Dynamic Bayesian network inferencing for non-homogeneous complex systems

Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) provide a versatile platform for predicting and analysing the behaviour of complex systems. As such, they are well suited to the prediction of complex ecosystem population trajectories under anthropogenic disturbances such as the dredging of marine seagrass ecosystems. However, DBNs assume a homogeneous Markov chain whereas a key characteristics of complex ecosystems is the presence of feedback loops, path dependencies and regime changes whereby the behaviour of the system can vary based on past states. This paper develops a method based on the small world structure of complex systems networks to modularise a non-homogeneous DBN and enable the computation of posterior marginal probabilities given evidence in forwards inference. It also provides an approach for an approximate solution for backwards inference as convergence is not guaranteed for a path dependent system. When applied to the seagrass dredging problem, the incorporation of path dependency can implement conditional absorption and allows release from the zero state in line with environmental and ecological observations. As dredging has a marked global impact on seagrass and other marine ecosystems of high environmental and economic value, using such a complex systems model to develop practical ways to meet the needs of conservation and industry through enhancing resistance and/or recovery is of paramount importance.

Genetic studies of body mass index yield new insights for obesity biology

Obesity is heritable and predisposes to many diseases. To understand the genetic basis of obesity better, here we conduct a genome-wide association study and Metabochip meta-analysis of body mass index (BMI), a measure commonly used to define obesity and assess adiposity, in up to 339,224 individuals. This analysis identifies 97 BMI-associated loci (P < 5 × 10−8), 56 of which are novel. Five loci demonstrate clear evidence of several independent association signals, and many loci have significant effects on other metabolic phenotypes. The 97 loci account for ~2.7% of BMI variation, and genome-wide estimates suggest that common variation accounts for >20% of BMI variation. Pathway analyses provide strong support for a role of the central nervous system in obesity susceptibility and implicate new genes and pathways, including those related to synaptic function, glutamate signalling, insulin secretion/action, energy metabolism, lipid biology and adipogenesis.

A taxonomic approach to understanding managerial ethical decision making approaches of clinically and non-clinically trained healthcare managers in Australia

Objective To understand differences in the managerial ethical decision-making styles of Australian healthcare managers through the exploratory use of the Managerial Ethical Profiles (MEP) Scale. Background Healthcare managers (doctors, nurses, allied health practitioners and non-clinically trained professionals) are faced with a raft of variables when making decisions within the workplace. In the absence of clear protocols and policies healthcare managers rely on a range of personal experiences, personal ethical philosophies, personal factors and organizational factors to arrive at a decision. Understanding the dominant approaches to managerial ethical decision-making, particularly for clinically trained healthcare managers, is a fundamental step in both increasing awareness of the importance of how managers make decisions, but also as a basis for ongoing development of healthcare managers. Design Cross-sectional. Methods The study adopts a taxonomic approach that simultaneously considers multiple ethical factors that potentially influence managerial ethical decision-making. These factors are used as inputs into cluster analysis to identify distinct patterns of influence on managerial ethical decision-making. Results Data analysis from the participants (n=441) showed a similar spread of the five managerial ethical profiles (Knights, Guardian Angels, Duty Followers, Defenders and Chameleons) across clinically trained and non-clinically trained healthcare managers. There was no substantial statistical difference between the two manager types (clinical and non-clinical) across the five profiles. Conclusion This paper demonstrated that managers that came from clinical backgrounds have similar ethical decision-making profiles to non-clinically trained managers. This is an important finding in terms of manager development and how organisations understand the various approaches of managerial decision-making across the different ethical profiles.

Do health inquiries lead to health system change? What have we learnt from recent health inquiries and will the same mistakes happen again?

Since 2001 there have been numerous Commissions of Inquiry into health system failures across the world. While the Inquiries were established to examine poor patient outcomes, each has identified a range of leadership and management shortcomings that have contributed to a poor standard of patient care. While there is an acknowledgement that different heath systems have different contexts, this paper highlights a number of themes that are common across Inquiries. It will discuss a number of common system failures in Inquiries spanning from 2001 to 2013 and pose questions as to why these types of failures are likely to re-occur, as well as possible learnings for health service management and leadership to address a number of these common themes.

Applying the principles of interpretive field research: An example of an IS case study on shared services

All sound research commence with the selection of a research paradigm. The chosen research paradigm is significant in shaping the researcher’s perspectives of the world and it is a vital step in any study’s’ research design. There are different paradigms that IS researchers can choose from; amongst which the interpretive paradigm is growing in acceptance.. Though interpretive research has emerged as an important strand in Information Systems (IS), guidelines on how to conduct interpretive research and how to evaluate them have been scarce. Klein and Myers presented seven principles with examples for each from three case examples. While these principles are much valued, there is a lack of support for novice researchers on how to embed these principles in an overall research design, which could help with the aid of a detailed example that has done so. Thus, this paper aims to address this gap, and presents how Klein and Myers’s principles were applied within an example study that investigated shared services in the Malaysian Higher Education context. The example study adopted the interpretive paradigm as the most suited approach that fitted their research questions and goals. More details about the selection and adoption of the Klein and Myers’s guidelines in the context of the shared services research case study are presented in the paper.

