Space-time variation of malaria incidence in Yunnan province, China

Abstract Background Understanding spatio-temporal variation in malaria incidence provides a basis for effective disease control planning and monitoring. Methods Monthly surveillance data between 1991 and 2006 for Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria across 128 counties were assembled for Yunnan, a province of China with one of the highest burdens of malaria. County-level Bayesian Poisson regression models of incidence were constructed, with effects for rainfall, maximum temperature and temporal trend. The model also allowed for spatial variation in county-level incidence and temporal trend, and dependence between incidence in June–September and the preceding January–February. Results Models revealed strong associations between malaria incidence and both rainfall and maximum temperature. There was a significant association between incidence in June–September and the preceding January–February. Raw standardised morbidity ratios showed a high incidence in some counties bordering Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam, and counties in the Red River valley. Clusters of counties in south-western and northern Yunnan were identified that had high incidence not explained by climate. The overall trend in incidence decreased, but there was significant variation between counties. Conclusion Dependence between incidence in summer and the preceding January–February suggests a role of intrinsic host-pathogen dynamics. Incidence during the summer peak might be predictable based on incidence in January–February, facilitating malaria control planning, scaled months in advance to the magnitude of the summer malaria burden. Heterogeneities in county-level temporal trends suggest that reductions in the burden of malaria have been unevenly distributed throughout the province.

Bayesian versus frequentist statistical inference for investi gating a one-off cancer cluster reported to a health department

Background The problem of silent multiple comparisons is one of the most difficult statistical problems faced by scientists. It is a particular problem for investigating a one-off cancer cluster reported to a health department because any one of hundreds, or possibly thousands, of neighbourhoods, schools, or workplaces could have reported a cluster, which could have been for any one of several types of cancer or any one of several time periods. Methods This paper contrasts the frequentist approach with a Bayesian approach for dealing with silent multiple comparisons in the context of a one-off cluster reported to a health department. Two published cluster investigations were re-analysed using the Dunn-Sidak method to adjust frequentist p-values and confidence intervals for silent multiple comparisons. Bayesian methods were based on the Gamma distribution. Results Bayesian analysis with non-informative priors produced results similar to the frequentist analysis, and suggested that both clusters represented a statistical excess. In the frequentist framework, the statistical significance of both clusters was extremely sensitive to the number of silent multiple comparisons, which can only ever be a subjective "guesstimate". The Bayesian approach is also subjective: whether there is an apparent statistical excess depends on the specified prior. Conclusion In cluster investigations, the frequentist approach is just as subjective as the Bayesian approach, but the Bayesian approach is less ambitious in that it treats the analysis as a synthesis of data and personal judgements (possibly poor ones), rather than objective reality. Bayesian analysis is (arguably) a useful tool to support complicated decision-making, because it makes the uncertainty associated with silent multiple comparisons explicit.

Indoor environments : design, productivity and health

In a typical large office block, by far the largest lifetime expense is the salaries of the workers - 84% for salaries compared with : office rent (14%), total energy (1%), and maintenance (1%). The key drive for business is therefore the maximisation of the productivity of the employees as this is the largest cost. Reducing total energy use by 50% will not produce the same financial return as 1% productivity improvement? The aim of the project which led to this review of the literature was to understand as far as possible the state of knowledge internationally about how the indoor environment of buildings does influence occupants and the impact this influence may have on the total cost of ownership of buildings. Therefore one of the main focus areas for the literature has been identifying whether there is a link between productivity and health of building occupants and the indoor environment. Productivity is both easy to define - the ratio of output to input - but at the same time very hard to measure in a relatively small environment where individual contributions can influence the results, in particular social interactions. Health impacts from a building environment are also difficult to measure well, as establishing casual links between the indoor environment and a particular health issue can be very difficult. All of those issues are canvassed in the literature reported here. Humans are surprisingly adaptive to different physical environments, but the workplace should not test the limits of human adaptability. Physiological models of stress, for example, accept that the body has a finite amount of adaptive energy available to cope with stress. The importance of, and this projects' focus on, the physical setting within the integrated system of high performance workplaces, means this literature survey explores research which has been undertaken on both physical and social aspects of the built environment. The literature has been largely classified in several different ways, according to the classification scheme shown below. There is still some inconsistency in the use of keywords, which is being addressed and greater uniformity will be developed for a CD version of this literature, enabling searching using this classification scheme.

