A standing vehicle occupant is likely to sustain a more severe injury than one who has flexed knees in an under‐vehicle explosion : a cadaveric study

The lower limb of military vehicle occupants has been the most injured body part due to undervehicle explosions in recent conflicts. Understanding the injury mechanism and causality of injury severity could aid in developing better protection. Therefore, we tested 4 different occupant postures (seated, brace, standing, standing with knee locked in hyper‐extension) in a simulated under‐vehicle explosion (solid blast) using our traumatic injury simulator in the laboratory; we hypothesised that occupant posture would affect injury severity. No skeletal injury was observed in the specimens in seated and braced postures. Severe, impairing injuries were observed in the foot of standing and hyper‐extended specimens. These results demonstrate that a vehicle occupant whose posture at the time of the attack incorporates knee flexion is more likely to be protected against severe skeletal injury to the lower leg.

Use of cadavers and anthropometric test devices (ATDs) for assessing lower limb injury outcome from under‐vehicle explosions

Lower extremities are particularly susceptible to injury in an under‐vehicle explosion. Operational fitness of military vehicles is assessed through anthropometric test devices (ATDs) in full‐scale blast tests. The aim of this study was to compare the response between the Hybrid‐III ATD, the MiL‐Lx ATD and cadavers in our traumatic injury simulator, which is able to replicate the response of the vehicle floor in an under‐vehicle explosion. All specimens were fitted with a combat boot and tested on our traumatic injury simulator in a seated position. The load recorded in the ATDs was above the tolerance levels recommended by NATO in all tests; no injuries were observed in any of the 3 cadaveric specimens. The Hybrid‐III produced higher peak forces than the MiL‐Lx. The time to peak strain in the calcaneus of the cadavers was similar to the time to peak force in the ATDs. Maximum compression of the sole of the combat boot was similar for cadavers and MiL‐Lx, but significantly greater for the Hybrid‐III. These results suggest that the MiL‐Lx has a more biofidelic response to under‐vehicle explosive events compared to the Hybrid‐III. Therefore, it is recommended that mitigation strategies are assessed using the MiL‐Lx surrogate and not the Hybrid‐III.

Prediction with limited advice and multiarmed bandits with paid observations

We study two problems of online learning under restricted information access. In the first problem, prediction with limited advice, we consider a game of prediction with expert advice, where on each round of the game we query the advice of a subset of M out of N experts. We present an algorithm that achieves O(√(N/M)TlnN ) regret on T rounds of this game. The second problem, the multiarmed bandit with paid observations, is a variant of the adversarial N-armed bandit game, where on round t of the game we can observe the reward of any number of arms, but each observation has a cost c. We present an algorithm that achieves O((cNlnN) 1/3 T2/3+√TlnN ) regret on T rounds of this game in the worst case. Furthermore, we present a number of refinements that treat arm- and time-dependent observation costs and achieve lower regret under benign conditions. We present lower bounds that show that, apart from the logarithmic factors, the worst-case regret bounds cannot be improved.

Comparing different approach and avoidance models of learning and personality in the prediction of work, university, and leadership outcomes

Jackson (2005) developed a hybrid model of personality and learning, known as the learning styles profiler (LSP) which was designed to span biological, socio-cognitive, and experiential research foci of personality and learning research. The hybrid model argues that functional and dysfunctional learning outcomes can be best understood in terms of how cognitions and experiences control, discipline, and re-express the biologically based scale of sensation-seeking. In two studies with part-time workers undertaking tertiary education (N equals 137 and 58), established models of approach and avoidance from each of the three different research foci were compared with Jackson's hybrid model in their predictiveness of leadership, work, and university outcomes using self-report and supervisor ratings. Results showed that the hybrid model was generally optimal and, as hypothesized, that goal orientation was a mediator of sensation-seeking on outcomes (work performance, university performance, leader behaviours, and counterproductive work behaviour). Our studies suggest that the hybrid model has considerable promise as a predictor of work and educational outcomes as well as dysfunctional outcomes.

