Mathematical modeling for improved greenhouse gas balances, agro-ecosystems, and policy development: Lessons from the Australian experience

If the land sector is to make significant contributions to mitigating anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in coming decades, it must do so while concurrently expanding production of food and fiber. In our view, mathematical modeling will be required to provide scientific guidance to meet this challenge. In order to be useful in GHG mitigation policy measures, models must simultaneously meet scientific, software engineering, and human capacity requirements. They can be used to understand GHG fluxes, to evaluate proposed GHG mitigation actions, and to predict and monitor the effects of specific actions; the latter applications require a change in mindset that has parallels with the shift from research modeling to decision support. We compare and contrast 6 agro-ecosystem models (FullCAM, DayCent, DNDC, APSIM, WNMM, and AgMod), chosen because they are used in Australian agriculture and forestry. Underlying structural similarities in the representations of carbon flows though plants and soils in these models are complemented by a diverse range of emphases and approaches to the subprocesses within the agro-ecosystem. None of these agro-ecosystem models handles all land sector GHG fluxes, and considerable model-based uncertainty exists for soil C fluxes and enteric methane emissions. The models also show diverse approaches to the initialisation of model simulations, software implementation, distribution, licensing, and software quality assurance; each of these will differentially affect their usefulness for policy-driven GHG mitigation prediction and monitoring. Specific requirements imposed on the use of models by Australian mitigation policy settings are discussed, and areas for further scientific development of agro-ecosystem models for use in GHG mitigation policy are proposed.

Estimation of the time of a linear trend in monitoring survival time

Change point estimation is recognized as an essential tool of root cause analyses within quality control programs as it enables clinical experts to search for potential causes of change in hospital outcomes more effectively. In this paper, we consider estimation of the time when a linear trend disturbance has occurred in survival time following an in-control clinical intervention in the presence of variable patient mix. To model the process and change point, a linear trend in the survival time of patients who underwent cardiac surgery is formulated using hierarchical models in a Bayesian framework. The data are right censored since the monitoring is conducted over a limited follow-up period. We capture the effect of risk factors prior to the surgery using a Weibull accelerated failure time regression model. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo to obtain posterior distributions of the change point parameters including the location and the slope size of the trend and also corresponding probabilistic intervals and inferences. The performance of the Bayesian estimator is investigated through simulations and the result shows that precise estimates can be obtained when they are used in conjunction with the risk-adjusted survival time cumulative sum control chart (CUSUM) control charts for different trend scenarios. In comparison with the alternatives, step change point model and built-in CUSUM estimator, more accurate and precise estimates are obtained by the proposed Bayesian estimator over linear trends. These superiorities are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the Bayesian change point detection model are also considered.

5-year Chlamydia vaccination programme could reverse disease-related koala population decline: Predictions from a mathematical model using field data

BACKGROUND Many koala populations around Australia are in serious decline, with a substantial component of this decline in some Southeast Queensland populations attributed to the impact of Chlamydia. A Chlamydia vaccine for koalas is in development and has shown promise in early trials. This study contributes to implementation preparedness by simulating vaccination strategies designed to reverse population decline and by identifying which age and sex category it would be most effective to target. METHODS We used field data to inform the development and parameterisation of an individual-based stochastic simulation model of a koala population endemic with Chlamydia. The model took into account transmission, morbidity and mortality caused by Chlamydia infections. We calibrated the model to characteristics of typical Southeast Queensland koala populations. As there is uncertainty about the effectiveness of the vaccine in real-world settings, a variety of potential vaccine efficacies, half-lives and dosing schedules were simulated. RESULTS Assuming other threats remain constant, it is expected that current population declines could be reversed in around 5-6 years if female koalas aged 1-2 years are targeted, average vaccine protective efficacy is 75%, and vaccine coverage is around 10% per year. At lower vaccine efficacies the immunological effects of boosting become important: at 45% vaccine efficacy population decline is predicted to reverse in 6 years under optimistic boosting assumptions but in 9 years under pessimistic boosting assumptions. Terminating a successful vaccination programme at 5 years would lead to a rise in Chlamydia prevalence towards pre-vaccination levels. CONCLUSION For a range of vaccine efficacy levels it is projected that population decline due to endemic Chlamydia can be reversed under realistic dosing schedules, potentially in just 5 years. However, a vaccination programme might need to continue indefinitely in order to maintain Chlamydia prevalence at a sufficiently low level for population growth to continue.

