PySSM : a Python module for Bayesian inference of linear Gaussian state space models

PySSM is a Python package that has been developed for the analysis of time series using linear Gaussian state space models (SSM). PySSM is easy to use; models can be set up quickly and efficiently and a variety of different settings are available to the user. It also takes advantage of scientific libraries Numpy and Scipy and other high level features of the Python language. PySSM is also used as a platform for interfacing between optimised and parallelised Fortran routines. These Fortran routines heavily utilise Basic Linear Algebra (BLAS) and Linear Algebra Package (LAPACK) functions for maximum performance. PySSM contains classes for filtering, classical smoothing as well as simulation smoothing.

Interaction of myxomatosis and Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease in wild rabbit

Increasing resistance of rabbits to myxomatosis in Australia has led to the exploration of Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease, also called Rabbit Calicivirus Disease (RCD) as a possible control agent. While the initial spread of RCD in Australia resulted in widespread rabbit mortality in affected areas, the possible population dynamic effects of RCD and myxomatosis operating within the same system have not been properly explored. Here we present early mathematical modelling examining the interaction between the two diseases. In this study we use a deterministic compartment model, based on the classical SIR model in infectious disease modelling. We consider, here, only a single strain of myxomatosis and RCD and neglect latent periods. We also include logistic population growth, with the inclusion of seasonal birth rates. We assume there is no cross-immunity due to either disease. The mathematical model allows for the possibility of both diseases to be simultaneously present in an individual, although results are also presented for the case where co infection is not possible, since co-infection is thought to be rare and questions exist as to whether it can occur. The simulation results of this investigation show that it is a crucial issue and should be part of future field studies. A single simultaneous outbreak of RCD and myxomatosis was simulated, while ignoring natural births and deaths, appropriate for a short timescale of 20 days. Simultaneous outbreaks may be more common in Queensland. For the case where co-infection is not possible we find that the simultaneous presence of myxomatosis in the population suppresses the prevalence of RCD, compared to an outbreak of RCD with no outbreak of myxomatosis, and thus leads to a less effective control of the population. The reason for this is that infection with myxomatosis removes potentially susceptible rabbits from the possibility of infection with RCD (like a vaccination effect). We found that the reduction in the maximum prevalence of RCD was approximately 30% for an initial prevalence of 20% of myxomatosis, for the case where there was no simultaneous outbreak of myxomatosis, but the peak prevalence was only 15% when there was a simultaneous outbreak of myxomatosis. However, this maximum reduction will depend on other parameter values chosen. When co-infection is allowed then this suppression effect does occur but to a lesser degree. This is because the rabbits infected with both diseases reduces the prevalence of myxomatosis. We also simulated multiple outbreaks over a longer timescale of 10 years, including natural population growth rates, with seasonal birth rates and density dependent(logistic) death rates. This shows how both diseases interact with each other and with population growth. Here we obtain sustained outbreaks occurring approximately every two years for the case of a simultaneous outbreak of both diseases but without simultaneous co-infection, with the prevalence varying from 0.1 to 0.5. Without myxomatosis present then the simulation predicts RCD dies out quickly without further introduction from elsewhere. With the possibility of simultaneous co-infection of rabbits, sustained outbreaks are possible but then the outbreaks are less severe and more frequent (approximately yearly). While further model development is needed, our work to date suggests that: 1) the diseases are likely to interact via their impacts on rabbit abundance levels, and 2) introduction of RCD can suppress myxomatosis prevalence. We recommend that further modelling in conjunction with field studies be carried out to further investigate how these two diseases interact in the population.

Genesis and role of standards : theoretical foundations and socio-economical model for the construction and use of standards

A key issue in the economic development and performance of organizations is the existence of standards. Their definition and control are sources of power and it is important to understand their concept, as it gives standards their direction and their legitimacy, and to explore how they are represented and applied. The difficulties posed by classical micro-economics in establishing a theory of standardization that is compatible with its fundamental axiomatic are acknowledged. We propose to reconsider the problem by taking the opposite perspective in questioning its theoretical base and by reformulating assumptions about the independent and autonomous decisions taken by actors. The Theory of Conventions will offer us a theoretical framework and tools enabling us to understand the systemic dimension and dynamic structure of standards. These will be seen as a special case of conventions. This work aims to provide a sound basis and promote a better consciousness in the development of global project management standards. It aims also to emphasize that social construction is not a matter of copyright but a matter of open minds, collective cognitive process and freedom for the common wealth.

