The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of exercise referral schemes: A systematic review and economic evaluation

- Background Exercise referral schemes (ERS) aim to identify inactive adults in the primary-care setting. The GP or health-care professional then refers the patient to a third-party service, with this service taking responsibility for prescribing and monitoring an exercise programme tailored to the needs of the individual. - Objective To assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of ERS for people with a diagnosed medical condition known to benefit from physical activity (PA). The scope of this report was broadened to consider individuals without a diagnosed condition who are sedentary. - Data sources MEDLINE; EMBASE; PsycINFO; The Cochrane Library, ISI Web of Science; SPORTDiscus and ongoing trial registries were searched (from 1990 to October 2009) and included study references were checked. - Methods Systematic reviews: the effectiveness of ERS, predictors of ERS uptake and adherence, and the cost-effectiveness of ERS; and the development of a decision-analytic economic model to assess cost-effectiveness of ERS. - Results Seven randomised controlled trials (UK, n = 5; non-UK, n = 2) met the effectiveness inclusion criteria, five comparing ERS with usual care, two compared ERS with an alternative PA intervention, and one to an ERS plus a self-determination theory (SDT) intervention. In intention-to-treat analysis, compared with usual care, there was weak evidence of an increase in the number of ERS participants who achieved a self-reported 90-150 minutes of at least moderate-intensity PA per week at 6-12 months' follow-up [pooled relative risk (RR) 1.11, 95% confidence interval 0.99 to 1.25]. There was no consistent evidence of a difference between ERS and usual care in the duration of moderate/vigorous intensity and total PA or other outcomes, for example physical fitness, serum lipids, health-related quality of life (HRQoL). There was no between-group difference in outcomes between ERS and alternative PA interventions or ERS plus a SDT intervention. None of the included trials separately reported outcomes in individuals with medical diagnoses. Fourteen observational studies and five randomised controlled trials provided a numerical assessment of ERS uptake and adherence (UK, n = 16; non-UK, n = 3). Women and older people were more likely to take up ERS but women, when compared with men, were less likely to adhere. The four previous economic evaluations identified suggest ERS to be a cost-effective intervention. Indicative incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) estimates for ERS for various scenarios were based on a de novo model-based economic evaluation. Compared with usual care, the mean incremental cost for ERS was £169 and the mean incremental QALY was 0.008, with the base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio at £20,876 per QALY in sedentary people without a medical condition and a cost per QALY of £14,618 in sedentary obese individuals, £12,834 in sedentary hypertensive patients, and £8414 for sedentary individuals with depression. Estimates of cost-effectiveness were highly sensitive to plausible variations in the RR for change in PA and cost of ERS. - Limitations We found very limited evidence of the effectiveness of ERS. The estimates of the cost-effectiveness of ERS are based on a simple analytical framework. The economic evaluation reports small differences in costs and effects, and findings highlight the wide range of uncertainty associated with the estimates of effectiveness and the impact of effectiveness on HRQoL. No data were identified as part of the effectiveness review to allow for adjustment of the effect of ERS in different populations. - Conclusions There remains considerable uncertainty as to the effectiveness of ERS for increasing activity, fitness or health indicators or whether they are an efficient use of resources in sedentary people without a medical diagnosis. We failed to identify any trial-based evidence of the effectiveness of ERS in those with a medical diagnosis. Future work should include randomised controlled trials assessing the cinical effectiveness and cost-effectivenesss of ERS in disease groups that may benefit from PA. - Funding The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

