November 2007 and March 2008 and to the intervention groups between January and June 2009. The primary nutritional outcome was daily energy and protein intake, which was determined by visually estimating plate waste at each meal and mid-meal on Day 4 of admission. Energy and protein intakes were compared between the pre and post intervention groups. Data were collected on a range of covariates (demographics, nutritional status and known risk factors for poor food intake), which allowed for multivariate analysis of the impact of the interventions on nutritional intake. The provision of mealtime assistance to participants and activities of ward staff (including mealtime interruptions) were observed in the pre-intervention and intervention groups, with staff observations repeated six months post-intervention. Focus groups were conducted with nursing and allied health staff in June 2009 to explore their attitudes and behaviours in response to the three mealtime interventions. These focus group discussions were analysed using thematic analysis. RESULTS: A total of 254 participants were recruited to the study (pre-intervention: n=115, AIN-only: n=58, PM-only: n=39, PM+AIN: n=42). Participants had a mean age of 80 years (SD 8), and 40% (n=101) were malnourished on hospital admission, 50% (n=108) had anorexia and 38% (n=97) required some assistance at mealtimes. Occasions of mealtime assistance significantly increased in all interventions (p<0.01). However, no change was seen in mealtime interruptions. No significant difference was seen in mean total energy and protein intake between the preintervention and intervention groups. However, when total kilojoule intake was compared with estimated requirements at the individual level, participants in the intervention groups were more likely to achieve adequate energy intake (OR=3.4, p=0.01), with no difference noted between interventions (p=0.29). Despite small improvements in nutritional adequacy, the majority of participants in the intervention groups (76%, n=103) had inadequate energy intakes to meet their estimated energy requirements. Patients with cognitive impairment or feeding dependency appeared to gain substantial benefit from mealtime assistance interventions. The increase in occasions of mealtime assistance by nursing staff during the intervention period was maintained six-months post-intervention. Staff focus groups highlighted the importance of clearly designating and defining mealtime responsibilities in order to provide adequate mealtime care. While the purpose of the dedicated feeding assistant was to increase levels of mealtime assistance, staff indicated that responsibility for mealtime duties may have merely shifted from nursing staff to the assistant. Implementing the multidisciplinary interventions empowered nursing staff to "protect" the mealtime from external interruptions, but further work is required to empower nurses to prioritise mealtime activities within their own work schedules. Staff reported an increase in the profile of nutritional care on all wards, with additional non-nutritional benefits noted including improved mobility and functional independence, and better identification of swallowing difficulties. IMPLICATIONS: The PhD research provides clinicians with practical strategies to immediately introduce change to deliver better mealtime care in the hospital setting, and, as such, has initiated local and state-wide roll-out of mealtime assistance programs. Improved nutritional intakes of elderly inpatients was observed; however given the modest effect size and reducing lengths of hospital stays, better nutritional outcomes may be achieved by targeting the hospital-to-home transition period. Findings from this study suggest that mealtime assistance interventions for elderly inpatients with cognitive impairment and/or functional dependency show promise.

The effect of consumer education on unit price usage : an early exploratory study

Consumer awareness and usage of Unit Price (UP) information continues to hold academic interest. Originally designed as a device to enable shoppers to make comparisons between grocery products, it is argued consumers still lack a sufficient understanding of the device. Previous research has tended to focus on product choice, effect of time, and structural changes to price presentation. No studies have tested the effect of UP consumer education on grocery shopping expenditure. Supported by distributed learning theories, this is the first study to condition participants over a twenty week period, to comprehend and employ UP information while shopping. A 3x5 mixed factorial design was employed to collect data from 357 shoppers. A 3 (Control, Massed, Spaced) x 5 (Time Point: Week 0, 5, 10, 15 and 20) mixed factorial analysis of variance (ANOVA) was performed to analyse the data. Preliminary results revealed that the three groups differed in their average expenditure over the twenty weeks. The Control group remained stable across the five time points. Results indicated that both intensive (Massed) and less intensive (Spaced) exposure to UP information achieved similar results, with both group reducing average expenditure similarly by Week 5. These patterns held for twenty weeks, with conditioned groups reducing their grocery expenditure by over 10%. This research has academic value as a test of applied learning theories. We argue, retailers can attain considerable market advantages as efforts to enhance customers’ knowledge, through consumer education campaigns, can have a positive and strong impact on customer trust and goodwill toward the organisation. Hence, major practical implications for both regulators and retailers exist.

