Bounded rationality and voting decisions over 160 years : voter behavior and increasing complexity in decision-making

Using a quasi-natural voting experiment encompassing a 160-year period (1848–2009) in Switzerland, we investigate whether a higher level of complexity leads to increased reliance on trusted parliamentary representatives. We find that when more referenda are held on the same day, constituents are more likely to refer to parliamentary recommendations when making their decisions. This finding holds true even when we narrow our focus to referenda with a relatively lower voter turnout on days on which more than one referendum is held. We also demonstrate that when constituents face a higher level of complexity, they follow the parliamentary recommendations rather than those of interest groups. "Viewed as a geometric figure, the ant’s path is irregular, complex, hard to describe. But its complexity is really a complexity in the surface of the beach, not a complexity in the ant." ([1] p. 51)

Changes in the site distribution of common melanoma subtypes in Queensland, Australia over time: implications for public health campaigns

Abstract BACKGROUND: An examination of melanoma incidence according to anatomical region may be one method of monitoring the impact of public health initiatives. OBJECTIVES:   To examine melanoma incidence trends by body site, sex and age at diagnosis or body site and morphology in a population at high risk. MATERIALS AND METHODS:   Population-based data on invasive melanoma cases (n = 51473) diagnosed between 1982 and 2008 were extracted from the Queensland Cancer Registry. Age-standardized incidence rates were calculated using the direct method (2000 world standard population) and joinpoint regression models were used to fit trend lines. RESULTS:   Significantly decreasing trends for melanomas on the trunk and upper limbs/shoulders were observed during recent years for both sexes under the age of 40 years and among males aged 40-59years. However, in the 60 and over age group, the incidence of melanoma is continuing to increase at all sites (apart from the trunk) for males and on the scalp/neck and upper limbs/shoulders for females. Rates of nodular melanoma are currently decreasing on the trunk and lower limbs. In contrast, superficial spreading melanoma is significantly increasing on the scalp/neck and lower limbs, along with substantial increases in lentigo maligna melanoma since the late 1990s at all sites apart from the lower limbs. CONCLUSIONS:   In this large study we have observed significant decreases in rates of invasive melanoma in the younger age groups on less frequently exposed body sites. These results may provide some indirect evidence of the impact of long-running primary prevention campaigns.

12 principles for the effective supervision of creative practice higher research degrees, dispatches from the field

In late 2012 and early 2013 we interviewed 25 experienced and early career supervisors of creative practice higher research degrees. This journey spanned five universities and a broad range of disciplines including visual art, music, performing art, new media, creative writing, fashion, graphic design, interaction design and interior design. Some of the supervisors we interviewed were amongst the first to complete and supervise practice-led and practice-based PhDs; some have advocated for and defined this emergent field; and some belong to the next generation of supervisors who have confidently embarked on this exciting and challenging path. Their reflections have brought to light many insights gained over the past decade. Here we have drawn together common themes into a collection of principles and best practice examples. We present them as advice rather than rules, as one thing that the supervisors were unanimous about is the need to avoid proscriptive models and frameworks, and to foster creativity and innovation in what is still an emergent field of postgraduate supervision. It is with thanks to all of the supervisors who contributed to these conversations, and their generosity in sharing their practices, that we present their advice, exemplars and case studies.

Suicide and the therapeutic coroner : inquests, governance and the grieving family

This study of English Coronial practice raises a number of questions about the role played by the Coroner within contemporary governance. Following observations at over 20 inquests into possible suicides and in-depth interviews with six Coroners, three preliminary issue emerged, all of which pointed to a broader and, in many ways, more significant issue. These preliminary issues are concerned with: (1) the existence of considerable slippages between different Coroners over which deaths are likely to be classified as suicide; (2) the high standard of proof required and immense pressure faced by Coroners from family members at inquest to reach any verdict other than suicide, which significantly depresses likely suicide rates, and; (3) Coroners feeling no professional obligation, either individually or collectively, to contribute to the production of consistent and useful social data regarding suicide, arguably rendering comparative suicide statistics relatively worthless. These concerns lead, ultimately, to the second more important question about the role expected of Coroners within social governance and within an effective, contemporary democracy. That is, are Coroners the principal officers in the public administration of death; or are they, first and foremost, a crucial part of the grieving process, one that provides important therapeutic interventions into the mental and emotional health of the community?