Final report : offsite manufacture in Australia Final report off-site manufacture in Australia

Off-site Manufacture (OSM) has long been recognised, both in Australia and internationally, as offering numerous benefits to all parties in the construction process. More importantly, it is recognised as a key vehicle for driving improvement within the construction industry. The uptake of OSM in construction is however limited, despite well documented benefits. The research aims to determine the ‘state-of-the-art’ of OSM in Australia. It confirms the benefits and identifies the real and perceived barriers to the widespread adoption of OSM. Further the project identifies opportunities for future investment and research. Although numerous reports have been produced in the UK on the state of OSM adoption within that region, no prominent studies exist for the Australian context. This scoping study is an essential component upon which to build any initiatives that can take advantage of the benefits of OSM in construction. The Construction 2020 report predicted that OSM is set to increase in use over the next 5-15 years, further justifying the need for such a study. The long-term goal of this study is to contribute to the improvement of the Australian construction industry through a realisation of the potential benefits of OSM.

Sydney Opera House – FM exemplar project

The Sydney Opera House Facilities Management Exemplar Project (SOH FM Exemplar Project) aims to develop innovative research on facility management (FM) with the focus on asset maintenance. The project utilises the Sydney Opera House (SOH), one of most unique buildings in Australia, to research and create innovative FM strategies and models that will have a direct beneficial role for the Australian facilities management industry as well as the economy as a whole. The procurement, benchmarking and digitisation are crucial in improving the performance of FM. The procurement develops strategic plan and deployment framework enabling products, services, etc. meet objectives of performance, economic, environment, etc. Benchmarking is a technology used to compare practice and assess performance against the competitors recognised as industry leaders who achieve most successful activities in the field. Digitisation develops digitized FM modelling that facilitates the integration and automation of facility management. The project carries out the research on all the three areas as well as the relationship between them. It aims to develop an integrated approach for the improvement of FM performance.

Open Specification for BIM : Sydney Opera House Case Study

Executive Summary The objective of this report was to use the Sydney Opera House as a case study of the application of Building Information Modelling (BIM). The Sydney opera House is a complex, large building with very irregular building configuration, that makes it a challenging test. A number of key concerns are evident at SOH: • the building structure is complex, and building service systems - already the major cost of ongoing maintenance - are undergoing technology change, with new computer based services becoming increasingly important. • the current “documentation” of the facility is comprised of several independent systems, some overlapping and is inadequate to service current and future services required • the building has reached a milestone age in terms of the condition and maintainability of key public areas and service systems, functionality of spaces and longer term strategic management. • many business functions such as space or event management require up-to-date information of the facility that are currently inadequately delivered, expensive and time consuming to update and deliver to customers. • major building upgrades are being planned that will put considerable strain on existing Facilities Portfolio services, and their capacity to manage them effectively While some of these concerns are unique to the House, many will be common to larger commercial and institutional portfolios. The work described here supported a complementary task which sought to identify if a building information model – an integrated building database – could be created, that would support asset & facility management functions (see Sydney Opera House – FM Exemplar Project, Report Number: 2005-001-C-4 Building Information Modelling for FM at Sydney Opera House), a business strategy that has been well demonstrated. The development of the BIMSS - Open Specification for BIM has been surprisingly straightforward. The lack of technical difficulties in converting the House’s existing conventions and standards to the new model based environment can be related to three key factors: • SOH Facilities Portfolio – the internal group responsible for asset and facility management - have already well established building and documentation policies in place. The setting and adherence to well thought out operational standards has been based on the need to create an environment that is understood by all users and that addresses the major business needs of the House. • The second factor is the nature of the IFC Model Specification used to define the BIM protocol. The IFC standard is based on building practice and nomenclature, widely used in the construction industries across the globe. For example the nomenclature of building parts – eg ifcWall, corresponds to our normal terminology, but extends the traditional drawing environment currently used for design and documentation. This demonstrates that the international IFC model accurately represents local practice for building data representation and management. • a BIM environment sets up opportunities for innovative processes that can exploit the rich data in the model and improve services and functions for the House: for example several high-level processes have been identified that could benefit from standardized Building Information Models such as maintenance processes using engineering data, business processes using scheduling, venue access, security data and benchmarking processes using building performance data. The new technology matches business needs for current and new services. The adoption of IFC compliant applications opens the way forward for shared building model collaboration and new processes, a significant new focus of the BIM standards. In summary, SOH current building standards have been successfully drafted for a BIM environment and are confidently expected to be fully developed when BIM is adopted operationally by SOH. These BIM standards and their application to the Opera House are intended as a template for other organisations to adopt for the own procurement and facility management activities. Appendices provide an overview of the IFC Integrated Object Model and an understanding IFC Model Data.

