Reliability of partial ambiguity fixing with multiple GNSS constellations

Reliable ambiguity resolution (AR) is essential to Real-Time Kinematic (RTK) positioning and its applications, since incorrect ambiguity fixing can lead to largely biased positioning solutions. A partial ambiguity fixing technique is developed to improve the reliability of AR, involving partial ambiguity decorrelation (PAD) and partial ambiguity resolution (PAR). Decorrelation transformation could substantially amplify the biases in the phase measurements. The purpose of PAD is to find the optimum trade-off between decorrelation and worst-case bias amplification. The concept of PAR refers to the case where only a subset of the ambiguities can be fixed correctly to their integers in the integer least-squares (ILS) estimation system at high success rates. As a result, RTK solutions can be derived from these integer-fixed phase measurements. This is meaningful provided that the number of reliably resolved phase measurements is sufficiently large for least-square estimation of RTK solutions as well. Considering the GPS constellation alone, partially fixed measurements are often insufficient for positioning. The AR reliability is usually characterised by the AR success rate. In this contribution an AR validation decision matrix is firstly introduced to understand the impact of success rate. Moreover the AR risk probability is included into a more complete evaluation of the AR reliability. We use 16 ambiguity variance-covariance matrices with different levels of success rate to analyse the relation between success rate and AR risk probability. Next, the paper examines during the PAD process, how a bias in one measurement is propagated and amplified onto many others, leading to more than one wrong integer and to affect the success probability. Furthermore, the paper proposes a partial ambiguity fixing procedure with a predefined success rate criterion and ratio-test in the ambiguity validation process. In this paper, the Galileo constellation data is tested with simulated observations. Numerical results from our experiment clearly demonstrate that only when the computed success rate is very high, the AR validation can provide decisions about the correctness of AR which are close to real world, with both low AR risk and false alarm probabilities. The results also indicate that the PAR procedure can automatically chose adequate number of ambiguities to fix at given high-success rate from the multiple constellations instead of fixing all the ambiguities. This is a benefit that multiple GNSS constellations can offer.

Evaluation of new and existing confidence measures for stereo matching

This paper outlines existing matching diagnostics, which may be used for identifying invalid matches and estimating the probability of a correct match. In addition, it proposes a new diagnostic for error prediction which can be used with the rank and census transforms. Both the existing and the new diagnostics have been evaluated and compared for a number of test images. In each case, a confidence estimate was computed for every location of the disparity map, and disparities having a low confidence estimate removed from the disparity map. Collectively, these confidence estimates may be termed a confidence map. Such information would be useful for potential applications of stereo vision such as automation and navigation.

Cost effectiveness of nutrition support in the prevention of pressure ulcer in hospitals

Background/objectives This study estimates the economic outcomes of a nutrition intervention to at-risk patients compared with standard care in the prevention of pressure ulcer. Subjects/methods Statistical models were developed to predict ‘cases of pressure ulcer avoided’, ‘number of bed days gained’ and ‘change to economic costs’ in public hospitals in 2002–2003 in Queensland, Australia. Input parameters were specified and appropriate probability distributions fitted for: number of discharges per annum; incidence rate for pressure ulcer; independent effect of pressure ulcer on length of stay; cost of a bed day; change in risk in developing a pressure ulcer associated with nutrition support; annual cost of the provision of a nutrition support intervention for at-risk patients. A total of 1000 random re-samples were made and the results expressed as output probability distributions. Results The model predicts a mean 2896 (s.d. 632) cases of pressure ulcer avoided; 12 397 (s.d. 4491) bed days released and corresponding mean economic cost saving of euros 2 869 526 (s.d. 2 078 715) with a nutrition support intervention, compared with standard care. Conclusion Nutrition intervention is predicted to be a cost-effective approach in the prevention of pressure ulcer in at-risk patients.