Slicing big data - Twitter, gambling and time sensitive information

Big Data presents many challenges related to volume, whether one is interested in studying past datasets or, even more problematically, attempting to work with live streams of data. The most obvious challenge, in a ‘noisy’ environment such as contemporary social media, is to collect the pertinent information; be that information for a specific study, tweets which can inform emergency services or other responders to an ongoing crisis, or give an advantage to those involved in prediction markets. Often, such a process is iterative, with keywords and hashtags changing with the passage of time, and both collection and analytic methodologies need to be continually adapted to respond to this changing information. While many of the data sets collected and analyzed are preformed, that is they are built around a particular keyword, hashtag, or set of authors, they still contain a large volume of information, much of which is unnecessary for the current purpose and/or potentially useful for future projects. Accordingly, this panel considers methods for separating and combining data to optimize big data research and report findings to stakeholders. The first paper considers possible coding mechanisms for incoming tweets during a crisis, taking a large stream of incoming tweets and selecting which of those need to be immediately placed in front of responders, for manual filtering and possible action. The paper suggests two solutions for this, content analysis and user profiling. In the former case, aspects of the tweet are assigned a score to assess its likely relationship to the topic at hand, and the urgency of the information, whilst the latter attempts to identify those users who are either serving as amplifiers of information or are known as an authoritative source. Through these techniques, the information contained in a large dataset could be filtered down to match the expected capacity of emergency responders, and knowledge as to the core keywords or hashtags relating to the current event is constantly refined for future data collection. The second paper is also concerned with identifying significant tweets, but in this case tweets relevant to particular prediction market; tennis betting. As increasing numbers of professional sports men and women create Twitter accounts to communicate with their fans, information is being shared regarding injuries, form and emotions which have the potential to impact on future results. As has already been demonstrated with leading US sports, such information is extremely valuable. Tennis, as with American Football (NFL) and Baseball (MLB) has paid subscription services which manually filter incoming news sources, including tweets, for information valuable to gamblers, gambling operators, and fantasy sports players. However, whilst such services are still niche operations, much of the value of information is lost by the time it reaches one of these services. The paper thus considers how information could be filtered from twitter user lists and hash tag or keyword monitoring, assessing the value of the source, information, and the prediction markets to which it may relate. The third paper examines methods for collecting Twitter data and following changes in an ongoing, dynamic social movement, such as the Occupy Wall Street movement. It involves the development of technical infrastructure to collect and make the tweets available for exploration and analysis. A strategy to respond to changes in the social movement is also required or the resulting tweets will only reflect the discussions and strategies the movement used at the time the keyword list is created — in a way, keyword creation is part strategy and part art. In this paper we describe strategies for the creation of a social media archive, specifically tweets related to the Occupy Wall Street movement, and methods for continuing to adapt data collection strategies as the movement’s presence in Twitter changes over time. We also discuss the opportunities and methods to extract data smaller slices of data from an archive of social media data to support a multitude of research projects in multiple fields of study. The common theme amongst these papers is that of constructing a data set, filtering it for a specific purpose, and then using the resulting information to aid in future data collection. The intention is that through the papers presented, and subsequent discussion, the panel will inform the wider research community not only on the objectives and limitations of data collection, live analytics, and filtering, but also on current and in-development methodologies that could be adopted by those working with such datasets, and how such approaches could be customized depending on the project stakeholders.

Containing Queensland prickly pear : buffer zones, closer settlement, whiteness

By 1925, the introduced prickly pear (Opuntia and Nopalea spp.) covered up to 60 million acres of Queensland and New South Wales in what was perceived as prime agricultural land. After 40 years of experimentation, all Queensland Government strategies had failed. Faced with this failure and a diminishing expectation that the land would ever be conquered, buffer zones were proposed by the newly formed Queensland Prickly Pear Land Commission. A close reading of government documents, newspaper reports and local histories about these buffer zones shows how settler anxieties over who could or should occupy the land shaped the kinds of strategies recommended and adopted in relation to this alien species. Physical and cultural techniques were used to manage the uneasy coexistence between prickly pear, on the one hand, and farmers and graziers on the other. Furthermore, this environmental history challenges the notion of racially homogenous closer settlement under the White Australia Policy, showing the many different kinds of livelihood and labour in prickly pear land in the 1920s.