Building Information Modelling for FM at Sydney Opera House

“SOH see significant benefit in digitising its drawings and operation and maintenance manuals. Since SOH do not currently have digital models of the Opera House structure or other components, there is an opportunity for this national case study to promote the application of Digital Facility Modelling using standardized Building Information Models (BIM)”. The digital modelling element of this project examined the potential of building information models for Facility Management focusing on the following areas: • The re-usability of building information for FM purposes • BIM as an Integrated information model for facility management • Extendibility of the BIM to cope with business specific requirements • Commercial facility management software using standardised building information models • The ability to add (organisation specific) intelligence to the model • A roadmap for SOH to adopt BIM for FM The project has established that BIM – building information modelling - is an appropriate and potentially beneficial technology for the storage of integrated building, maintenance and management data for SOH. Based on the attributes of a BIM, several advantages can be envisioned: consistency in the data, intelligence in the model, multiple representations, source of information for intelligent programs and intelligent queries. The IFC – open building exchange standard – specification provides comprehensive support for asset and facility management functions, and offers new management, collaboration and procurement relationships based on sharing of intelligent building data. The major advantages of using an open standard are: information can be read and manipulated by any compliant software, reduced user “lock in” to proprietary solutions, third party software can be the “best of breed” to suit the process and scope at hand, standardised BIM solutions consider the wider implications of information exchange outside the scope of any particular vendor, information can be archived as ASCII files for archival purposes, and data quality can be enhanced as the now single source of users’ information has improved accuracy, correctness, currency, completeness and relevance. SOH current building standards have been successfully drafted for a BIM environment and are confidently expected to be fully developed when BIM is adopted operationally by SOH. There have been remarkably few technical difficulties in converting the House’s existing conventions and standards to the new model based environment. This demonstrates that the IFC model represents world practice for building data representation and management (see Sydney Opera House – FM Exemplar Project Report Number 2005-001-C-3, Open Specification for BIM: Sydney Opera House Case Study). Availability of FM applications based on BIM is in its infancy but focussed systems are already in operation internationally and show excellent prospects for implementation systems at SOH. In addition to the generic benefits of standardised BIM described above, the following FM specific advantages can be expected from this new integrated facilities management environment: faster and more effective processes, controlled whole life costs and environmental data, better customer service, common operational picture for current and strategic planning, visual decision-making and a total ownership cost model. Tests with partial BIM data – provided by several of SOH’s current consultants – show that the creation of a SOH complete model is realistic, but subject to resolution of compliance and detailed functional support by participating software applications. The showcase has demonstrated successfully that IFC based exchange is possible with several common BIM based applications through the creation of a new partial model of the building. Data exchanged has been geometrically accurate (the SOH building structure represents some of the most complex building elements) and supports rich information describing the types of objects, with their properties and relationships.

Procurement Case Study and Decision-making Strategies

Objectives The procurement research of Sydney Opera House FM Exemplar Project aims to develop innovative methods and guidelines for the procurement of FM services, applicable to iconic and / or performing arts centre facilities, or facilities with similar FM functions. The initial procurement report in June 2005 analysed the strategic objectives and operational requirements that provide ‘demand statements’ as evaluation criteria in the service procurement process. The subsequent interim procurement report in September 2005 discussed the elements contributing to the criteria for decision-making in the service procurement process. This procurement report concentrates on the research on procurement strategies and innovative methods using a case study approach. The objectives of this report are: • to investigate service procurement methods and process in iconic and/or performing arts centre facilities; • to showcase FM innovation in Sydney Opera House through a case study; • to establish a preliminary decision-making framework and guidelines for selection of appropriate FM procurement routes to provide a useful model for FM community. Findings Findings from this procurement research are presented as follows. • FM innovation and experience of Sydney Opera House • Innovative procurement methods and processes, drawn from a case study of Sydney Opera House as exemplar • An integrated performance framework to link maintenance service functions to high level organisational objective and strategies • Procurement methods and contract outcomes, focusing on building maintenance and cleaning services of Sydney Opera House • Multi-dimensional assessment of Service Providers • General decision-making strategies and guidelines for selection of appropriate FM procurement routes Further Research Whilst the Sydney Opera House case study emphasises the experience of Sydney Opera House, a study of procurement strategies and methods from published research and FM good practice will supply facilities managers with alternative procurement routes. Further research on the procurement theme will develop a final decision-making model for the procurement of FM services, drawn from the evaluation of the case study outcomes, as well as FM good practice and findings from current published research.

Benchmarking Research Report

This benchmarking research report builds on the previous benchmarking review (Report 2005-001-C-1) and presents the benchmarking data collection and framework developments thus far. The objective is to deliver a benchmarking framework and recommendations on implementation of best practice on asset maintenance. The FM Exemplar Project using the Sydney Opera House has conducted a two (2) stage survey of iconic facilities. The benchmarking team has been led by Rider Hunt Terotech with researchers from the CSIRO and The University of Sydney.