Genesis and role of standards : theoretical foundations and socio-economical model for the construction and use of standards

A key issue for the economic development and for performance of organizations is the existence of standards. As their definitions and control are source of power, it seems to be important to understand the concept and to wonder about the representations authorized by the concept which give their direction and their legitimacy. The difficulties of classical microeconomics of establishing a theory of standardisation compatible with its fundamental axiomatic are underlined. We propose to reconsider the problem by carrying out the opposite way: to question the theoretical base, by reformulating assumptions on the autonomy of the choice of the actors. The theory of conventions will offer us both a theoretical framework and tools, enabling us to understand the systemic dimension and dynamic structure of standards seen as special case of conventions. This work aims thus to provide a sound basis and promote a better consciousness in the development of global project management standards, aiming also to underline that social construction is not a matter of copyright but a matter of open minds, collective cognitive process and freedom for the common wealth.

Resourceful Adolescent Program for Teachers (RAP-T) : a program for teachers to promote school connectedness in teenagers

Recent research has shown that school connectedness is one of the most important protective factors against teenage depression. RAP-T aims to increase teachers’ recognition of the importance of school connectedness and to develop strategies to promote four key elements of school connectedness.

Identity development in career-changing beginning teachers : a qualitative study of professional scientists becoming school teachers

This qualitative study provides a critical case to analyse the identity development of professionals who already have a strong sense of identity as scientists and have decided to relinquish their professional careers to become teachers. The study followed a group of professionals who undertook a one-year teacher education course and were assigned to secondary and middle-years schools on graduation. Their experiences were examined through the lens of self-determination theory, which posits that autonomy, confidence and relationships are important in achieving job satisfaction. The findings indicated that those teachers who were able to achieve this sense of autonomy and confidence, and had established strong relationships with colleagues generated a positive professional identity as a teacher. The failure to establish supportive relationships was a decisive event that challenged their capacity to develop a strong sense of identity as a teacher.

Teachers’ perceptions of the use of an external change agent in school curriculum change

An external change agent (ECA) was recently employed in three Queensland schools to align the school curriculum with the requirements of the state’s high stakes test known as the Queensland Core Skills test (QCS). This paper reports on the teachers’ perceptions of a change process led by an ECA. With the ever-increasing implementation of high stakes testing in Australian schools, teachers are under mounting pressure to produce ‘results’. Therefore, in order to maximise their students’ success in these tests, schools are altering their curricula to incorporate the test requirements. Rather than the traditional method of managing such curriculum change processes internally, there is a growing trend for principals to source external expertise in the form of ECAs. Although some academics, teachers, and much of the relevant literature, would regard such a practice as problematic, this study found that in fact, teachers were quite open to externally led curriculum change, especially if they perceived the leader to be knowledgeable and creditable in this area.

Questioning pedagogies : Hong Kong pre-service teachers' dialogic reflections on a transnational school experience

There are increasing opportunities in many countries for pre-service teachers to engage in a transnational school-based experience as part of study abroad programmes. The transformative potential of such transnational teaching experiences is recorded in research studies, often supported by data from participant surveys. However, there has been a lack of evidence investigating how shifts in professional understanding derive from such experiences. This qualitative study addresses this issue by exploring the perspectives of 16 pre-service teachers of English as a Second language from Hong Kong, who engaged in transnational teaching activities with primary school pupils in Australia, during their study abroad program. Discourse analysis of participants’ dialogues traces how they encountered conflicting Discourses of ‘student-centredness’ in the Australian classroom. Reflecting dialogically on their experiences led participants to negotiate and reframe their understandings of language teaching pedagogy and themselves as language teachers. The findings demonstrate the importance of both peer and lecturer feedback into the process of dialogic reflection and the need for more longitudinal research into the impact of transnational school-based experience in pre-service teacher education.

