Hierarchical Bayesian models for estimating the extent of plant pest invasions

Plant biosecurity requires statistical tools to interpret field surveillance data in order to manage pest incursions that threaten crop production and trade. Ultimately, management decisions need to be based on the probability that an area is infested or free of a pest. Current informal approaches to delimiting pest extent rely upon expert ecological interpretation of presence / absence data over space and time. Hierarchical Bayesian models provide a cohesive statistical framework that can formally integrate the available information on both pest ecology and data. The overarching method involves constructing an observation model for the surveillance data, conditional on the hidden extent of the pest and uncertain detection sensitivity. The extent of the pest is then modelled as a dynamic invasion process that includes uncertainty in ecological parameters. Modelling approaches to assimilate this information are explored through case studies on spiralling whitefly, Aleurodicus dispersus and red banded mango caterpillar, Deanolis sublimbalis. Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probable extent of pests, given the observation and process model conditioned by surveillance data. Statistical methods, based on time-to-event models, are developed to apply hierarchical Bayesian models to early detection programs and to demonstrate area freedom from pests. The value of early detection surveillance programs is demonstrated through an application to interpret surveillance data for exotic plant pests with uncertain spread rates. The model suggests that typical early detection programs provide a moderate reduction in the probability of an area being infested but a dramatic reduction in the expected area of incursions at a given time. Estimates of spiralling whitefly extent are examined at local, district and state-wide scales. The local model estimates the rate of natural spread and the influence of host architecture, host suitability and inspector efficiency. These parameter estimates can support the development of robust surveillance programs. Hierarchical Bayesian models for the human-mediated spread of spiralling whitefly are developed for the colonisation of discrete cells connected by a modified gravity model. By estimating dispersal parameters, the model can be used to predict the extent of the pest over time. An extended model predicts the climate restricted distribution of the pest in Queensland. These novel human-mediated movement models are well suited to demonstrating area freedom at coarse spatio-temporal scales. At finer scales, and in the presence of ecological complexity, exploratory models are developed to investigate the capacity for surveillance information to estimate the extent of red banded mango caterpillar. It is apparent that excessive uncertainty about observation and ecological parameters can impose limits on inference at the scales required for effective management of response programs. The thesis contributes novel statistical approaches to estimating the extent of pests and develops applications to assist decision-making across a range of plant biosecurity surveillance activities. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling is demonstrated as both a useful analytical tool for estimating pest extent and a natural investigative paradigm for developing and focussing biosecurity programs.

Configurable multi-perspective business process models

A configurable process model provides a consolidated view of a family of business processes. It promotes the reuse of proven practices by providing analysts with a generic modelling artifact from which to derive individual process models. Unfortunately, the scope of existing notations for configurable process modelling is restricted, thus hindering their applicability. Specifically, these notations focus on capturing tasks and control-flow dependencies, neglecting equally important ingredients of business processes such as data and resources. This research fills this gap by proposing a configurable process modelling notation incorporating features for capturing resources, data and physical objects involved in the performance of tasks. The proposal has been implemented in a toolset that assists analysts during the configuration phase and guarantees the correctness of the resulting process models. The approach has been validated by means of a case study from the film industry.