Plasmodium vivax malaria incidence over time and its association with temperature and rainfall in four counties of Yunnan Province, China

Background Transmission of Plasmodium vivax malaria is dependent on vector availability, biting rates and parasite development. In turn, each of these is influenced by climatic conditions. Correlations have previously been detected between seasonal rainfall, temperature and malaria incidence patterns in various settings. An understanding of seasonal patterns of malaria, and their weather drivers, can provide vital information for control and elimination activities. This research aimed to describe temporal patterns in malaria, rainfall and temperature, and to examine the relationships between these variables within four counties of Yunnan Province, China. Methods Plasmodium vivax malaria surveillance data (1991–2006), and average monthly temperature and rainfall were acquired. Seasonal trend decomposition was used to examine secular trends and seasonal patterns in malaria. Distributed lag non-linear models were used to estimate the weather drivers of malaria seasonality, including the lag periods between weather conditions and malaria incidence. Results There was a declining trend in malaria incidence in all four counties. Increasing temperature resulted in increased malaria risk in all four areas and increasing rainfall resulted in increased malaria risk in one area and decreased malaria risk in one area. The lag times for these associations varied between areas. Conclusions The differences detected between the four counties highlight the need for local understanding of seasonal patterns of malaria and its climatic drivers.

The baby boomers and beyond report : physical activity levels of older Western Australians 2006

Participation in sufficient levels of physical activity provides significant health benefits, particularly in older adults. The monitoring of physical activity levels in the Western Australian population is therefore necessary for developing and implementing strategies and programs for increasing participation. The Premier’s Physical Activity Taskforce (PATF) conducted a survey in 2006 to measure physical activity levels among Western Australian adults to follow-up the 1999 and 2002 state physical activity surveys. There is now widespread agreement that many health problems of older life – including the onset of frailty and disability – can be postponed or delayed by adopting health-enhancing habits such as physical activity. Adults over 65 years are the most rapidly growing age group and will continue to rise as more persons turn 65. If older adults could be encouraged to be more active as they age, frailty and disability associated with falls would be reduced, and function and physical and mental health in older people would be improved thereby reducing the burden of disease and injury. Given that physical inactivity is one of the most important and modifiable risk factors contributing to ill health, particularly for people as they age, the overall aim of this study was to examine patterns of physical activity in those aged 45 years and over – referred to hereafter as baby boomers+ – in more detail.

Modelling for the electricity distribution network

Global awareness for cleaner and renewable energy is transforming the electricity sector at many levels. New technologies are being increasingly integrated into the electricity grid at high, medium and low voltage levels, new taxes on carbon emissions are being introduced and individuals can now produce electricity, mainly through rooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems. While leading to improvements, these changes also introduce challenges, and a question that often rises is ‘how can we manage this constantly evolving grid?’ The Queensland Government and Ergon Energy, one of the two Queensland distribution companies, have partnered with some Australian and German universities on a project to answer this question in a holistic manner. The project investigates the impact the integration of renewables and other new technologies has on the physical structure of the grid, and how this evolving system can be managed in a sustainable and economical manner. To aid understanding of what the future might bring, a software platform has been developed that integrates two modelling techniques: agent-based modelling (ABM) to capture the characteristics of the different system units accurately and dynamically, and particle swarm optimization (PSO) to find the most economical mix of network extension and integration of distributed generation over long periods of time. Using data from Ergon Energy, two types of networks (3 phase, and Single Wired Earth Return or SWER) have been modelled; three-phase networks are usually used in dense networks such as urban areas, while SWER networks are widely used in rural Queensland. Simulations can be performed on these networks to identify the required upgrades, following a three-step process: a) what is already in place and how it performs under current and future loads, b) what can be done to manage it and plan the future grid and c) how these upgrades/new installations will perform over time. The number of small-scale distributed generators, e.g. PV and battery, is now sufficient (and expected to increase) to impact the operation of the grid, which in turn needs to be considered by the distribution network manager when planning for upgrades and/or installations to stay within regulatory limits. Different scenarios can be simulated, with different levels of distributed generation, in-place as well as expected, so that a large number of options can be assessed (Step a). Once the location, sizing and timing of assets upgrade and/or installation are found using optimisation techniques (Step b), it is possible to assess the adequacy of their daily performance using agent-based modelling (Step c). One distinguishing feature of this software is that it is possible to analyse a whole area at once, while still having a tailored solution for each of the sub-areas. To illustrate this, using the impact of battery and PV can have on the two types of networks mentioned above, three design conditions can be identified (amongst others): · Urban conditions o Feeders that have a low take-up of solar generators, may benefit from adding solar panels o Feeders that need voltage support at specific times, may be assisted by installing batteries · Rural conditions - SWER network o Feeders that need voltage support as well as peak lopping may benefit from both battery and solar panel installations. This small example demonstrates that no single solution can be applied across all three areas, and there is a need to be selective in which one is applied to each branch of the network. This is currently the function of the engineer who can define various scenarios against a configuration, test them and iterate towards an appropriate solution. Future work will focus on increasing the level of automation in identifying areas where particular solutions are applicable.