Learner driver mentor programs: Stakeholder perspectives on an ideal program

This study investigated the development and operation of Learner Driver Mentor Programs (LDMPs). LDMPs are used throughout Australia to assist young learner drivers to gain supervised on-road driving experience through coordinated access to vehicles and supervisors. There is a significant lack of research regarding these programs. In this study, 41 stakeholders including representatives from existing or ceased LDMPs as well as representatives of other groups completed a questionnaire in either survey or interview format. The questionnaire sought information about the objectives of LDMPs, any social problems that were targeted as well as the characteristics of an ideal program and what could be done to improve them. Stakeholders indicated that LDMPs were targeted at local communities and, therefore, there should be a clear local need for the program as well as community ownership and involvement in the program. Additionally, the program needed to be accessible and provide clear positive outcomes for mentees. The most common suggestion to improve LDMPs related to the provision of greater funding and sponsorship, particularly in relation to the vehicles used within the programs. LDMPs appear to have an important role in facilitating young learner drivers to acquire the appropriate number of supervised hours of driving practice. However, while a number of factors appear related to a successful program, the program must remain flexible and suitable for its local community. There is a clear need to complete evaluations of existing programs to ensure that future LDMPs and modifications to existing programs are evidence-based.

A mathematical framework for expanding a railway’s theoretical capacity

Analytical techniques for measuring and planning railway capacity expansion activities have been considered in this article. A preliminary mathematical framework involving track duplication and section sub divisions is proposed for this task. In railways these features have a great effect on network performance and for this reason they have been considered. Additional motivations have also arisen from the limitations of prior models that have not included them.

An integrated mathematical approach to measure the capacity of MMTS

This article focusses upon multi-modal transportation systems (MMTS) and the issues surrounding the determination of system capacity. For that purpose a multi-objective framework is advocated that integrates all the different modes and many different competing capacity objectives. This framework is analytical in nature and facilitates a variety of capacity querying and capacity expansion planning.

Co-designing social marketing programs

Most alcohol education programs are designed by experts, with the target audience largely excluded from this process. Theoretically, application of co-creation which comprises co-design and co- production offers an opportunity to better orient programs to meet audience needs and wants and thereby enhance program outcomes. To date, research focus has centred on value co-creation with content co-design receiving limited research attention. The current study seeks to understand how young people would design an intervention and continues by contrasting an audience designed program with the earlier implemented expert designed program.

Predicting health programme participation: A gravity‐based, hierarchical modelling approach

Statistical analyses of health program participation seek to address a number of objectives compatible with the evaluation of demand for current resources. In this spirit, a spatial hierarchical model is developed for disentangling patterns in participation at the small area level, as a function of population-based demand and additional variation. For the former, a constrained gravity model is proposed to quantify factors associated with spatial choice and account for competition effects, for programs delivered by multiple clinics. The implications of gravity model misspecification within a mixed effects framework are also explored. The proposed model is applied to participation data from a no-fee mammography program in Brisbane, Australia. Attention is paid to the interpretation of various model outputs and their relevance for public health policy.

The ACA effect: Examining how current affairs programs shape victim understandings and responses to online fraud

In recent years, numerous current affairs stories on online fraud victimisation have been broadcast on Australian television. These stories typically feature highly organised, international ‘sting’ operations, in which alleged offenders are arrested and investigated by law enforcement. These portrayals of police responses influence the expectations that some online fraud victims have about how their individual cases will be handled by law enforcement. Based on interviews with 80 online fraud victims, this article argues that a narrow media portrayal of online fraud by television current affairs programs — termed the ‘ACA effect’ — informs victims’ understandings of online fraud and their responses to it. In particular, current affairs programs influence what victims of online fraud expect from police. The article further demonstrates that current affairs programs present themselves as de facto law enforcement agencies, to which victims who receive an unsatisfactory response from police might turn. Overall, the article highlights the importance of current affairs programs portraying a more realistic image of official responses to online fraud.

