Estimating the burden of disease attributable to four selected environmental risk factors in South Africa

INTRODUCTION: The first South African National Burden of Disease study quantified the underlying causes of premature mortality and morbidity experienced in South Africa in the year 2000. This was followed by a Comparative Risk Assessment to estimate the contributions of 17 selected risk factors to burden of disease in South Africa. This paper describes the health impact of exposure to four selected environmental risk factors: unsafe water, sanitation and hygiene; indoor air pollution from household use of solid fuels; urban outdoor air pollution and lead exposure. METHODS: The study followed World Health Organization comparative risk assessment methodology. Population-attributable fractions were calculated and applied to revised burden of disease estimates (deaths and disability adjusted life years, [DALYs]) from the South African Burden of Disease study to obtain the attributable burden for each selected risk factor. The burden attributable to the joint effect of the four environmental risk factors was also estimated taking into account competing risks and common pathways. Monte Carlo simulation-modeling techniques were used to quantify sampling, uncertainty. RESULTS: Almost 24 000 deaths were attributable to the joint effect of these four environmental risk factors, accounting for 4.6% (95% uncertainty interval 3.8-5.3%) of all deaths in South Africa in 2000. Overall the burden due to these environmental risks was equivalent to 3.7% (95% uncertainty interval 3.4-4.0%) of the total disease burden for South Africa, with unsafe water sanitation and hygiene the main contributor to joint burden. The joint attributable burden was especially high in children under 5 years of age, accounting for 10.8% of total deaths in this age group and 9.7% of burden of disease. CONCLUSION: This study highlights the public health impact of exposure to environmental risks and the significant burden of preventable disease attributable to exposure to these four major environmental risk factors in South Africa. Evidence-based policies and programs must be developed and implemented to address these risk factors at individual, household, and community levels.

Latent class analysis reveals distinct subgroups of patients based on symptom occurrence and demographic and clinical characteristics

Context Cancer patients experience a broad range of physical and psychological symptoms as a result of their disease and its treatment. On average, these patients report ten unrelieved and co-occurring symptoms. Objectives To determine if subgroups of oncology outpatients receiving active treatment (n=582) could be identified based on their distinct experience with thirteen commonly occurring symptoms; to determine whether these subgroups differed on select demographic, and clinical characteristics; and to determine if these subgroups differed on quality of life (QOL) outcomes. Methods Demographic, clinical, and symptom data from one Australian and two U.S. studies were combined. Latent class analysis (LCA) was used to identify patient subgroups with distinct symptom experiences based on self-report data on symptom occurrence using the Memorial Symptom Assessment Scale (MSAS). Results Four distinct latent classes were identified (i.e., All Low (28.0%), Moderate Physical and Lower Psych (26.3%), Moderate Physical and Higher Psych (25.4%), All High (20.3%)). Age, gender, education, cancer diagnosis, and presence of metastatic disease differentiated among the latent classes. Patients in the All High class had the worst QOL scores. Conclusion Findings from this study confirm the large amount of interindividual variability in the symptom experience of oncology patients. The identification of demographic and clinical characteristics that place patients are risk for a higher symptom burden can be used to guide more aggressive and individualized symptom management interventions.

Speaking too soon : the sabotage of bail reform in New South Wales

Within just over one month of coming into operation in May 2014, the new Bail Act 2013 (NSW), a product of long-term law reform consideration, was reviewed and then amended after talk-back radio ‘shock jock’ and tabloid newspaper outcry over three cases. This article examines the media triggers, the main arguments of the review conducted by former New South Wales (NSW) Attorney General John Hatzistergos, and the amendments, with our analysis of the judicial interpretation of the Act thus far providing relevant background. We argue that the amendments are premature, unnecessary, create complexity and confusion, and, quite possibly, will have unintended consequences: in short, they are a mess. The whole process of reversal is an example of law and order politics driven by the shock jocks and tabloid media, the views of which, are based on fundamental misconceptions of the purpose of bail and its place in the criminal process, resulting in a conflation of accusation, guilt and punishment. Other consequences of the review and amendments process recognised in this article include the denigration of judicial expertise and lack of concern with evidence and process; the disproportionate influence of the shock jocks, tabloids and Police Association of NSW on policy formation; the practice of using retired politicians to produce ‘quick fix’ reviews; and the political failure to understand and defend fundamental legal principles that benefit us all and are central to the maintenance of a democratic society and the rule of law. The article concludes with some discussion of ways in which media and political debate might be conducted to produce more balanced outcomes.