Mesoporous bioglass/silk composite scaffolds for bone tissue engineering

In the past 20 years, mesoporous materials have been attracted great attention due to their significant feature of large surface area, ordered mesoporous structure, tunable pore size and volume, and well-defined surface property. They have many potential applications, such as catalysis, adsorption/separation, biomedicine, etc. [1]. Recently, the studies of the applications of mesoporous materials have been expanded into the field of biomaterials science. A new class of bioactive glass, referred to as mesoporous bioactive glass (MBG), was first developed in 2004. This material has a highly ordered mesopore channel structure with a pore size ranging from 5–20 nm [1]. Compared to non-mesopore bioactive glass (BG), MBG possesses a more optimal surface area, pore volume and improved in vitro apatite mineralization in simulated body fluids [1,2]. Vallet-Regí et al. has systematically investigated the in vitro apatite formation of different types of mesoporous materials, and they demonstrated that an apatite-like layer can be formed on the surfaces of Mobil Composition of Matters (MCM)-48, hexagonal mesoporous silica (SBA-15), phosphorous-doped MCM-41, bioglass-containing MCM-41 and ordered mesoporous MBG, allowing their use in biomedical engineering for tissue regeneration [2-4]. Chang et al. has found that MBG particles can be used for a bioactive drug-delivery system [5,6]. Our study has shown that MBG powders, when incorporated into a poly (lactide-co-glycolide) (PLGA) film, significantly enhance the apatite-mineralization ability and cell response of PLGA films. compared to BG [7]. These studies suggest that MBG is a very promising bioactive material with respect to bone regeneration. It is known that for bone defect repair, tissue engineering represents an optional method by creating three-dimensional (3D) porous scaffolds which will have more advantages than powders or granules as 3D scaffolds will provide an interconnected macroporous network to allow cell migration, nutrient delivery, bone ingrowth, and eventually vascularization [8]. For this reason, we try to apply MBG for bone tissue engineering by developing MBG scaffolds. However, one of the main disadvantages of MBG scaffolds is their low mechanical strength and high brittleness; the other issue is that they have very quick degradation, which leads to an unstable surface for bone cell growth limiting their applications. Silk fibroin, as a new family of native biomaterials, has been widely studied for bone and cartilage repair applications in the form of pure silk or its composite scaffolds [9-14]. Compared to traditional synthetic polymer materials, such as PLGA and poly(3-hydroxybutyrate-co-3-hydroxyvalerate) (PHBV), the chief advantage of silk fibroin is its water-soluble nature, which eliminates the need for organic solvents, that tend to be highly cytotoxic in the process of scaffold preparation [15]. Other advantages of silk scaffolds are their excellent mechanical properties, controllable biodegradability and cytocompatibility [15-17]. However, for the purposes of bone tissue engineering, the osteoconductivity of pure silk scaffolds is suboptimal. It is expected that combining MBG with silk to produce MBG/silk composite scaffolds would greatly improve their physiochemical and osteogenic properties for bone tissue engineering application. Therefore, in this chapter, we will introduce the research development of MBG/silk scaffolds for bone tissue engineering.

Corrected mean-field models for spatially-dependent advection-diffusion-reaction phenomena

In the exclusion-process literature, mean-field models are often derived by assuming that the occupancy status of lattice sites is independent. Although this assumption is questionable, it is the foundation of many mean-field models. In this work we develop methods to relax the independence assumption for a range of discrete exclusion process-based mechanisms motivated by applications from cell biology. Previous investigations that focussed on relaxing the independence assumption have been limited to studying initially-uniform populations and ignored any spatial variations. By ignoring spatial variations these previous studies were greatly simplified due to translational invariance of the lattice. These previous corrected mean-field models could not be applied to many important problems in cell biology such as invasion waves of cells that are characterised by moving fronts. Here we propose generalised methods that relax the independence assumption for spatially inhomogeneous problems, leading to corrected mean-field descriptions of a range of exclusion process-based models that incorporate (i) unbiased motility, (ii) biased motility, and (iii) unbiased motility with agent birth and death processes. The corrected mean-field models derived here are applicable to spatially variable processes including invasion wave type problems. We show that there can be large deviations between simulation data and traditional mean-field models based on invoking the independence assumption. Furthermore, we show that the corrected mean-field models give an improved match to the simulation data in all cases considered.

Towards a classification of criterion referenced assessment models in mathematics courses : student and academic perspectives

We present the findings of a study into the implementation of explicitly criterion- referenced assessment in undergraduate courses in mathematics. We discuss students' concepts of criterion referencing and also the various interpretations that this concept has among mathematics educators. Our primary goal was to move towards a classification of criterion referencing models in quantitative courses. A secondary goal was to investigate whether explicitly presenting assessment criteria to students was useful to them and guided them in responding to assessment tasks. The data and feedback from students indicates that while students found the criteria easy to understand and useful in informing them as to how they would be graded, it did not alter the way the actually approached the assessment activity.

Hylaluronan-based heparin-incorporated hydrogels for generation of axially vascularized bioartificial bone tissues : in vitro and in vivo evaluation in a PLDLLA-TCP-PCL-composite system

Smart matrices are required in bone tissueengineered grafts that provide an optimal environment for cells and retain osteo-inductive factors for sustained biological activity. We hypothesized that a slow-degrading heparin-incorporated hyaluronan (HA) hydrogel can preserve BMP-2; while an arterio–venous (A–V) loop can support axial vascularization to provide nutrition for a bioartificial bone graft. HA was evaluated for osteoblast growth and BMP-2 release. Porous PLDLLA–TCP–PCL scaffolds were produced by rapid prototyping technology and applied in vivo along with HA-hydrogel, loaded with either primary osteoblasts or BMP-2. A microsurgically created A–V loop was placed around the scaffold, encased in an isolation chamber in Lewis rats. HA-hydrogel supported growth of osteoblasts over 8 weeks and allowed sustained release of BMP-2 over 35 days. The A–V loop provided an angiogenic stimulus with the formation of vascularized tissue in the scaffolds. Bone-specific genes were detected by real time RT-PCR after 8 weeks. However, no significant amount of bone was observed histologically. The heterotopic isolation chamber in combination with absent biomechanical stimulation might explain the insufficient bone formation despite adequate expression of bone-related genes. Optimization of the interplay of osteogenic cells and osteo-inductive factors might eventually generate sufficient amounts of axially vascularized bone grafts for reconstructive surgery.