The cost-effectiveness of exercise referral schemes

Background Exercise referral schemes (ERS) aim to identify inactive adults in the primary care setting. The primary care professional refers the patient to a third party service, with this service taking responsibility for prescribing and monitoring an exercise programme tailored to the needs of the patient. This paper examines the cost-effectiveness of ERS in promoting physical activity compared with usual care in primary care setting. Methods A decision analytic model was developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of ERS from a UK NHS perspective. The costs and outcomes of ERS were modelled over the patient's lifetime. Data were derived from a systematic review of the literature on the clinical and cost-effectiveness of ERS, and on parameter inputs in the modelling framework. Outcomes were expressed as incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses investigated the impact of varying ERS cost and effectiveness assumptions. Sub-group analyses explored the cost-effectiveness of ERS in sedentary people with an underlying condition. Results Compared with usual care, the mean incremental lifetime cost per patient for ERS was £169 and the mean incremental QALY was 0.008, generating a base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for ERS at £20,876 per QALY in sedentary individuals without a diagnosed medical condition. There was a 51% probability that ERS was cost-effective at £20,000 per QALY and 88% probability that ERS was cost-effective at £30,000 per QALY. In sub-group analyses, cost per QALY for ERS in sedentary obese individuals was £14,618, and in sedentary hypertensives and sedentary individuals with depression the estimated cost per QALY was £12,834 and £8,414 respectively. Incremental lifetime costs and benefits associated with ERS were small, reflecting the preventative public health context of the intervention, with this resulting in estimates of cost-effectiveness that are sensitive to variations in the relative risk of becoming physically active and cost of ERS. Conclusions ERS is associated with modest increase in lifetime costs and benefits. The cost-effectiveness of ERS is highly sensitive to small changes in the effectiveness and cost of ERS and is subject to some significant uncertainty mainly due to limitations in the clinical effectiveness evidence base.

Location and scale mixtures of Gaussians with flexible tail behaviour: Properties, inference and application to multivariate clustering

The family of location and scale mixtures of Gaussians has the ability to generate a number of flexible distributional forms. The family nests as particular cases several important asymmetric distributions like the Generalized Hyperbolic distribution. The Generalized Hyperbolic distribution in turn nests many other well known distributions such as the Normal Inverse Gaussian. In a multivariate setting, an extension of the standard location and scale mixture concept is proposed into a so called multiple scaled framework which has the advantage of allowing different tail and skewness behaviours in each dimension with arbitrary correlation between dimensions. Estimation of the parameters is provided via an EM algorithm and extended to cover the case of mixtures of such multiple scaled distributions for application to clustering. Assessments on simulated and real data confirm the gain in degrees of freedom and flexibility in modelling data of varying tail behaviour and directional shape.

Morphological changes in the conjunctiva, episclera and sclera following short-term miniscleral contact lens wear in rigid lens neophytes

PURPOSE To quantify the influence of short-term wear of miniscleral contact lenses on the morphology of the corneo-scleral limbus, the conjunctiva, episclera and sclera. METHODS OCT images of the anterior eye were captured before, immediately following 3h of wear and then 3h after removal of a miniscleral contact lens for 10 young (27±5 years) healthy participants (neophyte rigid lens wearers). The region of analysis encompassed 1mm anterior, to 3.5mm posterior to the scleral spur. Natural diurnal variations in thickness were measured on a separate day and compensated for in subsequent analyses. RESULTS Following 3h of lens wear, statistically significant tissue thinning was observed across all quadrants, with a mean decrease in thickness of -24.1±3.6μm (p<0.001), which diminished, but did not return to baseline 3h after lens removal (-16.9±1.9μm, p<0.001). The largest tissue compression was observed in the superior quadrant (-49.9±8.5μm, p<0.01) and in the annular zone 1.5mm from the scleral spur (-48.2±5.7μm), corresponding to the approximate edge of the lens landing zone. Compression of the conjunctiva/episclera accounted for about 70% of the changes. CONCLUSIONS Optimal fitting miniscleral contact lenses worn for three hours resulted in significant tissue compression in young healthy eyes, with the greatest thinning observed superiorly, potentially due to the additional force of the eyelid, with a partial recovery of compression 3h after lens removal. Most of the morphological changes occur in the conjunctiva/episclera layers.

Psychometric properties of the DCDDaily-Q: A new parental questionnaire on children's performance in activities of daily living

Difficulties in the performance of activities of daily living (ADL) are a key feature of developmental coordination disorder (DCD). The DCDDaily-Q was developed to address children's motor performance in a comprehensive range ADL. The aim of this study was to investigate the psychometric properties of this parental questionnaire. Parents of 218 five to eight year-old children (DCD group: N=25; reference group: N=193) completed the research version of the new DCDDaily-Q and the Movement Assessment Battery for Children-2 (MABC2) Checklist and Developmental Coordination Disorder Questionnaire (DCDQ). Children were assessed with the MABC2 and DCDDaily. Item reduction analyses were performed and reliability (internal consistency and factor structure) and concurrent, discriminant, and incremental validity of the DCDDaily-Q were investigated. The final version of the DCDDaily-Q comprises 23 items that cover three underlying factors and shows good internal consistency (Cronbach's α>.80). Moderate correlations were found between the DCDDaily-Q and the other instruments used (p<.001 for the reference group; p>.05 for the DCD group). Discriminant validity of the DCDDaily-Q was good for DCDDaily-Q total scores (p<.001) and all 23 item scores (p<.01), indicating poorer performance in the DCD group. Sensitivity (88%) and specificity (92%) were good. The DCDDaily-Q better predicted DCD than currently used questionnaires (R2=.88). In conclusion, the DCDDaily-Q is a valid and reliable questionnaire to address children's ADL performance.