Mathematics, programming, and STEM

Learning mathematics is a complex and dynamic process. In this paper, the authors adopt a semiotic framework (Yeh & Nason, 2004) and highlight programming as one of the main aspects of the semiosis or meaning-making for the learning of mathematics. During a 10-week teaching experiment, mathematical meaning-making was enriched when primary students wrote Logo programs to create 3D virtual worlds. The analysis of results found deep learning in mathematics, as well as in technology and engineering areas. This prompted a rethinking about the nature of learning mathematics and a need to employ and examine a more holistic learning approach for the learning in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) areas.

Mathematical modelling of the impaction and spreading of spray droplets on leaves

This thesis concerns the development of mathematical models to describe the interactions that occur between spray droplets and leaves. Models are presented that not only provide a contribution to mathematical knowledge in the field of fluid dynamics, but are also of utility within the agrichemical industry. The thesis is presented in two parts. First, thin film models are implemented with efficient numerical schemes in order to simulate droplets on virtual leaf surfaces. Then the interception event is considered, whereby energy balance techniques are employed to instantaneously predict whether an impacting droplet will bounce, splash, or adhere to a leaf.

Retinal photography screening programs to prevent vision loss from diabetic retinopathy in rural and urban Australia: A review

Purpose This review assessed the effectiveness of diabetic retinopathy (DR) screening programs, using retinal photography in Australian urban and rural settings, and considered implications for public health strategy and policy. Methods An electronic search of MEDLINE, PubMed, and Embase for studies published between 1 January 1996 and the 30 June 2013 was undertaken. Key search terms were “diabetic retinopathy,” “screening,” “retinal photography” and “Australia.” Results Twelve peer-reviewed publications were identified. The 14 DR screening programs identified from the 12 publications were successfully undertaken in urban, rural and remote communities across Australia. Locations included a pathology collection center, and Indigenous primary health care and Aboriginal community controlled organizations. Each intervention using retinal photography was highly effective at increasing the number of people who underwent screening for DR. The review identified that prior to commencement of the screening programs a median of 48% (range 16–85%) of those screened had not undergone a retinal examination within the recommended time frame (every year for Indigenous people and every 2 years for non-Indigenous people in Australia). A median of 16% (range 0–45%) of study participants had evidence of DR. Conclusions This review has shown there have been many pilot and demonstration projects in rural and urban Australia that confirm the effectiveness of retinal photography-based screening for DR

Mathematical models of calcium and tight junctions in normal and reconstructed epidermis

This project investigated the calcium distributions of the skin, and the growth patterns of skin substitutes grown in the laboratory, using mathematical models. The research found that the calcium distribution in the upper layer of the skin is controlled by three different mechanisms, not one as previously thought. The research also suggests that tight junctions, which are adhesions between neighbouring skin cells, cannot be solely responsible for the differences in the growth patterns of skin substitutes and normal skin.

Lessons to be learnt from two professional development programs

The involvement of teachers in any process which seeks to enhance classroom pedagogy is vital. In this area, professional development (PD) for teachers can be effective in developing and broadening classroom practices, but the process takes time. Teachers need time to reflect on their practice and be confident in implementing new programs and strategies by taking risks and employing different approaches in their pedagogy. There are various ways of initiating professional development which also take into account time for reflection. One is by the use of professional development to improve knowledge and skills. Another way is by teachers observing the practice of their colleagues before reflecting and modifying their own practice. This study discusses the findings of a case study where two different PD programs in a single secondary school were implemented with the assistance of two University Lecturers. The study revealed that although there were positive reflections on the development of knowledge and skills from the PD, factors such as collegiality and time and infrastructure constraints impacted the teachers involved in both the Reflective Practice and the technology PD programs. The school was part of the Brisbane Catholic Education Office (BCE) in Queensland, Australia and the researchers were both Senior Lecturers at the Queensland University of Technology in Brisbane.

Chinese cultural competency and Australian law students: Reflections on the design of short term mobility programs

There is an emerging need for Australia’s law graduates to better understand the unique challenges and opportunities in our largest trading partner, China. Similarly, as China opens up to the world, its graduates are increasingly well-poised to make an indelible mark on Chinese-Australian relations, particularly in the areas of finance, property, trade and commerce. Chinese and Australian law schools must urgently develop a deeper awareness of each other’s language, culture and political systems in their graduates. The purpose of this article is to highlight the importance of Chinese cultural competency to Australian legal education and reflect on projects that enable students to attain a level of cultural competency over a short period. We do this by considering a recent ‘short term mobility project’ in Wuhan, China.