Preclinical animal models for segmental bone defect research and tissue engineering

Currently, well-established clinical therapeutic approaches for bone reconstruction are restricted to the transplantation of autografts and allografts, and the implantation of metal devices or ceramic-based implants to assist bone regeneration. Bone grafts possess osteoconductive and osteoinductive properties, however they are limited in access and availability and associated with donor site morbidity, haemorrhage, risk of infection, insufficient transplant integration, graft devitalisation, and subsequent resorption resulting in decreased mechanical stability. As a result, recent research focuses on the development of alternative therapeutic concepts. Analysing the tissue engineering literature it can be concluded that bone regeneration has become a focus area in the field. Hence, a considerable number of research groups and commercial entities work on the development of tissue engineered constructs for bone regeneration. However, bench to bedside translations are still infrequent as the process towards approval by regulatory bodies is protracted and costly, requiring both comprehensive in vitro and in vivo studies. In translational orthopaedic research, the utilisation of large preclinical animal models is a conditio sine qua non. Consequently, to allow comparison between different studies and their outcomes, it is essential that animal models, fixation devices, surgical procedures and methods of taking measurements are well standardized to produce reliable data pools as a base for further research directions. The following chapter reviews animal models of the weight-bearing lower extremity utilized in the field which include representations of fracture-healing, segmental bone defects, and fracture non-unions.

Object identification based on 3D spatial models of construction sites

On obstacle-cluttered construction sites, understanding the motion characteristics of objects is important for anticipating collisions and preventing accidents. This study investigates algorithms for object identification applications that can be used by heavy equipment operators to effectively monitor congested local environment. The proposed framework contains algorithms for three-dimensional spatial modeling and image matching that are based on 3D images scanned by a high-frame rate range sensor. The preliminary results show that an occupancy grid spatial modeling algorithm can successfully build the most pertinent spatial information, and that an image matching algorithm is best able to identify which objects are in the scanned scene.

Fragment-based version management for repositories of business process models

As organizations reach higher levels of Business Process Management maturity, they tend to accumulate large collections of process models. These repositories may contain thousands of activities and be managed by different stakeholders with varying skills and responsibilities. However, while being of great value, these repositories induce high management costs. Thus, it becomes essential to keep track of the various model versions as they may mutually overlap, supersede one another and evolve over time. We propose an innovative versioning model, and associated storage structure, specifically designed to maximize sharing across process models and process model versions, reduce conflicts in concurrent edits and automatically handle controlled change propagation. The focal point of this technique is to version single process model fragments, rather than entire process models. Indeed empirical evidence shows that real-life process model repositories have numerous duplicate fragments. Experiments on two industrial datasets confirm the usefulness of our technique.

In situ preparation and protein delivery of silicate/alginate composite microspheres with core-shell structure