Evaluation of the Suchey-Brooks Method of age estimation in an Australian subpopulation using computed tomography of the pubic symphyseal surface

Despite the prominent use of the Suchey-Brooks (S-B) method of age estimation in forensic anthropological practice, it is subject to intrinsic limitations, with reports of differential inter-population error rates between geographical locations. This study assessed the accuracy of the S-B method to a contemporary adult population in Queensland, Australia and provides robust age parameters calibrated for our population. Three-dimensional surface reconstructions were generated from computed tomography scans of the pubic symphysis of male and female Caucasian individuals aged 15–70 years (n = 195) in Amira® and Rapidform®. Error was analyzed on the basis of bias, inaccuracy and percentage correct classification for left and right symphyseal surfaces. Application of transition analysis and Chi-square statistics demonstrated 63.9% and 69.7% correct age classification associated with the left symphyseal surface of Australian males and females, respectively, using the S-B method. Using Bayesian statistics, probability density distributions for each S-B phase were calculated, providing refined age parameters for our population. Mean inaccuracies of 6.77 (±2.76) and 8.28 (±4.41) years were reported for the left surfaces of males and females, respectively; with positive biases for younger individuals (<55 years) and negative biases in older individuals. Significant sexual dimorphism in the application of the S-B method was observed; and asymmetry in phase classification of the pubic symphysis was a frequent phenomenon. These results recommend that the S-B method should be applied with caution in medico-legal death investigations of Queensland skeletal remains and warrant further investigation of reliable age estimation techniques.

On being balanced in an unbalanced world

This paper examines the case of a procurement auction for a single project, in which the breakdown of the winning bid into its component items determines the value of payments subsequently made to bidder as the work progresses. Unbalanced bidding, or bid skewing, involves the uneven distribution of mark-up among the component items in such a way as to attempt to derive increased benefit to the unbalancer but without involving any change in the total bid. One form of unbalanced bidding for example, termed Front Loading (FL), is thought to be widespread in practice. This involves overpricing the work items that occur early in the project and underpricing the work items that occur later in the project in order to enhance the bidder's cash flow. Naturally, auctioners attempt to protect themselves from the effects of unbalancing—typically reserving the right to reject a bid that has been detected as unbalanced. As a result, models have been developed to both unbalance bids and detect unbalanced bids but virtually nothing is known of their use, success or otherwise. This is of particular concern for the detection methods as, without testing, there is no way of knowing the extent to which unbalanced bids are remaining undetected or balanced bids are being falsely detected as unbalanced. This paper reports on a simulation study aimed at demonstrating the likely effects of unbalanced bid detection models in a deterministic environment involving FL unbalancing in a Texas DOT detection setting, in which bids are deemed to be unbalanced if an item exceeds a maximum (or fails to reach a minimum) ‘cut-off’ value determined by the Texas method. A proportion of bids are automatically and maximally unbalanced over a long series of simulated contract projects and the profits and detection rates of both the balancers and unbalancers are compared. The results show that, as expected, the balanced bids are often incorrectly detected as unbalanced, with the rate of (mis)detection increasing with the proportion of FL bidders in the auction. It is also shown that, while the profit for balanced bidders remains the same irrespective of the number of FL bidders involved, the FL bidder's profit increases with the greater proportion of FL bidders present in the auction. Sensitivity tests show the results to be generally robust, with (mis)detection rates increasing further when there are fewer bidders in the auction and when more data are averaged to determine the baseline value, but being smaller or larger with increased cut-off values and increased cost and estimate variability depending on the number of FL bidders involved. The FL bidder's expected benefit from unbalancing, on the other hand, increases, when there are fewer bidders in the auction. It also increases when the cut-off rate and discount rate is increased, when there is less variability in the costs and their estimates, and when less data are used in setting the baseline values.