Analysing governance of Australia's system of landscape-based greenhouse gas abatement

Healthy governance systems are key to delivering effective outcomes in any broad domain of natural resource management (NRM). One of Australia's emerging NRM governance domains is our national framework for greenhouse gas abatement (GGA), as delivered through a wide range of management practices in the Australian landscape. The emerging Landscape-Based GGA Domain represents an innovative governance space that straddles both the nation's broader NRM Policy and Delivery Domain and Australia's GGA Domain. As a point-in-time benchmark, we assess the health of this hybrid domain as it stood at the end of 2013. At that time, the domain was being progressed through the Australian government's Clean Energy Package and, more particularly, its Carbon Farming Initiative (CFI). While significant changes are currently under development by a new Australian government, this paper explores key areas of risk within the governance system underpinning this emerging hybrid domain at that point in time. We then map some potential reform or continuous improvement pathways required (from national to paddock scale) with the view to securing improved landscape outcomes over time through widespread GGA activities.

Risk factors for delayed healing in venous leg ulcers : a review of the literature

Background Chronic leg ulcers, remaining unhealed after 4–6 weeks, affect 1-3% of the population, with treatment costly and health service resource intensive. Venous disease contributes to approximately 70% of all chronic leg ulcers and these ulcers are often associated with pain, reduced mobility and a decreased quality of life. Despite evidence-based care, 30% of these ulcers are unlikely to heal within a 24-week period and therefore the recognition and identification of risk factors for delayed healing of venous leg ulcers would be beneficial. Aim To review the available evidence on risk factors for delayed healing of venous leg ulcers. Methods: A review of the literature in regard to risk factors for delayed healing in venous leg ulcers was conducted from January 2000 to December 2013. Evidence was sourced through searches of relevant databases and websites for resources addressing risk factors for delayed healing in venous leg ulcers specifically. Results Twenty-seven studies, of mostly low-level evidence (Level III and IV), identified risk factors associated with delayed healing. Risk factors that were consistently identified included: larger ulcer area, longer ulcer duration, a previous history of ulceration, venous abnormalities and lack of high compression. Additional potential predictors with inconsistent or varying evidence to support their influence on delayed healing of venous leg ulcers included decreased mobility and/or ankle range of movement, poor nutrition and increased age. Discussion Findings from this review indicate that a number of physiological risk factors are asso- ciated with delayed healing in venous leg ulcers and that social and/or psychological risk factors should also be considered and examined further. Conclusion The findings from this review can assist health professionals to identify prognostic indicators or risk factors significantly associated with delayed healing in venous leg ulcers. This will facilitate realistic outcome planning and inform implementation of appropriate early strategies to promote healing.

Out-of-pocket expenditures for hospital care in Iran : who is at risk of incurring catastrophic payments?

Since the beginning of 1980s, the Iranian health care system has undergone several reforms designed to increase accessibility of health services. Notwithstanding these reforms, out-of-pocket payments which create a barrier to access health services contribute almost half of total health are financing in Iran. This study aimed to provide a greater understanding about the inequality and determinants of the out-of-pocket expenditure (OOPE) and the related catastrophic expenditure (CE) for hospital services in Iran using a nationwide survey data, the 2003 Utilisation of Health Services Survey (UHSS). The concentration index and the Heckman selection model were used to assess inequality and factors associated with these expenditures. Inequality analysis suggests that the CE is concentrated among households in lower socioeconomic levels. The results of the Heckman selection model indicate that factors such as length of stay, admission to a hospital owned by private sector or Ministry of Health and Medical Education, and living in remote areas are positively associated with higher OOPE. Results of the ordered-probit selection model demonstrate that length of stay, lower household wealth index, and admission to a private hospital are major factors contributing to the increase in the probability of CE. Also, we find that households living in East Azarbaijan, Kordestan and Sistan and Balochestan face a higher level of CE. Based on our findings, the current employer-sponsored health insurance system does not offer equal protection against hospital expenditure in Iran. It seems that a single universal health insurance scheme that covers health services for all Iranian—regardless of their employment status—can better protect households from catastrophic health spending.

Identifying risk factors and protective factors for venous leg ulcer recurrence using a theoretical approach : a longitudinal study

