Formal modelling and analysis of DNP3 secure authentication

Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems are one of the key foundations of smart grids. The Distributed Network Protocol version 3 (DNP3) is a standard SCADA protocol designed to facilitate communications in substations and smart grid nodes. The protocol is embedded with a security mechanism called Secure Authentication (DNP3-SA). This mechanism ensures that end-to-end communication security is provided in substations. This paper presents a formal model for the behavioural analysis of DNP3-SA using Coloured Petri Nets (CPN). Our DNP3-SA CPN model is capable of testing and verifying various attack scenarios: modification, replay and spoofing, combined complex attack and mitigation strategies. Using the model has revealed a previously unidentified flaw in the DNP3-SA protocol that can be exploited by an attacker that has access to the network interconnecting DNP3 devices. An attacker can launch a successful attack on an outstation without possessing the pre-shared keys by replaying a previously authenticated command with arbitrary parameters. We propose an update to the DNP3-SA protocol that removes the flaw and prevents such attacks. The update is validated and verified using our CPN model proving the effectiveness of the model and importance of the formal protocol analysis.

Understanding the relationship between interfragmentary movement and callus growth in fracture healing: A novel computational approach

Introduction & Aims Optimising fracture treatments requires a sound understanding of relationships between stability, callus development and healing outcomes. This has been the goal of computational modelling, but discrepancies remain between simulations and experimental results. We compared healing patterns vs fixation stiffness between a novel computational callus growth model and corresponding experimental data. Hypothesis We hypothesised that callus growth is stimulated by diffusible signals, whose production is in turn regulated by mechanical conditions at the fracture site. We proposed that introducing this scheme into computational models would better replicate the observed tissue patterns and the inverse relationship between callus size and fixation stiffness. Method Finite element models of bone healing under stiff and flexible fixation were constructed, based on the parameters of a parallel rat femoral osteotomy study. An iterative procedure was implemented, to simulate the development of callus and its mechanical regulation. Tissue changes were regulated according to published mechano-biological criteria. Predictions of healing patterns were compared between standard models, with a pre-defined domain for callus development, and a novel approach, in which periosteal callus growth is driven by a diffusible signal. Production of this signal was driven by local mechanical conditions. Finally, each model’s predictions were compared to the corresponding histological data. Results Models in which healing progressed within a prescribed callus domain predicted that greater interfragmentary movements would displace early periosteal bone formation further from the fracture. This results from artificially large distortional strains predicted near the fracture edge. While experiments showed increased hard callus size under flexible fixation, this was not reflected in the standard models. Allowing the callus to grow from a thin soft tissue layer, in response to a mechanically stimulated diffusible signal, results in a callus shape and tissue distribution closer to those observed histologically. Importantly, the callus volume increased with increasing interfragmentary movement. Conclusions A novel method to incorporate callus growth into computational models of fracture healing allowed us to successfully capture the relationship between callus size and fixation stability observed in our rat experiments. This approach expands our toolkit for understanding the influence of different fixation strategies on healing outcomes.

Improving PLDA speaker verification using WMFD and linear-weighted approaches in limited microphone data conditions

This paper proposes the addition of a weighted median Fisher discriminator (WMFD) projection prior to length-normalised Gaussian probabilistic linear discriminant analysis (GPLDA) modelling in order to compensate the additional session variation. In limited microphone data conditions, a linear-weighted approach is introduced to increase the influence of microphone speech dataset. The linear-weighted WMFD-projected GPLDA system shows improvements in EER and DCF values over the pooled LDA- and WMFD-projected GPLDA systems in inter-view-interview condition as WMFD projection extracts more speaker discriminant information with limited number of sessions/ speaker data, and linear-weighted GPLDA approach estimates reliable model parameters with limited microphone data.

Modelling intermittent microwave convective drying (IMCD) of food materials

This thesis develops comprehensive mathematical models for an advanced drying technology Intermittent Microwave Convective Drying (IMCD). The models provide an improved physical understanding of the heat and mass transport during the drying process, which will help to improve the quality of dried food and energy efficiency of the process, as well as will increase the ability of automation and optimization. The final model in this thesis represents the most comprehensive fundamental multiphase model for IMCD that considers 3D electromagnetics coupled with multiphase porous media transport processes. The 3D electromagnetics considers Maxwell's equation and multiphase transport model considers three different phases: solid matrix, liquid water and gas consisting water vapour and air. The multiphase transport includes pressure-driven flow, capillary diffusion, binary diffusion, and evaporation. The models developed in this thesis were validated with extensive experimental investigations.