Traffic incident clearance time and arrival time prediction based on hazard models

Accurate prediction of incident duration is not only important information of Traffic Incident Management System, but also an ffective input for travel time prediction. In this paper, the hazard based prediction odels are developed for both incident clearance time and arrival time. The data are obtained from the Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads’ STREAMS Incident Management System (SIMS) for one year ending in November 2010. The best fitting distributions are drawn for both clearance and arrival time for 3 types of incident: crash, stationary vehicle, and hazard. The results show that Gamma, Log-logistic, and Weibull are the best fit for crash, stationary vehicle, and hazard incident, respectively. The obvious impact factors are given for crash clearance time and arrival time. The quantitative influences for crash and hazard incident are presented for both clearance and arrival. The model accuracy is analyzed at the end.

Validity of accelerometry for measurement of activity in people with brain injury

Purpose To evaluate the validity of a uniaxial accelerometer (MTI Actigraph) for measuring physical activity in people with acquired brain injury (ABI) using portable indirect calorimetry (Cosmed K4b(2)) as a criterion measure. Methods Fourteen people with ABI and related gait pattern impairment (age 32 +/- 8 yr) wore an MTI Actigraph that measured activity (counts(.)min-(1)) and a Cosmed K4b(2) that measured oxygen consumption (mL(.)kg(-1.)min(-1)) during four activities: quiet sitting (QS) and comfortable paced (CP), brisk paced (BP), and fast paced (FP) walking. MET levels were predicted from Actigraph counts using a published equation and compared with Cosmed measures. Predicted METs for each of the 56 activity bouts (14 participants X 4 bouts) were classified (light, moderate, vigorous, or very vigorous intensity) and compared with Cosmed-based classifications. Results Repeated-measures ANOVA indicated that walking condition intensities were significantly different (P < 0.05) and the Actigraph detected the differences. Overall correlation between measured and predicted METs was positive, moderate, and significant (r = 0.74). Mean predicted METs were not significantly different from measured for CP and BP, but for FP walking, predicted METs were significantly less than measured (P < 0.05). The Actigraph correctly classified intensity for 76.8% of all activity bouts and 91.5% of light- and moderate-intensity bouts. Conclusions Actigraph counts provide a valid index of activity across the intensities investigated in this study. For light to moderate activity, Actigraph-based estimates of METs are acceptable for group-level analysis and are a valid means of classifying activity intensity. The Actigraph significantly underestimated higher intensity activity, although, in practice, this limitation will have minimal impact on activity measurement of most community-dwelling people with ABI.

An acute growth factor treatment that preserves function after spinal cord contusion injury

Inflammation of the spinal cord after traumatic spinal cord injury leads to destruction of healthy tissue. This “secondary degeneration” is more damaging than the initial physical damage and is the major contributor to permanent loss of functions. In our previous study we showed that combined delivery of two growth factors, vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and platelet-derived growth factor (PDGF), significantly reduced secondary degeneration after hemi-section injury of the spinal cord in the rat. Growth factor treatment reduced the size of the lesion cavity at 30d compared to control animals and further reduced the cavity at 90d in treated animals while in control animals the lesion cavity continued to increase in size. Growth factor treatment also reduced astrogliosis and reduced macroglia/macrophage activation around the injury site. Treatment with individual growth factors alone had similar effects to control treatments. The present study investigated whether growth factor treatment would improve locomotor behaviour after spinal contusion injury, a more relevant preclinical model of spinal cord injury. The growth factors were delivered for the first 7d to the injury site via osmotic minipump. Locomotor behaviour was monitored at 1-28d after injury using the BBB score and at 30d using automated gait analysis. Treated animals had BBB scores of 18; Control animals scored 10. Treated animals had significantly reduced lesion cavities and reduced macroglia/macrophage activation around the injury site. We conclude that growth factor treatment preserved spinal cord tissues after contusion injury, thereby allowing functional recovery. This treatment has the potential to significantly reduce the severity of human spinal cord injuries.