Antibiotics for bronchiectasis exacerbations in children: rationale and study protocol for a randomised placebo-controlled trial

Background Despite bronchiectasis being increasingly recognised as an important cause of chronic respiratory morbidity in both indigenous and non-indigenous settings globally, high quality evidence to inform management is scarce. It is assumed that antibiotics are efficacious for all bronchiectasis exacerbations, but not all practitioners agree. Inadequately treated exacerbations may risk lung function deterioration. Our study tests the hypothesis that both oral azithromycin and amoxicillin-clavulanic acid are superior to placebo at improving resolution rates of respiratory exacerbations by day 14 in children with bronchiectasis unrelated to cystic fibrosis. Methods We are conducting a bronchiectasis exacerbation study (BEST), which is a multicentre, randomised, double-blind, double-dummy, placebo-controlled, parallel group trial, in five centres (Brisbane, Perth, Darwin, Melbourne, Auckland). In the component of BEST presented here, 189 children fulfilling inclusion criteria are randomised (allocation-concealed) to receive amoxicillin-clavulanic acid (22.5 mg/kg twice daily) with placebo-azithromycin; azithromycin (5 mg/kg daily) with placebo-amoxicillin-clavulanic acid; or placebo-azithromycin with placebo-amoxicillin-clavulanic acid for 14 days. Clinical data and a paediatric cough-specific quality of life score are obtained at baseline, at the start and resolution of exacerbations, and at day 14. In most children, blood and deep nasal swabs are also collected at the same time points. The primary outcome is the proportion of children whose exacerbations have resolved at day 14. The main secondary outcome is the paediatric cough-specific quality of life score. Other outcomes are time to next exacerbation; requirement for hospitalisation; duration of exacerbation; and spirometry data. Descriptive viral and bacteriological data from nasal samples and blood markers will also be reported. Discussion Effective, evidence-based management of exacerbations in people with bronchiectasis is clinically important. Yet, there are few randomised controlled trials (RCTs) in the neglected area of non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis. Indeed, no published RCTs addressing the treatment of bronchiectasis exacerbations in children exist. Our multicentre, double-blind RCT is designed to determine if azithromycin and amoxicillin-clavulanic acid, compared with placebo, improve symptom resolution on day 14 in children with acute respiratory exacerbations. Our planned assessment of the predictors of antibiotic response, the role of antibiotic-resistant respiratory pathogens, and whether early treatment with antibiotics affects duration and time to the next exacerbation, are also all novel.

Bronchiectasis exacerbation study on azithromycin and amoxycillin-clavulanate for respiratory exacerbations in children (BEST-2) : study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Background Bronchiectasis unrelated to cystic fibrosis (CF) is being increasingly recognized in children and adults globally, both in resource-poor and in affluent countries. However, high-quality evidence to inform management is scarce. Oral amoxycillin-clavulanate is often the first antibiotic chosen for non-severe respiratory exacerbations, because of the antibiotic-susceptibility patterns detected in the respiratory pathogens commonly associated with bronchiectasis. Azithromycin has a prolonged half-life, and with its unique anti-bacterial, immunomodulatory, and anti-inflammatory properties, presents an attractive alternative. Our proposed study will test the hypothesis that oral azithromycin is non-inferior (within a 20% margin) to amoxycillin-clavulanate at achieving resolution of non-severe respiratory exacerbations by day 21 of treatment in children with non-CF bronchiectasis. Methods This will be a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, double-dummy, placebo-controlled, parallel group trial involving six Australian and New Zealand centers. In total, 170 eligible children will be stratified by site and bronchiectasis etiology, and randomized (allocation concealed) to receive: 1) azithromycin (5 mg/kg daily) with placebo amoxycillin-clavulanate or 2) amoxycillin-clavulanate (22.5 mg/kg twice daily) with placebo azithromycin for 21 days as treatment for non-severe respiratory exacerbations. Clinical data and a parent-proxy cough-specific quality of life (PC-QOL) score will be obtained at baseline, at the start and resolution of exacerbations, and on day 21. In most children, blood and deep-nasal swabs will also be collected at the same time points. The primary outcome is the proportion of children whose exacerbations have resolved at day 21. The main secondary outcome is the PC-QOL score. Other outcomes are: time to next exacerbation; requirement for hospitalization; duration of exacerbation, and spirometry data. Descriptive viral and bacteriological data from nasal samples and blood inflammatory markers will be reported where available. Discussion Currently, there are no published randomized controlled trials (RCT) to underpin effective, evidence-based management of acute respiratory exacerbations in children with non-CF bronchiectasis. To help address this information gap, we are conducting two RCTs. The first (bronchiectasis exacerbation study; BEST-1) evaluates the efficacy of azithromycin and amoxycillin-clavulanate compared with placebo, and the second RCT (BEST-2), described here, is designed to determine if azithromycin is non-inferior to amoxycillin-clavulanate in achieving symptom resolution by day 21 of treatment in children with acute respiratory exacerbations. Trial registration Australia and New Zealand Clinical Trials Register (ANZCTR) number ACTRN12612000010897. http://www.anzctr.org.au/trial_view.aspx?id=347879