Modelling collision potentials in Port Anchorages: Application of the Navigational Traffic Conflict Technique (NTCT)

Despite the extent of works done on modelling port water collisions, not much research effort has been devoted to modelling collisions at port anchorages. This paper aims to fill this important gap in literature by applying the Navigation Traffic Conflict Technique (NTCT) for measuring the collision potentials in anchorages and for examining the factors contributing to collisions. Grounding on the principles of the NTCT, a collision potential measurement model and a collision potential prediction model were developed. These models were illustrated by using vessel movement data of the anchorages in Singapore port waters. Results showed that the measured collision potentials are in close agreement with those perceived by harbour pilots. Higher collision potentials were found in anchorages attached to shoreline and international fairways, but not at those attached to confined water. Higher operating speeds, larger numbers of isolated danger marks and day conditions were associated with reduction in the collision potentials.

Anatomical modelling of the pregnant radiotherapy patient

This study aimed to take existing anatomical models of pregnant women, currently used for radiation pro-tection and nuclear medicine dose calculations, and adapt them for use in the calculation of fetal dose from external beam radiotherapy (EBRT). The models investigated were ‘KATJA’, which was provided as an MCNPX geometry file, and ‘RPI-P6’, which was provided in a simple, voxelized bina-ry format. In-house code was developed, to convert both mod-els into an `egsphant’ format, suitable for use with DOSXYZnrc. The geometries and densities of the resulting phantoms were evaluated and found to accurately represent the source data. As an example of the use of the phantoms, the delivery of a cranial EBRT treatment was simulated using the BEAMnrc and DOSXYZnrc Monte Carlo codes and the likely out-of-field doses to the fetus in each model was calculated. The results of these calculations showed good agreement (with-in one standard deviation) between the doses calculated in KATJA and PRI-P6, despite substantial anatomical differ-ences between the two models. For a 36 Gy prescription dose to a 233.2 cm3 target in the right brain, the mean doses calcu-lated in a region of interest covering the entire uterus were 1.0 +/- 0.6 mSv for KATJA and 1.3 +/- 0.9 mSv for RPI-P6. This work is expected to lead to more comprehensive studies of EBRT treatment plan design and its effects on fetal dose in the future.

Modelling ciphersuite and version negotiation in the TLS protocol

Real-world cryptographic protocols such as the widely used Transport Layer Security (TLS) protocol support many different combinations of cryptographic algorithms (called ciphersuites) and simultaneously support different versions. Recent advances in provable security have shown that most modern TLS ciphersuites are secure authenticated and confidential channel establishment (ACCE) protocols, but these analyses generally focus on single ciphersuites in isolation. In this paper we extend the ACCE model to cover protocols with many different sub-protocols, capturing both multiple ciphersuites and multiple versions, and define a security notion for secure negotiation of the optimal sub-protocol. We give a generic theorem that shows how secure negotiation follows, with some additional conditions, from the authentication property of secure ACCE protocols. Using this framework, we analyse the security of ciphersuite and three variants of version negotiation in TLS, including a recently proposed mechanism for detecting fallback attacks.

QoE modelling for VP9 and H.265 videos on mobile devices

Current mobile devices and streaming video services support high definition (HD) video, increasing expectation for more contents. HD video streaming generally requires large bandwidth, exerting pressures on existing networks. New generation of video compression codecs, such as VP9 and H.265/HEVC, are expected to be more effective for reducing bandwidth. Existing studies to measure the impact of its compression on users’ perceived quality have not been focused on mobile devices. Here we propose new Quality of Experience (QoE) models that consider both subjective and objective assessments of mobile video quality. We introduce novel predictors, such as the correlations between video resolution and size of coding unit, and achieve a high goodness-of-fit to the collected subjective assessment data (adjusted R-square >83%). The performance analysis shows that H.265 can potentially achieve 44% to 59% bit rate saving compared to H.264/AVC, slightly better than VP9 at 33% to 53%, depending on video content and resolution.