Alcohol ingestion impairs maximal post-exercise rates of myofibrillar protein synthesis following a single bout of concurrent training

Introduction The culture in many team sports involves consumption of large amounts of alcohol after training/competition. The effect of such a practice on recovery processes underlying protein turnover in human skeletal muscle are unknown. We determined the effect of alcohol intake on rates of myofibrillar protein synthesis (MPS) following strenuous exercise with carbohydrate (CHO) or protein ingestion. Methods In a randomized cross-over design, 8 physically active males completed three experimental trials comprising resistance exercise (8×5 reps leg extension, 80% 1 repetition maximum) followed by continuous (30 min, 63% peak power output (PPO)) and high intensity interval (10×30 s, 110% PPO) cycling. Immediately, and 4 h post-exercise, subjects consumed either 500 mL of whey protein (25 g; PRO), alcohol (1.5 g·kg body mass−1, 12±2 standard drinks) co-ingested with protein (ALC-PRO), or an energy-matched quantity of carbohydrate also with alcohol (25 g maltodextrin; ALC-CHO). Subjects also consumed a CHO meal (1.5 g CHO·kg body mass−1) 2 h post-exercise. Muscle biopsies were taken at rest, 2 and 8 h post-exercise. Results Blood alcohol concentration was elevated above baseline with ALC-CHO and ALC-PRO throughout recovery (P<0.05). Phosphorylation of mTORSer2448 2 h after exercise was higher with PRO compared to ALC-PRO and ALC-CHO (P<0.05), while p70S6K phosphorylation was higher 2 h post-exercise with ALC-PRO and PRO compared to ALC-CHO (P<0.05). Rates of MPS increased above rest for all conditions (~29–109%, P<0.05). However, compared to PRO, there was a hierarchical reduction in MPS with ALC-PRO (24%, P<0.05) and with ALC-CHO (37%, P<0.05). Conclusion We provide novel data demonstrating that alcohol consumption reduces rates of MPS following a bout of concurrent exercise, even when co-ingested with protein. We conclude that alcohol ingestion suppresses the anabolic response in skeletal muscle and may therefore impair recovery and adaptation to training and/or subsequent performance.

"What's the problem?" One teacher's response to conflict in an early childhood classroom

Scholars in Context: Prospects and Transitions is an edited collection of papers from Face to Face, the 1996 University of Queensland Graduate School of Education Postgraduate Conference. It presents current research undertaken in one of Australia's largest and leading centres for postgraduate research in education. The book is divided into three sections: classrooms through different lenses, in which a variety of classroom related issues are addressed through a range of frameworks; the big picture: global issues, which provides national and international perspectives on policy and cultural issues in a range of education sectors; and framing the individual: perspectives and insights, which includes different strands of research into individuals' development in the context of families and schools. Scholars in Context: Prospects and Transitions demonstrates how current researchers maintain a commitment to innovation and rigour, despite the current uncertainties that bedevil higher education. The work presented here makes a significant contribution to many fields of education research. The range of issues this collection addresses, the variety of theoretical and analytical perspectives adopted, and the scholarship evidenced in each contribution, make this text a valuable compendium of very recent work in education research.