Practices of interactive courseware at Malaysia primary smart school : usage standing and causes attributing

Malaysian teachers are now using interactive courseware in their teaching practices as part of teaching activity in classroom, to teach some subjects such as languages, mathematics, and science. Towards this, there is some debate going on the effectiveness of interactive courseware used in classroom. This paper reports data from interviews conducted with school principals and teachers from six selected primary Smart Schools across Malaysia.The interview conducted is looked on their current school practices and challenges in the implementation of interactive courseware in the classroom. The interview covers several aspects of their school facilities, the causes attributed and their concerns. However, the findings revealed that these six schools generally need more supports in the physical and technical form, in order to utilize the interactive courseware. Initially, the current support from the Malaysian Ministry of Education in physical form has proved that not very helpful. Thus, the respondents suggested that supports should be both: physical and technical. Therefore, this preliminary findings could be used as a pointer to the Malaysian government and other stakeholders to the improvement of interface design for future interactive courseware.

Creative suburbia : cultural research and suburban geographies

Suburbanisation today is not necessarily what it used to be: rather than suburbs being outer urban commuter zones for people who work in the central business district, people living in new suburbs are increasingly likely to work in those suburbs, or to commute to other outer suburbs as their places of work. At one level, such trends affirm the analyses of the ‘Los Angeles School’ of urban geographers about the shift from the classical modernist city, with radial zones spreading out from a city centre where core businesses were located, to a more decentralised, ‘postmodern’ city. But they increasingly move beyond this postmodern perspective, in that the many suburbs are themselves centres of work and industry, and not simply centres of lifestyle and consumption. This article critically reflects upon the contemporary dynamics of the suburbs, and the public discourses that surround their development, in the context of the rise of the creative industries.

Robotics toolbox for MATLAB, release 9 [Software]

The ninth release of the Toolbox, represents over fifteen years of development and a substantial level of maturity. This version captures a large number of changes and extensions generated over the last two years which support my new book “Robotics, Vision & Control”. The Toolbox has always provided many functions that are useful for the study and simulation of classical arm-type robotics, for example such things as kinematics, dynamics, and trajectory generation. The Toolbox is based on a very general method of representing the kinematics and dynamics of serial-link manipulators. These parameters are encapsulated in MATLAB ® objects - robot objects can be created by the user for any serial-link manipulator and a number of examples are provided for well know robots such as the Puma 560 and the Stanford arm amongst others. The Toolbox also provides functions for manipulating and converting between datatypes such as vectors, homogeneous transformations and unit-quaternions which are necessary to represent 3-dimensional position and orientation. This ninth release of the Toolbox has been significantly extended to support mobile robots. For ground robots the Toolbox includes standard path planning algorithms (bug, distance transform, D*, PRM), kinodynamic planning (RRT), localization (EKF, particle filter), map building (EKF) and simultaneous localization and mapping (EKF), and a Simulink model a of non-holonomic vehicle. The Toolbox also including a detailed Simulink model for a quadcopter flying robot.

Evaluation of the skills for preventing injury in youth program : impact on health risk behaviors, injury and school connectedness

Injury is the leading cause of death among young people, and involvement in health risk behaviors, such as alcohol use and transport-related risks, is related to increased risk for injury. Effective health promotion programs for adolescents focus on multiple levels, including relationships with peers and parents, student knowledge, behavior and attitudes, and school-level factors such as school connectedness. This study describes the pilot evaluation of a comprehensive, multi-level injury prevention program for 13-14 year old adolescents, targeting change in injury associated with transport and alcohol risks. The program, called Skills for Preventing Injury in Youth (SPIY), incorporates two primary elements: an 8-week, teacher delivered attitude and behavior change curriculum with peer protection and first aid messages; and professional development for program teachers focusing on strategies to increase students’ connectedness to school. Five Australian high schools were recruited for the pilot evaluation research, with three being assigned to receive intervention components and two assigned as curriculum-as-usual controls. In the intervention schools, 118 Year 8 students participated in surveys at baseline, with 105 completing surveys at follow up, six months following the intervention. In the control schools, 196 Year 8 students completed surveys at baseline and 207 at follow up. Survey measures included self-reported injury, risk taking behavior and school connectedness. Results showed that students in the control schools were significantly more likely to report riding bikes without helmets, riding with dangerous drivers, having driven cars on the road, and using alcohol six months after the program, while the intervention group showed no such increase in these behaviors. Additionally, students in the control schools were significantly more likely to report having had pedestrian-related injuries at follow up than they were at the baseline measurement, while intervention school students showed no change. There was also a trend observed in terms of a decrease in bicycle related injuries among intervention school students, compared with a slight increasing trend in bicycle injuries among control students. Overall, scores on the school connectedness scale decreased significantly from baseline to follow up for both intervention and control students, however measurement limitations may have impacted on results relating to students’ connectedness. Overall, the SPIY program has shown promising results in regards to prevention of students’ health risk behavior and injuries. Evidence suggests that the curriculum component was important; however there was limited evidence to suggest that teacher training in school connectedness strategies contributed to these promising results. While school connectedness may be an important factor to target in risk and injury prevention programs, programs may need to incorporate whole-of-school strategies or target a broader range of teachers than were selected for the current research.