Digital Modelling

This Digital Modelling Report incorporates the previous research completed for the FM Exemplar Project utilising the Sydney Opera House as a case study. The research has demonstrated significant benefits in digitising design documentation and operational and maintenance manuals. Since Sydney Opera House do not have digital models of its structure, there is an opportunity to investigate the application of Digital Facility Modelling using standardised Building Information Models (BIM). The digital modelling research project has examined the potential of standardised building information models to develop a digital facility model supporting facilities management (FM). The focus of this investigation was on the following areas: • The re-usability of standardised building information models (BIM) for FM purposes. • The potential of BIM as an information framework acting as integrator for various FM data sources. • The extendibility and flexibility of the BIM to cope with business specific data and requirements. • Commercial FM software using standardised building information models. • The ability to add (organisation-specific) intelligence to the model. • A roadmap for Sydney Opera House to adopt BIM for FM.

Services Procurement

This Services Procurement Report incorporates the previous benchmarking research and aims to develop innovative methods and guidelines for the procurement of FM services, applicable to iconic and / or performing arts centre facilities, or facilities with similar FM functions. The FM Exemplar Project utilising the Sydney Opera House produced its initial procurement report in June 2005 which analysed the strategic objectives and operational requirements that provide ‘demand statements’ as evaluation criteria in the service procurement process. The subsequent interim procurement report in September 2005 discussed the elements contributing to the criteria for decision-making in the service procurement process. This procurement report concentrates on the research on procurement strategies and innovative methods using a case study approach. The objectives of this report are to: Investigate service procurement methods and process in iconic and/or performing arts centre facilities; Showcase FM innovation in Sydney Opera House through a case study; Establish a preliminary decision-making framework and guidelines for selection of appropriate FM procurement routes to provide a useful model for FM community

Business Drivers for BIM

his report describes in detail a project aimed at providing a better understanding of the business drivers and barriers to the adoption of Building Information Modelling (BIM) in the Architecture Engineering and Construction (AEC) and facility management (FM) industry sectors. The objectives of the project were to investigate the nature of economic, process and industry constraints to BIM adoption and then - if possible - to identify business strategies, and cost/benefit models that may support adoption of BIM in AEC/FM industry. The research was based on case studies from the property, construction and facility management sectors as well as other industries and interviews with business leaders and users of advanced applications of CAD in the industry.

Model Based Estimating System for Civil Concrete Structures

An earlier CRC-CI project on ‘automatic estimating’ (AE) has shown the key benefit of model-based design methodologies in building design and construction to be the provision of timely quantitative cost evaluations. Furthermore, using AE during design improves design options, and results in improved design turn-around times, better design quality and/or lower costs. However, AEs for civil engineering structures do not exist; and research partners in the CRC-CI expressed interest in exploring the development of such a process. This document reports on these investigations. The central objective of the study was to evaluate the benefits and costs of developing an AE for concrete civil engineering works. By studying existing documents and through interviews with design engineers, contractors and estimators, we have established that current civil engineering practices (mainly roads/bridges) do not use model-based planning/design. Drawings are executed in 2D and only completed at the end of lengthy planning/design project management lifecycle stages. We have also determined that estimating plays two important, but different roles. The first is part of project management (which we have called macro level estimating). Estimating in this domain sets project budgets, controls quality delivery and contains costs. The second role is estimating during planning/design (micro level estimating). The difference between the two roles is that the former is performed at the end of various lifecycle stages, whereas the latter is performed at any suitable time during planning/design.

Capital Works Procurement: The Selection of a Building Procurement Method

The determination of the most appropriate procurement method for capital works projects is a challenging task for the Department of Housing and Works (DHW) and other Western Australian State Government Agencies because of the array of assessment criteria that are considered and the procurement methods that are available. A number of different procurement systems can be used to deliver capital works projects such a traditional, design and construct and management. Sub-classifications of these systems have proliferated and continue to emerge in response to market demands. The selection of an inappropriate procurement method may lead to undesirable project outcomes. To facilitate DHW in selecting an appropriate procurement method for its capital works projects, a six step procurement method selection process is presented. The characteristics of the most common forms of procurement method used in Australia are presented. Case studies where procurement methods have been used for specific types of capital works in Western Australia are offered to provide a reference point and learning opportunity for procurement method selection.

Building procurement methods

A plethora of methods for procuring building projects are available to meet the needs of clients. Deciding what method to use for a given project is a difficult and challenging task as a client’s objectives and priorities need to marry with the selected method so as to improve the likelihood of the project being procured successfully. The decision as to what procurement system to use should be made as early as possible and underpinned by the client’s business case for the project. The risks and how they can potentially affect the client’s business should also be considered. In this report, the need for client’s to develop a procurement strategy, which outlines the key means by which the objectives of the project are to be achieved is emphasised. Once a client has established a business case for a project, appointed a principal advisor, determined their requirements and brief, then consideration as to which procurement method to be adopted should be made. An understanding of the characteristics of various procurement options is required before a recommendation can be made to a client. Procurement systems can be categorised as traditional, design and construct, management and collaborative. The characteristics of these systems along with the procurement methods commonly used are described. The main advantages and disadvantages, and circumstances under which a system could be considered applicable for a given project are also identified.