Will supermarkets go the extra aisle?

The drastic social and demographic changes of the past few decades have radically changed traditional gender roles within the family structure in Australia.In the process, they have also changed the way we shop.

We are what we eat: The demise of the ethical grocery shopper

In 1954, American consumer behaviour academic, Gregory Stone identified four different types of consumers. Consisting of 150 in-depth interviews, Stone’s research found there was an “economic” shopper, who was after bargains, a “personalising” shopper, who liked interaction with staff, and an “apathetic” shopper, who was disillusioned and unengaged in shopping activity. Then there was the “ethical” grocery shopper – consumers who demonstrated a moral obligation to patronise local merchants, purchase locally produced products and felt the need to “shop where they ought to”. This ethical shopper was willing to sacrifice lower prices, convenience and range, in order to “help the little guys out”.The idea of the ethical shopper has since taken hold in mainstream retailing. But my new research has suggested that socially responsible consumption may be a thing of the past.

Get ready for a fruit fight: the fallout from Coles' price war on produce

Amid tough trading conditions and intense competition, Coles has fired the latest salvo in its ongoing supermarket war with Woolworths, announcing it will reduce the price of some fruit and vegetables by 50%. The move is the latest in a battle between the supermarket giants to wrest market share and follows previous cuts to staples such as milk and bread, beer and chicken. However, Australia’s peak industry body of vegetable growers, Ausveg, is concerned about the impact the price decision will have on growers' livelihoods.

Is pharmacy the final frontier for supermarkets?

Australia’s two major supermarket retailers, Coles and Woolworths, already have vested interests in fuel, convenience, liquor, hardware, hotels, apparel, general merchandise and technology. While they continue to battle each other for a share of the household food shopping dollar, pharmacy appears the final opportunity to grow their business.

FactCheck: is our grocery market one of the most concentrated in the world?

With one of the most concentrated food retail sectors in the world dominated by the supermarket duopoly, the barriers to making it easy to buy local food in Australia are significant. It is time for Australia to learn from the example of other countries and provide assistance to rebuild local food systems.” – The Australian Greens. However, the percentage of market share controlled by the two major supermarkets, Coles and Woolworths, depends on which groceries you include.

Aussie retailers should get their Christmas wish this year

Consumer Sentiment fell by 4.8% in December, but despite the drop other indicators still point toward a robust Christmas period for retailers. Retail trade recorded its strongest result for three consecutive months to October, with Queensland and Western Australia leading the way. A closer inspection of ABS Retail figures indicate six consecutive months of positive results and this suggests consumer confidence has finally returned to the market. But it may not be a rosy outlook for all retail sectors. Overall we are spending more, but not where we once traditionally did.

Ready, steady, shop: shopping as sport

Do you approach shopping as if it is a competitive, sport-like activity? Or perhaps you attach social or emotional value in being recognised by your friends and peers as a great shopper, a proficient or efficient shopper? If so, you could be a “sport shopper”, according to an academic paper presented at an international conference earlier this year. This shopper can recount in detail where and when they purchased items - and most importantly, how much they saved. For this shopper, it is not about spending the least, but saving the most. This new “type” should not be confused with the economic shopper; constrained financially and forced to seek out low prices and generic products. And they are definitely not the recreational shopper, who enjoys shopping as a fun activity, engaging in the task to reduce stress and seek pleasure.

What does the future hold for our traditional department stores?

Years of buy-outs, takeovers, mergers and rebranding have whittled a once plentiful landscape of department store competitors down to two major players, Myer and David Jones. Now, despite David Jones confirming it refused a potential A$3 billion merger proposal approach from its arch-competitor in October 2013, we must face the distinct possibility of there only being room for one, full line, up-market department store in Australia.

Who is the South African retail giant behind the David Jones bid?

Yesterday morning came the news South African retailer Woolworths had offered $4 a share to acquire David Jones, a proposal that has the approval of the department store’s board. This offer, worth an estimated A$2.15 billion, represents a 25% premium over the current share price value. An earlier offer, from rival Myer, was rejected earlier this year. But who is Woolworths? Not to be confused with Australia’s largest supermarket, Woolworths SA is one of South Africa’s largest retailers.

A Lidl bit of grocery competition could cause a Coles rethink

Australian shoppers have inadvertently invited global discount grocers to our shores by demonstrating their readiness to adopt private labels. In 2001, German discounter Aldi opened its first store in Sydney. The impact this business format would have on the Australian grocery sector was underestimated.