Ultimate limit states design of concrete railway sleepers

The railway industry has been slow to adopt limit states principles in the structural design of concrete sleepers for its tracks, despite the global take up of this form of design for almost every other type of structural element. Concrete sleeper design is still based on limiting stresses but is widely perceived by track engineers to lead to untapped reserves of strength in the sleepers. Limit design is a more rational philosophy, especially where it is based on the ultimate dynamic capacity of the concrete sleepers. The paper describes the development of equations and factors for a limit design methodology for concrete sleepers in flexure using a probabilistic evaluation of sleeper loading. The new method will also permit a cogent, defensible means of establishing the true capacity of the billions of concrete sleepers that are currently in-track around the world, leading to better utilisation of track infrastructure. The paper demonstrates how significant cost savings may be achieved by track owners.

On the diversity analysis of the sequential slotted amplify-decode-and-forward protocol

In this paper, we review the sequential slotted amplify-decode-and-forward (SADF) protocol with half-duplex single-antenna and evaluate its performance in terms of pairwise error probability (PEP). We obtain the PEP upper bound of the protocol and find out that the achievable diversity order of the protocol is two with arbitrary number of relay terminals. To achieve the maximum achievable diversity order, we propose a simple precoder that is easy to implement with any number of relay terminals and transmission slots. Simulation results show that the proposed precoder achieves the maximum achievable diversity order and has similar BER performance compared to some of the existing precoders.

Are academics messy? Testing the broken windows theory with a field experiment in the work environment

We test the broken windows theory using a field experiment in a shared area of an academic workplace(the department common room). More specifically, we explore academics’ and postgraduate students’ behavior under an order condition (a clean environment) and a disorder condition (a messy environment). We find strong evidence that signs of disorderly behavior trigger littering: In 59% of the cases, subjects litter in the disorder treatment as compared to 18% in the order condition. These results remain robust in a multivariate analysis even when controlling for a large set of factors not directly examined by previous studies. Overall, when academic staff and postgraduate students observe that others have violated the social norm of keeping the common room clean, all else being equal, the probability of littering increases by around 40%.

Utilising Reliability and Condition Monitoring Data for Asset Health Prognosis

The ability to forecast machinery health is vital to reducing maintenance costs, operation downtime and safety hazards. Recent advances in condition monitoring technologies have given rise to a number of prognostic models which attempt to forecast machinery health based on condition data such as vibration measurements. This paper demonstrates how the population characteristics and condition monitoring data (both complete and suspended) of historical items can be integrated for training an intelligent agent to predict asset health multiple steps ahead. The model consists of a feed-forward neural network whose training targets are asset survival probabilities estimated using a variation of the Kaplan–Meier estimator and a degradation-based failure probability density function estimator. The trained network is capable of estimating the future survival probabilities when a series of asset condition readings are inputted. The output survival probabilities collectively form an estimated survival curve. Pump data from a pulp and paper mill were used for model validation and comparison. The results indicate that the proposed model can predict more accurately as well as further ahead than similar models which neglect population characteristics and suspended data. This work presents a compelling concept for longer-range fault prognosis utilising available information more fully and accurately.

Optimising preventive maintenance strategy for production Lines

Preventive Maintenance (PM) is often applied to improve the reliability of production lines. A Split System Approach (SSA) based methodology is presented to assist in making optimal PM decisions for serial production lines. The methodology treats a production line as a complex series system with multiple (imperfect) PM actions over multiple intervals. The conditional and overall reliability of the entire production line over these multiple PM intervals are hierarchically calculated using SSA, and provide a foundation for cost analysis. Both risk-related cost and maintenance-related cost are factored into the methodology as either deterministic or random variables. This SSA based methodology enables Asset Management (AM) decisions to be optimised considering a variety of factors including failure probability, failure cost, maintenance cost, PM performance, and the type of PM strategy. The application of this new methodology and an evaluation of the effects of these factors on PM decisions are demonstrated using an example. The results of this work show that the performance of a PM strategy can be measured by its Total Expected Cost Index (TECI). The optimal PM interval is dependent on TECI, PM performance and types of PM strategies. These factors are interrelated. Generally, it was found that a trade-off between reliability and the number of PM actions needs to be made so that one can minimise Total Expected Cost (TEC) for asset maintenance.