Starch composites with aconitic acid

The aim of this project is to examine the effectiveness of using aconitic acid (AcA), a tricarboxylic acid which contains a carbon/carbon double bond (C=C), to enhance the properties of starch-based films. Starch/glycerol cast films were prepared with 0, 2, 5, 10 and 15 wt% AcA (starch wt% basis) and the properties analysed. It was shown that AcA acted as both a cross-linking agent and also a strong plasticising agent. The 5 wt% AcA derived starch films were the most effectively cross-linked having the lowest solubility (28 wt%) and decreased swelling coefficient (35 vol.%) by approximately 3 times and 2.4 times respectively compared to the control film submerged in water (23 °C). There was also a significant increase in the film elongation at break by approximately 35 times (compared to the control) with the addition of 15 wt% AcA, emphasising the plasticising effect of AcA. However, generally there was a reduced tensile strength, softening of the film, and reduced thermal stability with increased amounts of AcA.

Distinct subpopulations of gamma delta T cells are present in normal and tumor-bearing human liver

Gamma delta T cells are thought to mediate immune responses at epithelial surfaces. We have quantified and characterized hepatic and peripheral blood gamma delta T cells from 11 normal and 13 unresolved tumor-bearing human liver specimens. gamma delta T cells are enriched in normal liver (6.6% of T cells) relative to matched blood (0.9%; P = 0.008). The majority express CD4(-)CD8(-) phenotypes and many express CD56 and/or CD161. In vitro, hepatic gamma delta T cells can be induced to kill tumor cell lines and release interferon-gamma, tumor necrosis factor-alpha, interleukin-2 and interleukin-4. Analysis of V gamma and V delta chain usage indicated that V delta 3(+) cells are expanded in normal livers (21.2% of gamma delta T cells) compared to blood (0.5%; P = 0.001). Tumor-bearing livers had significant expansions and depletions of gamma delta T cell subsets but normal cytolytic activity. This study identifies novel populations of liver T cells that may play a role in immunity against tumors.

Revocation and update of trust in autonomous delay tolerant networks

A Delay Tolerant Network (DTN) is a dynamic, fragmented, and ephemeral network formed by a large number of highly mobile nodes. DTNs are ephemeral networks with highly mobile autonomous nodes. This requires distributed and self-organised approaches to trust management. Revocation and replacement of security credentials under adversarial influence by preserving the trust on the entity is still an open problem. Existing methods are mostly limited to detection and removal of malicious nodes. This paper makes use of the mobility property to provide a distributed, self-organising, and scalable revocation and replacement scheme. The proposed scheme effectively utilises the Leverage of Common Friends (LCF) trust system concepts to revoke compromised security credentials, replace them with new ones, whilst preserving the trust on them. The level of achieved entity confidence is thereby preserved. Security and performance of the proposed scheme is evaluated using an experimental data set in comparison with other schemes based around the LCF concept. Our extensive experimental results show that the proposed scheme distributes replacement credentials up to 35% faster and spreads spoofed credentials of strong collaborating adversaries up to 50% slower without causing any significant increase on the communication and storage overheads, when compared to other LCF based schemes.

Data-aware task scheduling for all-to-all comparison problems in heterogeneous distributed systems

Solving large-scale all-to-all comparison problems using distributed computing is increasingly significant for various applications. Previous efforts to implement distributed all-to-all comparison frameworks have treated the two phases of data distribution and comparison task scheduling separately. This leads to high storage demands as well as poor data locality for the comparison tasks, thus creating a need to redistribute the data at runtime. Furthermore, most previous methods have been developed for homogeneous computing environments, so their overall performance is degraded even further when they are used in heterogeneous distributed systems. To tackle these challenges, this paper presents a data-aware task scheduling approach for solving all-to-all comparison problems in heterogeneous distributed systems. The approach formulates the requirements for data distribution and comparison task scheduling simultaneously as a constrained optimization problem. Then, metaheuristic data pre-scheduling and dynamic task scheduling strategies are developed along with an algorithmic implementation to solve the problem. The approach provides perfect data locality for all comparison tasks, avoiding rearrangement of data at runtime. It achieves load balancing among heterogeneous computing nodes, thus enhancing the overall computation time. It also reduces data storage requirements across the network. The effectiveness of the approach is demonstrated through experimental studies.