It is predicted that with increased life expectancy in the developed world, there will be a greater demand for synthetic materials to repair or regenerate lost, injured or diseased bone (Hench & Thompson 2010). There are still few synthetic materials having true bone inductivity, which limits their application for bone regeneration, especially in large-size bone defects. To solve this problem, growth factors, such as bone morphogenetic proteins (BMPs), have been incorporated into synthetic materials in order to stimulate de novo bone formation in the center of large-size bone defects. The greatest obstacle with this approach is that the rapid diffusion of the protein from the carrier material, leading to a precipitous loss of bioactivity; the result is often insufficient local induction or failure of bone regeneration (Wei et al. 2007). It is critical that the protein is loaded in the carrier material in conditions which maintains its bioactivity (van de Manakker et al. 2009). For this reason, the efficient loading and controlled release of a protein from a synthetic material has remained a significant challenge. The use of microspheres as protein/drug carriers has received considerable attention in recent years (Lee et al. 2010; Pareta & Edirisinghe 2006; Wu & Zreiqat 2010). Compared to macroporous block scaffolds, the chief advantage of microspheres is their superior protein-delivery properties and ability to fill bone defects with irregular and complex shapes and sizes. Upon implantation, the microspheres are easily conformed to the irregular implant site, and the interstices between the particles provide space for both tissue and vascular ingrowth, which are important for effective and functional bone regeneration (Hsu et al. 1999). Alginates are natural polysaccharides and their production does not have the implicit risk of contamination with allo or xeno-proteins or viruses (Xie et al. 2010). Because alginate is generally cytocompatible, it has been used extensively in medicine, including cell therapy and tissue engineering applications (Tampieri et al. 2005; Xie et al. 2010; Xu et al. 2007). Calcium cross-linked alginate hydrogel is considered a promising material as a delivery matrix for drugs and proteins, since its gel microspheres form readily in aqueous solutions at room temperature, eliminating the need for harsh organic solvents, thereby maintaining the bioactivity of proteins in the process of loading into the microspheres (Jay & Saltzman 2009; Kikuchi et al. 1999). In addition, calcium cross-linked alginate hydrogel is degradable under physiological conditions (Kibat PG et al. 1990; Park K et al. 1993), which makes alginate stand out as an attractive candidate material for the protein carrier and bone regeneration (Hosoya et al. 2004; Matsuno et al. 2008; Turco et al. 2009). However, the major disadvantages of alginate microspheres is their low loading efficiency and also rapid release of proteins due to the mesh-like networks of the gel (Halder et al. 2005). Previous studies have shown that a core-shell structure in drug/protein carriers can overcome the issues of limited loading efficiencies and rapid release of drug or protein (Chang et al. 2010; Molvinger et al. 2004; Soppimath et al. 2007). We therefore hypothesized that introducing a core-shell structure into the alginate microspheres could solve the shortcomings of the pure alginate. Calcium silicate (CS) has been tested as a biodegradable biomaterial for bone tissue regeneration. CS is capable of inducing bone-like apatite formation in simulated body fluid (SBF) and its apatite-formation rate in SBF is faster than that of Bioglass® and A-W glass-ceramics (De Aza et al. 2000; Siriphannon et al. 2002). Titanium alloys plasma-spray coated with CS have excellent in vivo bioactivity (Xue et al. 2005) and porous CS scaffolds have enhanced in vivo bone formation ability compared to porous β-tricalcium phosphate ceramics (Xu et al. 2008). In light of the many advantages of this material, we decided to prepare CS/alginate composite microspheres by combining a CS shell with an alginate core to improve their protein delivery and mineralization for potential protein delivery and bone repair applications

Business service management : understanding business models

One of the prominent topics in Business Service Management is business models for (new) services. Business models are useful for service management and engineering as they provide a broader and more holistic perspective on services. Business models are particularly relevant for service innovation as this requires paying attention to the business models that make new services viable and business model innovation can drive the innovation of new and established services. Before we can have a look at business models for services, we first need to understand what business models are. This is not straight-forward as business models are still not well comprehended and the knowledge about business models is fragmented over different disciplines, such as information systems, strategy, innovation, and entrepreneurship. This whitepaper, ‘Understanding business models,’ introduces readers to business models. This whitepaper contributes to enhancing the understanding of business models, in particular the conceptualisation of business models by discussing and integrating business model definitions, frameworks and archetypes from different disciplines. After reading this whitepaper, the reader will have a well-developed understanding about what business models are and how the concept is sometimes interpreted and used in different ways. It will help the reader in assessing their own understanding of business models and that and of others. This will contribute to a better and more beneficial use of business models, an increase in shared understanding, and making it easier to work with business model techniques and tools.

Participation index : a measure to identify rural transport disadvantage?

This paper develops a composite participation index (PI) to identify patterns of transport disadvantage in space and time. It is operationalised using 157 weekly activity-travel diaries data collected from three case study areas in rural Northern Ireland. A review of activity space and travel behaviour research found that six dimensional indicators of activity spaces were typically used including the number of unique locations visited, distance travelled, area of activity spaces, frequency of activity participation, types of activity participated in, and duration of participation in order to identify transport disadvantage. A combined measure using six individual indices were developed based on the six dimensional indicators of activity spaces, by taking into account the relativity of the measures for weekdays, weekends, and for a week. Factor analyses were conducted to derive weights of these indices to form the PI measure. Multivariate analysis using general linear models of the different indicators/indices identified new patterns of transport disadvantage. The research found that: indicator based measures and index based measures are complement each other; interactions between different factors generated new patterns of transport disadvantage; and that these patterns vary in space and time. The analysis also indicates that the transport needs of different disadvantaged groups are varied.