The development of chronic cough in children following presentation to a tertiary paediatric emergency department with acute respiratory illness : study protocol for a prospective cohort study

Background Acute respiratory illness, a leading cause of cough in children, accounts for a substantial proportion of childhood morbidity and mortality worldwide. In some children acute cough progresses to chronic cough (> 4 weeks duration), impacting on morbidity and decreasing quality of life. Despite the importance of chronic cough as a cause of substantial childhood morbidity and associated economic, family and social costs, data on the prevalence, predictors, aetiology and natural history of the symptom are scarce. This study aims to comprehensively describe the epidemiology, aetiology and outcomes of cough during and after acute respiratory illness in children presenting to a tertiary paediatric emergency department. Methods/design A prospective cohort study of children aged <15 years attending the Royal Children's Hospital Emergency Department, Brisbane, for a respiratory illness that includes parent reported cough (wet or dry) as a symptom. The primary objective is to determine the prevalence and predictors of chronic cough (>= 4 weeks duration) post presentation with acute respiratory illness. Demographic, epidemiological, risk factor, microbiological and clinical data are completed at enrolment. Subjects complete daily cough dairies and weekly follow-up contacts for 28(+/-3) days to ascertain cough persistence. Children who continue to cough for 28 days post enrolment are referred to a paediatric respiratory physician for review. Primary analysis will be the proportion of children with persistent cough at day 28(+/-3). Multivariate analyses will be performed to evaluate variables independently associated with chronic cough at day 28(+/-3). Discussion Our protocol will be the first to comprehensively describe the natural history, epidemiology, aetiology and outcomes of cough during and after acute respiratory illness in children. The results will contribute to studies leading to the development of evidence-based clinical guidelines to improve the early detection and management of chronic cough in children during and after acute respiratory illness.

Respiratory illness during winter : a cohort study of urban children from temperate Australia

Objective: To examine the epidemiology and burden of respiratory illness during winter in urban children from temperate Australia. Methods: We conducted a cohort study of healthy Melbourne children, aged from 12 to 71 months. Parents kept a daily respiratory symptom diary and recorded resource use when an influenza-like illness (ILI) occurred. Results: One-hundred and eighteen children had 137 ILI episodes over 12 weeks for a rate of 0.53 ILI episodes per child-month (95% CI 0.44-0.61). Risk factors for ILI included younger age, fewer people residing in the household, structured exposure to other children outside the home, and a higher household income. Episodes had a mean duration of 10.4 days with 64 visits to a general practitioner (46.7 GP visits per 100 episodes), 27 antibiotic courses prescribed (19.7 antibiotic courses per 100 episodes), and three overnight hospitalizations (2.2 admissions per 100 episodes). Parents reported an average of 11.7 h excess time spent caring for a child per episode. Conclusions: Respiratory illnesses are a common and largely neglected cause of illness in Australian children. Pathogen-specific data are required to better assess the likely impact of available and developing vaccines and other treatment options.

Immunisation coverage in Australian Indigenous children : time to move the goal posts

Childhood immunisation coverage reported at 12 to <15 months and 2 years of age, may mask deficiencies in the timeliness of vaccines designed to protect against diseases in infancy. This study aimed to evaluate immunisation timeliness in Indigenous infants in the Northern Territory, Australia. Coverage was analysed at the date children turned 7, 13 and 18 months of age. By 7 months of age, 45.2% of children had completed the recommended schedule, increasing to 49.5% and 81.2% at 13 and 18 months of age, respectively. Immunisation performance benchmarks must focus on improving the timeliness in these children in the first year of life.