A collagen prolyl 4-hydroxylase inhibitor reduces adhesions after tendon injury

Collagen synthesis inhibition potentially can reduce adhesion formation after tendon injury but also may affect cutaneous wound healing. We hypothesized that a novel orally administered collagen synthesis inhibitor (CPHI-I) would substantially reduce flexor tendon adhesions after injury, without any clinically important effect on cutaneous wound healing. The experiments were performed in a rat model with an in-continuity crush injury model in the rat hindfoot flexor tendon to provoke adhesion formation. Assays of dermal collagen production and the rate of healing of an excised wound were performed to assess cutaneous wound healing. Animals in the treatment groups received CPHI-I for 1, 2, or 6 weeks and were assessed at either 2 or 6 weeks. The work of flexion in the injured digit was reduced in the CPHI-I-treated animals compared with control animals, (0.188 J versus 0.0307 J at 2 weeks, and 0.0231 J versus 0.0331 J at 6 weeks) The cutaneous wound healing rate was similar in all animals, but dermal collagen synthesis was reduced in the treated animals. The CPHI-I seems to reduce tendon adhesion, and although collagen synthesis was reduced in cutaneous wounds, CPHI-I did not retard wound healing.

Using police crash databases for injury prevention research - a comparison of opt-out and opt-in approaches to study recruitment

Objective: The study aimed to examine the difference in response rates between opt-out and opt-in participant recruitment in a population-based study of heavy-vehicle drivers involved in a police-attended crash. Methods: Two approaches to subject recruitment were implemented in two different states over a 14-week period and response rates for the two approaches (opt-out versus opt-in recruitment) were compared. Results: Based on the eligible and contactable drivers, the response rates were 54% for the optout group and 16% for the opt-in group. Conclusions and Implications: The opt-in recruitment strategy (which was a consequence of one jurisdiction’s interpretation of the national Privacy Act at the time) resulted in an insufficient and potentially biased sample for the purposes of conducting research into risk factors for heavy-vehicle crashes. Australia’s national Privacy Act 1988 has had a long history of inconsistent practices by state and territory government departments and ethical review committees. These inconsistencies can have profound effects on the validity of research, as shown through the significantly different response rates we reported in this study. It is hoped that a more unified interpretation of the Privacy Act across the states and territories, as proposed under the soon-to-be released Australian Privacy Principles will reduce the recruitment challenges outlined in this study.

Personal injury in motor accident in NSW - procedural requirements under Motor Accidents Insurance Act 1988 (NSW)

In Hooper v Robinson [2002] QDC 080 (District Court of Queensland, D 4841 of 2001, McGill DCJ, 19.4.2002) McGill DCJ considered the application of the decision in John Pfeiffer Pty Ltd v Rogerson [2000] 203 CLR 503 to notice requirements such as in s42 of NSW Motor Accident Insurance Act 1988 and concluded such provisions are now substantive.

Predictive validity of accelerometer prediction equations for energy expenditure (EE) during overland walking and running in children and adolescents

Purpose The aim of this study was to assess the predictive validity of three accelerometer prediction equations (Freedson et aL, 1997; Trost et aL, 1998; Puyau et al., 2002) for energy expenditure (EE) during overland walking and running in children and adolescents. Methods 45 healthy children and adolescents aged 10-18 completed the following protocol, each task 5-mins in duration, with a 5-min rest period in between; walking normally; walking briskly; running easily and running fast. During each task participants wore MTI (WAM 7164) Actigraphs on the left and right hips. VO2 was monitored breath by breath using the Cosmed K4b2 portable indirect calorimetry system. For each prediction equation, difference scores were calculated as EE measured minus EE predicted. The percentage of 1-min epochs correctly categorized as light (<3 METs), moderate (3-5.9 METs), and vigorous (≥6 METS) was also calculated. Results The Freedson and Trost equations consistently overestimated MET level. The level of overestimation was statistically significant across all tasks for the Freedson equation, and was significant for only the walking tasks for the Trost equation. The Puyau equation consistently underestimated AEE with the exception of the walking normally task. In terms of categorisation, the Freedson equation (72.8% agreement) demonstrated better agreement than the Puyau (60.6%). Conclusions These data suggest that the three accelerometer prediction equations do not accurately predict EE on a minute-by-minute basis in children and adolescents during overland walking and running. However, the cut points generated by these equations maybe useful for classifying activity as either, light, moderate, or vigorous.