Recurrence risk modelling of the genetic susceptibility to ankylosing spondylitis

Objectives - It has long been suspected that susceptibility to ankylosing spondylitis (AS) is influenced by genes lying distant to the major histocompatibility complex. This study compares genetic models of AS to assess the most likely mode of inheritance, using recurrence risk ratios in relatives of affected subjects. Methods - Recurrence risk ratios in different degrees of relatives were determined using published data from studies specifically designed to address the question. The methods of Risch were used to determine the expected recurrence risk ratios in different degrees of relatives, assuming equal first degree relative recurrence risk between models. Goodness of fit was determined by χ2 comparison of the expected number of affected subjects with the observed number, given equal numbers of each type of relative studied. Results - The recurrence risks in different degrees of relatives were: monozygotic (MZ) twins 63% (17/27), first degree relatives 8.2% (441/5390), second degree relatives 1.0% (8/834), and third degree relatives 0.7% (7/997). Parent-child recurrence risk (7.9%, 37/466) was not significantly different from the sibling recurrence risk (8.2%, 404/4924), excluding a significant dominance genetic component to susceptibility. Poor fitting models included single gene, genetic heterogeneity, additive, two locus multiplicative, and one locus and residual polygenes (χ2 > 32 (two degrees of freedom), p < 10-6 for all models). The best fitting model studied was a five locus model with multiplicative interaction between loci (χ2 = 1.4 (two degrees of freedom), p = 0.5). Oligogenic multiplicative models were the best fitting over a range of population prevalences and first degree recurrence risk rates. Conclusions - This study suggests that of the genetic models tested, the most likely model operating in AS is an oligogenic model with predominantly multiplicative interaction between loci.

Systems modelling of the socio-technical aspects of residential electricity use and network peak demand

Provision of network infrastructure to meet rising network peak demand is increasing the cost of electricity. Addressing this demand is a major imperative for Australian electricity agencies. The network peak demand model reported in this paper provides a quantified decision support tool and a means of understanding the key influences and impacts on network peak demand. An investigation of the system factors impacting residential consumers’ peak demand for electricity was undertaken in Queensland, Australia. Technical factors, such as the customers’ location, housing construction and appliances, were combined with social factors, such as household demographics, culture, trust and knowledge, and Change Management Options (CMOs) such as tariffs, price,managed supply, etc., in a conceptual ‘map’ of the system. A Bayesian network was used to quantify the model and provide insights into the major influential factors and their interactions. The model was also used to examine the reduction in network peak demand with different market-based and government interventions in various customer locations of interest and investigate the relative importance of instituting programs that build trust and knowledge through well designed customer-industry engagement activities. The Bayesian network was implemented via a spreadsheet with a tick box interface. The model combined available data from industry-specific and public sources with relevant expert opinion. The results revealed that the most effective intervention strategies involve combining particular CMOs with associated education and engagement activities. The model demonstrated the importance of designing interventions that take into account the interactions of the various elements of the socio-technical system. The options that provided the greatest impact on peak demand were Off-Peak Tariffs and Managed Supply and increases in the price of electricity. The impact in peak demand reduction differed for each of the locations and highlighted that household numbers, demographics as well as the different climates were significant factors. It presented possible network peak demand reductions which would delay any upgrade of networks, resulting in savings for Queensland utilities and ultimately for households. The use of this systems approach using Bayesian networks to assist the management of peak demand in different modelled locations in Queensland provided insights about the most important elements in the system and the intervention strategies that could be tailored to the targeted customer segments.

VH gene usage in immunoglobulin E responses of seasonal rhinitis patients allergic to grass pollen is oligoclonal and antigen driven

Background: IgE is the pivotal-specific effector molecule of allergic reactions yet it remains unclear whether the elevated production of IgE in atopic individuals is due to superantigen activation of B cell populations, increased antibody class switching to IgE or oligoclonal allergen-driven IgE responses. Objectives: To increase our understanding of the mechanisms driving IgE responses in allergic disease we examined immunoglobulin variable regions of IgE heavy chain transcripts from three patients with seasonal rhinitis due to grass pollen allergy. Methods: Variable domain of heavy chain-epsilon constant domain 1 cDNAs were amplified from peripheral blood using a two-step semi-nested PCR, cloned and sequenced. Results: The VH gene family usage in subject A was broadly based, but there were two clusters of sequences using genes VH 3-9 and 3-11 with unusually low levels of somatic mutations, 0-3%. Subject B repeatedly used VH 1-69 and subject C repeatedly used VH 1-02, 1-46 and 5a genes. Most clones were highly mutated being only 86-95% homologous to their germline VH gene counterparts and somatic mutations were more abundant at the complementarity determining rather than framework regions. Multiple sequence alignment revealed both repeated use of particular VH genes as well as clonal relatedness among clusters of IgE transcripts. Conclusion: In contrast to previous studies we observed no preferred VH gene common to IgE transcripts of the three subjects allergic to grass pollen. Moreover, most of the VH gene characteristics of the IgE transcripts were consistent with oligoclonal antigen-driven IgE responses.