HER2 positive gastric and gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma; An Irish tertiary center experience

Background: Trastuzumab has been approved for patients with human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) over expression and gene amplification metastatic gastric cancer. Here we present the prevalence of HER2 positive gastric cancer in an Irish population, the use of Trastuzumab in first line and beyond progression. Methods: The study was conducted in St James's Hospital, Dublin. A retrospective analysis of the date of patients with HER2 positive gastric cancer over a period of 3 years was carried out. Her2 positive was defined as immunohistochemistry (IHC) score of +3, of IHC score of +2 and increased gene copy number by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH). Overall survival was calculated from the day of initiation of treatment with Trastuzumab until death. Results: During the study period 140 patients with gastric and gastro-esophageal junction adenocarcinoma were treated. Out of those, 30 (21.4%) had HER2 positive disease. Among HER2 positive disease patients 18 (12.8%) were treated with first line Trastuzumab containing regimen with a median overall survival of 13 months. Nine (50%) developed progressive disease while on Trastuzumab and of those, 4 (22.2%) patients continued on Trastuzumab beyond progression, two (11.1%) of whom achieved stable disease and a prolonged survival. Conclusion: HER2 positivity rate in an Irish population with advanced gastric and gastro-esophageal junction adenocarcinoma is 21.4%. Treatment with Trastuzumab in the first line in combination with chemotherapy is a reasonable approach. Continuation of Trastuzumab beyond progression is a feasible strategy that requires further exploration.

The channels of monetary policy triggered by central bank actions and statements in the Australian equity market

Owing to the discrete disclosure practices of the Reserve Bank of Australia, this paper provides new evidence on the channels of monetary policy triggered by central bank actions (monetary policy announcements) and statements (explanatory minutes releases), in the Australian equity market. Both monetary policy announcements and explanatory minutes releases are shown to have a significant and comparable impact on the returns and volatility of the Australian equity market. Further, distinct from US and European studies that find strong evidence of the interest rate, bank loan and balance sheet channels and no evidence of the exchange rate channel following central bank actions, this paper finds that monetary policy impacts the Australian equity market via the exchange rate, interest rate and bank loan channels of monetary policy, with only weak evidence of the balance sheet channel of monetary policy. These channels are found to be operating irrespective of the trigger (monetary policy announcements or explanatory minutes releases), though results are somewhat weaker when examining the explanatory minutes releases. These results have important implications for central bank officials and financial market participants alike: by confirming a comparable avenue to affect monetary policy; and providing an explication of its impact on the Australian equity market.

Long-term effects of physical activity level on changes in healthy body mass index over 12 years in young adult women

Objectives To examine the effects of overall level and timing of physical activity (PA) on changes from a healthy body mass index (BMI) category over 12 years in young adult women. Patients and Methods Participants in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health (younger cohort, born 1973-1978) completed surveys between 2000 (age 22-27 years) and 2012 (age 34-39 years). Physical activity was measured in 2000, 2003, 2006, and 2009 and was categorized as very low, low, active, or very active at each survey, and a cumulative PA score for this 9-year period was created. Logistic regression was used to examine relationships between PA accumulated across all surveys (cumulative PA model) and PA at each survey (critical periods PA model), with change in BMI category (from healthy to overweight or healthy to obese) from 2000 to 2012. Results In women with a healthy BMI in 2000, there were clear dose-response relationships between accumulated PA and transition to overweight (P=.03) and obesity (P<.01) between 2000 and 2012. The critical periods analysis indicated that very active levels of PA at the 2006 survey (when the women were 28-33 years old) and active or very active PA at the 2009 survey (age 31-36 years) were most protective against transitioning to overweight and obesity. Conclusion These findings confirm that maintenance of very high PA levels throughout young adulthood will significantly reduce the risk of becoming overweight or obese. There seems to be a critical period for maintaining high levels of activity at the life stage when many women face competing demands of caring for infants and young children.