Rural activity spaces and transport disadvantage : qualitative analysis of quantitative models integrating time and space

Current knowledge about the relationship between transport disadvantage and activity space size is limited to urban areas, and as a result, very little is known to date about this link in a rural context. In addition, although research has identified transport disadvantaged groups based on their size of activity spaces, these studies have, however, not empirically explained such differences and the result is often a poor identification of the problems facing disadvantaged groups. Research has shown that transport disadvantage varies over time. The static nature of analysis using the activity space concept in previous research studies has lacked the ability to identify transport disadvantage in time. Activity space is a dynamic concept; and therefore possesses a great potential in capturing temporal variations in behaviour and access opportunities. This research derives measures of the size and fullness of activity spaces for 157 individuals for weekdays, weekends, and for a week using weekly activity-travel diary data from three case study areas located in rural Northern Ireland. Four focus groups were also conducted in order to triangulate the quantitative findings and to explain the differences between different socio-spatial groups. The findings of this research show that despite having a smaller sized activity space, individuals were not disadvantaged because they were able to access their required activities locally. Car-ownership was found to be an important life line in rural areas. Temporal disaggregation of the data reveals that this is true only on weekends due to a lack of public transport services. In addition, despite activity spaces being at a similar size, the fullness of activity spaces of low-income individuals was found to be significantly lower compared to their high-income counterparts. Focus group data shows that financial constraint, poor connections both between public transport services and between transport routes and opportunities forced individuals to participate in activities located along the main transport corridors.

Asset life prediction and maintenance decision-making using a non-linear non-Gaussian state space model

Estimating and predicting degradation processes of engineering assets is crucial for reducing the cost and insuring the productivity of enterprises. Assisted by modern condition monitoring (CM) technologies, most asset degradation processes can be revealed by various degradation indicators extracted from CM data. Maintenance strategies developed using these degradation indicators (i.e. condition-based maintenance) are more cost-effective, because unnecessary maintenance activities are avoided when an asset is still in a decent health state. A practical difficulty in condition-based maintenance (CBM) is that degradation indicators extracted from CM data can only partially reveal asset health states in most situations. Underestimating this uncertainty in relationships between degradation indicators and health states can cause excessive false alarms or failures without pre-alarms. The state space model provides an efficient approach to describe a degradation process using these indicators that can only partially reveal health states. However, existing state space models that describe asset degradation processes largely depend on assumptions such as, discrete time, discrete state, linearity, and Gaussianity. The discrete time assumption requires that failures and inspections only happen at fixed intervals. The discrete state assumption entails discretising continuous degradation indicators, which requires expert knowledge and often introduces additional errors. The linear and Gaussian assumptions are not consistent with nonlinear and irreversible degradation processes in most engineering assets. This research proposes a Gamma-based state space model that does not have discrete time, discrete state, linear and Gaussian assumptions to model partially observable degradation processes. Monte Carlo-based algorithms are developed to estimate model parameters and asset remaining useful lives. In addition, this research also develops a continuous state partially observable semi-Markov decision process (POSMDP) to model a degradation process that follows the Gamma-based state space model and is under various maintenance strategies. Optimal maintenance strategies are obtained by solving the POSMDP. Simulation studies through the MATLAB are performed; case studies using the data from an accelerated life test of a gearbox and a liquefied natural gas industry are also conducted. The results show that the proposed Monte Carlo-based EM algorithm can estimate model parameters accurately. The results also show that the proposed Gamma-based state space model have better fitness result than linear and Gaussian state space models when used to process monotonically increasing degradation data in the accelerated life test of a gear box. Furthermore, both simulation studies and case studies show that the prediction algorithm based on the Gamma-based state space model can identify the mean value and confidence interval of asset remaining useful lives accurately. In addition, the simulation study shows that the proposed maintenance strategy optimisation method based on the POSMDP is more flexible than that assumes a predetermined strategy structure and uses the renewal theory. Moreover, the simulation study also shows that the proposed maintenance optimisation method can obtain more cost-effective strategies than a recently published maintenance strategy optimisation method by optimising the next maintenance activity and the waiting time till the next maintenance activity simultaneously.

Attribute exclusion strategies in airline choice : accounting for exogenous information on decision maker processing strategies in models of discrete choice

We examine the impact of individual-specific information processing strategies (IPSs) on the inclusion/exclusion of attributes on the parameter estimates and behavioural outputs of models of discrete choice. Current practice assumes that individuals employ a homogenous IPS with regards to how they process attributes of stated choice (SC) experiments. We show how information collected exogenous of the SC experiment on whether respondents either ignored or considered each attribute may be used in the estimation process, and how such information provides outputs that are IPS segment specific. We contend that accounting the inclusion/exclusion of attributes will result in behaviourally richer population parameter estimates.