A principled experimental design approach to Big Data analysis

Big Datasets are endemic, but they are often notoriously difficult to analyse because of their size, heterogeneity, history and quality. The purpose of this paper is to open a discourse on the use of modern experimental design methods to analyse Big Data in order to answer particular questions of interest. By appealing to a range of examples, it is suggested that this perspective on Big Data modelling and analysis has wide generality and advantageous inferential and computational properties. In particular, the principled experimental design approach is shown to provide a flexible framework for analysis that, for certain classes of objectives and utility functions, delivers near equivalent answers compared with analyses of the full dataset under a controlled error rate. It can also provide a formalised method for iterative parameter estimation, model checking, identification of data gaps and evaluation of data quality. Finally, it has the potential to add value to other Big Data sampling algorithms, in particular divide-and-conquer strategies, by determining efficient sub-samples.

Identification of bacterial community composition in freshwater aquaculture system farming of Litopenaeus vannamei reveals distinct temperature-driven patterns

Change in temperature is often a major environmental factor in triggering waterborne disease outbreaks. Previous research has revealed temporal and spatial patterns of bacterial population in several aquatic ecosystems. To date, very little information is available on aquaculture environment. Here, we assessed environmental temperature effects on bacterial community composition in freshwater aquaculture system farming of Litopenaeus vannamei (FASFL). Water samples were collected over a one-year period, and aquatic bacteria were characterized by polymerase chain reaction-denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (PCR-DGGE) and 16S rDNA pyrosequencing. Resulting DGGE fingerprints revealed a specific and dynamic bacterial population structure with considerable variation over the seasonal change, suggesting that environmental temperature was a key driver of bacterial population in the FASFL. Pyrosequencing data further demonstrated substantial difference in bacterial community composition between the water at higher (WHT) and at lower (WLT) temperatures in the FASFL. Actinobacteria, Proteobacteria and Bacteroidetes were the highest abundant phyla in the FASFL, however, a large number of unclassified bacteria contributed the most to the observed variation in phylogenetic diversity. The WHT harbored remarkably higher diversity and richness in bacterial composition at genus and species levels when compared to the WLT. Some potential pathogenenic species were identified in both WHT and WLT, providing data in support of aquatic animal health management in the aquaculture industry.

Generalizing the use of geographical weights in biodiversity modelling

Aim Determining how ecological processes vary across space is a major focus in ecology. Current methods that investigate such effects remain constrained by important limiting assumptions. Here we provide an extension to geographically weighted regression in which local regression and spatial weighting are used in combination. This method can be used to investigate non-stationarity and spatial-scale effects using any regression technique that can accommodate uneven weighting of observations, including machine learning. Innovation We extend the use of spatial weights to generalized linear models and boosted regression trees by using simulated data for which the results are known, and compare these local approaches with existing alternatives such as geographically weighted regression (GWR). The spatial weighting procedure (1) explained up to 80% deviance in simulated species richness, (2) optimized the normal distribution of model residuals when applied to generalized linear models versus GWR, and (3) detected nonlinear relationships and interactions between response variables and their predictors when applied to boosted regression trees. Predictor ranking changed with spatial scale, highlighting the scales at which different species–environment relationships need to be considered. Main conclusions GWR is useful for investigating spatially varying species–environment relationships. However, the use of local weights implemented in alternative modelling techniques can help detect nonlinear relationships and high-order interactions that were previously unassessed. Therefore, this method not only informs us how location and scale influence our perception of patterns and processes, it also offers a way to deal with different ecological interpretations that can emerge as different areas of spatial influence are considered during model fitting.

Robust face clustering for real-world data

This thesis has investigated how to cluster a large number of faces within a multi-media corpus in the presence of large session variation. Quality metrics are used to select the best faces to represent a sequence of faces; and session variation modelling improves clustering performance in the presence of wide variations across videos. Findings from this thesis contribute to improving the performance of both face verification systems and the fully automated clustering of faces from a large video corpus.