Factors influencing speeding in school zones : the role of mindfulness

Background Excessive speed contributes to the incidence and severity of road crashes. The Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) has successfully explained variance in speeding intentions and behaviour. However, studies have shown that more than 40% of the variance in outcome measures of speeding remains unexplained, thus, suggesting additional constructs may help to enhance the TPB’s predictive power. Therefore, this study examined mindfulness; a promising construct which has not yet been tested as an additional TPB predictor. Aims The aims of this study were to explore drivers’ beliefs about speeding in school zones using the extended TPB as a framework and to examine the effect that mindfulness had on driver speeding behaviour in school zones. Methods Australian drivers (N = 17) participated in one of four focus group discussions. The overall sample was comprised of five males and twelve females who were aged between 17 to56 years. All participants were recruited via purposive sampling among 1st year psychology students at a large South East Queensland University. The group discussions took approximately one hour and were guided by a structured interview schedule which sought to elicit drivers’ beliefs, thoughts and opinions on speeding in school zones and the factors which motivate such behaviour. Results Overall, thematic analysis revealed some similar issues emerged across the groups. . In particular and perhaps somewhat unsurprisingly, given public concerns regarding the want to ensure the safety of school children, there was much agreement that speeding in school zones was dangerous and unacceptable. Somewhat paradoxically however, some participants also agreed that they had unintentionally or mindlessly sped in school zones. There were several factors that drivers believed influenced their speeding in school zones including their current mood (e.g., if in a bad mood, anxious, or excited they may be more likely to drive without awareness of, and being attentive to, their driving environment) and the extent to which they were familiar with the environment (i.e., more familiar contexts, more likely to drive mindlessly). Thus, although drivers expressed a belief that speeding in school zones was dangerous and acceptable, the extent to which a driver is mindful does influence whether or not a driver may actually engage in speeding in this context. Discussion and conclusions This study highlights the potential role of mindfulness in helping to explain speeding behaviour in school zones. Mindless drivers may speed unintentionally and while unintentional still be endangering the safety and lives of school children. The findings of this research suggest that unintentional speeding, especially in school zones, may be reduced by countermeasures which heighten the extent to which drivers are mindful of approaching and/or driving through a school zone, such as street markings and engineering measures (e.g.,flashing lights and speed bumps).

Computationally efficient methods for solving time-variable-order time-space fractional reaction-diffusion equation

Fractional differential equations are becoming more widely accepted as a powerful tool in modelling anomalous diffusion, which is exhibited by various materials and processes. Recently, researchers have suggested that rather than using constant order fractional operators, some processes are more accurately modelled using fractional orders that vary with time and/or space. In this paper we develop computationally efficient techniques for solving time-variable-order time-space fractional reaction-diffusion equations (tsfrde) using the finite difference scheme. We adopt the Coimbra variable order time fractional operator and variable order fractional Laplacian operator in space where both orders are functions of time. Because the fractional operator is nonlocal, it is challenging to efficiently deal with its long range dependence when using classical numerical techniques to solve such equations. The novelty of our method is that the numerical solution of the time-variable-order tsfrde is written in terms of a matrix function vector product at each time step. This product is approximated efficiently by the Lanczos method, which is a powerful iterative technique for approximating the action of a matrix function by projecting onto a Krylov subspace. Furthermore an adaptive preconditioner is constructed that dramatically reduces the size of the required Krylov subspaces and hence the overall computational cost. Numerical examples, including the variable-order fractional Fisher equation, are presented to demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the approach.