Machine prognostics based on health state estimation using SVM

The ability to accurately predict the remaining useful life of machine components is critical for machine continuous operation, and can also improve productivity and enhance system safety. In condition-based maintenance (CBM), maintenance is performed based on information collected through condition monitoring and an assessment of the machine health. Effective diagnostics and prognostics are important aspects of CBM for maintenance engineers to schedule a repair and to acquire replacement components before the components actually fail. All machine components are subjected to degradation processes in real environments and they have certain failure characteristics which can be related to the operating conditions. This paper describes a technique for accurate assessment of the remnant life of machines based on health state probability estimation and involving historical knowledge embedded in the closed loop diagnostics and prognostics systems. The technique uses a Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier as a tool for estimating health state probability of machine degradation, which can affect the accuracy of prediction. To validate the feasibility of the proposed model, real life historical data from bearings of High Pressure Liquefied Natural Gas (HP-LNG) pumps were analysed and used to obtain the optimal prediction of remaining useful life. The results obtained were very encouraging and showed that the proposed prognostic system based on health state probability estimation has the potential to be used as an estimation tool for remnant life prediction in industrial machinery.

A Reliability test system for educational purposes-basic data

The IEEE Subcommittee on the Application of Probability Methods (APM) published the IEEE Reliability Test System (RTS) [1] in 1979. This system provides a consistent and generally acceptable set of data that can be used both in generation capacity and in composite system reliability evaluation [2,3]. The test system provides a basis for the comparison of results obtained by different people using different methods. Prior to its publication, there was no general agreement on either the system or the data that should be used to demonstrate or test various techniques developed to conduct reliability studies. Development of reliability assessment techniques and programs are very dependent on the intent behind the development as the experience of one power utility with their system may be quite different from that of another utility. The development and the utilization of a reliability program are, therefore, greatly influenced by the experience of a utlity and the intent of the system manager, planner and designer conducting the reliability studies. The IEEE-RTS has proved to be extremely valuable in highlighting and comparing the capabilities (or incapabilities) of programs used in reliability studies, the differences in the perception of various power utilities and the differences in the solution techniques. The IEEE-RTS contains a reasonably large power network which can be difficult to use for initial studies in an educational environment.

A Reliability test system for educational purposes-basic data

The IEEE Reliability Test System (RTS) developed by the Application of Probability Method Subcommittee has been used to compare and test a wide range of generating capacity and composite system evaluation techniques and subsequent digital computer programs. A basic reliability test system is presented which has evolved from the reliability education and research programs conducted by the Power System Research Group at the University of Saskatchewan. The basic system data necessary for adequacy evaluation at the generation and composite generation and transmission system levels are presented together with the fundamental data required to conduct reliability-cost/reliability-worth evaluation

Application of clustering technique to generating capacity state model for reliability evaluation

Capacity probability models of generating units are commonly used in many power system reliability studies, at hierarchical level one (HLI). Analytical modelling of a generating system with many units or generating units with many derated states in a system, can result in an extensive number of states in the capacity model. Limitations on available memory and computational time of present computer facilities can pose difficulties for assessment of such systems in many studies. A cluster procedure using the nearest centroid sorting method was used for IEEE-RTS load model. The application proved to be very effective in producing a highly similar model with substantially fewer states. This paper presents an extended application of the clustering method to include capacity probability representation. A series of sensitivity studies are illustrated using IEEE-RTS generating system and load models. The loss of load and energy expectations (LOLE, LOEE), are used as indicators to evaluate the application