Background The high recurrence rate of chronic venous leg ulcers has a significant impact on an individual’s quality of life and healthcare costs. Objectives This study aimed to identify risk and protective factors for recurrence of venous leg ulcers using a theoretical approach by applying a framework of self and family management of chronic conditions to underpin the study. Design Secondary analysis of combined data collected from three previous prospective longitudinal studies. Setting The contributing studies’ participants were recruited from two metropolitan hospital outpatient wound clinics and three community-based wound clinics. Participants Data were available on a sample of 250 adults, with a leg ulcer of primarily venous aetiology, who were followed after ulcer healing for a median follow-up time of 17 months after healing (range: 3 to 36 months). Methods Data from the three studies were combined. The original participant data were collected through medical records and self-reported questionnaires upon healing and every 3 months thereafter. A Cox proportion-hazards regression analysis was undertaken to determine the influential factors on leg ulcer recurrence based on the proposed conceptual framework. Results The median time to recurrence was 42 weeks (95% CI 31.9–52.0), with an incidence of 22% (54 of 250 participants) recurrence within three months of healing, 39% (91 of 235 participants) for those who were followed for six months, 57% (111 of 193) by 12 months, 73% (53 of 72) by two years and 78% (41 of 52) of those who were followed up for three years. A Cox proportional-hazards regression model revealed that the risk factors for recurrence included a history of deep vein thrombosis (HR 1.7, 95% CI 1.07–2.67, p=0.024), history of multiple previous leg ulcers (HR 4.4, 95% CI 1.84–10.5, p=0.001), and longer duration (in weeks) of previous ulcer (HR 1.01, 95% CI 1.003–1.01, p<0.001); while the protective factors were elevating legs for at least 30 minutes per day (HR 0.33, 95% CI 0.19–0.56, p<0.001), higher levels of self-efficacy (HR 0.95, 95% CI 0.92–0.99, p=0.016), and walking around for at least three hours/day (HR 0.66, 95% CI 0.44–0.98, p=0.040). Conclusions Results from this study provide a comprehensive examination of risk and protective factors associated with leg ulcer recurrence based on the chronic disease self and family management framework. These results in turn provide essential steps towards developing and testing interventions to promote optimal prevention strategies for venous leg ulcer recurrence.

Extinction risk analysis of exploited green turtle stocks in the Indo-Pacific

In parts of the Indo-Pacific, large-scale exploitation of the green turtle Chelonia mydas continues to pose a serious threat to the persistence of this species; yet very few studies have assessed the pattern and extent of the impact of such harvests. We used demographic and genetic data in an age-based model to investigate the viability of an exploited green turtle stock from Aru, south-east Indonesia. We found that populations are decreasing under current exploitation pressures. The effects of increasingly severe exploitation activities at foraging and nesting habitat varied depending on the migratory patterns of the stock. Our model predicted a rapid decline of the Aru stock in Indonesia under local exploitation pressure and a shift in the genetic composition of the stock. We used the model to investigate the influence of different types of conservation actions on the persistence of the Aru stock. The results show that local management actions such as nest protection and reducing harvests of adult nesting and foraging turtles can have considerable conservation outcomes and result in the long-term persistence of genetically distinct management units. © 2010 The Authors. Animal Conservation © 2010 The Zoological Society of London.

Dual compressible hybrid quantum secret sharing schemes based on extended unitary operations

A crucial issue with hybrid quantum secret sharing schemes is the amount of data that is allocated to the participants. The smaller the amount of allocated data, the better the performance of a scheme. Moreover, quantum data is very hard and expensive to deal with, therefore, it is desirable to use as little quantum data as possible. To achieve this goal, we first construct extended unitary operations by the tensor product of n, n ≥ 2, basic unitary operations, and then by using those extended operations, we design two quantum secret sharing schemes. The resulting dual compressible hybrid quantum secret sharing schemes, in which classical data play a complementary role to quantum data, range from threshold to access structure. Compared with the existing hybrid quantum secret sharing schemes, our proposed schemes not only reduce the number of quantum participants, but also the number of particles and the size of classical shares. To be exact, the number of particles that are used to carry quantum data is reduced to 1 while the size of classical secret shares also is also reduced to l−2 m−1 based on ((m+1, n′)) threshold and to l−2 r2 (where r2 is the number of maximal unqualified sets) based on adversary structure. Consequently, our proposed schemes can greatly reduce the cost and difficulty of generating and storing EPR pairs and lower the risk of transmitting encoded particles.

Considerations for a social and geographical framework for agent-based epidemics

Understanding the dynamics of disease spread is of crucial importance, in contexts such as estimating load on medical services to risk assessment and intervention policies against large-scale epidemic outbreaks. However, most of the information is available after the spread itself, and preemptive assessment is far from trivial. Here, we investigate the use of agent-based simulations to model such outbreaks in a stylised urban environment. For most diseases, infection of a new individual may occur from casual contact in crowds as well as from repeated interactions with social partners such as work colleagues or family members. Our model therefore accounts for these two phenomena.Presented in this paper is the initial framework for such a model, detailing implementation of geographical features and generation of social structures. Preliminary results are a promising step towards large-scale simulations and evaluation of potential intervention policies.

A parallel approach to social network generation and agent-based epidemic simulation

Understanding the dynamics of disease spread is essential in contexts such as estimating load on medical services, as well as risk assessment and interven- tion policies against large-scale epidemic outbreaks. However, most of the information is available after the outbreak itself, and preemptive assessment is far from trivial. Here, we report on an agent-based model developed to investigate such epidemic events in a stylised urban environment. For most diseases, infection of a new individual may occur from casual contact in crowds as well as from repeated interactions with social partners such as work colleagues or family members. Our model therefore accounts for these two phenomena. Given the scale of the system, efficient parallel computing is required. In this presentation, we focus on aspects related to paralllelisation for large networks generation and massively multi-agent simulations.