Spiritual wisdom of Taoism in business : through the lens of interpretation realism in a Cisco end-to-end case study

This paper explores how the amalgamated wisdom of East and West can instigate a wisdombased renaissance of humanistic epistemology (Rooney & McKenna, 2005) to provide a platform of harmony in managing knowledge-worker productivity, one of the biggest management challenges of the 21st century (Drucker, 1999). The paper invites further discussions from the social and business research communities on the significance of "interpretation realism" technique in comprehending philosophies of Lao Tzu Confucius and Sun Tzu (Lao/Confucius/Sun] written in "Classical Chinese." This paper concludes with a call to build prudent, responsible practices in management which affects the daily lives of many (Rooney & McKenna, 2005) in today's knowledgebased economy. Interpretation Realism will be applied to an analysis of three Chinese classics of Lao/Confucius/Sun which have been embodied in the Chinese culture for over 2,500 years. Comprehending Lao/Confucius/Sun's philosophies is the first step towards understanding Classical Chinese culture. However, interpreting Chinese subtlety in language and the yin and yang circular synthesis in their mode of thinking is very different to understanding Western thought with its open communication and its linear, analytical pattern of Aristotelian/Platonic wisdom (Zuo, 2012). Furthermore, Eastern ways of communication are relatively indirect and mediatory in culture. Western ways of communication are relatively direct and litigious in culture (Goh, 2002). Furthermore, Lao/Confucius/Sun's philosophies are difficult to comprehend as there are four written Chinese formats and over 250 dialects: Pre-classical Chinese Classical Chinese Literary Chinese and modern Vernacular Chinese Because Classical Chinese is poetic, comprehension requires a mixed approach of interpretation realism combining logical reasoning behind "word splitting word occurrences", "empathetic metaphor" and "poetic appreciation of word.

A data analytics case study assessing factors affecting pavement deflection values

Road networks are a national critical infrastructure. The road assets need to be monitored and maintained efficiently as their conditions deteriorate over time. The condition of one of such assets, road pavement, plays a major role in the road network maintenance programmes. Pavement conditions depend upon many factors such as pavement types, traffic and environmental conditions. This paper presents a data analytics case study for assessing the factors affecting the pavement deflection values measured by the traffic speed deflectometer (TSD) device. The analytics process includes acquisition and integration of data from multiple sources, data pre-processing, mining useful information from them and utilising data mining outputs for knowledge deployment. Data mining techniques are able to show how TSD outputs vary in different roads, traffic and environmental conditions. The generated data mining models map the TSD outputs to some classes and define correction factors for each class.

'It brings back too many memories' : Grantham haunted by floods

Flood waters came rushing back into Grantham over the weekend, two years after their community was devastated. It was too much for many residents, writes journalist Amanda Gearing from Grantham.

GNSS ambiguity resolution with controllable failure rate for long baseline network RTK

Many large-scale GNSS CORS networks have been deployed around the world to support various commercial and scientific applications. To make use of these networks for real-time kinematic positioning services, one of the major challenges is the ambiguity resolution (AR) over long inter-station baselines in the presence of considerable atmosphere biases. Usually, the widelane ambiguities are fixed first, followed by the procedure of determination of the narrowlane ambiguity integers based on the ionosphere-free model in which the widelane integers are introduced as known quantities. This paper seeks to improve the AR performance over long baseline through efficient procedures for improved float solutions and ambiguity fixing. The contribution is threefold: (1) instead of using the ionosphere-free measurements, the absolute and/or relative ionospheric constraints are introduced in the ionosphere-constrained model to enhance the model strength, thus resulting in the better float solutions; (2) the realistic widelane ambiguity precision is estimated by capturing the multipath effects due to the observation complexity, leading to improvement of reliability of widelane AR; (3) for the narrowlane AR, the partial AR for a subset of ambiguities selected according to the successively increased elevation is applied. For fixing the scalar ambiguity, an error probability controllable rounding method is proposed. The established ionosphere-constrained model can be efficiently solved based on the sequential Kalman filter. It can be either reduced to some special models simply by adjusting the variances of ionospheric constraints, or extended with more parameters and constraints. The presented methodology is tested over seven baselines of around 100 km from USA CORS network. The results show that the new widelane AR scheme can obtain the 99.4 % successful fixing rate with 0.6 % failure rate; while the new rounding method of narrowlane AR can obtain the fix rate of 89 % with failure rate of 0.8 %. In summary, the AR reliability can be efficiently improved with rigorous controllable probability of incorrectly fixed ambiguities.