Asset health prediction using the explicit hazard model

The ability to estimate the asset reliability and the probability of failure is critical to reducing maintenance costs, operation downtime, and safety hazards. Predicting the survival time and the probability of failure in future time is an indispensable requirement in prognostics and asset health management. In traditional reliability models, the lifetime of an asset is estimated using failure event data, alone; however, statistically sufficient failure event data are often difficult to attain in real-life situations due to poor data management, effective preventive maintenance, and the small population of identical assets in use. Condition indicators and operating environment indicators are two types of covariate data that are normally obtained in addition to failure event and suspended data. These data contain significant information about the state and health of an asset. Condition indicators reflect the level of degradation of assets while operating environment indicators accelerate or decelerate the lifetime of assets. When these data are available, an alternative approach to the traditional reliability analysis is the modelling of condition indicators and operating environment indicators and their failure-generating mechanisms using a covariate-based hazard model. The literature review indicates that a number of covariate-based hazard models have been developed. All of these existing covariate-based hazard models were developed based on the principle theory of the Proportional Hazard Model (PHM). However, most of these models have not attracted much attention in the field of machinery prognostics. Moreover, due to the prominence of PHM, attempts at developing alternative models, to some extent, have been stifled, although a number of alternative models to PHM have been suggested. The existing covariate-based hazard models neglect to fully utilise three types of asset health information (including failure event data (i.e. observed and/or suspended), condition data, and operating environment data) into a model to have more effective hazard and reliability predictions. In addition, current research shows that condition indicators and operating environment indicators have different characteristics and they are non-homogeneous covariate data. Condition indicators act as response variables (or dependent variables) whereas operating environment indicators act as explanatory variables (or independent variables). However, these non-homogenous covariate data were modelled in the same way for hazard prediction in the existing covariate-based hazard models. The related and yet more imperative question is how both of these indicators should be effectively modelled and integrated into the covariate-based hazard model. This work presents a new approach for addressing the aforementioned challenges. The new covariate-based hazard model, which termed as Explicit Hazard Model (EHM), explicitly and effectively incorporates all three available asset health information into the modelling of hazard and reliability predictions and also drives the relationship between actual asset health and condition measurements as well as operating environment measurements. The theoretical development of the model and its parameter estimation method are demonstrated in this work. EHM assumes that the baseline hazard is a function of the both time and condition indicators. Condition indicators provide information about the health condition of an asset; therefore they update and reform the baseline hazard of EHM according to the health state of asset at given time t. Some examples of condition indicators are the vibration of rotating machinery, the level of metal particles in engine oil analysis, and wear in a component, to name but a few. Operating environment indicators in this model are failure accelerators and/or decelerators that are included in the covariate function of EHM and may increase or decrease the value of the hazard from the baseline hazard. These indicators caused by the environment in which an asset operates, and that have not been explicitly identified by the condition indicators (e.g. Loads, environmental stresses, and other dynamically changing environment factors). While the effects of operating environment indicators could be nought in EHM; condition indicators could emerge because these indicators are observed and measured as long as an asset is operational and survived. EHM has several advantages over the existing covariate-based hazard models. One is this model utilises three different sources of asset health data (i.e. population characteristics, condition indicators, and operating environment indicators) to effectively predict hazard and reliability. Another is that EHM explicitly investigates the relationship between condition and operating environment indicators associated with the hazard of an asset. Furthermore, the proportionality assumption, which most of the covariate-based hazard models suffer from it, does not exist in EHM. According to the sample size of failure/suspension times, EHM is extended into two forms: semi-parametric and non-parametric. The semi-parametric EHM assumes a specified lifetime distribution (i.e. Weibull distribution) in the form of the baseline hazard. However, for more industry applications, due to sparse failure event data of assets, the analysis of such data often involves complex distributional shapes about which little is known. Therefore, to avoid the restrictive assumption of the semi-parametric EHM about assuming a specified lifetime distribution for failure event histories, the non-parametric EHM, which is a distribution free model, has been developed. The development of EHM into two forms is another merit of the model. A case study was conducted using laboratory experiment data to validate the practicality of the both semi-parametric and non-parametric EHMs. The performance of the newly-developed models is appraised using the comparison amongst the estimated results of these models and the other existing covariate-based hazard models. The comparison results demonstrated that both the semi-parametric and non-parametric EHMs outperform the existing covariate-based hazard models. Future research directions regarding to the new parameter estimation method in the case of time-dependent effects of covariates and missing data, application of EHM in both repairable and non-repairable systems using field data, and a decision support model in which linked to the estimated reliability results, are also identified.