Family-based programmes for preventing smoking by children and adolescents (Review)

Background There is evidence that family and friends influence children's decisions to smoke. Objectives To assess the effectiveness of interventions to help families stop children starting smoking. Search methods We searched 14 electronic bibliographic databases, including the Cochrane Tobacco Addiction Group specialized register, MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, CINAHL unpublished material, and key articles' reference lists. We performed free-text internet searches and targeted searches of appropriate websites, and hand-searched key journals not available electronically. We consulted authors and experts in the field. The most recent search was 3 April 2014. There were no date or language limitations. Selection criteria Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of interventions with children (aged 5-12) or adolescents (aged 13-18) and families to deter tobacco use. The primary outcome was the effect of the intervention on the smoking status of children who reported no use of tobacco at baseline. Included trials had to report outcomes measured at least six months from the start of the intervention. Data collection and analysis We reviewed all potentially relevant citations and retrieved the full text to determine whether the study was an RCT and matched our inclusion criteria. Two authors independently extracted study data for each RCT and assessed them for risk of bias. We pooled risk ratios using a Mantel-Haenszel fixed effect model. Main results Twenty-seven RCTs were included. The interventions were very heterogeneous in the components of the family intervention, the other risk behaviours targeted alongside tobacco, the age of children at baseline and the length of follow-up. Two interventions were tested by two RCTs, one was tested by three RCTs and the remaining 20 distinct interventions were tested only by one RCT. Twenty-three interventions were tested in the USA, two in Europe, one in Australia and one in India. The control conditions fell into two main groups: no intervention or usual care; or school-based interventions provided to all participants. These two groups of studies were considered separately. Most studies had a judgement of 'unclear' for at least one risk of bias criteria, so the quality of evidence was downgraded to moderate. Although there was heterogeneity between studies there was little evidence of statistical heterogeneity in the results. We were unable to extract data from all studies in a format that allowed inclusion in a meta-analysis. There was moderate quality evidence family-based interventions had a positive impact on preventing smoking when compared to a no intervention control. Nine studies (4810 participants) reporting smoking uptake amongst baseline non-smokers could be pooled, but eight studies with about 5000 participants could not be pooled because of insufficient data. The pooled estimate detected a significant reduction in smoking behaviour in the intervention arms (risk ratio [RR] 0.76, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.68 to 0.84). Most of these studies used intensive interventions. Estimates for the medium and low intensity subgroups were similar but confidence intervals were wide. Two studies in which some of the 4487 participants already had smoking experience at baseline did not detect evidence of effect (RR 1.04, 95% CI 0.93 to 1.17). Eight RCTs compared a combined family plus school intervention to a school intervention only. Of the three studies with data, two RCTS with outcomes for 2301 baseline never smokers detected evidence of an effect (RR 0.85, 95% CI 0.75 to 0.96) and one study with data for 1096 participants not restricted to never users at baseline also detected a benefit (RR 0.60, 95% CI 0.38 to 0.94). The other five studies with about 18,500 participants did not report data in a format allowing meta-analysis. One RCT also compared a family intervention to a school 'good behaviour' intervention and did not detect a difference between the two types of programme (RR 1.05, 95% CI 0.80 to 1.38, n = 388). No studies identified any adverse effects of intervention. Authors' conclusions There is moderate quality evidence to suggest that family-based interventions can have a positive effect on preventing children and adolescents from starting to smoke. There were more studies of high intensity programmes compared to a control group receiving no intervention, than there were for other compairsons. The evidence is therefore strongest for high intensity programmes used independently of school interventions. Programmes typically addressed family functioning, and were introduced when children were between 11 and 14 years old. Based on this moderate quality evidence a family intervention might reduce uptake or experimentation with smoking by between 16 and 32%. However, these findings should be interpreted cautiously because effect estimates could not include data from all studies. Our interpretation is that the common feature of the effective high intensity interventions was encouraging authoritative parenting (which is usually defined as showing strong interest in and care for the adolescent, often with rule setting). This is different from authoritarian parenting (do as I say) or neglectful or unsupervised parenting.

The protective mechanisms of first aid training within a school-based program for early adolescents

This thesis was concerned with the protective mechanisms of first aid training in the context of peer support. Using a randomised control trial design the current program of research explores first aid training in the school setting and identifies the key components of effective school-based first aid training programs. In particular, examining whether first aid training and associated knowledge could be protective for early adolescents. This broader framing considered whether first aid impacted on increasing behaviour and attitudes towards helping an injured friend, and reducing personal risk taking and related injury.