Spatial prediction on a river network

This article develops methods for spatially predicting daily change of dissolved oxygen (Dochange) at both sampled locations (134 freshwater sites in 2002 and 2003) and other locations of interest throughout a river network in South East Queensland, Australia. In order to deal with the relative sparseness of the monitoring locations in comparison to the number of locations where one might want to make predictions, we make a classification of the river and stream locations. We then implement optimal spatial prediction (ordinary and constrained kriging) from geostatistics. Because of their directed-tree structure, rivers and streams offer special challenges. A complete approach to spatial prediction on a river network is given, with special attention paid to environmental exceedances. The methodology is used to produce a map of Dochange predictions for 2003. Dochange is one of the variables measured as part of the Ecosystem Health Monitoring Program conducted within the Moreton Bay Waterways and Catchments Partnership.

Study Protocol - Alcohol Management Plans (AMPs) in remote indigenous communities in Queensland: their impacts on injury, violence, health and social indicators and their cost-effectiveness

Background In 2002/03 the Queensland Government responded to high rates of alcohol-related harm in discrete Indigenous communities by implementing alcohol management plans (AMPs), designed to include supply and harm reduction and treatment measures. Tighter alcohol supply and carriage restrictions followed in 2008 following indications of reductions in violence and injury. Despite the plans being in place for over a decade, no comprehensive independent review has assessed to what level the designed aims were achieved and what effect the plans have had on Indigenous community residents and service providers. This study will describe the long-term impacts on important health, economic and social outcomes of Queensland’s AMPs. Methods/Design The project has two main studies, 1) outcome evaluation using de-identified epidemiological data on injury, violence and other health and social indicators for across Queensland, including de-identified databases compiled from relevant routinely-available administrative data sets, and 2) a process evaluation to map the nature, timing and content of intervention components targeting alcohol. Process evaluation will also be used to assess the fidelity with which the designed intervention components have been implemented, their uptake and community responses to them and their perceived impacts on alcohol supply and consumption, injury, violence and community health. Interviews and focus groups with Indigenous residents and service providers will be used. The study will be conducted in all 24 of Queensland’s Indigenous communities affected by alcohol management plans. Discussion This evaluation will report on the impacts of the original aims for AMPs, what impact they have had on Indigenous residents and service providers. A central outcome will be the establishment of relevant databases describing the parameters of the changes seen. This will permit comprehensive and rigorous surveillance systems to be put in place and provided to communities empowering them with the best credible evidence to judge future policy and program requirements for themselves. The project will inform impending alcohol policy and program adjustments in Queensland and other Australian jurisdictions. The project has been approved by the James Cook University Human Research Ethics Committee (approval number H4967 & H5241).

Beyond point forecasting : evaluation of alternative prediction intervals for tourist arrivals

This paper evaluates the performances of prediction intervals generated from alternative time series models, in the context of tourism forecasting. The forecasting methods considered include the autoregressive (AR) model, the AR model using the bias-corrected bootstrap, seasonal ARIMA models, innovations state space models for exponential smoothing, and Harvey’s structural time series models. We use thirteen monthly time series for the number of tourist arrivals to Hong Kong and Australia. The mean coverage rates and widths of the alternative prediction intervals are evaluated in an empirical setting. It is found that all models produce satisfactory prediction intervals, except for the autoregressive model. In particular, those based on the biascorrected bootstrap perform best in general, providing tight intervals with accurate coverage rates, especially when the forecast horizon is long.